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Ukraine-Russian War - World War III.2

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, marked a significant escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that had roots going back to 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatist movements in eastern Ukraine. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia had been simmering since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and pro-Russian separatists declared independence in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, sparking the war in the Donbas. Prior to the 2022 invasion, Russia had amassed a large military presence along Ukraine's borders and in Belarus, claiming it was for military exercises, though Western intelligence predicted an invasion.

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine, which was followed by a full-scale military assault from multiple directions, including from the north (toward Kyiv), the east (from the Donbas region), and the south (from Crimea). Major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, were targeted with missile strikes and ground assaults. The initial aim seemed to be a swift takeover of Kyiv to overthrow the Ukrainian government led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Despite being outgunned, Ukrainian forces mounted a strong defense, slowing Russia's advance, particularly around Kyiv. Civilian volunteers also joined the defense, and international military aid began flowing into Ukraine. President Zelenskyy became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, refusing offers to leave Kyiv and instead rallying the nation and calling for international support. By April 2022, Russian forces withdrew from areas around Kyiv after failing to capture the city. The invasion shifted focus to the eastern Donbas region and southern Ukraine, where Russia aimed to consolidate control over the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Heavy fighting took place in cities like Mariupol, which endured a brutal siege before falling to Russian forces in May 2022.

In the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives, recapturing territory in the Kharkiv region in the northeast and parts of the southern Kherson region. By November 2022, Ukraine recaptured the city of Kherson, marking a significant victory. By the end of 2022, the war had turned into a protracted conflict with heavy fighting continuing in the Donbas and southern regions. Both sides suffered significant losses, but neither achieved a decisive breakthrough.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 16 October 2024 unveiled his long-awaited Victory Plan to end Russia's invasion, rejecting any territorial concessions and urging ramped-up Western backing, including an invitation to join NATO. After pushing back Russian troops at the start of the invasion in February 2022, Kyiv is now facing mounting pressure to find an exit strategy as its troops suffer battlefield losses and Moscow intensifies its strikes on infrastructure. Russia had seized around a fifth of Ukraine's territory since the invasion began, reducing towns and cities to rubble and killing thousands of civilians.

But in his address to lawmakers in Kyiv, the 46-year-old leader ruled out the possibility that Ukraine could cede some territory to secure peace and also dismissed any pause in the conflict. "Russia must lose the war against Ukraine. And this does not mean a freeze (in fighting) and it does not mean any trade in Ukraine's territory or sovereignty," Zelensky said in his speech to lawmakers, flanked by European Union and Ukrainian flags. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's "Victory Plan" outlined a comprehensive strategy to end the war with Russia under conditions favorable to Ukraine. The plan has several key components:

1. The first point is geopolitical. The number one priority in the five-part Victory Plan, the Ukrainian leader said, was closer integration with the US-led NATO defence alliance. The Ukrainian leader urged an unconditional invitation to NATO from the defense alliance. The call comes as key ally the United States faces an election on November 5, with Republican contender Donald Trump urging an end to military aid for Ukraine. "The first point is an invitation to NATO, now," Zelensky said, claiming that Moscow had been undermining security in Europe for decades because Kyiv was not a member.
2. The second point was military. "This is an irreversible strengthening of Ukraine’s defense against the aggressor. It is realistic to defend our positions on the battlefield while also ensuring that the war is brought back to Russia’s territory; so that Russians feel what war is, and despite Russian propaganda begin to turn their hatred against the Kremlin." Zelensky also said that his country's Western allies should lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons so Kyiv can target Russian military sites on occupied Ukrainian territory and also within Russia.
3. The third point was military. He said "Ukraine proposes to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" on its territory. He said the details of this package are secret, but he had consulted with leaders of the US, UK, France, Italy and Germany on the issue. "The Russian leadership acts aggressively only when it is convinced that it will not receive an adequate destructive response. When Russia knows that the response will come, and understands what kind of response it will be, they choose negotiations and stable coexistence even with strategic adversaries." He said he had discussed a secret annex to the "Victory Plan" with the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Germany to deploy on Ukrainian territory a "non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" that would discourage future Russian attacks after the war.
4. The fourth point is economic. Zelenskyy said the US, EU and other allies could back a deal greenlighting joint investments and the utilization of Ukrainian natural resources. "These include, in particular, uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other strategically valuable resources that will strengthen either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world in global competition," he said. With winter approaching, the plan emphasizes the need for robust support to maintain Ukraine's energy infrastructure and economy. Zelensky's discussions with European leaders highlighted the importance of continued financial and military aid, especially as Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.
5. The fifth point of the Victory Plan is security-related. "After this war, Ukraine will have one of the most experienced and largest military contingents. And these are people, real people – our warriors, who will have real experience of modern warfare, successful experience of using Western weapons and diverse experience of interaction, of course, with our partners, with NATO troops. This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the defense of the entire Alliance and ensure security in Europe."

