Operation Iron Swords - Day 226 - 19 May 2024
“At any point, Hamas could have ended this burgeoning tragedy to
surrender and release every hostage. …
Hamas instigated and owns this humanitarian catastrophe.”
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)
Contents |
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NEW - War Termination NEW - Operations NEW - Operations - Gaza NEW - Operations - Judea-Samaria NEW - Operations - Lebanon NEW - Operations - Syria / Iraq NEW - Operations - Yemen UPDATED - Operations Maps NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - By the Numbers |
In an interview on the Call Me Back podcast with Dan Senor, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed startling statistics regarding the casualties in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu stated that the ratio of Hamas combatants to Gazan civilians killed is approximately one to one, with around 14,000 Hamas combatants and an estimated 16,000 civilians having lost their lives.
HAMAS reported casualy estimaes indicate roughly 2.25 wounded for every one killed. This would suggest a bit over 30,000 combatants wounded. Combined with the claimed 14,000 KIA, the total of about 45,000 casualties rather exceeds pre-war estimates of about 30,000 HAMAS combatants. Possibly the casualty reports relates to all combatant militants in Gaza [PIJ, etc], which together amounted to possibly 15,000, suggesting a pool of abot 45,000 combatants, about the number of projected casualties.
If [in round numbers]. all of the Islamic militants in Gaza have been killed or wounded, who is firing at the IDF?
The term "uncounted enemy" in the context of the Vietnam War refers to the complex and often misleading metrics used to measure progress during the conflict, particularly the focus on body counts. The U.S. military strategy heavily relied on the notion that success could be quantified by the number of enemy combatants killed. This approach was based on the assumption that attrition—killing enough enemy soldiers—would eventually lead to victory by eroding the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army’s ability and will to fight. However, this method proved to be highly problematic for several reasons:
- Inflated Body Counts: There was significant pressure on military units to report high body counts, leading to exaggerated or falsified numbers. This was partly due to the career incentives for officers who showed high enemy casualties, which supposedly indicated successful missions.
- Mis-identification of Civilians: Many Vietnamese civilians were mistakenly identified as enemy combatants. This not only skewed the data but also led to atrocities and alienation of the local population, undermining the U.S. effort to win "hearts and minds."
- Ineffectiveness of Attrition: The North Vietnamese and Viet Cong were highly resilient and had the capacity to replace losses more effectively than anticipated. The U.S. military underestimated the enemy’s resolve and the extent of their support among the local population.
- Non-Traditional Warfare: The guerrilla tactics employed by the Viet Cong did not lend themselves to traditional measures of military success. Control of territory and winning local support were often more crucial than the number of enemy killed.
The focus on body counts as a primary metric of success was ultimately flawed and did not provide an accurate picture of the war’s progress. This reliance on quantitative measures failed to account for the political, social, and psychological dimensions of the conflict, contributing to the eventual U.S. withdrawal and the fall of South Vietnam.
The Commissioner-General of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees ( UNRWA ) confirmed on Saturday that 800,000 people were “forced to flee” from Rafah in the far south of the Gaza Strip since the start of Israeli military operations in the city this month. Philippe Lazzarinii confirmed that people are fleeing to areas that lack water supply and sanitation. The Commissioner-General of UNRWA added that the coastal town of Al-Mawasi, which has an area of 14 square kilometers, as well as the city of Deir Al-Balah in the center of the Strip, are “crowded” with displaced people.
Palestinian sources in Rafah said that Israeli forces are operating in the city's Al-Salam and El-Geneina neighborhoods and on the Philadelphia Road along the Egyptian border. A security source said, "The forces are advancing and retreating in these areas." Relief organizations confirm that the Israeli incursion into Rafah, which began despite widespread international opposition and while mediators hoped to achieve a breakthrough in the stalled truce talks, has exacerbated the severe humanitarian crisis.
Also in the north, the occupation army issued a new evacuation order yesterday evening, Saturday, for neighborhoods in northern Gaza, saying that they had witnessed rockets being fired at Israel. The army said in the evacuation order, “To those in the neighborhoods of Al-Karama, Mashrou’ Amer, Al-Atatreh and Al-Sultan... you must evacuate immediately to shelters in the west of Gaza City.”
The Palestinian resistance factions continue their qualitative operations against the Israeli army on various fronts of combat in the Gaza Strip, causing it heavy losses of life and equipment, which has made Israeli military leaders question the feasibility of continuing the war. In this context, military and strategic expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi said that there is a large discrepancy in the performance of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza between previous battles and the current battles, speaking of a “fundamental change in the management of the battle.”
In previous battles, the resistance relied on repelling from the first moment from the first line of defense, which is the lines located on the outskirts of civilian areas, and fierce battles occurred, as a result of which the Israeli occupation forces retreated without completing the mission. As for the current battles - Al-Duwairi adds in an analysis of the military scene in Gaza - there are very limited repelling and confrontation operations in the first defensive lines, where the fighting forces of the resistance withdraw and disappear underground and between buildings, allowing the occupation forces to enter, go deeper and open up, which is what is happening east of Rafah , south of Rafah. Gaza Strip and in Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
He added that most of the operations carried out by resistance faction fighters in the current battles depend on sniping with Yassin shells or thunder bombs, or luring occupation soldiers and blowing up tunnel openings. On the other hand, the military and strategic expert commented on what was stated by the former commander of the Gaza Division in the Israeli occupation army, General Gadi Shamani, that “the Israeli army is floundering in Gaza, and it is clear that Israel will not achieve its declared goals.” Al-Duwairi said that the problem with the Israeli army is that it neglects the non-material factors in its current war against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, which are represented by the will, determination and skill that characterize the resistance fighters, stressing that such factors are what led to the defeat of the American army in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam.
