May 2006 Build-up to Taep'o-dong-2C/3 Satellite Launch.
06-17-06, Updated 06-19-06
By © C. P. Vick, All Rights Reserved 2006
The fact that no launch took place on the 18th of June and none is expected on the 19thof June 2006 according to reported Japanese officials’ remarks suggest that both the propellants have not been loaded or that some political policy and or technical problems have interrupted the final launch operations for an unknown amount of time. Early expectations of the launch attempt appeared to be premature for a prototype launch preparation operation based on world demonstrated practices. If this launch does not occur within the next few weeks then it must be assumed that some political policy and or technical issue have scrubbed this attempt for some unknown period.
Previously this web site has reported that the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 launch was expected soon because of both the engineering progress subtly identified from both static test firings, launch site additions and the flight test of the No-dong-B on January 17th 2006 out of Iran for both North Korea and Iran . For further information see; http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/missile-development.htm as well as from http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-b.htm and the No-dong-B test flight http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2006/cpvick-no-dong-b_2006.htm It also provided Iran with the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 technology base. This January 17th 2006 test firing of the No-dong-B confirmed the end the North Korean long range ballistic missile self-imposed testing moratorium from 1999 through 2003 that was continued until March 2005. This is when North Korea declared it was no longer bound by its self-imposed moratorium. It took place in the context of being near the end of what has now turned out to be part of a seven year research and development cycle dropping the original derivations of the Taep’o-dong-2 design culminating in a flight test to orbit for the new higher performance prototype Taep’o-dong-2C/3 and its satellite payload. The highly successful No-dong-B operational deployed test flight out of Iran successfully demonstrated the performance of the totally redesigned Taep’o-dong-2C/3 second stage as well as the common propulsion system used in the first stage different from the Taep’o-dong-2 original conceptual satellite space booster, intercontinental ballistic missile launch vehicle design. In retrospect this appears to have been the real purpose of the North Korean so called self-imposed testing moratorium to buy time to develop this better performance launch vehicle design with no intentions of doing otherwise. The moratorium was a successful shell game on the World stage with all of its implications.
The expected possible orbital test launch of the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 is predicted for as early as Sunday or Monday Asian time May 18 th. or 19th 2006 or during the following weeks according to published reports. The morning of the 19thof June 2006 has shown no launch attempt and none is expected today. The earliest published reports on the suggestion that North Korea may flight test it new larger Taep’o-dong-2, 3 class booster were around May 19th 2006 . North Korea is notorious for deploying early development weapons system in the field like the former Soviet Union to work the systems problems out as was observed for the No-dong-B deployment in 2003, 2004 before flight testing it as an operational system. Such confidence in weapons systems performance reliability can only be based on a through under ground, ground testing regime but by Western standards this is a very different way of doing such business successfully
Based on the observed trends the North Korea regime is clearly determined to use its strategic launch vehicles and the associated weapons systems they carry as the instrument of State Policy leaving little room to hope that the North Korea ’s leadership will change its end game survival plans to the world’s desires. North Korea suggested on the 18ththat its people should raise the North Korean (DPRK) flag and stay tuned to their radio’s and TV’s for an announcement from the State media around 5:00 GMT perhaps related to the up coming launch vehicle flight. Ultimately nothing appeared that was directly associated with the expected attempted launch except to strongly reiterate its attempt to continue to emphasize its strategic nuclear deterrents the limited back bone of their State Policy.
Apparently a open source Japanese commercial ground station for an American earth imagery commercial satellite (Japanese digital Globe or Japanese GOI) as early as May 6th or 11th 2006 caught the North Korean missile teams arrival with its road mobile booster stages and payload tarp covered transport trailers and tractor truck in the vicinity of the 54 meter long MIK horizontal assembly ready testing building near the North Korean Taep’o-dong-2C/3 Musudan-ri (No-dong/Taep’o-dong) launch site.
By May 17ththe signs of the initial vehicles personnel activity seemed to have disappeared except for the two trucks one near the assembly building and one parked near the two parked erectors on the No-dong-A pad. It appeared that on or before May 17ththe booster’s first two stages had been installed on the 2.0 meter inside diameter raised pad that can accommodate the 2.2 meter diameter 107,400 kg thrust booster first stage.
This is probably when the so called fall away equipment test was observed by intelligence sources and methods. What they observed was probably the erectors being removed from the pad area while the umbilical fall away pull test are normal non destruct pre launch testing before propellant loading. North Korean missile military technicians would also carry out propellant tank pressurization and the feed lines umbilical test to check their integrity before propellant loading. These tests are among many basic kinds of quality control test done before a launch. This all would have been preceded by total electronic systems integration testing earlier in the weeks.