Zelenskyy said his victory strategy could make it possible to end the war in Ukraine no later than next year. He believes that following the war, Ukrainian units could replace certain military contingents of the US military stationed in Europe.

In his address, Zelensky criticised China, Iran and North Korea for their support for Moscow, renewing accusations that Pyongyang was sending its citizens to work in Russian factories and fight alongside Russian forces. "The coalition of criminals along with Putin already includes North Korea," Zelensky told lawmakers. "Everyone sees the Iranian regime's assistance to Putin, and also China's cooperation with Russia." Kyiv dismissed any rival plans to end the war, including those put forward by Brazil and China, saying they lack guarantees for Ukraine's security or the war-battered country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Unlike Zelensky's "Peace Formula," an agenda that stipulates Russia must withdraw all its troops from Ukraine's internationally-recognised borders, the Ukrainian leader had previouslyy given few details about his "Victory Plan." He visited European leaders in a bid to promote the plan and secure as much aid as possible, as future backing from Washington hinges on the outcome of presidential elections next month.

Zelensky was pushing for a significant boost in military aid from Western allies, including long-range weapons that would allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russian territory. The plan stresses that Ukraine cannot negotiate or agree to a ceasefire until Russian forces withdraw from all Ukrainian land. Zelensky's goal is to maintain pressure on Russia to force negotiations while ensuring Ukraine's military capabilities remain strong.

This plan is part of Zelensky’s broader effort to secure a "just end" to the war, one that avoids ceding any territory to Russia and keeps Ukraine aligned with its Western allies. The Wall Street Journal newspaper cited anonymous US officials as saying the plan contains no comprehensive strategy for defeating Russian forces and instead simply reiterates Kyiv's frequent demands for more weapons and permission to use Western long-range weapons on targets within Russia.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told RFE/RL in Brussels on October 16 that Ukraine must receive better and stronger security guarantees because the security of Ukraine is Europe's security. "People in Europe have to understand, I think, that we have been hesitating too much in the past in order to provide the required military capabilities to Ukraine," Borrell said. "And now we don't have to hesitate.... The only way to making [Russian President Vladimir] Putin...go to a negotiation table is to have victory on the battlefield. Otherwise, it would not happen."

The Kremlin immediately dismissed Zelensky's roadmap to end the grinding conflict, describing it as "some ephemeral peace plan". "The only peace plan there can be is for the Kyiv regime to realise the futility of the policy it is pursuing and understand the need to sober up," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters that Zelensky's plan would lead to conflict with NATO and disaster for the Ukrainian people. "He is pushing NATO into direct conflict with our country," Zakharova said, adding that Zelensky could not rely on his Western partners.

Russia had demanded Kyiv abandon territory it already controls in the east and south of Ukraine as a precondition for peace talks. The Russian military announced during Zelensky's address to lawmakers that its forces had captured two more villages in eastern Ukraine, where its forces are steadily advancing. The ministry said the villages of Nevske and Krasnyi Yar had been "liberated", publishing a video of destroyed buildings in Nevske with Russian flags flying from two of them.