Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=08/05/02

TYPE= CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=CHINA/TAIWAN (L)

NUMBER=2-292755

BYLINE=LETA HONG FINCHER

DATELINE=BEIJING

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: China has warned Taiwan it is risking serious trouble because of the Taiwanese president's support for a referendum on possible independence for the island. But as V-O-A's Leta Hong Fincher reports from Beijing, China appears unlikely to respond militarily to the Taiwanese leader's remarks.

TEXT: A spokesman for the mainland's Taiwan Affairs

Office, Li Weiyi, accuses Taiwan President Chen

Shui-bian of causing serious damage to relations

between China and Taiwan. At a hastily convened news

conference in Beijing Monday, Mr. Li calls Mr. Chen a

separatist whose advocacy of Taiwanese independence

will damage Taiwan's economy and lead the island

toward disaster.

/// LI ACT IN CHINESE, EST. THEN FADE ///

Mr. Li says China will not permit anyone to split Taiwan from the mainland. The spokesman warns Taiwanese pro-independence forces not to

misjudge the situation, and, as he put it, to

immediately stop the horse at the edge of the

precipice and end all separatist activities.

Over the weekend, President Chen issued his clearest comments on Taiwan independence since taking office more than two years ago. He said the island is a separate country from communist China, and its 23-million people should be free to hold a referendum to decide their own future.

/// LI ACT IN CHINESE, EST. THEN FADE ///

The Chinese government spokesman says Beijing will not

budge from its long-held principle that there is only

one China, which includes Taiwan. Mr. Li says China's

sovereignty and territorial integrity will not be

divided.

He adds that Mr. Chen's comments are another version

of statements made by his predecessor, Lee Teng-hui, in 1999. Mr. Lee - Taiwan's former president, said

the island had a special state-to-state relationship

with the mainland, implying that China and Taiwan are

separate countries.

Mr. Lee's comment at the time provoked China to launch

military exercises near Taiwan. Until now, President

Chen has avoided similar language.

But mainland experts on Taiwan say that for the

moment, China's reaction is likely to be limited to

just words. Yan Xuetong is a professor at the

Institute of International Relations at Qinghua

University.

/// YAN ACT IN CHINESE, EST. THEN FADE ///

Mr. Yan says he believes Mr. Chen's speech hurts ties

between Beijing and Taipei, but is unlikely to

increase military tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

However, Mr. Yan says that if Mr. Chen actually

carries out a referendum on Taiwanese independence,

there would be a heightened risk of military conflict.

China has threatened to attack Taiwan if it declares

formal independence, or resists unification with the

mainland. China and Taiwan have been governed

separately since 1949, when the Nationalists fled the

mainland after their defeat by Communist troops.

NEB/HK/LHF/JP