Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=06/27/02

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

NUMBER=2-291477

TITLE=CHINA-US-SUBS - L ONLY

BYLINE=JIM RANDLE

DATELINE=BEIJING

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Both China and Taiwan are reportedly shopping for advanced submarines to boost their naval forces in the Taiwan Strait. V-O-A's Jim Randle reports these powerful weapons could make any conflict more deadly.

TEXT: Reports in a U-S newspaper and an academic journal say China is haggling with Russia over eight advanced "Kilo" class submarines Beijing wants to buy. China already operates four of the diesel-powered craft. The new ones, estimated to cost one-point-six billion dollars, will be equipped with long-range anti-ship missiles.

The information comes as U-S military officials are set to visit Taiwan next month to discuss the possible six-billion dollar sale of eight diesel submarines to the island.

Taiwan split from China politically amid civil war 50 years ago. Beijing says it wants the island back, peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary. China has not recovered Taiwan, in part because of U-S arms sales to the island's government.

Military expert Ian Storey, from Deakin University in Australia, says a large fleet of Chinese submarines could upset the balance of power in the 160-kilometers of water that separate Taiwan from the mainland.

/// STOREY ACT ///

If the Chinese side had these submarines, that would be a concern for the United States Navy. These Kilo submarines are very quiet vessels, difficult to detect and difficult to kill. These particular submarines would be used to attack aircraft carriers.

/// END ACT ///

Experts say the subs could be used to blockade Taiwan, keeping out ships bringing in raw materials and carrying out exports.

China's Foreign Ministry did not confirm that China is seeking more submarines.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao did say Washington should stop interfering in China's quest to recover Taiwan by selling arms, including submarines, to the island.

/// LIU ACT IN CHINESE, ESTABLISH AND FADE ///

Mr. Liu says Washington is breaking a promise to reduce and eventually stop arms sales to Taiwan. He says Taiwan is the most important issue in relations between China and the United States.

But Washington is pledged to help defend Taiwan against any unprovoked attack.

/// REST OPT ///

On Taiwan, Andrew Yang at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies says relations between China and Taiwan have been reasonably good lately and he sees a conflict as relatively unlikely, anytime soon.

/// YANG ACT ///

I don't think China will risk its own economic losses or create disaster for both sides to trigger warfare against Taiwan.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Yang says the large and growing investment and trade between the island and the mainland give both sides a strong incentive to work things out peacefully. (Signed)

NEB/HK/JR/KPD