Operation Iron Swords - 04-10 August 2024
04 April 2024
After receiving a stormy phone call from US President Joe Biden, who warned him against relying on him if he continued to escalate the conflict, Netanyahu, who is facing an internal rebellion, sent a security delegation including the heads of the Shin Bet and Mossad to Cairo to resume talks on three important issues: the calm in Gaza, the situation in the Philadelphi corridor, and the Rafah border crossing. Yedioth Ahronoth later reported that the Israeli delegation returned from Cairo due to disagreements with Netanyahu.
Netanyahu met 04 April 2024 with the heads of the security services to assess the situation, in Tel Aviv, as part of preparations to thwart the attack. The meeting was attended by Defense Minister Yoav Galant, Chief of Staff Major General Herzi Halevi, Mossad Director David Barnea, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.
One of the options on the table, contrary to what appeared so far, is that if Israel knew in advance of the attack, it would do what it could in the area of ??deterrence, according to Yedioth Ahronoth. Israel points out that - compared to the advance knowledge that existed before the Iranian attack on April 13 - even if the current attack is different - we will know something before it happens. In Israel, they emphasize that if there is solid intelligence that says with 100% certainty that there will be an attack against Israel in a certain place, the option of a preemptive strike is on the table as part of this preparation for countermeasures.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, an Israeli source familiar with the preparations for the escalation said: “If Israel launches a preemptive counterattack… you will have covered up the incident… If you fail to thwart the event in advance and manage to intercept it in the sky, this is also an event in which you need to know exactly what threat it poses to you and whether it is happening in real time… There are many variables (parameters). If we succeed in intercepting the threat from Iran and not from Lebanon, what will happen next? The answer is that there is a basket of options that could happen, and therefore there is a basket of reactions that could happen.”
Hojjat al-Islam Taeb, advisor to the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards , said on 04 April 2024 that the response to Israel's assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), Ismail Haniyeh, will be new and surprising. The Iranian News Agency (IRNA) quoted Taeb as saying that the operation designed to avenge the blood of martyr Ismail Haniyeh will be new and surprising. He added that "the scenario designed to avenge the blood of the martyr Haniyeh is one of the scenarios that cannot be read," and pointed out that the social situation in Israel is disturbed, because they do not know what the Iranian scenario is, and no one invests in Israel economically, and capital is leaving that region.
The Revolutionary Guards advisor explained that "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to turn his defeat against Hamas into a regional war" and bring America into the war. He stressed that the era of American hegemony is over and that its policies do not constitute a deterrent.
The Institute for the Study of War reported 04 April 2024 that Iran could modify the April 2024 attack model in at least four ways to increase the likelihood of inflicting serious damage on Israel.
- Iran could increase the volume of projectiles fired at Israel. Iran could fire more drones and missiles from Iranian territory or instruct its proxy and partner militias across the Middle East to fire more. Drones and missiles fired from Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria would be much harder to intercept than those launched from Iran given the shorter distances and flight times to Israel. US and Israeli forces would have significantly less time than they did in April 2024 to intercept those projectiles.
- Iran could change the number of locations in Israel that it targets. Iran targeted two remote locations in Israel in the April 2024 attack.[7] Iran could exploit the short flight times from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to concentrate fire on a single target rather than against two. Shorter flight times for drones from Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria could make it easier to coordinate them with ballistic missiles fired from Iran. Tehran could alternatively attack a greater number of targets across Israel.
- Iran could order simultaneous attacks on US forces, especially in eastern Syria. Iran only targeted Israeli targets in the April 2024 attack. Iranian-backed militia attacks attacking US positions could, in some circumstances, pull American attention and resources away from identifying and intercepting projectiles bound for Israel.[8] Iranian leaders may calculate that their projectiles have a higher likelihood of penetrating Israeli air defenses if the United States has to focus on defending its own forces.
- Iran and its allies could conduct a series of drone and missile attacks over several days. The April 2024 attack consisted of only one large volley of drones and missiles fired from Iran. But Iran and its allies could fire multiple volleys over an extended period in the next attack. Stretching attacks over this period could enable Iran and the Axis of Resistance to learn and adjust their attacks as they observe how successful each volley is.