The Palestinian resistance announced on Sunday that it had killed and wounded Israeli soldiers in ambushes in the Jabalia camp, north of Gaza, while the Israeli army acknowledged the killing of 3 and the wounding of dozens of its members during battles in the Gaza Strip, and continued to target civilians, resulting in more martyrs. The Al-Quds Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Jihad Movement - said that they jointly carried out several operations against the Israeli occupation forces in Jabalia and its camp, with the Al- Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ). In details, the Al-Quds Brigades and the Al-Qassam Brigades explained via the Telegram application that their fighters targeted a special Israeli force that barricaded itself behind the Martyr Imad Aqel Mosque in the Jabalia Camp, and killed and wounded its members.
Al-Saraya and Al-Qassam fighters also targeted a Merkava tank, and clashed with a foot force next to the vehicle, killing and wounding its members. In another joint operation, the resistance fighters eliminated a special Israeli force on Al-Albani Street in Jabalia Camp. The two resistance factions also announced the detonation of a Merkava tank with explosive devices on Al-Ajarma Street in the camp.
The Al-Qassam Brigades announced - earlier on Sunday - that they had targeted an Israeli Merkava tank in the Jabalia camp, while the Al-Quds Brigades announced that they had bombed, in conjunction with the Al-Qassam, the operations command headquarters of the Israeli army in eastern Jabalia with mortar shells. The Al-Quds Brigades also said that its members detonated a "lightning" shock device in a Merkava 4 tank near the "Timraz" station in the Jabalia camp. They also clashed with an Israeli foot force with machine guns on "Al-Ternis" Street in the camp, confirming that members of the force were killed or wounded. In the south of the Gaza Strip, the Al-Quds Brigades said that they were engaged in fierce clashes with the occupation forces east of Rafah. As for the Al-Qassam Brigades, they said that they bombarded the occupation forces at the Rafah crossing with mortar shells. The Al-Qassam Brigades announced on Saturday that it had killed 20 Israeli soldiers in two separate operations east of Rafah.
Al Jazeera's correspondent said that a drone targeted a group of citizens on Old Gaza Street in Jabalia al-Balad, killing two and wounding others. The occupation aircraft also bombed sites on Al-Ajarma Street and the Jabalia refugee camp market, and Al-Jazeera's correspondent reported that the occupation forces opened fire on shelter centers affiliated with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees ( UNRWA ) in the Al-Faluja area of the camp. The director of Kamal Adwan Hospital, Dr. Hossam Abu Safiya, told Al Jazeera that 60 martyrs have arrived at the hospital since Saturday after the occupation bombed a densely populated residential square located next to the hospital, which is located north of Gaza.
Israeli Channel 12 revealed, citing sources in the Israeli army, the introduction of a fourth military brigade into Rafah , south of the Gaza Strip , in a development that military and strategic expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi believes comes in the context of preparations for expanding the military operation in Rafah.However, Al-Duwairi - in an analysis of the military scene in Gaza - explains that introducing a fourth brigade to fight in Rafah falls within the framework of preparations and building a force that may be used in the process of expanding the military operation or in the process of replacing exhausted forces if American and internal pressures on the Israeli government continue.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right team insist on expanding the military operation in Rafah, despite the opposition of the rest of the members of the War Council.The Israeli army is currently present in Rafah on an area ranging between 9 and 10 kilometers, and - as the military expert confirms - it is carrying out bombing operations targeting the city center and the western parts, and is trying to create a deep detour in order to reach Al-Rashid Street and separate Rafah from Deir Al-Balah.
Al-Duwairi says that the mobilization of Israeli forces in the cemetery area and the vicinity of the airport is a clear indication of the occupation’s intention to expand the military operation in Rafah. The occupation army continues its military operation against Rafah, which it began on May 6, ignoring regional and international warnings about the repercussions of this, in light of the presence of about 1.4 million displaced people in this city, which it pushed there under the claim that it was “safe.”
On Friday, the US Central Command ( CENTCOM ) announced the movement of the first humanitarian aid trucks via the floating dock into the Gaza Strip.As for the temporary naval pier, the French newspaper Le Monde says that the entry into service of the floating port in Gaza means that US President Joe Biden has fulfilled his commitment, a “commitment” that represented an admission of impotence in the face of Israel’s refusal to allow a sufficient amount of aid to enter Gaza by land. The newspaper quoted a United Nations official - whose name was not mentioned - as saying, "The entire operation is throwing dust in the eyes. It is unreasonable for the quantities through the port to compensate for what Israel prevents from entering by land."
