DATE=12/5/97
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-223710
TITLE=KOREA TALKS Q&A / SECURITY ISSUES (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=MAX RUSTON
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: ON TUESDAY, OFFICIALS FROM NORTH KOREA, SOUTH KOREA, THE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA WILL GATHER IN GENEVA, SWITZERLAND, FOR A
FIRST ROUND OF TALKS AIMED AT ESTABLISHING A NEW PEACE AGREEMENT
FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA. NEGOTIATORS WILL ALSO TRY TO REDUCE
TENSION IN WHAT IS ONE OF THE MOST HIGHLY MILITARIZED REGIONS OF
THE WORLD. V-O-A'S MAX RUSTON SPOKE WITH FORMER U-S DEPUTY
ASSISTANT DEFENSE SECRETARY DAVID DENOON AND ASKED HIM HOW
IMPORTANT THE GENEVA TALKS -- AND RELATIONS BETWEEN NORTH AND
SOUTH KOREA -- ARE TO THE SECURITY SITUATION IN EAST ASIA.
/// BEGIN ACT ///
DENOON: I WOULD SAY (THE TALKS ARE) DEFINITELY A BIG
STEP FORWARD. I WOULD SAY IMPORTANT ON SEVERAL GROUNDS.
IT IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT SHOWS THAT THEY HAVE BACKED
DOWN FROM PREVIOUSLY RIGID POSITIONS OVER THE LAST YEAR
OR TWO. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY I THINK THE CONTEXT IS
CRITICAL AND THAT IS THAT THE CHINESE HAVE CLEARLY BEEN
ENCOURAGING THE NORTH KOREANS TO TAKE A MORE COOPERATIVE
STANCE, AND THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE CHINESE HAVE PLAYED
AT LEAST A USEFUL OR SUPPORTIVE ROLE IN THE BACKGROUND,
AND I THINK THAT IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL IN THE REGION.
RUSTON: KIM JONG-IL HAS RECENTLY CONSOLIDATED HIS
LEADERSHIP POSITION IN NORTH KOREA. DOES THAT GIVE US
ANY MORE HOPE FOR A BETTER SECURITY SITUATION IN THAT
REGION?
DENOON: THERE ARE POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES TO YOUR
QUESTION. FIRST IT WOULD BE REASSURING, IN ALMOST ANY
COUNTRY, IF YOU FELT THE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP WAS SECURE
AND THAT IT WAS OBVIOUS WHO WAS IN CHARGE, SO IN THAT
SENSE, KIM JONG-IL'S CONSOLIDATION OF AT LEAST TITLES IS
SOMEWHAT REASSURING. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE, HOWEVER,
MOST OF WHAT OUTSIDERS KNOW OF KIM JONG-IL AS AN
INDIVIDUAL LEADS US TO BE RATHER SKEPTICAL BOTH OF HIS
ABILITIES AND HIS INTENTIONS. WE KNOW VERY LITTLE ABOUT
HIM. WE HAVE SO LITTLE INFORMATION ABOUT HIS MOTIVATION
AND HIS THOUGHT PROCESS, THAT I WOULD NOT BE POSITIVE
ABOUT SOMEONE ON WHOM WE HAVE VERY LITTLE INFORMATION.
RUSTON: DOES NORTH KOREA POSE A SECURITY THREAT TO THE
EAST ASIA REGION?
DENOON: YES, IN TWO WAYS. ONE, THEY DO HAVE
INTERMEDIATE-RANGE MISSILES AND, SADLY, DESPITE THE
EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES THEY HAVE HAD, THEY
STILL SEEM TO BE GOING AHEAD WITH EFFORTS TO TEST AND
MODERNIZE THOSE MISSILES. AND CERTAINLY THEIR CURRENT
OPERATIONAL MISSILES COULD HIT THE ENTIRE AREA OF SOUTH
KOREA AND CERTAIN WESTERN AREAS OF HONSHU IN JAPAN. SO
THAT IS TROUBLE IN ITSELF. BUT I THINK MORE IMPORTANTLY
NORTH KOREA IS A POTENTIAL FLASH POINT BECAUSE OF OUR
DIFFICULTY FIGURING OUT WHY THE KOREAN LEADERSHIP DOES
WHAT IT DOES -- WHEN THEY ASSASSINATE A LARGE PART OF
THE SOUTH KOREAN CABINET IN BURMA A DECADE AGO, WHEN
THEY BLOW UP AIRPLANES AS THEY DID IN THE MIDDLE EAST,
WHEN THEY DIG TUNNELS INTO THE SOUTH AND INFILTRATE
COMMANDOS IN SUBMARINES -- ONE WONDERS WHY THEY DO THIS.
IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT GAIN THEM ANYTHING IN THE SHORT
RUN AND IT IS HIGHLY PROVOCATIVE. NOW IF THEIR GOAL IS
SIMPLY TO BE, QUOTE, RESPECTED, AND TO BE FEARED, THEN
THEY HAVE ACHIEVED THAT. BUT IF THEY HAVE SOME OTHER
GOAL, IT IS HARD FOR OUTSIDERS, WHO HAVE VERY LIMITED
INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTERNAL WORKINGS OF THEIR
LEADERSHIP, TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY ARE TRYING TO
ACCOMPLISH.
/// END ACT ///
OUTRO: THAT WAS FORMER U-S DEPUTY ASSISTANT DEFENSE SECRETARY
DAVID DENOON, NOW A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT NEW YORK
UNIVERSITY, SPEAKING WITH V-O-A'S MAX RUSTON ABOUT THE SECURITY
SITUATION ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA. (END)
NEB/NY/MPR/LSF
05-Dec-97 10:02 AM EST (1502 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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