Operation Iron Swords - Day 238 - 31 May 2024
“At any point, Hamas could have ended this burgeoning tragedy to
surrender and release every hostage. …
Hamas instigated and owns this humanitarian catastrophe.”
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)
Contents |
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NEW - War Termination NEW - Operations NEW - Operations - Gaza NEW - Operations - Judea-Samaria NEW - Operations - Lebanon NEW - Operations - Syria / Iraq NEW - Operations - Yemen UPDATED - Operations Maps NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - By the Numbers |
"CNN defense analysts have now determined that the Israeli airstrike on May 26th against a Hamas compound in Western Rafah, which was believed to have possibly caused an explosion and fire which resulted in the death of between 35-45 Palestinian refugees, could not have been “Completely Caused” by the Israeli airstrike due to the size of the explosion. Shrapnel and parts which were discovered in the rubble of the Hamas compound, which was roughly 200 Meters from the UNRWA refugee camp, suggest that the strike was carried out using 2 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb with 250lb warheads; these bombs would have not been nearly powerful enough to have caused the explosion at the Camp nor would the have been Large enough to cause any kind of “Splash Damage” to the Camp, which again was over a kilometer from the strike location. This analysis suggests that what Israeli Defense Officials have so far suggested is likely true, which is that Hamas munitions which were hidden roughly half-way between the compound and Camp were detonated by shrapnel from the airstrike, causing the explosion of multiple fuel tanks at the refugee Camp and the eventual fire." OSINTdefender reported.
US President Joe Biden on Friday called on Hamas militants to agree to a new offer from Israel on releasing hostages in exchange for a Gaza ceasefire, saying it was the best way to begin winding down the deadly conflict. Biden's speech came after the Israeli military said it had ended operations in eastern Jabaliya in northern Gaza after destroying tunnels and weapons production sites.
Biden said that Hamas is “no longer capable” of carrying out another large-scale attack on Israel as he urged Israelis and Hamas to come to a deal to release remaining hostages for an extended cease-fire. Biden addressed the nearly eight-month Israel-Hamas war as the Israeli military confirmed on Friday that its forces are now operating in central parts of Rafah in its expanding offensive in the southern Gaza city. “This is truly a decisive moment,” Biden said as he spoke of a three-phase deal that Israeli officials have offered Hamas. “Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a cease-fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it.”
Biden announced that Israel has offered a "roadmap" to a full ceasefire in the Middle East ally's military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including a troop withdrawal and release of hostages. "Here's what it would include: a full and complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded, in exchange for (the) release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners," Biden said in a speech from the White House.
Biden added that the proposed first phase of 6 weeks requires a ceasefire, Israel’s withdrawal, and the release of the hostages and the remains of their deceased. Biden continued that the second phase will witness the release of the remaining hostages, including soldiers, and the maintenance of the ceasefire, while the third phase relates to post-war and reconstruction. The US President said that the continuation of this conflict will exhaust Israel's capabilities and increase its isolation.
He pointed out that the American negotiators focused during the past days on a ceasefire in Gaza that would lead to the end of the war, the release of the hostages, and a better future for Gaza without Hamas. Biden continued, "Israel has the right to defend itself, and if Hamas fails to comply, Israel will resume its self-defense." He also said, "This deal will lead to calm in the region, including the conclusion of a historic agreement between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia."
Biden called on Hamas to accept the new offer from Israel to release the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, saying that this is the best way to begin ending this deadly conflict. "With a ceasefire, this aid will be able to be distributed safely and effectively to all those in need," Biden added. Biden said that the Palestinians were subjected to hell and a very large number of civilians were killed, adding that there is a better future to determine the fate of the Palestinian people.
Biden urged the Israeli leadership to support this agreement despite any pressure, and asked them to slow down and think about what would happen “if we lose this opportunity.” Biden continued, saying: “I know that some in Israel will not agree to this plan, including members of the government.” Biden also stressed that the United States would help formulate a solution on the Lebanese border that would allow residents of the threatened areas north of Israel to return to their homes.
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The first stage lasts 6 weeks and includes:
- A comprehensive and complete ceasefire.
- Withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas in Gaza.
- A number of Israeli prisoners were released, including the wounded, the elderly, and women.
- The release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
- Handing over the remaining bodies of Israeli prisoners in Gaza.
- The return of Palestinian civilians to all areas of Gaza, including the north.
- Aid enters Gaza at a rate of 600 trucks per day.
- The US President said that during these six weeks, which represent the first phase, Israel and Hamas will negotiate to reach the second phase of the deal
The second phase lasts 6 weeks and includes:
- Sustained cessation of hostilities.
- All living prisoners were exchanged, including Israeli soldiers.
- Israeli and Palestinian sides will negotiate a permanent ceasefire during those six weeks, but the truce will continue if the talks remain ongoing.
- "As long as Hamas fulfills its obligations, the temporary ceasefire will become, according to the phrase contained in the Israeli proposal, a permanent cessation of hostilities."
While the third phase, according to Biden, includes the following:
- Post-war arrangements
- Reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
The US President called on the Israeli political leadership not to waste this opportunity, and stressed that if Hamas rejects the Israeli proposal, Israel will continue its war in Gaza. He pointed out that the agreement "will allow Israel to integrate into the region and reach a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia." Biden pledged that the United States would help formulate a solution to the situation on the Lebanese border, stressing that there were risks that Israel's isolation would increase globally. For his part, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that he authorized the negotiating team to present a plan to achieve the goal of the ceasefire. He stressed that "the war will not end until all its objectives are achieved, including the return of all hostages and the elimination of Hamas' military and governmental capabilities."