Military and strategic expert Brigadier General Hatem Al-Falahi believes that what Iran was exposed to is a major security breach and a blow to Iranian sovereignty. Al-Falahi added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that the nature of the strike that Iran was subjected to compels it to respond by violating Israel's sovereignty over the occupied territories, which makes the issue of striking back by targeting political leaders more likely.
Security and military expert Osama Khaled, he believes - in exclusive statements to Al Jazeera Net - that "Iran is in a very critical position, and that it is facing a real test and a very sharp turn, and it needs a serious and effective response that is commensurate with what happened on its land in terms of infringement on its sovereignty, the assassination of its guest, and the breaking of its security prestige in the region."
Osama Khaled believes that “the political situation is critical for Tehran, and it needs serious and decisive steps to restore the rules of engagement and restore deterrence and the state’s prestige.” He believes that this can be done according to the following scenarios:
- First - an Iranian response similar to what happened last April when Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, with an increase in the quantity and quality of the strikes this time.
- Second: High-level coordination with all resistance axes (Lebanon - Yemen - Iraq - Syria - Gaza) to ensure simultaneous and intensive strikes with distant and close fire of all kinds from several fronts to achieve an unprecedented firestorm in specific areas in Israeli cities, and to focus on sensitive military bases as a priority in targeting.
- Thirdly - Going towards a large, extensive fire strike with an attempt at a ground invasion in parts of northern occupied Palestine, which the Israeli occupation cannot comprehend, and which may force it to react severely towards Tehran and the rest of the fronts, and this in turn may lead to the region igniting and heading towards a comprehensive regional war.
- Fourth: The Israeli occupation will launch a preemptive strike against Hezbollah, Iran, and some other fronts, without waiting for the Iranian response and without remaining under the sword of time, which Israel cannot bear.
The military expert intersects with the previous scenarios, and believes that they may be as follows:
- First: Carrying out political assassinations or striking political targets away from economic and vital targets.
- Second: Directing strikes at vital and military targets, as happened in the response carried out by Iran last April.
- Thirdly, Iran can use various support fronts, such as in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, to strike Israel, leading to an escalation into a comprehensive regional war.
Al-Falahi rules out the third scenario because it represents a qualitative shift in the issue of objectives, which could lead to a comprehensive regional war between the two parties, and this is what Iran, Israel, and the United States of America do not want. Al-Falahi added that the rules of engagement between the two parties suggest that they do not want to escalate into a regional war, and there are many vital and economic targets that can be struck in many areas, whether inside Iran, Lebanon, or Israel, and they have not been struck before, and political assassinations have been sufficient.
Ohad Hemo, on Channel 12, reported that a top source in one of the Arab governments says, "The internal discourse is that Iran is unable to protect its commanders. They are being assassinated in Syria, Iran, and Lebanon, and it can't even guard its guests. How can they guard us?" The assassination attacks undermined their alliances and credibility. Now they have a serious dilemma: If Iran underreacts, it could come off as weak, and this problem will continue. If it overreacts, it could fail to cause Israel much damage despite trying very hard, and the response could be devastating.
05 August 2024
Iran and the Axis of Resistance have a shrinking window of opportunity to attack Israel as the United States moves additional military assets to the Middle East.
Russia’s Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Tehran 05 August 2024 for talks with Iranian leaders amid rising tensions following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The visit highlights deepening Russia-Iran ties and cooperation despite regional unrest.
According to the Washington Post; the Biden Administration has told U.S. Lawmakers that they expect an Iranian Attack against Israel as early as Monday or Tuesday. Donald J. Trump just said while on a Livestream with Internet Personality, Adin Ross, that he heard Israel is going to get Attacked tonight by Iran. Iran convened an emergency meeting with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, aiming to pressure Arab member states to support Tehran's right to respond to Israel's actions.