While an article in the American magazine “The Nation” suggested that Gaza would be a disaster for President Biden during the upcoming elections. Writer Joshua Cohen downplayed the role of the economy and internal issues in Biden's decline in popularity, stressing that his biggest problem currently is his record in foreign policy. He pointed out that the aura surrounding candidate Biden in 2020 was about his supposed ability to restore America's role in the world, in a way that his predecessor, Donald Trump, was unable to do.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Popular Resistance Committees warned on Sunday of the dangers of the floating port on the Gaza coast , which the United States announced was operating under allegations of transporting humanitarian aid to the Strip, and considered any foreign presence in the region an occupying force. The Popular Front said - in a statement - that "the US administration's establishment of a floating port on the coast of the Gaza Strip is a cause for concern, and we warn of the dangers of using it to implement other goals and plans, such as displacement or protecting the (Israeli) occupation, and not to transport aid."
The Front warned “any Palestinian, Arab or international parties against coordinating with the American administration, or working in this port,” and stressed the necessity of opening all crossings in the Gaza Strip, including the Rafah land crossing, as an alternative to this port and to ensure the flow of aid to the Gaza Strip without restrictions or conditions. It stressed that the Rafah land crossing is a Palestinian-Egyptian crossing with pure sovereignty, and its management mechanism is determined by the Palestinian party in agreement with the Egyptian party, far from the control or interference of the occupation.
The Popular Front renewed its position rejecting any “American or Zionist presence or any foreign force in the Gaza Strip, whether at the Rafah crossing or any place on the land or coast of the Strip,” and affirms that it and the resistance will continue to deal with these forces as an occupying force.
In turn, the Popular Resistance Committees in Palestine said in a statement: “We view with great danger the direction of the American floating dock located on the shore of the Gaza Sea and we warn against it, as the American administration is a major partner and supporter of the Zionist aggression and war of annihilation against our people in the Gaza Strip.” It considered, "The port is a service to the Zionist enemy, an act of propaganda and deception, and actual participation in legislating the blockade and occupation of the Rafah crossing, and a stupefaction and deception of world public opinion that supports our people and rejects the crimes of the Nazi enemy in Gaza."
It also described it as "an attempt to divert attention from the siege, genocide, and starvation war that the Zionist entity has been carrying out against our people for about 8 months." Referring to the American administration, the resistance committees said, “Whoever wants to provide relief to our people must first stop the war, killing, and massacres against them, and stop supporting their enemy (Israel) with weapons and money.” It expressed its rejection of "any Zionist or foreign presence on the shore of the Gaza Sea or its crossings, and any American, Zionist, or other force present on any inch of our land will be a legitimate target for our resistance."
The Palestinian National Liberation Movement ( Fatah ) said, “Operating the floating port in Gaza dedicates the occupation and isolates Gaza, and one of the most effective options for providing relief to the Strip is to stop the aggression.” In turn, the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) yesterday stressed the necessity of the floating water dock that Washington established off the shores of Gaza not being an alternative to opening all land crossings.
On Friday, World Food Program trucks transported the cargo of the first humanitarian aid ship to arrive at the floating dock off Gaza, an American ship that came from the port of Larnaca in Cyprus. Last March, NBC quoted American officials as saying that Israel was considering contracting with private international security companies to secure the delivery of aid in Gaza via the floating dock.
Operational Update - Judea-Samaria
The Israeli occupation forces stormed - at dawn on Sunday - several cities and towns of the occupied West Bank , amidst the firing of live bullets and gas bombs, which led to clashes with Palestinians and some injuries. The occupation forces stormed the city of Qalqilya in the northern West Bank and deployed their military vehicles in several neighborhoods. They surrounded a house in the Al-Safiri neighborhood and chased a young man who crossed and demanded that he surrender himself via loudspeakers.
The Israeli occupation forces also stormed the village of Deir Abu Mishal, west of Ramallah, amid gunfire and sound bombs, and clashes erupted between those forces and the youth of the village. Local Palestinian sources reported that this was the third raid into the village within 24 hours, and the occupation forces later withdrew without recording any injuries or arrests in the village. Palestinian youths targeted what is known as the “Sixty” line adjacent to the town of Husan, west of Bethlehem, in the south of the West Bank, with Molotov cocktails. The occupation forces responded by firing sound and gas bombs in the Al-Shurfa area of the village after they stormed it and conducted their patrols there.
The occupation forces raided the city of Nablus and stormed a number of neighborhoods, shops, and homes. The raids were concentrated on Rafidya Street, the Al-Maajin area, and other neighborhoods. Local sources reported that a number of Israeli vehicles raided the city of Nablus amid a flight of reconnaissance planes, where soldiers stormed several homes, shops, and money exchange shops, searched them, and seized some of their contents.
The sources reported that confrontations took place between groups of young men and the occupation forces, during which live and metal bullets, tear gas bombs, and stun grenades were fired, but no injuries were reported.
In Hebron , Palestinian sources reported two cases of tear gas suffocation as a result of the occupation forces storming the city of Dura, south of the city. Dozens of citizens also suffocated, on Saturday evening, during confrontations with the Israeli occupation forces, in the town of Idhna and the village of Tabqa in the town of Dura, in Hebron Governorate.