According to the Mehr news agency , the Hamas movement in an official statement stated: We have a positive attitude towards what was stated in today's speech by US President Joe Biden in his call for a permanent ceasefire, that is, the withdrawal of the occupying forces from the Gaza Strip, reconstruction and exchange of prisoners. The Hamas movement announced that the US position and regional and international consensus on the necessity of ending the Gaza war is the result of the legendary persistence of the Mujahid people and their courageous resistance. In this regard, Hamas announced its readiness to deal positively and constructively with any proposal for a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Zionist forces from the Gaza Strip, the reconstruction of Gaza, and the return of refugees to their places of residence. Hamas also announced that if the occupying regime of Israel declares its explicit commitment to this ceasefire, the exchange of prisoners is also applicable.
The United Nations announced that the Organization's Secretary-General, António Guterres, is counting on the new settlement proposal in the Gaza Strip to lead to long-term peace. The official spokesman for the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Stephane Dujarric, said in a statement on Friday, “Within several months, the Secretary-General was seeking a ceasefire and the full and unhindered access of humanitarian aid, as well as the immediate and unconditional release of all the hostages being held.” In the Gaza Strip. He added that the Secretary-General "is counting on this to lead to the two parties agreeing to a long-term peace."
While stressing that the speech is an admission of Israel’s failure to achieve the goals of the war, the Secretary-General of the Palestinian National Initiative, Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, warned of what he called a dangerous trap that Israel is trying to set for the Palestinian side in cooperation with parties in the American administration. He stressed that Biden said that the proposal was from Israel and did not say that it was from the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , and therefore the ball now is not in the court of the Palestinian resistance, but rather in the court of Netanyahu, who must officially announce his and his government’s acceptance of the proposal.
He explained that the proposal that Biden spoke about included demands for the resistance, including the withdrawal of the Israeli army, although the proposal did not clarify where their withdrawal would take place, highlighting that the issue of a ceasefire in Gaza has not been resolved, as talk about a sustainable end to the fighting in the second phase does not achieve the demands. The Palestinian resistance is in a comprehensive and complete ceasefire.
Barghouti also criticized Biden's talk about normalization without mentioning the Palestinians' right to establish their state.
Regarding how the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) dealt with the proposal put forward by Biden, writer and political researcher Sari Orabi said that Hamas had announced its refusal to receive the Israeli proposal because it had agreed to a previous proposal presented to it by the mediators. He added that the proposal proposed by Biden is consistent with Israeli leaks that said that Israel would make concessions regarding the mechanisms, methods, and numbers of prisoner exchange in the first phase, and would accept to negotiate a ceasefire until the second phase.
Orabi said that the American President in his speech did not talk about a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire in the second phase, but rather about a ceasefire as long as negotiations were continuing regarding the second phase with the aim of reaching a cessation of hostilities, which means that this proposal is not based on the principle of stopping the war.
In the opinion of the specialist in Israeli affairs, Ashraf Badr, Biden was addressing Israeli society and the Israeli elite, and his speech is classified under the umbrella of lifting the cover from Netanyahu, pointing out the necessity of linking the speech with the statements of the head of the National Security Council in Israel, Tzachi Hanegbi, in which he stated that Israel could She goes to implement the first stage of the deal, but she is unable to stop the war in exchange for the return of all the prisoners.
For his part, Ihab Jabareen, a writer specializing in Israeli affairs, said that Netanyahu had one plan, which was to resolve the Gaza battle the day after the US elections, something that Biden understood and took proactive steps for. He added that the two ministers in the Israeli War Council, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot , could exploit the contents of the speech to put pressure on Netanyahu in order to pull the rug of legitimacy from him.
In the same context, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Khalil Al-Anani, believes that Biden’s speech is linked to his election campaign and the judicial ruling issued against former US President Donald Trump, as he considered it an internal victory for him. The jury convicted Trump of 34 charges against him in a case of falsifying accounting records to cover up the payment of $130,000 to silence a pornographic film actress.
A senior Israeli official said, “If Hamas believes that it can dictate conditions or reach a ceasefire through blackmail, then it is mistaken.” Reuters quoted an unnamed Israeli official as saying that there will be no truce or any cessation of fighting in Gaza unless it is part of an agreement on the release of detainees. The official indicated that there is a proposed proposal that includes arrangements for a truce, and that if this offer is not responded to, “Israel will proceed with an intense war in Gaza, and with the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure,” he said.
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the government is united in its desire to return the hostages as quickly as possible, and it is working to achieve this goal. Al-Hurra's correspondent reported that Netanyahu's office said that the Israeli Prime Minister assigned the negotiating team to present broad outlines to achieve this goal, while insisting that the war will not end until all its goals are achieved, including "the return of all hostages and the elimination of Hamas militarily and authoritatively (governmentally)." ). Netanyahu's office added, "The precise outlines proposed by Israel, including a conditional transition from one stage to another, allow Israel to maintain these principles." Netanyahu's office did not clarify whether his proposal was the same proposal that Biden described in his speech, and the Prime Minister's Office statement did not directly address Biden's speech, according to what the Times of Israel noted .
The "Kela Plan" ["all-encompassing"] was a comprehensive strategy devised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the reconstruction and future governance of Gaza. Named after the Hebrew word for "all-encompassing," the plan outlines a multi-stage process aimed at stabilizing and redeveloping Gaza following the recent conflict with Hamas. The plan consists of three main stages:
- Humanitarian Aid: This initial phase, expected to last 12 months, focuses on creating safe areas in northern Gaza free from Hamas control. These areas will be managed by Gazan Palestinians under the supervision of a coalition of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, and Morocco. The coalition will also oversee the distribution of humanitarian aid.
- Reconstruction and Rehabilitation: Spanning the next five to ten years, this phase involves the establishment of the Gaza Rehabilitation Authority (GRA) to oversee reconstruction efforts and manage finances. The GRA will be composed of Gazan Palestinians and will coordinate with a "Marshall Plan" for economic rebuilding and a deradicalization program.