EMANUEL FABIAN reported 05 August 2024 "The Israeli military has not adequately “dealt” with Hamas battalions in the central Gaza strip, due to concerns that the terror group is holding many Israeli hostages there, according to Israeli sources quoted in a report Monday, which the Israeli military rejected. The CNN report, based in part on analyses by the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War using data running up to July 1, found that eight of the 24 Hamas battalions in the enclave were still “combat effective,” or able to carry out missions against Israeli troops. A further 13 battalions were “degraded,” but still partly operational, the report found, and only three were totally “combat ineffective.... According to the CNN report, some seven Hamas battalions have managed to reconstitute at least once since being severely degraded earlier in the war, either by merging severely degraded cells into new, combat-effective forces, or by recruiting new fighters.”
“If the Hamas battalions were largely destroyed, Israeli forces wouldn’t still be fighting,” retired United States Army Col. Peter Mansoor told CNN, adding, “The ability of Hamas to reconstitute its fighting forces is undiminished.... The fact that they’re still in Gaza, still trying to rout out elements of the Hamas battalions shows me that Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu is wrong” when he says that victory is in sight."
According to the report by CNN: "Several units have made a comeback in key areas cleared by the Israeli military after pitched battles and intensive bombardment, according to the new analyses, salvaging the remnants of their battalions in a desperate bid to replenish their ranks. “The Israelis would say that they cleared a place, but they haven’t fully cleared these areas, they haven’t defeated these fighters at all,” said Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for Critical Threats Project (CTP), who led the joint research with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) into patterns of Hamas and Israeli military activity. “(Hamas) are ready to fight and want to fight.”
“We began to notice a resurgence in Hamas less than a week after Israel withdrew from northern Gaza in January,” said Carter from CTP. “We saw this effect continuing throughout the strip ... This has been the defining process from the Hamas battalions.” “They (Israel) have certainly killed a lot of Hamas fighters, but they’re still out there, and they’re going to be recruiting like crazy based on the kinds of things that Israel has done,” said Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence, National Security and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC.
"US military experts interviewed for this report said that Israel's prosecution of the war, defined by a heavy-handed bombing campaign, and the absence of a post-war plan has helped trigger Hamas' resurgence." One of the reasons they are rebuilding is that they are managing to avoid combat. The IDF was able to stroll deep into Khan Younis with barely any casualties, retrieve bodies and leave. ISW and IDF had different assessments. ISW says a unit is ineffective after 1/3 loses while the IDF’s definition is that the component parts of a unit can no longer coordinate.
06 August 2024
Marc Finaud a senior advisor and associate fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and former French diplomat said "sabotaging any resumption of talks with the United States and the West, especially about Iran's nuclear program, was Netanyahu's goal in launching this new targeted assassination in Tehran. The Israeli Prime Minister seeks to draw Washington into a regional war, expecting American support thanks to the presidential electoral campaign. "
Netanyahu's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said "We bring in aid because there is no choice. We can’t, in the current global reality, manage a war. Nobody will let us cause 2 million civilians to die of hunger, even though it might be justified and moral, until our hostages are returned. Humanitarianism in exchange for humanitarianism is morally justified — but what can we do? We live today in a certain reality, we need international legitimacy for this war."
Saudi Arabia has reportedly told Iranian Officials, that it will not allow Iran to use Saudi Airspace to launch an Attack on Israel, and that any Missiles, Drones, or Aircraft that enter its Airspace will be seen as a Violation of Saudi Sovereignty.
The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt remained in the Gulf of Oman. The Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers, USS Laboon (DDG-58) and USS Cole (DDG-67) have Split from the Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group near the Strait of Hormuz, and have entered the Red Sea heading towards Israel.
Iran's Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has reiterated that the Islamic Republic will deliver a "decisive response" to the Israeli crime of assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas's political leader, on Iranian soil. "The Islamic Republic of Iran will give a decisive and effective response to this criminal act by the Zionist regime," he said. Bagheri made the remarks as he visited Hamas' office in Tehran, where he met with Khaled Qaddoumi, the group's representative to Iran, and paid tribute to Haniyeh, who was assassinated in an Israeli operation in Tehran last week. The Iranian diplomat said that Haniyeh's martyrdom, while a significant loss for the resistance movement, has ultimately strengthened the resistance front across the region. Bagheri asserted that Iran, in accordance with international law, reserves the right to take appropriate measures to defend its national security and sovereignty by responding to this act of aggression on its soil.
