DATE=08/11/97
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-10292
TITLE=KOREA'S NEWS:FAMINE WORSENS BUT PEACE TALKS BEGIN
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
[EDITORS: FOR SERVICES DESIRING ADDITIONAL MATERIAL, PLEASE SEE
THE ORLANDO SENTINEL EDITORIAL IN TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST
6-10291 WHICH HAS MOVED]
INTRO: THERE WAS SOME MILD GOOD NEWS FROM THE TROUBLED KOREAN
PENINSULA LAST WEEK, IN THAT PRELIMINARY, FOUR-PARTY
PEACE TALKS GOT UNDER WAY IN NEW YORK INVOLVING THE TWO
KOREAS, CHINA AND THE U-S.
AT LEAST PART OF THE IMPETUS FOR NORTH KOREA AGREEING TO
THE NEGOTIATIONS, WHICH OBSERVERS HOPE MAY SOMEDAY LEAD
TO FORMAL PEACE TALKS, WAS THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION
IN THE NORTH KOREAN FOOD SUPPLY.
U-S EDITORIAL WRITERS WERE QUICK TO SEIZE ON THE EVENT
AS A HOPEFUL SIGN IN AN OTHERWISE BLIGHTED PICTURE. WE
GET A SAMPLING NOW FROM ___________________ IN TODAY'S
U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: THE TALKS BEGAN LAST WEEK AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN NEW
YORK CITY, FULLY 44 YEARS AFTER THE SIGNING OF THE 1953
ARMISTICE AGREEMENT, WHICH MERELY STOPPED THE FIGHTING,
BUT DID NOT FORMALLY END THE KOREAN WAR.
MOST EDITORIAL WRITERS CREDIT THE FAMINE CONDITIONS IN
MUCH OF THE NORTH WITH FORCING THE PYONGYANG GOVERNMENT
TO THE BARGAINING TABLE, NO MATTER HOW RELUCTANTLY.
HOWEVER THEY ALSO POINT OUT THAT INCREASING FAMINE AID
TO THE NORTH IS A VERY DIFFICULT QUESTION, SINCE THE
GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN ONE OF THE MOST
BELLIGERENT IN THE WORLD.
AS THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE PUTS IT, THE ISSUE BOILS DOWN TO
THIS: "FEED PEOPLE OR STARVE TYRANTS?" THAT IS THE
QUESTION. WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN COLORADO, WHERE
HOLGER JENSEN, SENIOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN NEWS IN DENVER HAS THESE THOUGHTS.
VOICE: "FAMINE HAS BROUGHT NORTH KOREA TO THE NEGOTIATING
TABLE, BUT FOUR-PARTY TALKS NOW UNDER WAY ... HAVE FAR
TO GO BEFORE THEY CAN PRODUCE A LASTING PEACE ON THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. IN THIS INITIAL PHASE, THE UNITED
STATES, CHINA AND THE TWO KOREAS ARE LIMITING THEMSELVES
TO PROCEDURAL MATTERS - - SETTING A DATE, TIME AND
PLACE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIVE NEGOTIATIONS SET TO BEGIN NEW
MONTH. THEY HAVEN'T EVEN AGREED ON AN AGENDA YET. .....
EVEN SO, U-S OFFICIALS REGARD THE FACT THAT NORTH KOREA
IS EVEN TALKING TO SOUTH KOREA AS A BREAKTHROUGH. [OPT]
..... THAT NORTH KOREANS ARE SUFFERING THERE IS NO
DOUBT. TWO YEARS OF FLOODING AND NOW A DISASTROUS
DROUGHT HAVE MADE THE COUNTRY TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON
DONATED GRAIN. ESTIMATED BY U-N RELIEF AGENCIES SAY
THAT NORTH KOREA NEEDS 800-THOUSAND TONS OF RICE AND
CORN TO AVERT MASS STARVATION. [END OPT] ..... CHILDREN
ARE STARVING TO DEATH IN KINDERGARTENS AND HOSPITALS - -
NORTH KOREAN OFFICIALS EXPECT 60-THOUSAND TO DIE THIS
YEAR - - AND MALNOURISHED ADULTS ARE BECOMING TOO WEAK
TO WORK. FOR A STALINIST REGIME THAT HAS MADE 'JUCHE'
(EXTREME SELF-RELIANCE) ITS GUIDING PHILOSOPHY, BEGGING
FOR FOOD IS AN EXTREME HUMILIATION. BUT PYONGYANG HAS
BEEN FORCED TO ADMIT THAT ITS 'TEMPORARY FOOD SHORTAGE
HAS REACHED A SERIOUS STAGE,' EVEN THOUGH NORTH KOREA'S
HOSTILITY TO THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS LEFT FEW NATIONS
FEELING GENEROUS."
