Voice of America 04/14/97
NORTH KOREA POLITICS
BYLINE=SHIN NA
DATELINE=SEOUL
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: NORTH KOREA HAS BEEN SUFFERING FROM
A FOOD SHORTAGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS,
AND RECENT VISITORS TO THE COMMUNIST COUNTRY
SAY THE SITUATION HAS REACHED A CRISIS STAGE.
SHIN NA REPORTS FROM SEOUL ON THE POSSIBLE
IMPACT OF THE FOOD CRISIS ON THE STABILITY OF
THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT.
TEXT: NORTH KOREA'S FOOD SHORTAGE IS SAID
TO HAVE REACHED A CRISIS. A NUMBER OF RECENT
VISITORS TO THE ISOLATIONIST COUNTRY, INCLUDING
U-N AID OFFICIALS AND U-S LAWMAKERS, HAVE
SOUNDED ALARMS ABOUT THE SERIOUSNESS OF
THE FOOD SHORTAGE,. THERE ARE PREDICTIONS
OF MASS STARVATION IF FOOD AID IS NOT PROVIDED
IMMEDIATELY.
IN A RARE ADMISSION BY THE ISOLATIONIST
GOVERNMENT, NORTH KOREAN HEALTH OFFICIALS
TOLD UNICEF THAT 134 CHILDREN DIED LAST YEAR
OF MALNUTRITION AND MORE THAN 15 PERCENT OF
NORTH KOREAN CHILDREN DISPLAYED SYMPTOMS
OF MALNUTRITION. SUCH REPORTS HAVE PROMPTED
THE UNITED NATIONS TO APPEAL FOR 126 MILLION
DOLLARS IN EMERGENCY FOOD AID TO THE NORTH.
THE FOOD SHORTAGE HAS REPLACED IDEOLOGICAL
DIFFERENCES AS THE MAIN MOTIVATION BEHIND
DEFECTIONS FROM NORTH KOREA. HWANG JANG-YOP,
THE HIGHEST LEVEL NORTH KOREAN OFFICIAL TO
SEEK DEFECTION SAID IN A WRITTEN STATEMENT
HE DOUBTED THE "SANITY" OF THE PYONGYANG
LEADERSHIP, WHICH IS ALLOWING ITS PEOPLE TO
STARVE. MR. HWANG IS THE AUTHOR OF THE "JUCHE"
OR "SELF-RELIANCE" IDEOLOGY, UPON WHICH THE
COUNTRY'S POLITICAL SYSTEM IS BASED, SO HIS
DEFECTION BEARS SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT AS A
CHALLENGE TO THE STABILITY OF THE NORTH'S
REGIME.
DURING A VISIT TO SOUTH KOREA LAST WEEK,
U-S DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM COHEN SAID THE
COLLAPSE OF THE NORTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT IS
"INEVITABLE". SOUTH KOREAN OFFICIALS ALSO
HAVE COMMENTED ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE
FOOD CRISIS, BUT THEY ARE RELUCTANT TO CONCLUDE
THE NORTH'S FOOD PROBLEMS MEAN THE IMMEDIATE
COLLAPSE OF THE GOVERNMENT THERE. KIM
YOUNG-MIN, A SPOKESMAN FOR SOUTH KOREA'S
MINISTRY OF UNIFICATION BELIEVES THE IMPACT
OF THE FOOD SHORTAGE ON THE PYONGYANG
LEADERSHIP'S HOLD ON POWER HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATED.
/// KIM YOUNG-MIN ACT ///
IT IS APPARENT THAT NORTH KOREA IS SUFFERING
FROM A FOOD SHORTAGE AND THE FOOD SHORTAGE
IS AFFECTING THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE. HOWEVER,
THE IMPACT OF THE SHORTAGE ON THE REGIME'S
STABILITY OR MILITARY STABILITY IS A DIFFERENT
STORY, BECAUSE IT SEEMS THAT THE REGIME STILL
HAS FIRM CONTROL OVER THE SOCIETY AND THE
MILITARY IS STILL UNDER THE REGIME'S POWER, LED
BY KIM JONG-IL. SO WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT
IS GOING ON THERE, BUT THE FOOD SHORTAGE HAS
LESS IMPACT ON THE REGIME'S STABILITY AND
MILITARY STABILITY THAN IT HAS ON ORDINARY PEOPLE.
/// END KIM YOUNG-MIN ACT ///
SOME NORTH KOREA WATCHERS, INCLUDING KIM
YOUNG-YOON OF THE KOREA INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL
UNIFICATION, SAY EVEN IF KIM JONG-IL LOSES POWER,
DUE TO FAILURE TO SOLVE THE FOOD CRISIS, THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT WILL MEAN THE COLLAPSE OF THE
NORTH'S SOCIALIST SYSTEM.
/// KIM YOUNG-YOON ACT ///
THE CONTINUATION OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
MAY ACCELERATE DETERIORATION AND ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO COLLAPSE OF THE NORTH KOREAN REGIME.
BUT EVEN IF KIM JONG-IL LOSES HIS POLITICAL POWER,
THE REGIME COULD BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER POWER
GROUP, FOR EXAMPLE, MILITARY POWER. IN THIS CASE,
THE NORTH KOREAN REGIME WILL BE SUSTAINED
AND CONTINUED. BUT WE CANNOT EXPECT, IN THE
NEAR FUTURE, THE COLLAPSE OF SYSTEM. SYSTEM
COLLAPSE MEANS THE REFORM AND TRANSFORMATION
OF NORTH KOREA'S SOCIALISTIC SYSTEM INTO
CAPITALISTIC AND LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM.
IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR SUCH CHANGE
TO HAPPEN IN NORTH KOREA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
/// END KIM YOUNG-YOON ACT ///
THE NORTH KOREAN MILITARY IS SEEN AS VITAL
TO THE PYONGYANG GOVERNMENT'S POWER. THE
RECENT DEATHS OF TOP MILITARY LEADERS AND
THE REPORTED ARREST OF A VICE MARSHALL FOR
AN ATTEMPTED COUP HAVE LED TO SPECULATIONS
THAT DE FACTO LEADER KIM JONG-IL IS CONSOLIDATING
HIS CONTROL OVER THE MILITARY, BY APPOINTING A
YOUNGER GENERATION OF OFFICERS LOYAL TO HIM.
THE NORTH'S OFFICIAL NEWS AGENCY ANNOUNCED
MONDAY KIM JONG-IL HAS ORDERED PROMOTIONS
OF 123 MILITARY OFFICERS.
RECENT DIPLOMATIC OVERTURES BY PYONGYANG,
SUGGEST THE SEVERITY OF THE NORTH'S ECONOMIC
CRISIS. PYONGYANG HAS REQUESTED A MEETING
BETWEEN ITS DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER AND HIS
U-S AND SOUTH KOREAN COUNTERPARTS IN NEW
YORK ON APRIL 16TH. NORTH KOREA IS EXPECTED
TO GIVE AN ANSWER TO THE JOINT U-S/SOUTH KOREAN
PROPOSAL FOR PEACE TALKS, AIMED AT REPLACING
THE 1953 KOREAN ARMISTICE WITH A PERMANENT
PEACE TREATY. IN THE PAST, PYONGYANG HAS
CITED FOOD AID AS A CONDITION FOR ATTENDING
PEACE TALKS AND ON SATURDAY, NORTH KOREA
CRITICIZED THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTH KOREA
FOR USING FOOD AID AS POLITICAL LEVERAGE
TO PRESSURE PYONGYANG INTO AGREEING TO
PEACE NEGOTIATIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/SN/FC
14-Apr-97 7:01 AM EDT (1101 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