Interim Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani says the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, has strengthened the resistance front in Palestine and across the region. "While Mr. Haniyeh's martyrdom is a loss for the resistance, it has strengthened the resistance front in Palestine and the region. The entire Islamic world condemned this criminal assassination," he said as he visited the office of Hamas in Tehran.
07 August 2024
"These people there (in Gaza) deserve death. A hard death, an agonizing death. And instead we see them enjoying on the beach, having fun... There are no innocent people there in the Gaza Strip... They are now enjoying on the beach, instead of starving, being jerked around, being severely tormented and hiding from shelling... We should have seen a lot more revenge, a lot more rivers of Gazans' blood... The only thing that is a problem for me here is that it's not a regulated policy of the state to abuse the detainees, because, first of all, they deserve it, and it's great revenge... maybe it will serve us a little more a a deterrent..." Veteran Israel Hayom pseudo-journalist Yehuda Schlesinger ranted live on Channel 12, the most watched TV channel in Israel.
The advisor to the Iranian negotiating delegation in the nuclear talks Mohammad Marandi said that if the US gets involved in any attack against Iran, its bases in the Persian Gulf region would be destroyed. "No one in the region except for Netanyahu and the people around him wants an escalation. An escalation could mean the end of the global economy. If the United States gets involved in any attack on Iran, have no doubt that the United States will be wiped out in Iraq, and the US bases in the Persian Gulf region will be destroyed and those regimes that host the US bases will be destroyed," Marandi said in an interview for TRT World.
"These are small regimes, very vulnerable, with oil and gas assets. If the Americans strike Iran, they will be responsible because they're hosting American bases. They cannot escape responsibility." So that would lead to economic collapse, he said, adding that everyone has already seen what is going on in the global stock market today. "So the smart thing for the Americans to do is to be very careful about what they do," Marandi emphasized.
"In fact, Iran has no option but to strike Israel even though Iran does not want a regional war." He also criticized the US for not preventing the Israeli regime from carrying out atrocities, saying, "Whatever the Israeli regime does, the regime in Washington will protect it, regimes in Europe will protect it."
During the Emergency Meeting of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on 07 August 2024; the Acting Foreign Minister of Iran, Ali Bagheri said to the Attending Members, “in the absence of appropriate action by the Security Council against the aggressions and violations of the Israeli regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no choice but to exercise its inherent right to legitimate defense against this regime’s action.” The meeting was convened partly at Iran’s request, following the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last Wednesday, an attack that Iran has attributed to Israel. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack.
Bagheri-Kani said that Iranian retaliation is “necessary to prevent further encroachments by this regime on the sovereignty, nationals, and territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” and added that it would be executed “at the appropriate time and in a proportionate manner.” He said that Haniyeh’s killing could not have occurred without “US consent and intelligence support,” and therefore, US responsibility for the attack “should not be ignored.”
Iran's NOTAM warned of "gun firing" between Aug 7-8 around Arak, where Iran heavy water plutonium plant was being built. Tells planes to fly above 12,000 ft. Iran often issues "gun firing" NOTAMs. Experts said may be for prepping/practice air defence. Shashank Joshi recalled "in Oct 1973 Egypt’s aviation minister ordered the return of all Egypt Air planes, panicking Cairo that he’d revealed the decision to go to war imminently. And that - not privileged info - is how Mossad’s spy, Ashraf Marwan, was warned of the timing."
Egypt issued a Notam warning Egyptian carriers not to overfly the Tehran FIR tonight between 0100 and 0400 UTC. Such a Notam from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of airspace disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason. There was another reason, as there was no attack.
08 August 2024
Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah may strike Israel regardless of Iran's decisions on possible response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, CNN reported, citing sources. The Lebanese movement is moving faster than Iran in its preparations and is planning to strike Israel in the coming days, the broadcaster reported. Several officials told the broadcaster that Iran is apparently still mulling over its plans for a response to Israel. A US military official believes Iran has made some preparations, but not all of what the US expected to see before a possible major attack on Israel, the report added.