TEXT: TURNING TO THE MIDWEST, THE ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
WORRIES ABOUT THE SITUATION, BUT ALSO ABOUT HOW
DIFFICULT IT IS TO HELP A COUNTRY AS XENOPHOBIC AND
UNCOOPERATIVE AS NORTH KOREA.
VOICE: "NORTH KOREA, THE BAD BOY OF EAST ASIA, IS FACING A
FAMINE OF FEARSOME DIMENSIONS, PERHAPS MORE TERRIBLE
THAN THOSE OF ETHIOPIA AND SOMALIA IN THE LAST DECADE.
AGRICULTURE HAS COLLAPSED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. NO
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN NORTH KOREA FOR 60 DAYS, DEVASTATING
CROPS ALREADY INEFFICIENTLY CULTIVATED. CROP ROTATION
IS UNKNOWN, AND SYSTEMATIC IRRIGATION HAS NEVER BEEN
DEVELOPED. THE COUNTRY'S 24 MILLION PEOPLE NEED MASSIVE
FOOD AID NOW. SOME FIVE MILLION OF THEM ARE SAID TO BE
CLOSE TO STARVATION. BUT PROVIDING AID WILL NOT BE
EASY. THE REGIME IS NOTORIOUSLY SECRETIVE AND RELUCTANT
TO ADMIT TO THE WORLD THE EXTENT OF ITS CRISIS. IT HAS
BEEN UNWILLING EVEN TO PERMIT RELIEF OFFICIALS TO MOVE
FREELY ABOUT THE COUNTRY TO ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE DISASTER. ....... THE POSSIBILITY THAT MASS
STARVATION AND GENERAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE WILL CAUSE THE
REGIME TO DISSOLVE, LEAVING SOUTH KOREA TO RESCUE THE
NORTH'S POPULATION, OR MERELY SEND MILLIONS OF NORTH
KOREANS FLEEING TO THE SOUTH TO FIND SOMETHING TO EAT,
IS SOMETHING SOUTH KOREA AND THE UNITED STATES WOULD
DEARLY LIKE TO AVOID."
TEXT: HERE IN THE NATION'S CAPITOL, THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAS
FEARS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE POST-DISPATCH, OF A TOTAL
COLLAPSE OF THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT AND OF REFUGEES
OVERRUNNING THE SOUTH.
