Voice of America 5/1/97
NORTH KOREA/ EVOLUTION OR COLLAPSE?
BYLINE=MAX RUSTON
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AS NORTH KOREA FACES THE THREAT
OF FAMINE AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, ITS FATE
IS CAUSING INCREASING CONCERN IN THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT OVER HOW THE COUNTRY
WILL COPE WITH ITS PROBLEMS. BUT, AS WE
HEAR FROM V-O-A'S MAX RUSTON IN NEW
YORK, EXPERTS DO AGREE ON ONE POINT,
THAT NORTH KOREA POSES AN INCREASING
THREAT TO THE STABILITY OF NORTHEAST ASIA.
TEXT: AT A DISCUSSION ON NORTHEAST ASIA,
SPONSORED BY THE NEW YORK-BASED ASIA
SOCIETY, EXPERTS OUTLINED A SERIES OF
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NORTH KOREA'S
FUTURE. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS INVOLVES
THE IMMEDIATE COLLAPSE OF THE NORTH
KOREAN GOVERNMENT, A DEVELOPMENT
SOME EXPERTS THINK IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
BUT, PROFESSOR ROBERT SCALAPINO OF
THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT
BERKELEY, A WELL KNOWN SCHOLAR OF
ASIAN POLITICS, SAYS SUCH A
DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE MORE
PROBLEMS THAN IT RESOLVES.
/// SCALAPINO ACT ///
IMMEDIATE COLLAPSE IN MY VIEW WOULD
EXACT A VERY HEAVY PRICE ON THE SOUTH
(KOREA) AND INDIRECTLY ON OTHERS.
TWENTY-THREE MILLION PEOPLE ... HALF
YOUR POPULATION ... A MISERABLE
ECONOMIC LEVEL. BUT BEYOND THAT
THE 23 MILLION PEOPLE WHO HAVE ONLY
KNOWN THE STALINIST TYPE POLITICAL
SYSTEM WOULD BE INJECTED INTO SOUTH
KOREA'S SOMEWHAT FRAGILE DEMOCRACY.
VERY DIFFICULT.
/// END ACT ///
ANOTHER SCENARIO DISCUSSED AT THE
ASIA SOCIETY WAS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
DETERIORATING ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL
CONDITIONS IN NORTH KOREA COULD PROMPT
THAT COUNTRY TO ATTACK SOUTH KOREA IN
A LAST, DESPERATE GRASP FOR SURVIVAL.
PARTICIPANTS IN THE ASIA SOCIETY
DISCUSSION, MANY OF WHOM HAVE TRAVELLED
IN NORTH KOREA AND TALKED WITH THE
COUNTRY'S SENIOR OFFICIALS, SAY THEY
CONSIDER THAT DEVELOPMENT AN UNLIKELY
ONE. THEY SAY NORTH KOREAN LEADERS
APPEAR TO BE AWARE THAT SOUTH KOREAN
AND UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES WOULD
RECIPROCATE ANY ATTACK AND INEVITABLY
WIN SUCH A WAR.
PROFESSOR ROBERT SCALAPINO SAYS STARTING
A WAR WITH THE SOUTH WOULD BE THE
EQUIVALENT OF AN ACT OF SUICIDE BY THE
NORTH KOREA STATE.
/// SCALAPINO ACT ///
MY OWN FEELING IS THAT LEADERS DO NOT
KNOWINGLY COMMIT SUICIDE ON BEHALF OF
THEMSELVES AND THEIR PEOPLE VERY OFTEN.
IT IS A RARE OCCASION, IF IT EVER HAPPENS.
/// END ACT ///
MR. SCALAPINO SAYS AS FAR AS HE CAN
TELL, NORTH KOREAN LEADER KIM JONG-IL
HAS THE LOYALTY OF THE MAJORITY OF
NORTH KOREAN PEOPLE. BUT HE SAYS THAT
LOYALTY WILL ERODE IF MR. KIM DOES NOT
SUCCEED IN IMPROVING THE COUNTRY'S
ECONOMY AND LIVING CONDITIONS. THAT
NECESSITY, HE SAYS, PUTS PRESSURE ON
MR. KIM TO CARRY OUT ECONOMIC REFORMS
AND POSSIBLY EASE UP ON POLITICAL
RESTRICTIONS.
FORMER JAPANESE AMBASSADOR TO THE
UNITED STATES NOBUO MATSUNAGA AGREES
THAT THE SITUATION IN NORTH KOREA IS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND DIFFICULT
TO ASSESS. MR. MATSUNAGA, NOW AN
ADVISOR TO THE JAPANESE MINISTRY OF
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, SAYS THE BEST ACTION
FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD IS TO WAIT
PATIENTLY FOR NEW DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE NORTH.
/// MATSUNAGA ACT ///
SO WE HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY AND
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS WILL DEVELOP
THERE. OF COURSE WE WOULD LIKE TO
BE HOPEFUL THAT A SOFT LANDING OF NORTH
KOREA WOULD BE REALIZED BECAUSE WE FEEL
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY WAY FOR NORTH
KOREA TO BE A RESPONSIBLE PARTNER, TO
PLAY A RESPONSIBLE ROLE IN THAT REGION,
SO THAT WE CAN BE ASSURED OF SECURITY
AND PEACE. BUT FOR THAT WE NEED TO
WAIT I THINK.
/// END ACT ///
MR. MATSUNAGA SAYS THE LEADERS OF
NORTH KOREA -- PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE
MILITARY -- APPEAR TO FAVOR ISOLATIONISM
AT THIS TIME, WHAT HE CALLS A HARD-LINE
POLICY. BUT HE SAYS WITH TIME, THE
COUNTRY COULD BECOME MORE FLEXIBLE
AND WILLING TO CHANGE. HE SAYS SOUTH
KOREA, JAPAN, THE UNITED STATES AND
OTHER INTERESTED COUNTRIES NEED TO BE
READY TO BECOME MORE INVOLVED AT THAT
TIME AND HELP NORTH KOREA ACHIEVE
WHAT HE DESCRIBES AS A SOFT LANDING.
(SIGNED)
NEB/NY/MPR/LSF/LWM
01-May-97 4:30 PM EDT (2030 UTC)
NNNN
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