DATE=12/5/97
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-223709
TITLE=KOREA TALKS Q&A / OBJECTIVES (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=MAX RUSTON
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: NEGOTIATORS FROM NORTH KOREA, SOUTH KOREA, THE UNITED
STATES AND CHINA WILL HOLD TALKS IN GENEVA STARTING TUESDAY AIMED
AT ESTABLISHING A FORMAL PEACE TREATY FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
THE TALKS ARE CONSIDERED THE MOST IMPORTANT SINCE AN ARMISTICE
WAS AGREED TO IN THE MID-1950'S, ENDING FIGHTING IN THE KOREAN
WAR. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT MAX RUSTON SPOKE ABOUT THE KOREAN
SITUATION WITH PROFESSOR MICHAEL YOUNG, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER
FOR KOREAN LEGAL STUDIES AT NEW YORK'S COLUMBIA LAW SCHOOL. HE
ASKED MR YOUNG ABOUT NORTH KOREA'S OBJECTIVES IN PARTICIPATING IN
THE GENEVA TALKS.
/// BEGIN ACT ///
YOUNG: I THINK THEIR MEDIUM-TERM OBJECTIVE -- THE
LONG-TERM OBJECTIVE IS HARDER TO SAY -- BUT THE
MEDIUM-TERM OBJECTIVE IS THEY WOULD LIKE TO DEVELOP
CLOSER RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. AND THEY WOULD
LIKE TO DO THAT INDEPENDENT OF SOUTH KOREA IF POSSIBLE.
SO, TWO OF THE MAIN THINGS THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE ON THE
AGENDA ... ONE IS THE WITHDRAWAL OF U-S TROOPS FROM
SOUTH KOREA, ABOUT WHICH THE U-S AND SOUTH KOREA DO NOT
WANT TO TALK; AND SECONDLY, NORTH KOREA WOULD LIKE TO
SIGN A PEACE TREATY WITH THE UNITED STATES ALONE, HAVING
THE UNITED STATES RECOGNIZE SOME INDEPENDENT
RELATIONSHIP WITH NORTH KOREA, WITHOUT CONSULTING SOUTH
KOREA, AND THAT IS A BIG PART OF THEIR AGENDA. NOW I
THINK BOTH THOSE THINGS ARE DEEPLY ANTITHETICAL TO THE
U-S AGENDA AND TO THE SOUTH KOREAN AGENDA, SO WHETHER
THEY WILL BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH THAT IS HARD TO SAY --
BUT I THINK AT LEAST PART OF WHAT THEY ARE TRYING TO DO
IS TO DEVELOP AN INDEPENDENT RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
UNITED STATES.
RUSTON: HOW ABOUT SHORT-TERM OBJECTIVES, CONSIDERING
THE SEVERE ECONOMIC AND FOOD PROBLEMS THEY HAVE NOW.
HOW DOES IT FIT INTO THAT?
YOUNG: I THINK THE TIMING OF THE TALKS IS NOT ENTIRELY
COINCIDENTAL. THE BREAKTHROUGH CAME LITERALLY A WEEK OR
TWO AFTER THE MAIN U-N INSPECTION DELEGATION HAD GONE
OVER THERE TO TRY AND DETERMINE THE REAL FOOD NEEDS AND
THE U-S WAS A BIG PART OF THAT. THE U-S DELEGATION CAME
BACK AND REPORTED TO THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, AND
MY SUSPICION IS THAT ALTHOUGH EVERYONE SAYS RATHER
EMPHATICALLY THAT AID AND TALKS ARE NOT LINKED, MY GUESS
IS THAT IN THIS LAST SET OF TALKS, THE U-S WAS ABLE TO
GIVE SOME ASSURANCES, HAVING DONE INSPECTIONS, THAT
THERE WOULD BE AID FORTHCOMING, AND MY GUESS IS THAT AID
IS QUITE IMPORTANT TO THE NORTH.
RUSTON: WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT NORTH KOREA BEING ON THE
BRINK OF ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. HOW MUCH OF THAT SHOULD WE
BELIEVE?
YOUNG: I THINK A LITTLE LESS THAN WE ARE HEARING,
FRANKLY SPEAKING. I THINK CERTAINLY THERE IS EVIDENCE
OF WIDESPREAD ECONOMIC DISTRESS, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A
SPIRAL DOWNWARD FOR A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
RELATING THAT TO THE POLITICAL STABILITY OF THE COUNTRY
IS HARD TO SAY. IT IS DIFFERENT THAN EASTERN EUROPE IN
AN IMPORTANT WAY. IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE INDIGENOUS
REVOLUTION, AND A MORE INDIGENOUSLY BASED REGIME THAN I
THINK MANY OF THE EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WERE, AND
SO THE PEOPLE DO SEEM TO HAVE A GREATER SENSE OF
REVOLUTIONARY FERVOR AND SO FORTH. I DO NOT SEE AN
IMMEDIATE COLLAPSE IN THE SENSE THAT NOBODY IN THE
COUNTRY IS TAKING ANY STEPS THAT WOULD UNDERMINE THEIR
POLITICAL POWER. ON THE OTHER HAND, WHEN IT HAPPENS, IT
WILL HAPPEN RATHER SPECTACULARLY AND RATHER QUICKLY, IS
MY GUESS. I DO NOT THINK THEY ARE GOING TO GIVE UP
POWER VOLUNTARILY AND I DO NOT THINK THEY ARE TAKING ANY
STEPS TO LOOSEN POWER OR OTHERWISE DEMOCRATIZE OR DO ANY
OF THOSE THINGS THAT MIGHT UNDERMINE THEIR POWER BASE,
BUT AT SOME POINT SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN AND IT WILL
SIMPLY BE TOO LARGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO HANDLE.
/// END ACT ///
OUTRO: THAT WAS COLUMBIA LAW SCHOOL PROFESSOR MICHAEL YOUNG
SPEAKING TO CORRESPONDENT MAX RUSTON. MR. YOUNG WAS DISCUSSING
THE SITUATION ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS NORTH KOREA, SOUTH
KOREA, THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA PREPARE FOR PEACE TALKS IN
GENEVA. (END)
NEB/NY/MPR/LSF/RRM
05-Dec-97 9:36 AM EST (1436 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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