DATE=12/11/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38370
TITLE=KOREA TALKS / NEXT STEP
BYLINE=MAX RUSTON
DATELINE=GENEVA
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: KOREAN PEACE TALKS THIS WEEK IN GENEVA WERE INTENDED TO
BE A FIRST STEP TOWARDS EASING TENSION IN ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST
HIGHLY MILITARIZED REGIONS. PARTICIPANTS AGREED TO CONTINUE
THEIR DISCUSSIONS IN MARCH, BUT DID NOT MAKE PROGRESS ON
SUBSTANTIAL ISSUES DIVIDING THE TWO KOREAS. IN THIS REPORT FROM
GENEVA, CORRESPONDENT MAX RUSTON LOOKS AT THE PROSPECTS FOR
IMPROVED TIES ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA, FOLLOWING THE FIRST FORMAL
PEACE TALKS IN MORE THAN FOUR DECADES.
TEXT: THE KEY TO SUCCESS IN THE FIRST ROUND OF KOREAN PEACE
TALKS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE SETTING OF LOW EXPECTATIONS. OF
THE FOUR PARTIES INVOLVED, ONLY NORTH KOREA EXPRESSED
DISAPPOINTMENT SUBSTANTIAL ISSUES WERE NOT DISCUSSED. OFFICIALS
FROM SOUTH KOREA, THE UNITED STATES, AND CHINA SAID THEY DID NOT
EXPECT IMMEDIATE PROGRESS ON BIG ISSUES. THEY SAY THEY WERE
PLEASED THE TALKS TOOK PLACE AT ALL.
DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE, STANLEY ROTH, REPRESENTED
WASHINGTON IN THE TALKS.
/// ROTH ACT ///
THIS WAS NOT A DEBATE. THIS WAS NOT A CONTENTIOUS
MEETING. THIS WAS AN INITIAL MEETING. A LOT OF TIME
WAS SPENT SIMPLY FOR AN INITIAL EXPRESSION OF VIEWS AND
THEN DISCUSSING HOW WE ORGANIZE IN ORDER TO PREPARE FOR
THE FUTURE MEETINGS AT WHICH TIME MUCH MORE ATTENTION
WILL BE FOCUSSED ON THE SPECIFIC ISSUES.
/// END ACT ///
U-S OFFICIALS SAY THEY SEE THE TALKS AS A STEP-BY-STEP PROCESS.
THEY SAY THE FIRST STAGE SHOULD BE TO ESTABLISH A SENSE OF TRUST.
BUT KOREA EXPERTS SAY IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT HOW SUCCESSFUL
THE U-S APPROACH WILL BE. THEY SAY THE FACT TALKS HAVE BEGUN IS
CERTAINLY ENCOURAGING, BUT THEY ADD THERE IS GOOD REASON FOR
PESSIMISM, AS NORTH KOREA HAS MADE IT CLEAR ITS OBJECTIVES IN THE
TALKS ARE DIFFERENT FROM THOSE OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTH
KOREA.
NORTH KOREA SAYS IT WANTS THE TALKS TO FOCUS FIRST ON THE REMOVAL
OF U-S TROOPS FROM SOUTH KOREA AND THEN ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A
SEPARATE PEACE TREATY WITH THE UNITED STATES. WASHINGTON AND
SEOUL WANT TO INCREASE DIRECT TIES WITH THE NORTH AND ESTABLISH A
MULTI-LATERAL PEACE AGREEMENT TO REPLACE THE 1953 ARMISTICE THAT
ENDED THE FIGHTING.
DESPITE THESE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES, THE PARTIES ARE WILLING TO
CONTINUE TALKING. KOREA EXPERTS SAY THIS IS BECAUSE EACH SIDE
HAS SPECIAL SHORT-TERM NEEDS THEY HOPE TO SATISFY IN THE TALKS.
FOR CHINA, THE UNITED STATES, AND SOUTH KOREA, THOSE SHORT-TERM
NEEDS CENTER ON CONCERNS NORTH KOREA, WITH ITS AGGRESSIVE
MILITARY STANCE TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THREATENS THE STABILITY OF THE
EAST-ASIAN REGION. THEY SEE TALKS -- EVEN IF THEY LACK SUBSTANCE
-- AS A MEANS FOR EASING AND BETTER UNDERSTANDING THIS PERCEIVED
THREAT.
NORTH KOREA'S NEEDS ARE MORE ECONOMIC THAN POLITICAL OR
MILITARY. ITS ECONOMY IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND IT IS
SUFFERING FROM A SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGE.
// OPT // FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE DAVID
DENOON, AN EXPERT ON EAST-ASIAN SECURITY ISSUES, SAYS NORTH KOREA
IS IN DESPERATE NEED OF ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE.
/// DENOON ACT ///
THEIR (EDS: NORTH KOREA) ECONOMIC SITUATION IS OBVIOUSLY
DIRE. WE DO NOT KNOW THE FULL EXTENT OF IT. THE NUMBER
OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE TRAVELED TO NORTH KOREA IS LIMITED.
THE DATA IS ANECDOTAL. BUT CERTAINLY ONE HAS TO
RECOGNIZE THE VULNERABILITY OF THE REGIME BECAUSE OF ITS
INABILITY TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LIVING STANDARDS FOR ITS
POPULATION. THAT MEANS THAT THEY SEE GETTING SOME
CAPITAL, CERTAINLY INCREASED TRADE, AS CRITICAL TO THEIR
SHORT-TERM AGENDA.
/// END ACT // END OPT ///
EACH OF THE PARTIES IN THE KOREAN PEACE TALKS HOPES TO FULFILL
ITS SHORT-TERM NEEDS WITHOUT MAKING CONCESSIONS ON LONG-TERM
OBJECTIVES. IN THIS SENSE, EACH PARTY IS APPLYING A SIMILAR
STRATEGY TO THE NEGOTIATIONS -- A FACTOR KOREA EXPERTS SAY MEANS
THE TALKS WILL, AT BEST, MOVE SLOWLY AND, AT WORST, REACH AN
EARLY STALEMATE OR COLLAPSE. (SIGNED)
NEB/MPR/PCF/RAE
11-Dec-97 8:13 AM EST (1313 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