- Self-Governance: The final phase aims for Gaza to achieve self-governance, with Israel maintaining the right to intervene against security threats. This stage is contingent on the successful deradicalization and demilitarization of Gaza, potentially leading to full self-management and integration into the Abraham Accords.
The plan envisions significant infrastructure development, including new cities, trade routes, and industrial zones, transforming Gaza into a key industrial and trade hub in the region.
Further to the warning about the intrusion of a hostile aircraft in the Metula area and the Kela area, this is a false identification.
Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee announced the withdrawal of military forces from Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip and the recovery of the bodies of 7 kidnapped persons. Adraee said in a post on X, “The forces of the 98th Division completed their mission in eastern Jabalia and withdrew in preparation for the subsequent stages of fighting in the Gaza Strip after they recovered the bodies of 7 kidnapped persons.” He confirmed that the division killed hundreds of Hamas fighters "and destroyed 10 kilometers of tunnels." He pointed out that "the forces of the 98th Division fought in eastern Jabalia, above and below the ground, in the middle of an urban area, crowded and booby-trapped."
He accused Hamas of transforming “civilian space into a fortified combat complex,” of “firing toward forces from areas of shelter centers and schools,” and of “creating underground infrastructure from civilian buildings.” He added that the forces destroyed dozens of infrastructure and combat complexes, and found hundreds of weapons, including weapons, explosive devices, hand grenades, and other types of ammunition.
He continued, "Several qualitative workshops were also found to manufacture and destroy weapons," pointing to the raiding of rocket launcher "complexes" and the destruction of their launch pads. He said that the forces found "combat means and intelligence information" about Hamas in the tunnels, and that "the commander of the Beit Hanoun battalion was eliminated" and other fighters who were with him. He pointed out that "the Air Force launched more than 200 air strikes next to the maneuvering forces," during which dozens of militants were eliminated and dozens of infrastructure and weapons warehouses were destroyed.
With the beginning of the fighting in the Rafah area, the fighters of the 401st TDF under the command of Division 162 led the activity along the Philadelphia route. The fighters locate, investigate and destroy many shafts and underground infrastructure in this area. The engineering effort lasted several weeks and was based on intelligence indications, during which the forces located dozens of tunnel shafts and a number of significant signs that were destroyed, some of which are still under investigation. In this activity the fighters encountered the enemy in the underground and eliminated him. Another effort is locating long-range rocket launchers on the Philadelphia axis.
During scans, the forces located five launch sites loaded and ready to fire towards the territory of the State of Israel with several canisters. All the launchers that were located were destroyed. Israeli forces continue to operate and advance on the Philadelphia axis even during these hours, locating and destroying terrorist infrastructures, alongside an effort to allow the introduction of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
Majd 601, Lt. Col. Shimon: "We are in the Rafah area, in front of us we can see the border crossing with Egypt, the Philadelphia axis. We locate and find tunnels, smuggling tunnels and tunnels that allow Hamas to bring means and capabilities that could harm our forces and our citizens. Our mission is very clear - to locate those tunnels, and there are a number of them, and send these capabilities away from the enemy."
The combat teams of the 7th, 460th brigades and the paratroopers under the 98th division fought in eastern Jabaliya on land and underground at the same time, in a dense and trapped urban space. Hamas turned the civilian space into a fortified combat complex, fired at the forces from shelters and schools and set up underground infrastructure in civilian buildings. Owner of land, the forces eliminated hundreds of terrorists in intense battles and close-range encounters and destroyed dozens of terrorist infrastructures and combat complexes.
The forces located hundreds of weapons including weapons, explosives, grenades, ammunition and more. In addition, a number of significant workshops for the production of IEDs were located and destroyed. As part of the dismantling of Hamas' capabilities, the fighters raided a large number of rocket launching complexes, and destroyed ready-to-use launchers. In the underground, the forces located, investigated and destroyed with the cooperation of the soldiers of the 2nd unit in Israel over ten kilometers of underground route. The fighters neutralized charges in the tunnels and found weapons and intelligence information about Hamas.
As part of the underground campaign, Beit Hanon and other terrorists who were with him were eliminated. In thorough fighting above and below ground, the forces of the division rescued seven kidnapped martyrs and returned them to burial in Israel. In the fire effort, directed by the fire complex of Division 98, more than 200 airstrikes were carried out in the vicinity of the maneuvering forces, during which dozens of terrorists were eliminated, most of them at the command level in Hamas and dozens of terrorist infrastructures and weapons warehouses were destroyed. The forces of the 98th Division have completed their mission in East Jabaliya and are undergoing combat procedures and increasing their capacity to continue fighting in the Gaza Strip.
The forces of Division 162 continue to operate in a focused and intelligence-based manner in the Rafah area. The fighters of the commando formation, operating in the center of Rafah together with the Givati military police, located in the area rocket launchers, tunnel shafts and IEDs of the terrorist organization Hamas and destroyed a warehouse of weapons used by Hamas in the area. The fighters of the combat teams of the Givati, Bislah, 401 and Nahal brigades located military equipment, long-range rockets and many means of warfare, including weapons, RPGs, charges, vests and ammunition in the areas of operation. Led by the Air Force and the 215th Fire Brigade, aircraft eliminated a Nakhaba terrorist from the Hamas terrorist organization operating in the Rafah region. The forces of the 98th Division and the fighters of the Yalam unit destroyed hundreds of meters of the route of terrorist tunnels in East Jablia in the last day.
Soldiers of the 460th Israel Defense Forces operating under the division eliminated a number of terrorists in encounters and tank fire. In addition, Air Force aircraft attacked at the direction of the forces and eliminated terrorists from the Hamas terrorist organization operating in the area. Fighters of the 679th TDF under Division 99 continue to operate in the center of the Gaza Strip. The fighters directed an Air Force aircraft that killed a number of terrorists who were operating near Israeli forces.