VOICE: "CONDITIONS IN NORTH KOREA MUST BE BLEAK INDEED. THEY
ARE SO BLEAK THAT THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT THIS WEEK
TOOK THE FIRST RELUCTANT STEPS, UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE, TO
SIT DOWN FOR TALKS WITH THEIR FELLOW KOREANS IN THE
SOUTH, AS WELL AS WITH REPRESENTATIVES FROM CHINA AND
THE UNITED STATES, TO PUT AN OFFICIAL END TO THE KOREAN
WAR. .... IT'S SURELY ABOUT TIME. STILL, THE FACT
REMAINS THAT THE WORLD'S MOST HEAVILY FORTIFIED BORDER,
THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA, IS
THE MOST LIKELY FLASHPOINT FOR THE NEXT INTERNATIONAL
CRISIS. [OPT] .....ACCORDING TO THE FAR EASTERN
ECONOMIC REVIEW, FOR SEVEN YEARS STRAIGHT THE NORTH
KOREAN ECONOMY HAS BEEN SHRINKING, LAST YEAR BY FOUR
PERCENT, AND THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED LESS THAN HALF OF
THE FOOD IT WOULD TAKE TO FEED ITSELF EVERY YEAR SINCE
1991. EVEN SO, THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE REPORTEDLY BEEN
SELLING MAIZE TO JAPANESE CHICKEN FARMERS, POSSIBLY FOOD
AID FROM INTERNATIONAL RELIEF AGENCIES. PYONGYANG
SOMEHOW ALSO SOMEHOW FOUND THE MONEY TO SEND 500
STUDENTS TO THE 14TH WORLD YOUTH FESTIVAL IN CUBA IN
JULY. [END OPT] THE PROSPECT OF STARVING NORTH KOREANS
STREAMING INTO CHINA OR THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST REMAIN A
CONSTANT WORRY TO THOSE COUNTRIES. ..... WHAT SEEMS
CERTAIN THOUGH AT THIS POINT: THE BIGGER THE POLITICAL
OPENING NOW IN NORTH KOREA CREATED BY THE NEED FOR
FOREIGN AID TO DEAL WITH THE CURRENT FOOD SHORTAGES, THE
BETTER WE SHALL BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH THE REGIME'S
COLLAPSE WHENEVER IT COMES."
TEXT: TURNING AGAIN TO THE MIDWEST, THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE, IN
THAT EDITORIAL MENTIONED EARLIER, HAS THIS ASSESSMENT OF
THE SITUATION.
VOICE: "THE REGIME MAY BE SLOWLY EDGING TOWARD COLLAPSE, BUT IT
IS DOING EVERYTHING WITHIN ITS POWER TO DELAY THE FINAL
RECKONING AS LONG AS POSSIBLE. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THAT
MEANS KEEPING THE COUNTRY'S ARMED FORCES WELL-FED,
CONTENTED AND UNDER CONTROL. ORDINARY FOLKS MAY HAVE TO
GET BY ON STRICTLY ENFORCED RATIONS OF JUST A FEW
HUNDRED CALORIES PER DAY, MUCH OF IT FROM GRASSES,
LEAVES AND TREE BARK, BUT THE MEN AND WOMEN IN UNIFORM
ARE FAR BETTER PROVISIONED. IN FACT, THE LION'S SHARE
[LARGEST PART] OF WHAT FOOD IS PRODUCED IN NORTH KOREA
GOES TO SOME TWO MILLION GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND
SOLDIERS - - ONLY ONE-TWELFTH OF THE POPULATION. EVEN
WORSE, SOME DEFECTORS SAY THAT MUCH OF THE FOOD DONATED
TO NORTH KOREA BY INTERNATIONAL RELIEF AGENCIES IS ALSO
BEING CONSUMED ON MILITARY BASES. [OPT] THAT'S WHY
THERE IS SUCH DEEP SKEPTICISM AND SOULSEARCHING OVER
URGENT CALLS TO SPEED UP FOOD DELIVERIES TO NORTH KOREA
BEFORE A FULL-SCALE FAMINE TAKES HOLD. [END OPT] .....
IF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS AND RELIEF AGENCIES BELIEVE THERE
ARE GOOD REASONS, BOTH HUMANE AND POLITICAL, FOR FURTHER
FOOD DELIVERIES TO NORTH KOREA, THEN AT THE VERY LEAST
THEY SHOULD DEMAND IRONCLAD PROCEDURES TO GUARANTEE THAT
THEY GET TO NEEDY PEOPLE. A SOFT HEART MAY BE A VIRTUE,
BUT A SOFT HEAD MOST SURELY IS NOT."
TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF OPINION
FROM THE U-S PRESS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION IN NORTH
KOREA, AND THE OPENING OF FOUR-PARTY TALKS IN NEW YORK
CITY LAST WEEK.
NEB/ANG/EH
11-Aug-97 1:10 PM EDT (1710 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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