In a related context, the occupation forces detained a Palestinian family and their children as they returned to their home in Jaber neighborhood near the “Kiryat Arba” colony, which was built on citizens’ lands and property east of the city of Hebron, and abused them, before releasing a number of them, while continuing to detain a young man and his sister. In Qalqilya in the northern West Bank, security sources reported that large forces of the occupation army, reinforced with military vehicles, stormed the city and besieged two houses in the “Al-Qaraan neighborhood” and near the “Interior Ministry” in the city, and demanded through loudspeakers their residents to leave, amid the outbreak of confrontations.
The sources added that separate confrontations broke out between groups of young men and the occupation forces, who fired live, rubber-coated bullets, stun grenades, and tear gas. The Palestinian News Agency (Wafa) reported that confrontations broke out in the town of Idna and the village of Tabqa after the occupation forces stormed them. The occupation soldiers fired live bullets, stun grenades and toxic tear gas towards citizens, causing dozens of citizens to suffer from suffocation due to inhaling toxic gas. They were treated in the field.
A fire also caught fire in citizens' lands in the village of Tabqa, south of Dura, as a result of the occupation forces firing stun grenades and poisonous gas into the village. The occupation escalates arrest campaigns and incursions, in addition to settler attacks on Palestinians and their property in the West Bank, in parallel with the ongoing Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip , which has left tens of thousands martyred and wounded.
Israeli threats were renewed to invade southern Lebanon, “if Hezbollah does not respond to the final ultimatum,” following the revelation of Israeli letters to the United States and Lebanon in which it expressed that its “patience is running out,” according to what Israeli media reported, amid continuous exchanges. To open fire on both sides of the border in southern Lebanon.
On Sunday, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz quoted Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as saying, “The army will have to control southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not respond to the final ultimatum.” The Israeli minister said, in a press conference in northern Israel: “In order for the residents of the north to return to a different security reality and enjoy a peaceful sleep at night, this war must end with a decisive military defeat for (Hezbollah).”
He added that it was necessary to “create a security zone in which the Israeli army would remain in southern Lebanon,” and issue a final warning to Hezbollah regarding the residents of the north, while Channel 12 quoted him as saying: “We are on our way to war with Hezbollah. It is an order of no escape".
On the other hand, Maariv newspaper quoted military sources as saying that “the Israeli army is ready to launch attacks against (Hezbollah).” The sources told the newspaper, “During the war in Gaza, we always maintained a reserve of ammunition and forces with which we could maneuver in Lebanon. Fighting in Lebanon requires the Israeli army to use a lot of fire and a rapid invasion into Lebanon.
On the other hand, Hezbollah believes that the battles it is waging in the south seek to deter Israel from launching a battle against Lebanon. A member of the Hezbollah parliamentary bloc (Loyalty to the Resistance), MP Hassan Ezz El-Din, said: “We have two missions on our southern front; The first is to support Gaza and the resistance in Palestine, and the second is to deter the enemy from a broad and comprehensive aggression against our country, our sovereignty, our independence, and our wealth. This is what the Islamic resistance in Lebanon is achieving with all the other resistance factions with it, and therefore we will not retreat from this mission and national duty until there is a ceasefire in Gaza and victory is achieved. ».
For his part, the head of the party’s parliamentary bloc, MP Muhammad Raad, said, “The resistance is escalating its operations against the Israeli enemy by an amount, in order to preserve the deterrence equation, so that the enemy does not delude, even for a moment, that he has become capable and prepared to attack Lebanon and realize its illusions.” “Therefore, we will emerge victorious when we thwart the enemy’s goals.”
This comes in light of an ongoing escalation that has been going on for a week. After the party announced 14 military operations on Saturday, which it carried out against Israeli targets, on Sunday, it announced 5 operations until the afternoon, including a “specific operation.” The party said, in successive statements, that “after careful monitoring and anticipation of the Israeli enemy forces at the Al-Malikiyah site, and when a Hummer military jeep entered it, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted it with a guided missile that directly hit it, and it was destroyed, leaving its crew dead and wounded.” After the enemy soldiers gathered to inspect the casualties, the Mujahideen targeted them with artillery shells and achieved confirmed casualties. He also talked about targeting the sites of Al-Raheb, Ramtha, Ramia, and Jal Al-Alam.
On the other hand, Israeli warplanes launched a raid on the town of Maroun al-Ras in the Bint Jbeil district. The official Lebanese National Agency reported that the Israeli army fired phosphorus shells at the town of Mays al-Jabal, near Mays al-Jabal Governmental Hospital, causing a fire to break out in the place, which spread and expanded quickly due to the wind. Israeli aircraft also launched a raid on the outskirts of the town of Beit Lev. At the same time, Israeli artillery bombed the surroundings of the towns of Alma al-Shaab and Naqoura with successive shells, and shells were reported to have been fired on the outskirts of the town of Hula, causing a fire to break out in the place.