Israel has recently warned the US that it was concerned that Hezbollah could strike populated areas if it attempted to attack military bases in central Israel. In particular, Israeli officials pointed to inaccurate missile attacks by the movement. "In the internal discussions with the U.S., Israel stressed that the cost of another Hezbollah mishap would be heavy and that Hezbollah would pay a disproportionate price if it harmed civilians as part of its retaliation," an Israeli official was quoted by Axios as saying.
09 August 2024
The Iranian missile attack in April pushed Israel’s air defenses to their limits, despite the fact that Iran did not use its best missiles and Israel being assisted by the US and other allies, Russian military analyst Yuri Lyamin told Sputnik. “A coordinated and more massive simultaneous attack from Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon can break through the Israeli air and missile defense,” says Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “I don’t think that Israel could seriously boost its capabilities in this field by now since so little time has passed [since the April attack].” It is no coincidence, he adds, that the United States seek to bolster Israel’s missile defense capabilities by deploying additional US military assets in the region.
Regarding the capabilities of Israel’s famous Iron Dome air defense system, Lyamin notes that it, just like any air defense system in existence, “does not guarantee 100% protection.” “On one hand, it can be overwhelmed by a massed rocket launch,” he explains. “On the other hand, drones can be hard to detect and the Israeli air defense sometimes lets some of them slip through.”
“We’ve seen some statements from some quarters in Israel over recent days attacking the deal,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. “I just want to underscore how wrong this is, not only in substance, but also jeopardizing the lives of the hostages and running counter to Israel’s own national security interests,” he said. “Some critics, like Mr. Smotrich, for example, have claimed that the hostage deals are a surrender to Hamas or that hostages should not be exchanged for prisoners. Mr. Smotrich essentially suggests that the war ought to go on indefinitely without pause and with the lives of the hostages of no real concern at all.”
10 August 2024
Israel said its strike on a Gaza school has killed Palestinian militants after Palestinian media reported that between 90 and 100 people who were sheltering there had been killed. "Based on Israeli intelligence, approx. 20 Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants, including senior commanders, were operating from the compound struck at the Al-Tabaeen school, using it to carry out terrorist attacks," IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said on X, formerly Twitter. "The compound, and the mosque that was struck within it, served as an active Hamas and Islamic Jihad military facility," he added. Israel justified the strikes by saying it was targeting a command center of the extremist group Hamas. Hamas denied using the school for military purposes.
British Foreign Minister David Lammy condemned Israel's strike on a school in Gaza in a post on X, formerly Twitter. "Appalled by the Israeli Military strike on al-Tabeen school and the tragic loss of life," said Lammy. "Hamas must stop endangering civilians. Israel must comply with International Humanitarian Law," he added. Israel has accused Hamas of hiding behind civilians in Gaza. "We need an immediate cease-fire to protect civilians, free all hostages, and end restrictions on aid," said Lammy.
"Israel is genociding the Palestinians one neighbourhood at the time, one hospital at the time, one school at the time, one refugee camp at the time, one safe zone at the time," Francesca Albanese, said on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
Ramy Abdu, Assist. Prof of Law & Finance and Chairman @EuroMedHR, wrote "Out of over 100 civilians that Israel cold-bloodedly killed, they singled out 19 and falsely claimed they were Hamas members. Four of them were from the Jaabari family, whom I personally know—they never engaged in any political or military activities. Another was an imam, one was my neighbor from the Habib family who had a serious dispute with Hamas, and a university professor from the Kahlout family who never participated in any political work."
Hezbollah announced that it had launched an attack with "swarms of drones" on a military base in northern Israel, in response to the killing of a Hamas official in a raid in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon on Friday 09 August 2024. The party said in a statement that "in response to the attack and assassination carried out by the Israeli enemy in the city of Sidon, the Islamic Resistance fighters launched an air attack on Saturday with squadrons of suicide drones on the Alon Air Base" southwest of the city of Safed.
The party's war media indicated that this was the "first time" that this base had been targeted, since the exchange of shelling across the border between Lebanon and Israel began on October 8, the day after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement.
The Israeli army also confirmed in a statement the "elimination" of Samer al-Hajj, identifying him as "the commander of the military force in the Ain al-Hilweh camp in the Sidon area." This was the first time the Israeli Air Force launched a raid inside the city of Sidon, which is about 50 km from the border, since the escalation with Hezbollah began.
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