DATE=12/23/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38522
TITLE=SOUTH KOREA - NORTH KOREA
BYLINE=ROGER WILKISON
DATELINE=BEIJING
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A DAY AFTER BEING ELECTED PRESIDENT OF SOUTH KOREA, KIM
DAE-JUNG SAID HE FAVORS A SUMMIT WITH NORTH KOREA AND WILL GIVE
PRIORITY TO A DIRECT DIALOGUE WITH HIS COUNTRY'S COMMUNIST
NEIGHBOR. BUT, AS V-O-A'S ROGER WILKISON REPORTS, SOUTH KOREA'S
ECONOMIC CRISIS IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH ITS ABILITY TO BACK UP ANY
DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE WITH AID AND INVESTMENT FUNDS.
TEXT: DESPITE THEIR MUTUAL ANIMOSITY, SOUTH KOREA HAD BEEN
PLANNING TO SEND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN AID AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT TO NORTH KOREA, IN EXCHANGE FOR A MORE OPEN AND LESS
HOSTILE ATTITUDE ON THE PART OF PYONGYANG. BUT DIPLOMATS AND
OTHER ANALYSTS IN SEOUL AND BEIJING SAY THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC
CRISIS NOW RULES OUT ANYTHING OF THE KIND.
SOUTH KOREA NEEDS ALL ITS RESOURCES TO AVOID BANKRUPTCY, DESPITE
A 57-BILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT LED BY THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY
FUND. SOUTH KOREAN CORPORATIONS ARE BUSY TRIMMING BACK ON COSTS
AND INVESTMENTS TO AVERT COLLAPSE, INSTEAD OF LOOKING TO EXPAND
TO THE NORTH AS THEY WERE ONLY THREE MONTHS AGO.
THE FOUR-PARTY PEACE TALKS BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA, CHINA
AND THE UNITED STATES THAT GOT UNDERWAY IN GENEVA TWO WEEKS AGO
WOULD ORDINARILY BE FRONT-PAGE NEWS IN SEOUL. BUT THE MEETING
WAS COMPLETELY OVERSHADOWED BY THE FREE FALL IN SOUTH KOREA'S
CURRENCY AND STOCK MARKETS. ALTHOUGH PROGRESS AT THE TALKS WAS
MINIMAL, DIPLOMATS ARE HAPPY THAT NORTH KOREA AT LEAST SHOWED UP.
DIPLOMATS SAY THE LONG-TERM GOAL OF KOREAN REUNIFICATION HAS ALSO
PROBABLY BEEN SET BACK A NUMBER OF YEARS. SOUTH KOREAN NATIONAL
UNIFICATION BOARD SPOKESMAN KIM YOUNG-MIN SAYS THAT FIRST, A
PERMANENT PEACE AGREEMENT HAS TO REPLACE THE CEASEFIRE THAT HAS
EXISTED ALONG THE COLD WAR'S LAST FRONTIER FOR THE PAST 44 YEARS.
/////KIM ACT/////
UNIFICATION IS IMPORTANT AND OUR ULTIMATE GOAL. PEACE IS THE
PREREQUISITE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TOWARD UNIFICATION. SO
REGARDLESS OF THE TIME SCHEDULE, IT IS THE ABSOLUTE TASK WHICH
SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE THE ATTEMPT AT UNIFICATION.
/////END ACT/////
DIPLOMATS SAY NEITHER OF THE TWO KOREA'S IS IN ANY HURRY FOR
REUNIFICATION. THEY SAY BOTH SIDES HAVE RECOILED IN HORROR AT
THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE -- THE NORTH KOREANS BECAUSE THEY SAW EAST
GERMANY'S FORMER COMMUNIST LEADERS GO ON TRIAL, AND THE SOUTH
KOREANS BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS COST INVOLVED. UNIFICATION
BOARD SPOKESMAN KIM YOUNG-MIN SAYS THE GERMAN CASE SHOWS
REUNIFICATION IS NOT EASY.
/////KIM ACT TWO/////
WE HAVE LEARNED QUITE A PRECIOUS LESSON FROM THE GERMAN
UNIFICATION CASE, AND WE WITNESSED THAT...THE POSITIVE EFFECT OF
UNIFICATION IS QUITE COSTLY AND SOMETIMES PAINFUL.
/////END ACT/////
NORTH KOREA HAS STILL NOT RESPONDED TO PRESIDENT-ELECT KIM'S
PROPOSAL. ALTHOUGH SOME ANALYSTS BELIEVE IT CREATES NEW
POSSIBILITIES FOR BUILDING MUTUAL TRUST, OTHERS SAY NORTH KOREA
IS SO UNPREDICTABLE THAT --EVEN IF A THAW COMES--IT MAY TAKE A
LONG TIME TO DEVELOP.
SUH JAE-JEAN, A RESEARCH ASSOCIATE AT SEOUL'S
GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED NATIONAL UNIFICATION INSTITUTE, IS ONE OF
THE SKEPTICS. HE BELIEVES NORTH KOREA IS NOT READY FOR SERIOUS
PEACE TALKS BECAUSE ITS GOVERNMENT NEEDS THE IMAGE OF AN ENEMY IN
THE SOUTH TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER ITS OWN PEOPLE.
/////SUH ACT/////
IF NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA START TO DISCUSS THE PEACE MEASURES,
THE PEACE FRAMEWORK ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA, I THINK NORTH KOREA
WILL LOSE THE ISSUES IT NEEDS FOR SOCIAL CONTROL IN NORTH KOREA.
/////END ACT/////
NORTH KOREA HAS ITS OWN DEEP-SEATED CRISIS, STEMMING FROM THREE
YEARS OF NATURAL DISASTERS COMBINED WITH MISMANAGEMENT OF ITS
COLLECTIVE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM. DIPLOMATS IN SEOUL AND BEIJING
ESTIMATE THAT HALF A MILLION PEOPLE HAVE DIED THERE FROM CAUSES
RELATED TO LACK OF FOOD.
RED CROSS OFFICIALS FROM BOTH KOREA'S ARE IN BEIJING THIS WEEK
DISCUSSING FURTHER FOOD AID FOR THE NORTH, BUT A GOVERNMENT
OFFICIAL IN SEOUL ACKNOWLEDGES THAT THE ECONOMIC CRISIS IN HIS
COUNTRY WILL HAVE, WHAT HE CALLED, AN INFLUENCE ON SOUTH KOREA'S
ABILITY TO AID ITS COMMUNIST NEIGHBOR. (SIGNED)
NEB/RW/FC
23-Dec-97 12:36 AM EST (0536 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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