Operational Update - Syria / Iraq
Maps
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All maps are lies. “Not only is it easy to lie with maps, it is essential,” wrote cartographer Mark Monmoneir in his book How to Lie with Maps. He showed that condensing complex, three-dimensional spaces onto a two-dimensional sheet of paper [in old days] is bound to be reductive. But it is impossible to comprehend the war in Gaza without reference to maps, otherwise the entire conflict is reduced to an endless series of meaningless acts of random violence and the suffering of civilians. The first characteristic of guerrilla warfare is the loss of a front line. Evidently, different mappers have different ideas of how to depict the war in Gaza, notably those that seek to depict Israeli progress in the ground campaign. Part of the problem is latency. The news that forms the basis of the maps takes time to filter out to mappers, and the cartographers take time in crafting their maps, and it takes time to curate them. These processes are uneven among mappers, so their maps may differ in detail. Probably there is some ideological bias, or at least thematic apperception, which is understandable in wartime. It may come as no surprise that al-Jazeera maps depict rather less Israeli territorial progress than other sources. Finally, there remains the epistemological question of just exactly what are the colored in areas depicting. Naively, this might be understood as areas of Israeli control, that are no longer contested by the HAMAS. Or possibly these are areas of Israeli presence, in many of which the possibility of an RPG-wielding HAMAS militant popping out of a tunnel unexpectedly remains a live possibility. With the "zero-range" combat characterized by small unit tactics on both sides, maps may be prey to a fallacy of misplaced concreteness.
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Bystanders
The United Nations warned on Sunday of the risk of famine in the Gaza Strip , at a time when Israel continues to close the crossings and prevents 3,000 aid trucks from entering the Strip. UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths said that famine in northern Gaza is imminent. He stressed that the residents of Gaza are facing an unsustainable crisis in light of the closure of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings and the failure to provide aid to the northern Gaza Strip.
The government media office in the Gaza Strip said that the occupation prevents the entry of 3,000 aid trucks and prevents 690 sick and wounded people from traveling for treatment. He added that the occupation is closing the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings for the 13th day, doubling the humanitarian crisis.
In the same context, Al Jazeera's correspondent reported that extremist Israelis attacked trucks transporting aid to the Gaza Strip after leaving the Tarqumiya crossing in the West Bank. The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip has appealed to all humanitarian institutions to bring medicines into the Strip as the Israeli aggression and occupation of the crossings continues. The Ministry warned in a statement that the acute shortage of necessary medicines and medical consumables threatens the lives of patients and impedes the provision of emergency services, surgeries, primary care, and many services.
In statements to Al Jazeera, the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital said, “We suffer from a severe shortage of medical supplies and we appeal to the world to pay attention to us.” He added, "Since yesterday, about 60 martyrs, most of them women and children, have arrived to us as a result of the bombing of a crowded residential square in Jabalia."
As for UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, he said that half of Gaza's population is on the roads and forced to flee. He pointed out that people in Gaza have no other options but to return to their destroyed homes, saying that aid is arriving in a meager manner. Lazzarini added, "It is time to start investigating and holding those committing attacks in Gaza accountable."
Axis of Resistance
Allied for Democracy
Haaretz newspaper published an article in which the author extrapolates history to find out the reasons for the disintegration and collapse of states. Inspired by lessons and lessons to determine whether the successive events in Israel, the repercussions of the war in Gaza, portend the collapse of the state, and if Israel collapses, is it capable of rising from its ruins? Israeli historian Ofri Ilani wrote in the article that millions of people today were born in countries that no longer exist, such as those that emerged from the communist bloc, such as Yugoslavia , East Germany, South Yemen, and of course the Soviet Union .
He attributed the demise of some of those countries and political entities to historical developments they witnessed. Among them, he mentioned the state of Prussia, and the United Arab Republic , which effectively disintegrated in 1961 when Syria separated from it, and was officially dissolved in 1971. According to the historian, many do not believe that the State of Israel, which has been established for 76 years, is about to join the list of those former states that no longer exist.
However, he goes back to saying that talk about Israel living in its final years has become circulated in the media, and is being expressed in protests against the Israeli government and in the statements of intellectuals at home and around the world. It is also often expressed in the form of a warning, such as in an article by writer Merav Arlosoroff in The Marker newspaper (in Hebrew) this week, that “the way the State of Israel is currently proceeding will not lead it to celebrate its 100th anniversary of independence.” Ilani divides those who talk about Israel's demise into two groups: those who hope it will happen, and those who fear it will happen.
The first group, he said, are Israel's enemies in the Arab world and elsewhere, and some anti-Israel protesters in the United States and Europe. They "see that Israel is a colonial entity that should be dismantled, and the sooner the better." When some are asked what they expect to happen to the Jewish citizens of Israel after the demise of their state, they say that they must “return to Europe,” while others talk about imposing democracy on “the lands currently occupied by the Zionist regime,” as happened in the Soviet Union, or in South Africa “which "It was not resolved, but its regime changed."
The Israeli historian described these statements as outrageous, because they contain, as he says, a great deal of arrogance and self-esteem. In his opinion, the Israelis are so traumatized that they do not believe that the dismantling of their state can be done smoothly. It is not surprising, then, that most Israelis view the prospect of their state's demise as a terrifying nightmare; The experiences of Jewish history conjure scenarios of a second Holocaust, or at least scenarios of destruction, as the Haaretz article put it.
The writer goes on to say that there is no reason to believe that more than 10 million people will pack their bags and settle in Europe or the United States. He adds that by extrapolating Israel's history over long time frames, we are likely to conclude that the State of Israel may collapse, but it will rise again and again.