During the last day, fighter jets and aircraft of the Air Force attacked a large number of terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip. Among the targets that were attacked, IDF warehouses and armed terrorist squads along with terrorist infrastructure and military buildings.
The Israeli army confirmed that at the end of three weeks of ground maneuvers carried out by the 162nd Division, about 20 tunnels were discovered adjacent to the Philadelphia Corridor, which separates the Egyptian side from the Palestinian side, according to the newspaper " Jerusalem Post ", which asked in its report how the Hamas movement was built. These tunnels are under the eyes of the Egyptian army. According to the newspaper, military officials estimated that most of the tunnels cross into Egyptian territory and are used to smuggle ammunition and materials needed to produce weapons.
The Israeli newspaper’s questions about how the Hamas movement (which the United States and other countries classify as a terrorist group) succeeded in building tunnels that extend to Egypt “under the eyes of the Egyptian army” were answered by two military experts who spoke to Al-Hurra website about their explanations for these developments. The newspaper explained that there were about 82 openings near the Egyptian border, and it is estimated that they were connected to smuggling tunnels that could be controlled remotely. Last week, the 162nd Division forces reported the presence of a huge stock of Hamas weapons in the Rafah area.
The newspaper reported that the Israeli army also confirmed that information about dealing with cross-border tunnels had been transferred to Egypt, which sparked criticism within the security establishment. The newspaper pointed out that for years, security officials in Israel have been warning that Hamas runs cross-border tunnels to smuggle weapons, which were allegedly smuggled under the watchful eye of the Egyptian army and police in Sinai, directly from weapons depots in Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas weapons depots in Gaza.
Jerusalem Post explained that a few years ago, the Egyptians, under American pressure, launched a large-scale engineering operation, in which they expelled the entire population of Egyptian Rafah from the Philadelphia Corridor area to a distance of several kilometers, destroyed all the buildings adjacent to the border, dug dozens of meters, and identified tunnels. The Israeli army praised the engineering activity with the assistance of the Egyptian army. However, the newspaper believes that “it is now clear that under the eyes of the Egyptian army and perhaps with the support, knowledge, or turning a blind eye, Hamas has built a network of smuggling tunnels” and has continued to strengthen its capabilities despite Egypt’s commitment to fighting terrorism in the Sinai region.
Israeli military officials recently said that the Israeli army and the Egyptian army are cooperating closely, including in the tunnel issue, but the newspaper explained that the officials claimed that Egypt owes explanations for what the 162nd Division discovered on the ground. Therefore, more stringent measures and mechanisms must be taken to prevent tunneling in the future. The newspaper pointed out that the process of exposing the tunnels in the Philadelphia Corridor has just begun, and there is still a narrow section near the sea that the Israeli army has decided not to deal with at this stage, and in the near future the stage of mapping and destroying the tunnels will begin.
The Israeli National Security Advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, had indicated in an interview with the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation (KAN) that Israel must “ensure with the Egyptians that smuggling does not occur through tunnels” under the border. Hanegbi said in the interview that Israel "must close the border between Egypt and Gaza." Since the outbreak of the most violent war ever in Gaza in response to the Hamas attack in October, Israel has repeatedly reported ongoing smuggling through tunnels under the border.
An Egyptian official accused Israel of using allegations of the existence of tunnels on the border with the Gaza Strip to justify its military operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to what the Cairo News Channel reported on Wednesday, quoting a “senior Egyptian source.” The channel, which is close to Egyptian intelligence, quoted the senior source as saying, “There are no communications with the Israeli side regarding the allegations of the existence of tunnels on the Gaza Strip border with Egypt.” The source added, "Israel is using these allegations to justify continuing the Palestinian Rafah operation and prolonging the war for political purposes," stressing that "the Israeli media reports that talked about the presence of tunnels on the Egyptian border with the Gaza Strip are incorrect."
The head of the Egyptian State Information Service, Diaa Rashwan, had accused Israel of using allegations to justify its “illegitimate occupation” of the Philadelphia axis. In January, Rashwan said that Egypt had completely destroyed these tunnels, established a buffer zone, and strengthened border control in a step that “makes any smuggling operation impossible, whether above or below the ground.”
Major General Mahmoud Abdel Salam Amin told Al-Hurra website, “Since 2013, Egypt has fought a difficult war against terrorists in North Sinai, and as a result it has already destroyed hundreds of cross-border tunnels with Gaza that were used to transport fighters and weapons.” He added, "The evidence of the success of Egyptian tactics is the disappearance of terrorist threats that were widespread in this region, such as the repeated cutting of gas pipelines between Egypt and Israel, and committing bombing operations to target civilians."
He continued, "To resolve the Sinai crisis and the skirmishes on the Egyptian border with Rafah, we must not rely solely on military solutions as Israel is currently doing, because the process of discovering and clearing all the tunnels is extremely difficult and may take years and requires a huge budget, which both Egypt and Israel will not be able to bear, especially With the Governor of the Bank of Israel announcing that the cost of the war on Gaza, until 2025, will reach 250 billion shekels (about 73 billion US dollars).”
The military expert explained, "Governments must have other cards in their hands to play, such as diplomacy and statesmanship, to gain greater control over the course of affairs in the region, as well as incursion among the people." He pointed out that "Egypt's recent decision to form the Sinai Tribes Union headed by the Sinai businessman, Ibrahim Al-Arjani, is a smart political move that is needed at this time because it ensures greater rapprochement between the regime and what is happening on the ground in Sinai and on the Egyptian border."
