DATE= 10/1/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37681
TITLE=KOREA TALKS STALEMATE
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WHEN PRELIMINARY TALKS AMONG NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA, THE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA ENDED LAST MONTH WITHOUT SETTING AN
AGENDA FOR FORMAL PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, THE NEWS MEDIA DESCRIBED
THE EFFORT AS A FAILURE. BUT AS V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN REPORTS,
AMERICAN ANALYSTS SAY THE APPARENT COLLAPSE OF THE PRELIMINARY
ROUND WAS TO BE EXPECTED AND MAY HAVE BEEN A POSITIVE STEP FOR
ALL CONCERNED.
TEXT: THE GOAL OF THE SO-CALLED FOUR-PARTY TALKS IS TO ARRANGE
PEACE NEGOTIATIONS TO BRING A FORMAL END TO THE KOREAN WAR, WHICH
WAS FOUGHT IN THE EARLY 1950'S. CURRENTLY, THE CEASEFIRE IS
MAINTAINED BY A 1953 ARMISTICE. THE TALKS LAST MONTH IN NEW YORK
BROUGHT TOGETHER NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA, CHINA AND THE UNITED
STATES. BUT THE FOUR PARTIES COULD NOT AGREE ON AN AGENDA FOR
A PEACE CONFERENCE THAT WAS HOPED TO BE HELD IN GENEVA LATER THIS
YEAR.
U-S OFFICIALS SAY THE NEW YORK TALKS STALLED OVER NORTH KOREA'S
DEMAND THAT MORE FOOD AID AND A WITHDRAWAL OF U-S TROOPS FROM THE
SOUTH BE INCLUDED IN DISCUSSIONS.
ROBERT MANNING, WITH THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, SAYS NORTH
KOREA LIKELY KNEW THAT ITS POSITION WOULD NOT YIELD PROGRESS.
// MANNING ACT //
THE POSITION THEY CAME TO NEW YORK WITH SEEMED TO ME TO
BE PRETTY MUCH OF A STALLING TACTIC. IF YOU WANT
NOTHING TO HAPPEN, THAT'S A PRETTY GOOD WAY OF MAKING
SURE THAT NOTHING HAPPENS.
// END ACT //
MR. MANNING AND OTHER ANALYSTS WONDER IF NORTH KOREA MAY WANT TO
WAIT UNTIL AFTER LEADER KIM JONG IL OFFICIALLY ASSUMES THE TOP
TITLES AND FULL POWER BEFORE ALLOWING REAL PROGRESS IN THE PEACE
TALKS. MR. KIM IS EXPECTED TO BE NAMED GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE
RULING COMMUNIST PARTY AROUND OCTOBER 10TH.
MOREOVER, SAYS ANALYST LEON SIGAL, IF THE NORTH HAD NOT ADOPTED
A STALLING POSITION IN NEW YORK, U-S AND SOUTH KOREAN DELEGATES
WOULD HAVE HAD A PROBLEM. MR. SIGAL SAYS THE UNITED STATES AND
SOUTH KOREA ARE NOT READY TO COMMIT TO A POSITION UNTIL AFTER A
NEW GOVERNMENT IS INSTALLED IN SEOUL. SOUTH KOREA IS TO HOLD A
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN DECEMBER, AND THE NEW PRESIDENT IS TO
TAKE OFFICE IN FEBRUARY.
MR. SIGAL, WHO HAS JUST WRITTEN A BOOK ABOUT DIPLOMACY WITH NORTH
KOREA, IS CONFIDENT PEACE TALKS WILL TAKE PLACE. BUT, HE SAYS
NOW IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME.
// SIGAL ACT //
YOU NEVER WORK OUT A NEW POSITION IF YOU KNOW THERE'S
GOING TO BE A NEW GOVERNMENT. YOU JUST DON'T DO THAT.
THAT'S A DIFFERENT THING FROM REAL TALKS. THE FACT OF
HAVING FORMAL TALKS, THAT JUST HAS TO BE STAGE-MANAGED
IN SUCH A WAY WHERE YOU DON'T HAVE A HIATUS, BECAUSE IF
YOU HAVE A LONG HIATUS, EVERYBODY HERE WILL BE WRITING,
'TALKS GOING NOWHERE,' FOR FOUR MONTHS. THAT'S ALL
THAT'S GOING ON HERE. WE HAVE TO STEP BACK AND
UNDERSTAND, THE POLITICAL PROCESS IS WHAT MATTERS.
// END ACT //
MR. SIGAL SAYS AFTER KIM JONG IL IS INSTALLED IN THE NORTH AND
AFTER A NEW PRESIDENT IS INAUGURATED IN THE SOUTH, THE PEACE
PROCESS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE FORWARD.
SOUTH KOREA'S CURRENT PRESIDENT, KIM YOUNG SAM, IS NOT ELIGIBLE
FOR RE-ELECTION. GIVEN THE FIELD OF CANDIDATES -- FIVE SO FAR --
LEON SIGAL AND ROBERT MANNING AGREE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
CHANGE IN THE SOUTH'S APPROACH TO THE NORTH. MR. SIGAL EXPECTS
ANY NEW GOVERNMENT IN SEOUL TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE COOPERATIVE WITH
PYONGYANG THAN THE GOVERNMENT OF KIM YOUNG SAM.
PRESIDENT KIM DID NOT SEND CONDOLENCES WHEN NORTH KOREAN LEADER
KIM IL SUNG DIED IN 1994 -- WHICH WAS SEEN IN PYONGYANG AS A
GREAT AFFRONT. THEREFORE, ANALYSTS SAY NORTH KOREA, FOR ITS
PART, IS LIKELY TO BE MORE COOPERATIVE WITH A NEW PRESIDENT IN
SEOUL. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN /MMK
01-Oct-97 1:49 PM EDT (1749 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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