The writer concluded his article with an optimistic tone, saying: The war currently taking place in the Gaza Strip will seem like a minor chapter of history that is barely mentioned, “like a quarrel between lovers that may seem exciting at the right time,” and it will be buried under the rubble of battles and reconciliations, so that no one will remember the reasons for its occurrence.
War Council member Minister Benny Gantz’s speech carried within it his political and security views, as he called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to develop a strategic plan for the conduct of the war and the next day by the eighth of next June, to achieve the goals of: the return of detainees and undermining the rule of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) politically and militarily by demilitarizing the Gaza Strip and identifying an alternative to ruling the Strip.
In the strategic plan, Gantz also stipulated that the residents of the north and the Israeli border towns with Lebanon be returned to their homes until the start of school on the first of next September, the promotion of normalization, and the adoption of a blueprint for the conscription and civil service project. According to estimates by political analysts, Gantz's statements and demands can be lived with by Netanyahu if he is concerned with the continuation of the emergency government, and they agree that the proposed strategic plan does not pose a threat to the collapse of Netanyahu's original government coalition, which relies on 64 members of the Knesset out of 120.
Analyzes suggest that the divergence of positions between the Israeli political parties and forces - regarding the priorities of the war and the course of the fighting - will not undermine the coalition. While there is consensus - on the other hand - that the Haredi conscription law and the failure of the Netanyahu government to reach understandings that guarantee the exemption of Jewish religious school students from conscription into the army, the aforementioned will lead to the dismantling of the government and going to early elections.
Gantz's statements reflect his inability to overthrow the Netanyahu government, and they also reflect an Israeli consensus to rule out any political solution to the issue of Palestine and Gaza exclusively, as Gantz did not put forward any serious initiative towards settling the conflict with the Palestinians within a clear political project, according to political analysts. In reading the meanings and connotations of the content of Gantz’s statements, the political affairs analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Moran Azoulay, estimated that they aim to bring about changes in Netanyahu’s policy regarding everything related to the conduct of the war. Azoulay pointed out that - in contrast to previous statements - Gantz seemed strict and more assertive, mainly due to a strong conviction that Netanyahu’s political considerations behind the continuation of the war violated the “sanctities” of Israel.
He explained that the truth of the content of Gantz’s statements that he will resign from the emergency government very soon - if the government’s policy regarding the conduct of the war, the next day, and the management of Gaza in the future does not change - is surprising in itself. But "there is still a real threat looming over the stability of Netanyahu's government, which is the conscription law." With the exception of Article 6, which deals with the conscription law, Azoulay says, “There is nothing in the statements and conditions set by Gantz that Netanyahu cannot live with. The prime minister will have no problem declaring, at least to the press, that he is interested in achieving the six goals, and this may be welcomed.” Among the majority of coalition members.
The political affairs analyst believes that formulating a plan that meets Gantz's demands - in one way or another - is not very complicated. “It is certain that there will be obstacles in the way, but it can be estimated that if Gantz’s presence in the government is still important to Netanyahu, he will know how to find a way to meet the demands, but the conscription law remains the only obstacle,” Azoulay added.
The correspondent for party and parliamentary affairs at the Israeli Channel 11, Yaara Shapira, offers the same reading, but she believes that Gantz’s statements show his intentions for the near future, which will affect the entire Israeli political system, and she stressed that “Netanyahu does not have the ability to agree fully and within 3 weeks.” "On the conditions presented by Gantz for his stay in the government." According to Shapira, Gantz’s threat to resign from the government comes “just before the summer session of the Knesset, which will begin next week and end at the end of next July, which is very short, and after that the Knesset will go into recess again during which it is not possible to easily vote on dissolving the Knesset or forming a new government.”
The party affairs correspondent added that Gantz's resignation will not lead to the dissolution of the government and the holding of elections, as Netanyahu still has 64 deputies. Therefore, when Gantz stated that if his conditions were not accepted, he would seek to form a government on the basis of broad unity, he meant that he would try to achieve this in the current Knesset, and that is why Gantz needs time for political maneuvers during the summer session. In this regard, Shapira believes that Gantz’s threats to resign from the government are an attempt by him to open new negotiations with Netanyahu to achieve political gains related to the war, most notably the return of “detainees.” It is also a message to Israeli public opinion that he was forced to resign from the emergency government after he had exhausted all possibilities, and thus He needs an excuse to justify his withdrawal from the war government so that his popularity does not decline.
For his part, the political affairs correspondent for Haaretz newspaper, Yehonatan Liss, believes that the content of Gantz’s statements amounts to him coming down from the tree, and aims to give him an excuse for a gradual withdrawal from the emergency government, pointing out that the estimates of the political officials on the party map agree among themselves that the chances of Netanyahu agreeing to the conditions that Gantz set it low. Despite this, the political affairs correspondent believes that Gantz hopes that his conditions, along with Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s statements rejecting the formation of military rule in the Gaza Strip, will be a pressure card on Netanyahu to formulate a political plan regarding the day after the war, and refrain from resigning from the emergency government.
According to the political affairs correspondent, Gantz prefers the scenario of not withdrawing from the emergency government, because he currently does not have the ability to lead a step that leads to dissolving the Knesset and holding early parliamentary elections. Regarding Gantz’s deadline, the political affairs correspondent says, “The deadline comes as he is working in coordination with Galant to promote the scheme for the Haredi recruitment bill, as leaving the government early would harm the possibility of moving forward with this step.”