He said, "Instead of the Netanyahu government accusing the Egyptian side of negligence, it should calm down a little and calculate its steps more effectively to achieve its declared goal of its military operations, because killing more Palestinian civilians or accusing or blaming Egypt will not solve its crisis and will not help it succeed." In eliminating Hamas or even controlling the tunnels.”
Tensions have been rising between Israel and Egypt, the first Arab country to recognize the Hebrew state, since the Israelis ignored international warnings and went ahead with a ground operation in Rafah earlier this month. Control of the Philadelphia axis comes only weeks after Israeli forces took control of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, on May 7. The Salah al-Din Axis, known as the Philadelphia Axis, extends within the Gaza Strip from the Mediterranean Sea in the north to the Kerem Shalom crossing in the south along the Egyptian border, which is about 14 kilometers. The peace treaty signed in 1979 considers it a buffer zone, and Israel withdrew completely from it as part of its disengagement plan. In the Gaza Strip in 2005. On Tuesday, Israeli tanks were stationed in the center of the city of Rafah, where the United Nations says 1.4 million people, the majority of whom are displaced, are taking shelter.
The military expert, Major General Staff Abdel Moneim Ghaleb, told Al-Hurra website, “The goal of Israel’s escalation is the government’s attempt to calm the Israeli interior in light of not achieving any real victory on the ground, and at the same time, attracting American and international pressure on Egypt to push it to open its borders to receive... The Palestinians and their involvement in the conflict, as the Netanyahu government had hoped,” while the Egyptian position is expected to continue “in a state of alert and vigilance towards Israeli movements, and monitoring any violation of the peace treaty.” He added, "These Israeli accusations against the Egyptian side aim to distract attention from Israel's violation of the Camp David Accords by declaring its control over the Philadelphia axis."
Ghaleb doubted the Israeli story, saying, “Militarily, the discovery of open tunnels in Palestinian Rafah does not mean that they are still open from the Egyptian side, because they may have been closed and have become outside of any work related to Hamas.” The military expert pointed out that it is natural for Israel to make such statements from time to time to justify its presence in this way on the Egyptian borders, to justify its position internally and globally, and to show that the intransigence of the Egyptian side causes a delay in the results of the war in a positive way for Israel so that it does not appear to be a failure, especially with The embarrassment that the Netanyahu government is suffering after the videos published by Hamas, which show their continued presence and confrontation with Israeli soldiers inside the tunnels.”
In general, the military expert believes that “Israel will not antagonize Egypt more than just making such statements because it is not in its interest or Cairo’s interest to enter into any direct confrontations.”
Al-Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) - broadcast scenes of the targeting of Israeli occupation soldiers and vehicles in various areas of advance in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip. The scenes included the targeting of an Israeli tank with an anti-tank missile, the " Al-Yassin 105 ", and the detonation of an explosive device, targeting 4 Israeli soldiers who were inside a building.
The Qassami scenes also included a series of sniper operations with the “Ghoul” rifle, directly wounding Israeli soldiers in various places, as well as the bombardment of the occupation crowds with mortar shells on the front lines of advance. Two days ago, Israeli Army Radio revealed that 3 soldiers were killed and others were injured following the detonation of an explosive device planted inside a building in Rafah at the moment a force from the 50th Battalion of the Nahal Brigade entered, leading to its collapse.
Operational Update - Judea-Samaria
Yoav Galant, did not succeed in amending the confusing image of the Israeli leadership in the face of Hezbollah, nor in strengthening the image of the army bound by rules of engagement that imposed controlled operational performance on it, nor in creating a serious impact on those to whom it wanted to send messages at home and abroad. It is known that Nasrallah has never claimed at any time that there were no martyrs. Rather, he publicly confirmed on more than one occasion that the party is proud of its martyrs, whose funeral ceremonies are broadcast live.
Following the warning that was activated in the area of the city of Acre, the air defense fighters successfully intercepted an unmanned aircraft that crossed into the country from Lebanon. A warning of rocket and missile fire was activated for fear of falling interceptor fragments. Fighter jets attacked a military structure in the A-Nakura area where a terrorist squad was identified. In addition, a terrorist identified in the Yaron region was attacked. In addition, another warning was activated about the infiltration of a hostile aircraft in the north of the country, during which two explosive drones were identified that crossed over Lebanese territory and fell in a small area, there were no casualties and the incident is being investigated. During the day, one launch was detected from Lebanese territory towards the Metula area, there was no damage and no casualties. IDF forces attacked the source of the shooting. During the night, warplanes attacked four military buildings of the terrorist organization Hezbollah in the areas of Itatron and Merkaba in southern Lebanon.
Hebrew media reported that the Israeli army monitored the launching of 3 missiles from southern Lebanon towards areas in the north of the country, today, Friday, causing a fire to break out. Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that the army monitored the launching of 3 missiles from southern Lebanon towards the areas of Baruch and Kfar Yuval in the Upper Galilee (north). The newspaper quoted the Upper Galilee Regional Council as saying that the missiles caused a fire in one of the sites in the Upper Galilee, without causing any injuries or damage.
Hezbollah has announced that it has carried out several attacks against Israeli targets. He said that he targeted the Iron Dome platforms in the Zaoura camp in the occupied Golan with assault marches, causing them to be damaged and set on fire. The party also bombed with “Barkan” missiles the “Branit” barrack and the “Al-Baghdadi” site, and targeted the “Maayan Baruch” site and the “Ramot Naftali” settlement in the Upper Galilee, and targeted a building used by Israeli soldiers in the “Shomera” settlement. Al Jazeera's correspondent reported that two missiles were fired towards the Israeli site of Zabdin in the occupied Shebaa Farms in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah said in a statement: “In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their brave and honorable resistance, and in response to the Israeli enemy’s attacks on the steadfast southern villages and safe homes, especially the attack on the town of Maroun al-Ras, the Mujahideen targeted On Friday, May 31, 2024, the Islamic Resistance fired heavy Burkan missiles at the Beranit Barracks (headquarters of the 91st Division) and hit it directly, leading to its burning and the destruction of part of it .
