DATE= 10/6/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37710
TITLE=NORTH KOREA SITUATION
BYLINE=ROGER WILKISON
DATELINE=BEIJING
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT NORTH KOREA IS PREPARING
TO ANOINT ITS DE FACTO LEADER, KIM JONG-IL, AS HEAD OF THE RULING
WORKERS' PARTY, LATER THIS MONTH. V-O-A'S ROGER WILKISON
REPORTS FROM BEIJING THAT FORMAL CEREMONIES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE
PLACE DESPITE THE COUNTRY'S SEVERE FOOD PROBLEMS.
TEXT: RETURNING TO BEIJING SUNDAY FROM A FIVE-DAY TRIP TO NORTH
KOREA, A SENIOR UNITED NATIONS OFFICIAL SAID HE SAW CLEAR
EVIDENCE THAT THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT IS PREPARING FOR KIM
JONG-IL'S FORMAL ASSUMPTION OF POWER. NAMANGA NGONGI, DEPUTY
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM, SAID THERE IS
ANTICIPATION IN PYONGYANG THAT MR. KIM WILL SOON TAKE OVER ONE OF
THE TOP POSTS HELD BY HIS LATE FATHER, KIM IL-SUNG, WHO DIED
THREE YEARS AGO. KIM JONG-IL IS ALREADY THE HEAD OF THE ARMY,
BUT HE HAS NOT ASSUMED THE JOBS OF PARTY CHIEF OR HEAD OF STATE,
IN WHAT COULD BECOME THE COMMUNIST WORLD'S FIRST DYNASTIC
SUCCESSION.
MR. NGONGI'S REMARKS TO REPORTERS IN BEIJING CAME AFTER A RUSSIAN
COMMUNIST, OLEG SHENIN,WAS QUOTED BY THE TASS NEWS AGENCY AS
SAYING HE MET WITH THE SECRETIVE NORTH KOREAN LEADER LAST MONTH.
CONFIRMING THE EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERN DIPLOMATS, MR. SHENIN TOLD
TASS THAT MR. KIM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPREME PARTY CHIEF ON
OCTOBER 10TH, THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE PARTY'S FOUNDING.
THE NORTH KOREAN MEDIA HAVE BEEN REPORTING THAT LOCAL COMMUNIST
PARTY CADRES AND THE NATION'S POWERFUL MILITARY HAVE ENDORSED MR.
KIM AS PARTY LEADER. THE MEDIA HAVE ALSO REPORTED THAT
MYSTERIOUS EVENTS -- SUCH AS THE BLOOMING OF FRUIT TREES IN
AUTUMN AND FISHERMEN CATCHING A RARE WHITE SEA CUCUMBER --
SIGNIFY THAT THE TIMES ARE AUSPICIOUS FOR MR. KIM'S SELECTION AS
THE COUNTRY'S OFFICIAL LEADER.
FLOWERS MAY BE BLOOMING, BUT FAR TOO LITTLE FOOD IS GROWING IN
NORTH KOREA, DUE TO A TWO-YEAR PERIOD MARKED BY FLOODS AND
DROUGHT. MR. SHENIN SAID HE DID NOT SEE ANY ACUTE FOOD SHORTAGES
DURING HIS THREE WEEKS IN NORTH KOREA. BUT HE SAID MR. KIM
ACKNOWLEDGED HIS COUNTRY HAS FOOD PROBLEMS.
NORTH KOREAN MEDIA HAVE VIRULENTLY DENIED REPORTS LAST WEEK IN
HONG KONG'S SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST (NEWSPAPER) THAT UP TO ONE
MILLION PEOPLE MAY HAVE DIED FROM STARVATION. THE REPORTS WERE
BASED ON INTERVIEWS WITH NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES AND ETHNIC KOREAN
CHINESE TRAVELERS INTO THE HERMIT STATE.
THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM'S MR. NGONGI SAID THE FOOD SITUATION IN
NORTH KOREA IS STILL SERIOUS BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVEL OF
DESPERATION PORTRAYED IN THE NEWS REPORTS. HE SAID INTERNATIONAL
FOOD AID HAS STAVED OFF CATASTROPHE, AT LEAST FOR NOW.
/////NGONGI ACT ONE/////
IN A NUTSHELL, I WOULD SAY THAT THE FOOD AID HAS REALLY MADE A
DIFFERENCE. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS RESPONDED VERY
GENEROUSLY AND THE FOOD HAS BEEN DISTRIBUTED. IT HAS REACHED
THE BENEFICIARIES. AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER THAT THE
FOOD HAS BEEN DIVERTED BY THE GOVERNMENT.
/////END ACT/////
BUT MR. NGONGI SAID NORTH KOREA WILL NEED TWICE AS MUCH
ASSISTANCE NEXT YEAR BECAUSE IT WILL HAVE A FOOD SHORTFALL OF
BETWEEN TWO MILLION AND TWO AND A HALF MILLION TONS, AFTER THE
CURRENT HARVEST, COMPARED TO A ONE-POINT THREE MILLION TON
SHORTFALL THIS YEAR.
HE ALSO SAID HE HAD ASKED NORTH KOREAN OFFICIALS TO ALLOW
INTERNATIONAL AID MISSIONS TO TRAVEL FREELY THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTRY TO CLEAR UP DISCREPANCIES ABOUT THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS.
/////NGONGI ACT TWO/////
IF PEOPLE WERE ABLE TO GO THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, YOU COULD HAVE
A MORE BALANCED VIEW. IF YOU ARE ONLY LOCATED IN A SMALL
COMMUNITY IN WHICH THERE HAVE BEEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEATHS
AND YOU EXTRAPOLATE THROUGHOUT THE POPULATION, YOU COULD PROBABLY
HAVE VERY SKEWED FIGURES.
/////END ACT/////
MR. NGONGI WAS REFERRING TO A SURVEY CONDUCTED LAST MONTH BY THE
U-S PRIVATE RELIEF GROUP, WORLD VISION, AMONG NORTH KOREANS IN
CHINA. THE SURVEY ESTIMATED THAT ANYWHERE FROM HALF A MILLION TO
THREE MILLION PEOPLE COULD HAVE DIED FROM STARVATION. WITHOUT
DISMISSING THOSE FIGURES ALTOGETHER, HE MADE CLEAR HE DOES NOT
BELIEVE THERE HAS BEEN MASS STARVATION. MR. NGONGI SAID HE DOES
NOT KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE DIED SO FAR OR HOW MANY MORE COULD
DIE THIS WINTER. (SIGNED)
NEB/RW/FC
06-Oct-97 4:23 AM EDT (0823 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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