In his latest work, “The Isolation of Israel,” as well as in his media interventions that followed the publication of his book, the French philosopher and writer Bernard-Henri Lévy objects to describing Israel as a “colonial reality,” as presented by the French orientalist and historian Maxime Rodinson in June 1967 in a text bearing that significant title, Without anyone objecting to the strange and misleading arguments that Levy mobilizes for this purpose. With this introduction, the “Orian 21” website opened an article by the writer specializing in the Middle East, Alan Gresh, in which he discussed a book by the philosopher Levy in which he defends Israel, by referring to another book by the orientalist Rodinson.
Gresh begins to wonder: Is Levy's latest work worth these few lines and the time wasted in reading it? Especially since his author has many unobjectionable interviews, which helps him in his routine defense of Israel, the war crimes it commits, and its “very moral” army. He also expressed his regret for the isolation that Israel suffers from, before adding that this country enjoys strong support from the United States and most Western countries, and its conscience is not affected by the approximately 35,000 dead, most of whom were civilians killed in besieged Gaza .
The writer adds, "Therefore, we could have despised this booklet, which is a miserable collection of elements of the prevailing political and media discourse. However, this work deserves to stop at one point in it, which is that it brings to the surface a forgotten text by the orientalist Rodinson, whose title is: Is Israel a colonial reality?" ? Levy quotes from the book as saying, “The formation of the State of Israel on Palestinian land is the culmination of a process that fits perfectly with the major European-American expansion movement in the 19th and 20th centuries, or control over other lands,” pointing out that the Zionists at that time were essentially communists.
But the author discusses this idea, showing that the Zionist leaders - according to Israeli historian Zeev Sternhell - were able to manipulate “old communist sentiments” to create highly militarized kibbutzim (agricultural colonies) with “one hand on the plow and the other on the sword,” and whose real goal was attachment to the Palestinian lands. As a step towards its occupation. He pointed out that European supremacy implanted in the consciousness of people, even the most deprived among those who participated in the migration to Palestine, the idea that any region outside Europe is likely to be occupied by a European element, which means - according to Gresh - that it is a matter of finding an empty region, Not necessarily because of the real absence of the population, but because of a kind of cultural vacuum.
To oppose the colonial character of the Zionist project, Levy repeats many of the theses already responded to in Rodinson's long text, without bothering to re-read it, even if only to challenge it. Gresh pointed out that Levy argues that Jews have always existed “in the land that is known today as the State of Israel” for thousands of years, before and after the destruction of the “Temple” in 70 AD, but they did not form a nation.
In the same vein, Levy says, “The original Arabs were not a nation,” and they did not gain this status until the 1940s, that is, simultaneously with the Jews - as he claims - which made it possible to promote a hoax in which Levy places the aspirations of the Palestinians and the aspirations of these Jews in Palestine at face value. par. As for the legitimacy of the Jewish claim to Palestine, Gresh mentions that Theodor Herzl (the founder of political Zionism) had envisioned the settlement of Jews in Argentina or the Congo, but Levy cites the Bible to justify his claim, so Gresh asks, with the exception of a few enlightened people: Who can consider the covenant Old title deed?
Invoking the historical rights of Jews in Palestine, Rodinson quips, “I will not insult my readers into thinking they have been fooled by this argument,” otherwise we would open the doors to the “historical” claims of Russia in Ukraine, Serbia in Kosovo, and even France in the French-speaking part of Belgium, demonstrating the absurdity of Claim based on myths developed by nationalist movements.
Then Levy says, “There is one point on which everyone agrees, which is that colonialism is theft,” stressing that there is neither theft nor fraud in the issue of (Israel), because the lands obtained by the immigrants, as the original Jewish population obtained, were not taken away, but rather were purchased with some exceptions. , denying that the lands that make up Israel were seized by force or in defiance of the law. Here again - as Gresh says - Levy did not read what Rodinson wrote in which he explained how in Africa, as in Tunisia, the acquisition of land by settlers was often carried out legally, explaining that 72% of the lands that became in the hands of Israeli Jews on the eve of the war 1967, it was Palestinian-owned before 1947.
Levy insists: “Whoever says colonialism says a colonial metropolis, and in this case Great Britain was opposed with all its might to the disintegration of its empire, so the birth of Israel came to represent a historical moment, not for a (new) empire, but rather for the moment of its dissolution, and Zionism (in reality) is not imperialism, but rather the moment of its dissolution. "Anti-imperialist."
But this abbreviation, which will find its place in the Israeli sacred texts - according to Gresh - obscures the central role that London has played since 1922, as the British not only encouraged mass Jewish immigration, but also helped the Jewish community in Palestine to establish itself as a separate body, with its own political institutions and economic life. Britain soon armed the Jewish militias. The writer points out that the United Kingdom did not do this out of its “love for the Jews,” as many of the defenders of the Zionist project, led by Lord Balfour , were anti -Semitic , but because London saw in these European settlers an “advanced center of civilization” and a point of support for defending its interests in the region.