The southern Lebanese border has recently witnessed a significant increase in the number of operations , while the Commander-in-Chief of the International Emergency Forces operating in southern Lebanon, Aroldo Lazaro, urged all parties to cease fire and exercise restraint.
Operational Update - Syria / Iraq
Yemen's Houthis launched a missile attack in the direction of the US aircraft carrier Eisenhower in the Red Sea in response to US and British strikes on Yemen, the Iranian-backed group's military spokesperson Yahya Saree said on Friday. A US defence official told Reuters they were not aware of any attack on the Eisenhower. Six US and British strikes have killed 16 people and wounded 41, including civilians, Saree said in a televised statement. Strikes on the province of Hodeidah targeted the port of Salif, a radio building in Al-Hawk district, Ghalifa camp and two houses, Saree said.
Maps
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All maps are lies. “Not only is it easy to lie with maps, it is essential,” wrote cartographer Mark Monmoneir in his book How to Lie with Maps. He showed that condensing complex, three-dimensional spaces onto a two-dimensional sheet of paper [in old days] is bound to be reductive. But it is impossible to comprehend the war in Gaza without reference to maps, otherwise the entire conflict is reduced to an endless series of meaningless acts of random violence and the suffering of civilians. The first characteristic of guerrilla warfare is the loss of a front line. Evidently, different mappers have different ideas of how to depict the war in Gaza, notably those that seek to depict Israeli progress in the ground campaign. Part of the problem is latency. The news that forms the basis of the maps takes time to filter out to mappers, and the cartographers take time in crafting their maps, and it takes time to curate them. These processes are uneven among mappers, so their maps may differ in detail. Probably there is some ideological bias, or at least thematic apperception, which is understandable in wartime. It may come as no surprise that al-Jazeera maps depict rather less Israeli territorial progress than other sources. Finally, there remains the epistemological question of just exactly what are the colored in areas depicting. Naively, this might be understood as areas of Israeli control, that are no longer contested by the HAMAS. Or possibly these are areas of Israeli presence, in many of which the possibility of an RPG-wielding HAMAS militant popping out of a tunnel unexpectedly remains a live possibility. With the "zero-range" combat characterized by small unit tactics on both sides, maps may be prey to a fallacy of misplaced concreteness.
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Bystanders
Daily life has become "apocalyptic" in parts of southern Gaza since Israel moved into the city of Rafah, though the situation in the north is improving, the UN's food agency said Friday. "The exodus that we've seen in the past 20 days or so out of Rafah has been an awesome and horrific experience for many, many people," Matthew Hollingworth, the World Food Programme (WFP) director for the Palestinian territories. They have fled the fighting to areas where there was not enough water, healthcare or fuel, where food was limited, telecommunications had stopped and there was not enough space to dig pit latrines, Hollingworth told an online briefing.
The public health situation was "beyond crisis levels", he said, adding: "The sounds and smells of everyday life are horrific and apocalyptic." People "sleep to the sounds of war... and they wake to the same sounds", he said. The WFP was able to provide "ever decreasing amounts of assistance", with all of its bakeries in Rafah closed due to a lack of fuel and supplies, he said.
Axis of Resistance
The head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), Ismail Haniyeh, said that there is no concession to a permanent cessation of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, stressing that the Palestinian people will not accept an alternative to resistance, while a senior Israeli official confirmed that there is no truce without the prisoners. Haniyeh added - in a speech at the Arab National Conference held in the Lebanese capital, Beirut - that “regarding what is said about a new Zionist position on the exchange and ceasefire deal, the resistance has once again informed the mediators that the established rules of the position of the resistance factions cannot be given up,” according to a statement by the movement.
Haniyeh explained that the rules are a permanent cessation of aggression, the occupation’s withdrawal from Gaza, the lifting of the siege, reconstruction, and an honorable deal for exchange. He stressed that the great sacrifices and changes must be invested in the interest of the Palestinian cause and move forward towards completing the liberation and return project, as he put it. The head of Hamas' political bureau explained that the liberation project is based on the formation of a unified national leadership within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization and a national consensus government in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. He continued that the liberation project is also based on holding general presidential and legislative elections and forming a Palestinian National Council.
Haniyeh called for coming up with an integrated plan of action based on the concept that the post-October 7 stage differs from what came before it, noting that the Al-Aqsa flood raised the Palestinian issue to an unprecedented level globally, and opened the door to embodying recognition of the rights of the Palestinian people.
Yesterday, Thursday, the Hamas movement announced - in a statement - that it had informed the mediators of its readiness to reach a full agreement that includes a comprehensive exchange deal “if the occupation stops its war and aggression against our people in Gaza.” This statement came in the movement's first comment on the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation's announcement, last Tuesday, that Tel Aviv handed over to Egyptian and Qatari mediators its proposal to renew prisoner exchange negotiations with Hamas and a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation concerns everyone, and that the battle, as it concerns Palestine, also means the future of Lebanon and its water and oil resources. In a televised speech, Nasrallah considered that “the battle of the Al-Aqsa flood (which the Palestinian resistance in Gaza is waging against Israel) is a battle of existence and destiny, and Israel’s victory in it will leave very serious effects on all the peoples of the region, and its defeat will have many great effects on the region and its peoples.”
He pointed out that "the Southern Front (Lebanon) continues its work, and is part of the battle that shapes the fate of Palestine, Lebanon, and the region." Nasrallah pointed out that "the Prime Minister of the Israeli enemy, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his lunatics continue the war of extermination in Gaza and Palestine, in the face of the silence of countries and rulers, but thank God these crimes awaken the world."
