Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=11/15/02

TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

TITLE=PETER GRIES, SPECIALIST IN CHINESE POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO

NUMBER=3-423

BYLINE=TOM CROSBY

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=

/// Editors: This interview is available in Dalet under SOD/English News Now Interviews in the folder for today or yesterday ///

INTRO: China's ruling Communist Party has made some major leadership changes. President Jiang Zemin has stepped down from the top leadership post, taking other top leaders with him. Peter Gries (Greece) is a specialist in Chinese politics at the University of Colorado in the western United States. And he spoke with V-O-A's Tom Crosby about the changes at the top in China:

MR. GRIES: Jiang is bowing out gracefully.

MR. CROSBY: We now have a newer, younger leader stepping in. Should that necessarily mean we're going to see some policy changes, though?

MR. GRIES: Not necessarily. And it's very hard to call. Hu Jintao, the new leader, is really still a mystery. I think a little bit was clarified at the beginning of this last summer, when Hu Jintao came to Washington, and met with President Bush. And that was a very important meeting, because now these two men do know each other. And on the side of foreign policy, I think that that belays any fears that the leadership change would have any major impact on China's America policy, for example.

MR. CROSBY: But in knowing each other, what does President Bush now know that maybe he didn't know before?

MR. GRIES: Well, I think he just knows the personal level. And the personal level matters. You know, do people get along or not? I think that makes a big difference, when you know someone face-to-face, and you have a certain familiarity with them. Because we tend to have preconceived notions of the leadership of other countries, and I think that those perceptions and fears, any fears that might be associated with those perceptions, can be, in a way I guess, quenched -- not quite the right word -- but it can allay those fears. I guess would be the way to put it.

I think, probably, Bush is not too worried about the leadership transition. And I don't think that we should really be putting too much weight on it. I think it is common for people in foreign countries to look at the politics of other countries, and see elites as particularly important. This is because we tend to see other countries as unities, as unitary actors, led by particular individuals. And we tend to ignore the various domestic components in the making of foreign policies and the plurality of the various societies and polities of other countries.

This is sort of a common phenomena in international relations. But, I think, it is especially pronounced in countries like China, that are communist. And, especially, coming from the West, we tend to perceive communist countries as very monolithic, and, therefore, we pay a lot of attention to leadership issues. But, I would argue that China today is not the same as the China under Mao, that China today is a much more pluralistic society, and it is a much more pluralistic political process. The individual leaders do not have the power that Mao Zedong did, and, therefore, a change in political leadership is not such a dramatic event with such great ramifications for domestic and international policies, as it was earlier.

MR. CROSBY: Earlier on you said that President Jiang was stepping aside gracefully -- your word. Does he step out of the picture, though, altogether, or does he retain some influence, do you think?

MR. GRIES: Oh, he will retain influence. There is no question about that. Arguably, probably three or four of the new members of the Standing Committee are directly indebted to him for their positions. He will retain tremendous influence. But earlier this summer, there was some speculation that he would not even let go of the formal titles. And the fact that he has let those go, I think, is important. It shows that he is at least concerned with the appearance of a smooth transition.

So, my guess is that, while he will continue to have quite a bit of power through his followers who are in formal positions, he will not step forward prominently and publicly to display that power in order to maintain this appearance of a very smooth transition and the appearance of institutionalization, that Chinese politics is becoming regularized, that this is not Mao's China, and that Chinese politics is not so different from politics in the rest of the world.

MR. CROSBY: If it's not Mao's China, ought we to expect then that Chinese markets might open up a bit more?

MR. GRIES: So, I guess the question is, what will the impact of this transition be on economic reform?

MR. CROSBY: Indeed.

MR. GRIES: I guess my answer would be that it's much too early to tell. It is very unclear what Hu's personal policy preferences are. And to echo what I said earlier, Hu is now just one player in a very complex policy process.

OUTRO: Political scientist Peter Gries (Greece) of the University of Colorado.

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