The Aim of China's Test-Firing of Missiles -- Tensions Are Mounting in the Taiwan Strait
by editorial staff member Shunji Takaoka
Tokyo AERA
4 Sep 95 p 18
[FBIS Translated Text] Beijing is glaring at Taiwanese President Li Teng-hui as a "hidden crusader for the independence of Taiwan." Beijing is also irritated by President Li Teng-hui's visit to the United States, his aim to be reelected, and Taiwan's diplomatic offensive. Beijing is threatening Taiwan with nuclear tests and the test- firing of ballistic missiles into waters near Taiwan, and these threats carry a danger of China using force against Taiwan if they prove ineffective.
"In the past, China has test-fired ballistic missiles in inland areas such as Wusai (in Shanxi Province) and Shuangchengzi (in Gansu Province). From 21 to 26 July, however, China test-fired ballistic missiles into waters about 140 km north of Taiwan. This was a flagrant and intentional threat to Taiwan," says an intelligence official at the Defence Agency.
China test-fired seven vehicle-mounted M-II missiles, each with a range of about 300 km, into waters near Taiwan. One of them fell on Fujian Province after failing to hit the target sea area, and the rest appeared to have landed 10 nautical miles (about 18 km) away from the target sea area. On 17 August, China conducted the second underground nuclear test since the beginning of this year. China's simultaneous ballistic missile test-firing and nuclear test were designed to show off its nuclear attack capability. Furthermore, from 15 to 25 August, the Chinese Navy and Air Force conducted a joint military exercise in waters north of Taiwan, test-firing ship-to-ship missiles. The joint military exercise involved a few surface ships and tens of aircraft.
It is believed that this saber rattling was aimed at blocking President Li Teng-hui from being reelected in the first direct presidential elections scheduled to be held next March in Taiwan.
China Lacks Amphibious Invasion Capability President Li Teng-hui, who was born in Taiwan and graduated from Kyoto University in Japan, has not publicly spoken out for the "independence of Taiwan." Nonetheless, he visited the United States in June to attend an alumni gathering at Cornell University in an apparent attempt to strengthen the international status of Taiwan. He is now expressing hope to visit Japan, too.
If President Li is reelected, and if he stays on as president of Taiwan by the year 2000, this would increase the possibility of making the course more certain for Taiwan to move toward an independent nation.
Taiwan has promoted the modernization of its military strength since 1990. By about 1998, the Air Force will have 150 American- built F-16 fighters, 60 French-built Mirage 2000 fighters, and 130 domestically-built "Chingkuo" fighters. The Navy is expected to commission eight U.S.- designed "Chengkung"-class frigates (with each weighing 4,300 tons) -- with the building of three frigates already completed -- 16 French-designed "La Fayette"-class frigates (with each weighing 3,500 tons) in 1998. The Army will deploy anti-air "Patriot" missiles. Taiwan will have a decisive edge over China in naval and air power.
It is generally observed that China is responding to Taiwan's military buildup by test-firing ballistic missiles, conducting the nuclear test, as well as naval and air joint exercises out of impatience to take some countermeasures. Experts at the Defense Agency believe that China does not have the capability to cross the Taiwan Strait to invade Taiwan. The decisive factor in landing operations is air power, but the only modern fighters that the Chinese Air Force has are 26 SU-27 fighters that China purchased from Russia from 1991 to 1993. The Chinese Air Force has about 500 J-7 fighters, copies of Mig-21 fighters, and a small number of J-8 fighters.
On the other hand, the Taiwanese Air Force has 270 F- 5E and F-5F fighters which are superior to China's J-7 fighters, and 24 domestically-built "Chingkuo" fighters. Taiwan's pilots are highly trained.
If China uses force against Taiwan, it would incur a backlash from Western nations, laying a potential obstacle to the planned reversion of Hong Kong to China in 1997. China's use of force against Taiwan would prompt not only Taiwan, but the United States and Japan to drastically reduce their investments in and trade with China, thereby disrupting China's policy of reform and opening up. Future of Saber Rattling
Once China adopts a saber rattling policy toward Taiwan, it will have no choice but to step up threats to Taiwan if the policy proves ineffective. There have been many cases where China has resorted to the use of force under such circumstances.
China tried to press Vietnam to pull its troops out of Cambodia by massing troops on the border with Vietnam in 1979 when Vietnam invaded Cambodia to topple the pro-China Pol Pot government. China attacked Vietnam, which was promoting its pacification in Cambodia and ignored China's warning, only to be routed by battle-hardened Vietnamese troops.
"Since China raised its fist at Taiwan by test-firing ballistic missiles, it cannot drop the fist to save face before the raised fist generates a certain effect. Even if it is impossible for China to invade Taiwan across the Taiwan Strait, there is a high possibility that China may use force against Taiwan in one way or another by mounting terrorist attacks on Taiwan, or by shelling Jinmen and Matsu Islands," says a senior intelligence official at the Defense Agency.
Another senior intelligence official at the Defense Agency says: "The United States is on close terms with Russia, and has established diplomatic relations with Vietnam. The United States has approached North Korea, and also approved a visit to the U.S. by President Li while exporting large quantities of weapons to Taiwan. China appears to be uneasy about the situation where an encircling net is being laid. If China is driven into a corner, it will take drastic and repulsive actions." The Taiwan Strait is likely to remain highly tense until the presidential election is held next March in Taiwan.
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