Nasrallah announced the implementation of an operation a few meters away from an Israeli site, saying, "If our fighters wanted to storm it, they would have entered it." Since last October 8, Lebanese and Palestinian factions in Lebanon, most notably Hezbollah, have exchanged intermittent daily bombardments with the Israeli army across the dividing “ Blue Line ,” resulting in hundreds killed and wounded, most of them on the Lebanese side. The factions say that they stand in solidarity with Gaza.
Allied for Democracy
Will the Knesset be dissolved? What impact will this have on the war in Gaza? Questions that accompanied the announcement by Benny Gantz’s party, a member of the Israeli war government, of submitting a draft law to dissolve the “Israeli Legislative Council and hold early elections.” On Thursday, a centrist political coalition led by Gantz proposed holding a parliamentary vote to dissolve the Knesset, “Parliament.” This step comes in the wake of a deadline Gantz granted to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this month to "define a clear strategy for the war in Gaza before June 8," threatening to withdraw from the war government if the Israeli prime minister did not present such a plan.
The Knesset has 120 seats, while Netanyahu's right-wing coalition controls a comfortable majority of 64 seats, while Gantz's coalition has only eight seats in Parliament. To form a government, it is necessary to obtain the support of at least 61 representatives from the Knesset. Israeli political analyst Eddie Cohen says, "The government coalition is strong and includes 64 seats." Therefore, “Gantz cannot dissolve Parliament and overthrow the government,” according to his interview with Al-Hurra website.
As for the Israeli political analyst, Joab Stern, he confirms that “dissolving the Knesset is only possible with a majority.” This matter “does not currently exist,” as Netanyahu and the government coalition have a “majority” in the Knesset, according to what he told the Al-Hurra website. The current government “is not interested in going to elections,” because that would be an “implicit admission” of responsibility for what happened on October 7 and the failures after that date on more than one level,” Stern points out. Stern does not expect “early elections to be held,” unless “Netanyahu wants to do so,” and he believes that “he has a majority in the next elections.”
For his part, Israeli political analyst, Shlomo Ganor, explains that if “the project is put forward and fails in the voting process,” it cannot be put forward again until 6 months have passed, and therefore the matter is considered a “stroke of luck.” The vote could be achieved by a "majority", but in light of the presence of the "solid" government coalition and the presence of an "overwhelming majority" in the Knesset in favor of Netanyahu, this matter is "unlikely", according to what he told the Al-Hurra website. Therefore, the proposal's chances of success are "very, very weak," Ganor asserts.
A new American intelligence assessment raised doubts about whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would remain in power, amid warnings of a “danger surrounding the right-wing coalition” in Israel, and at the same time renewed protests in the street.
Gantz threatened to resign from the war government if Netanyahu did not agree to the post-war plan for the Gaza Strip. The war government in Israel includes 5 members, most notably Netanyahu, Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot, and Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Gantz, Netanyahu's political rival and former defense minister, agreed to join the "war government" after the October 7 attack.
Therefore, Stern believes that “Gantz is taking his last steps within the government, and will leave it soon.” The Israeli political analyst confirms that "as long as there is a war, it is difficult to go to elections and most of the public is not interested in that," while the opposition and the families of the kidnapped do not have enough power to convince the government to "go to early elections." Stern wonders: “Will we see the public take to the streets? Will we see more protests?” adding, “This may be possible.”
Escalating protests, calls for mass demonstrations, and demands to hold early elections, amid “internal coalition” disputes, are several challenges facing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which raises questions about the extent of the possibility of “the fall of his government and his departure from power.” For his part, Cohen points out that “Gantz wants to justify his exit from the coalition.” Gantz has "personal ambitions. He is an opponent of Netanyahu. He wants to run for the position of prime minister, and he must withdraw so that he can enter the electoral battle," according to Cohen. He confirms "the decline in Gantz's popularity" because he has "personal ambitions and nothing more than that," as he put it.
As for Ganor, he points out that “if Gantz withdraws from the war government and does not change his position,” this will lead to the concentration of powers in the hands of “Netanyahu alone.” A new war council may be formed with the participation of the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, and the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, according to the Israeli political analyst. Without Gantz, Netanyahu's Likud Party, in addition to his far-right allies, will continue to dominate the majority of seats in the Knesset. This means things go from “bad to worse,” as Ganor puts it.
As a member of the war council, Gantz helped manage the Israeli attack on Gaza before tensions emerged as the military operation proceeded. Ganor confirms that Gantz's withdrawal "will not affect the course of the war in Gaza," because "operational plans are already in place." But perhaps it might increase “the pressure on Israel to move forward with regard to discussing the issue (what happens after the end of the war)?” Ganor explains. He stresses that "the dissolution of the war council or the loss of two generals, Gantz and Eisenkot," will have a "negative impact in terms of managing the war from an operational and intellectual standpoint," given that they possess "a lot of military experience."
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that an internal poll in the Israeli army showed that only 42% of officers in permanent military service want to continue serving after the end of the war on the Gaza Strip, compared to 49% recorded in August last year. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth described these data as disturbing and interesting, and that they stunned the leadership of the Israeli army and considered them a worrying decline in the willingness of permanent officers to continue their military service.
At the same time, the newspaper noted an increase in officers' requests to retire from the army during the war. The newspaper attributed the reasons for the officers’ dissatisfaction to the long duration of the war, the damage to the officers’ family life, and inappropriate compensation, in addition to the pressure and responsibility that some jobs entail.
Yedioth Ahronoth added, "It is not surprising that there is a gap between the military system and the private sector, but the double gap represents anger and resentment among those who serve in the army." The newspaper quoted an unnamed senior Israeli army officer as saying: “The permanent officers feel responsible for the harsh consequences of the war. The feeling of failure haunts the officers and they do not want to serve in a failed apparatus.”