Based on open press reports the intelligence operations have been carried out by a US and Japanese and South Korean allied assets such as the three to six available USAF, U-2 spy plane or space based U.S. KH-12 and Japanese imaging observation satellites and HUMINT sources and methods assets. SIGINT monitoring has been reported via ship based and RC-135 radar aircraft among others known. SIGINT has clearly been picking up the testing as it is conducted otherwise these press reports would not be appearing with the detail as they have. The new ship based and mobile land based SIGINT, RADINT assets have been based there in Japan and South Korea for some years now. Japan has deployed two Aegis destroyers in the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Japan according to published reports.
The square dolly observed in imagery outside the MIK horizontal assemble ready building was for the encapsulated satellite payload fairing and third stage payload which were hoisted and stacked by the gantry umbilical tower crane. It remains unclear whether the satellite payload has been stacked on top of the booster assemblage but this analyst thinks it has based on other reports that say the stack is completely assembled with the military technicians continuing preparatory work in the total infrastructure. Prior to this the second stage was erected and hoisted for stacking on top of the first stage by the gantry umbilical tower crane.
The reported ten propellant and gases loading trucks arrived on site as of June 16th. The launch vehicle propellant loading was apparently completed during the June 17th. - 18th 2006 period. At least eight of those tractor truck tanker vehicles are evenly divided between highly toxic, corrosive, hypergolic UDMH and IRFNA propellants while the other two tanker trucks are presumably the liquid nitrogen and liquid helium gas tankers. Launch vehicle propellant loading should have taken twelve hours or so with the underground reservoirs storage tanks being filled first. Those tanks would have the capability to maintain both the proper cooled temperatures as well as regularly stirring those propellants to prevent them from breaking down chemically which starts to occur with in two days if they remain undisturbed. They are used to pumping them into the launch vehicle and top off the tanks for the final launch preparation.
The unknown question is however whether the underground tanks were filled first for launch vehicle loading which is normal safe practice or was the propellant pumped on board the launch vehicle directly from the series of four fuel and four oxidizer tanker trucks? These tankers would be arranged in series parallel plumbing groups of four on two different sides of the launch pad for such a loading operation for either the underground tanks filling or the loading of the booster tanks. Launch time is probably less than twenty four hours away our time in the US based on this operation if the propellants have been loaded on the launch vehicle. With the completion of the propellants loading operation this launch is essentially committed to flight for all practical purposes because reversing the operations to drain the tanks and lines and clean them is a very dangerous arduous process. Exposing the booster tanks propellant lines and engines to these propellants for long periods can be dangerously destructive unless the proper materials and seals are used extensively through out the systems. If the tanks were indeed loaded with propellants over the early weekend then the two day limit without stirring then has past with no launch expected on June 19thaccording to Japanese official’s reports.
This brings into serious question whether the launch vehicle tanks were indeed loaded with propellants in the early part of the weekend. The propellants are normally loaded with inhibitors and the exposed surfaces in the lines, tanks and pumps are also lined with protective coating that can last quite a while in a storage state. This then would seen to indicate just how advanced the North Korean propellant storage technologies are for this launch vehicle and its supporting infrastructure. At this juncture there are clearly some unknowns that only time will resolve the answers through intelligence sources and methods.
The May 24thimages confirmed the long expected introduction of the environmental curtains added to the gantry service levels totally enclosing the vehicle on the pad from view from the top of the gantry to the bottom pad area. In all previous imagery the gantry umbilical towers twelve service levels were plainly visible with no identifiable curtains.
Several years ago when North Korea opened a exhibit of a mock up of its original satellite at its science museum it also displayed a communication satellite mock up that was said to be several years from launching. This satellite is assumed to be the payload of this first attempted Taep’o-dong-2C/3 launch. In any case we shall have to wait to see what will happen in the coming days if anything. The fact that the launch site is above ground exposed where a very great deal can be observed certainly holds that this is a satellite launch attempt not a strategic ballistic missile operation. If the launch were to occur from a coffin launch site or a large silo facility then it would be an easily recognizable strategic systems test. A true full range ICBM flight test is not at this time expected out of North Korea . There is very little difference between an ICBM and a satellite launch vehicle test since the delivery transport system is being commonly demonstrated.
This test launch characteristics presumably will probably exhibit that it has the capability to travel between 8,000 and 12,000 kilometers with a 650 kilogram nuclear payload. It the payload was in the 250 kilogram range its capability would be in the 15,000 kilometer range but that is not expected for some years to go. North Korea is presumed to have both 1,000 kg and 650 kilogram first and second generation nuclear weapons one of which whose design apparently circumstantially may have been tested in Pakistan .
cpv
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