DATE= 10/9/97
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-221028
TITLE=N. KOREA / KIM PROSPECTS (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=KATE WILTROUT
DATELINE=SEOUL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: SOME EXPERTS ON NORTH KOREA ARE SAYING THAT NORTH KOREAN
LEADER KIM JONG-IL'S NEW ROLE AS THE GENERAL-SECRETARY OF THE
WORKERS PARTY MAY MAKE THE POSSIBILITY OF REFORM IN THE TROUBLED
SOCIALIST STATE EVEN MORE REMOTE. KATE WILTROUT REPORTS FROM
SEOUL THAT OBSERVERS IN SOUTH KOREA EXPECT LITTLE TO CHANGE NOW
THAT MR. KIM HAS GAINED HIS LATE FATHER'S PARTY POST.
TEXT: THE CHIEF NORTH KOREA ANALYST AT THE KOREA INSTITUTE OF
NATIONAL REUNIFICATION, SUH JAE-JEAN, SAYS HE DOES NOT EXPECT
ANY POLICY CHANGES AFTER MR. KIM IS INAUGURATED. KIM JONG-IL HAS
BEEN THE DE-FACTO LEADER OF NORTH KOREA SINCE HIS FATHER'S DEATH
THREE YEARS AGO. HIS ELECTION TO THE TOP COMMUNIST PARTY POST
WAS ANNOUNCED WEDNESDAY.
NORTH KOREA HAS EXPERIENCED NEGATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR SEVEN
STRAIGHT YEARS. THE SOUTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES THE NORTH
WILL BE TWO MILLION TONS SHORT OF FOOD THIS YEAR, FOR ITS
STARVING POPULATION.
SOME ANALYSTS SAY THAT ASSUMING FORMAL LEADERSHIP OF THE PARTY
MAY GIVE MR. KIM MORE POWER TO EFFECT CHANGE. THEY ANTICIPATE
HE MAY TRY TO OPEN UP THE NORTH'S ECONOMY, LONG STUNTED BY THE
NATION'S POLICY OF SELF-RELIANCE.
BUT MR. SUH -- WHO WORKS FOR A STATE-FUNDED THINK TANK AND
REFLECTS THE VIEW OF MANY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS -- SAYS THAT
FOLLOWING IN HIS FATHER'S FOOTSTEPS AS PARTY HEAD LIMITS MR. KIM
HISTORICALLY AND PERSONALLY. THE LEADERSHIP SUCCESSION MAKES IT
DIFFICULT FOR MR. KIM TO CRITICIZE PREVIOUS POLICIES OR
OTHERWISE TARNISH HIS FATHER'S LEGACY.
MR. SUH SAYS KIM IL JONG IS NOT IN A POSITION TO BEGIN REFORMS
AND THAT IT WILL TAKE NEW NORTH KOREAN LEADERSHIP TO DEAL WITH
THE COUNTRY'S MASSIVE PROBLEMS.
SOUTH KOREAN FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIALS SAY THEY EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN NORTH KOREA'S ECONOMIC, MILITARY OR DIPLOMATIC
POLICIES. BUT NATIONAL UNIFICATION MINISTER KWON O-KIE HAS
EXPRESSED HOPE FOR INTERNAL CHANGE. COMMENTING ON MR. KIM'S
APPOINTMENT, MR. KWON SAID HE HOPES THAT NORTH KOREA WILL TAKE
STEPS TO, IN HIS WORDS, RE-ESTABLISH STABILITY AND WORK TOWARD
REAL CHANGE.
BUT THE CONSENSUS OF MOST EXPERTS HERE IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
FUNDAMENTAL POLICY CHANGES OR ANNOUNCEMENTS, SOON. AS POLITICAL
ANALYST SUH JAE-JEAN PUTS IT, ANY INTERNAL REFORM WILL BE "VERY
VERY LIMITED" AND COME **VERY VERY SLOWLY.'' HE SAYS THE
REUNIFICATION INSTITUTE WILL BE WATCHING MR. KIM'S MOVES CLOSELY
PAYING SPECIAL ATTENTION TO ANY SPEECHES HE MAY MAKE IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS. (SIGNED)
NEB/KW/FC/EH
09-Oct-97 5:09 AM EDT (0909 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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