Haim Ramon, the former Israeli minister, said that Israel is on the verge of an unprecedented strategic defeat, and that its failure in the war on the Gaza Strip is clear, despite the tactical achievements that have been achieved, as he put it. Ramon added, in an article in Maariv newspaper on Friday, that the Israeli press is hiding from the public the fact that the Israeli army failed to subjugate what he called Israel's weakest enemies, and that it did not have an integrated plan to occupy Gaza. He also pointed out that the government failed to achieve the war goals it set.
Ramon said that the Hamas movement was able to restore its strength in every place from which the Israeli forces withdrew, noting that the army was surprised by the number of fighters in Jabalia after it said that it had subdued the Hamas brigades there during the first round.
Earlier, Israeli Channel 13 quoted National Security Council Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi that Israel had not achieved any of the goals of its war on the Gaza Strip. He added: "We did not eliminate Hamas, we did not provide conditions for the return of the prisoners, and we did not return the residents of the Gaza Strip to their homes safely." He said that the army says that achieving war goals requires several years, not one year. He continued that the War Council did not specify any clear goal for northern Israel and did not set a date or strategic goals.
Recently, criticism has escalated against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant , due to their inability to achieve the war goals they declared, most notably the dismantling of Hamas and the release of detainees in Gaza. Haaretz newspaper published an investigation into the failure of Israeli intelligence to anticipate the attack of last October 7, which concluded that contempt, denial, and the cessation of collecting information about the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) for more than two years in the Israeli army led to the flood of Al-Aqsa .
The newspaper confirmed that the Israeli intelligence failure continued after the start of the war on the Gaza Strip, stressing that the Hamas movement violated the expectations of the Israeli army and most of its members did not enter the tunnels after the war.
Police in riot gear surrounded arm-in-arm protesters Friday at the University of California, Santa Cruz, where pro-Palestinian demonstrations have blocked the main entrance to the campus this week. Campus, local and state police swarmed the protesters, and video showed officers telling people to leave, then taking away signs and part of a barricade, local news stations reported. There appeared to be some pushing and shoving between police and protesters. Officers carried zip ties and appeared to detain a few people.
A university spokesperson said arrests were made, KION-TV reported. The university didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment. It wasn’t known if anyone was injured. The university was holding classes remotely Friday. “We call on these protesters to immediately reopen full access to the campus and return to protesting in a manner consistent with both our community values and our student code of conduct. Denying instructional access is not free speech,” university leaders had said in a letter to the community Thursday. Graduate student workers at UC Santa Cruz continued a strike that began last week over the university system’s treatment of pro-Palestinian protesters.
Operation Iron Swords - By the Numbers
- 1,900,000 IDPs in Gaza
- 82,057 Gazans injured, 28% adult male
- 70,000 tons of explosives dropped on Gaza
- 70,000 Gaza housing units completely destroyed
- 70,000 Israeli IDPs from Lebanon border
- 45,000 bombs dropped in Gaza
- 45,000 Gazans killed, including buried under rubble
- 36,284 Gazans martyred
- 33,000 Gaza targets attacked
- 20,528 Palestinians in Israeli prisons [Haaretz, 20 Mar 2024]
- 16,093 Israelis injured [i24 TV]
- 15,000 terror operatives killed in Gaza [Israeli officials]
- 15,000 rockets launched from Gaza
- 14,520 Gazan children martyred
- 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [N12]
- 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [IDF]
- 11,000 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank in 2023
- 10,000 Gazans missing under the rubble
- 9,920 Gazan women martyred
- 9,400 Palestinians in Israeli prisons
- 9,000 IDF needing psychological assistance
- 8,890 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank since Oct.7th
- 7,209 IDF injured admitted to rehabilitation [IDF]
- 6,800 IDF officers and soldiers injured [Channel 12]
- 6,000 HAMAS combatants killed [HAMAS]
- 5,500 IDF wounded [reports]
- 5,000 West Bank Palestinians wounded
- 4,700 sites targetted in Lebanon
- 3,850 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria
- 3,600 administrative detainees
- 3,657 IDF wounded [IDF]
- 2,100 Gazan women are missing
- 1,843 IDF wounded in Gaza [IDF]
- 1,609 terrorists killed on the first day
- 1,650 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria affiliated with Hamas
- 1,160 Israelis killed on the first day
- 635 Israeli officers and soldiers killed since the start of the war
- 518 West Bank Palestinians martyred
- 446 people [including fighters] killed in Lebanon
- 287 Israeli officers and soldiers killed in Gaza
- 289 Hezbollah fighters killed in Lebanon
- 126 people recovered, including 91 Israelis, 11 bodies, and 24 foreign workers
- 86 living hostages in Palestinian custody
- 70 civilians killed in Lebanon
- 39 dead hostages in Palestinian custody
- 29 IDF deaths were caused by "friendly fire"
- 15 Israelis killed in the West Bank and Israel
Not every number is reported every day, so sudden jumps generally reflect reporting artifacts rather than actual upticks. Many of these numbers fluctate, up and down, with no apparent explanation. This list records the highest number reliably reported for each matter, under the theory that reality with catch up with reports, as is relentlessly the case.
Some reports claimed that the UN cut in half its earlier estimates of women and children killed in Gaza. Initially, they reported 9,500 women and 14,500 children killed, but later revised it to 4,959 women and 7,797 children on 08 May 2024. The UN acknowledged its inability to independently verify casualty figures. The seeming discrepancy is that HAMAS had about 10K KIA bodies on hand for which they do not have positive ID. It is possible to report the gender and approximate age [ie, juvenile] without knowing the name of the deceased.
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