The writer concluded that he does not advise Levy to re-read “Thoughts” of Rodinson, whose dense text, despite its age, destroys what Levy believes, indicating that readers will find material for contemplation at a time when the colonial character of the Zionist project with all its horrors in Gaza appears.
International newspapers and news sites focused on the developments of the Israeli military operation in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip , and the deadline granted by Israeli War Council member Benny Gantz to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , as well as the start of work on the temporary American naval pier off the coast of Gaza.
In an article in the American newspaper The New York Times, writer Nicholas Kristof says, “Settlement of Rafah to the ground may be in Netanyahu’s interest, because the continuation of the war keeps him in his position, but it does not serve Israel.” The writer stressed that eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) is not possible, recalling that Netanyahu, after destroying the cities of Gaza and Khan Yunis under the pretext of the presence of Hamas leaders there, will promote this time that the movement’s leaders are in Rafah, before adding, “And even if that were true, Thousands more civilians will be killed in the search for them.”
In turn, the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" quoted sources in the Israeli National Unity Party, which Gantz heads, as saying that "Gantz is looking for an excuse to leave the government behind the deadline he granted to Netanyahu." Other political sources estimate - according to the newspaper - that Gantz hopes that his threat, along with Defense Minister Yoav Galant’s statement , will put pressure on Netanyahu to discuss the day after the Gaza war, anticipating that the chances of Netanyahu responding to Gantz’s deadline are slim.
In a related context, the Israeli "Jerusalem Post" saw that the other topic that Gantz is seeking to pressure Netanyahu is Lebanese Hezbollah. The newspaper explained that dealing with Hezbollah is fraught with risks, noting that the September 1 deadline for residents to return to their homes and schools to work in northern Israel is a risk open to all possibilities. She pointed out that Netanyahu hates making fateful decisions, and “Gantz’s threat may force him to take action,” she said.
The former commander of the Gaza Division in the Israeli occupation army , General Gadi Shamani, said, “The Israeli army is floundering in Gaza , and it is clear that Israel will not achieve its declared goals.” The Israeli newspaper Maariv quoted Shamani as saying that it is difficult to see how all the “detainees” will be returned from the Gaza Strip. Shamani believed that the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) will suffer many losses due to the war, but will not be eliminated militarily.
According to Shamani, Benjamin Netanyahu's government condemned Israel to years of confusion, isolation, and severe damage to the economy. He also said, “The most dangerous thing is the dramatic erosion of the status of Israel, which was a regional power until the Hamas attack on the Gaza Strip on October 7th.
A few days ago, Reserve Major General of the occupation army, Yitzhak Brik, said that the Israeli army does not have the ability to overthrow the Hamas movement, even if the war lasts for a long time. Brik questioned the feasibility of continuing the fighting in the Gaza Strip, saying that if Israel continues the war, it will suffer huge losses represented by the collapse of the Israeli reserve army within a short period, as well as the collapse of the economy, as well as the deterioration of its international relations and the tearing apart of its society from within.
He also said that not making a decision on “the day after the war” would lead to more deaths among the Israeli army, especially after it returned to fighting in the same areas it was in before. Brik pointed out that entering Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip would be the final nail in the coffin of the ability to topple the Hamas movement. Regarding the northern front, he said that the Israeli army is unable to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River and allow about 100,000 displaced Israelis to return to their homes in the north due to continuing tension.
It is noteworthy that the Israeli Prime Minister has repeatedly pledged to achieve a “complete victory” over Hamas in Gaza, where the occupation army continues for the eighth month in a row a devastating war that has left tens of thousands of martyrs and wounded, most of them women and children, famine and an unprecedented humanitarian and health crisis, according to UN and international reports.
Operation Iron Swords - By the Numbers
Regarding the occupation army’s announcement of losses among its soldiers, Al Jazeera military and strategic expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi indicated that it does not provide an accurate toll of the losses suffered by its forces, especially with regard to mercenaries and dual nationals who reside outside Israel, as well as Arabs, Bedouins, Druze, and those who accept compensation. On the other hand, Al-Duwairi describes the ongoing war in Gaza as an unequal war, and that the Palestinian resistance is carrying out specific operations and using ambushes, anti-armor missiles, explosive charges, and mortars. He said that in light of this performance by the resistance, he will be forced to redeploy and he will say that he has accomplished the mission.
- 1,900,000 IDPs in Gaza
- 79,476 Gazans injured, 28% adult male
- 70,000 tons of explosives dropped on Gaza
- 70,000 Gaza housing units completely destroyed
- 70,000 Israeli IDPs from Lebanon border
- 45,000 bombs dropped in Gaza
- 45,000 Gazans killed, including buried under rubble
- 35,456 Gazans martyred
- 33,000 Gaza targets attacked
- 20,528 Palestinians in Israeli prisons [Haaretz, 20 Mar 2024]
- 15,140 Israelis injured [i24 TV]
- 15,000 terror operatives killed in Gaza [Israeli officials]
- 15,000 rockets launched from Gaza
- 14,520 Gazan children martyred
- 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [N12]
- 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [IDF]
- 11,000 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank in 2023
- 10,000 Gazans missing under the rubble
- 9,920 Gazan women martyred
- 9,400 Palestinians in Israeli prisons
- 9,000 IDF needing psychological assistance
- 8,665 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank since Oct.7th
- 7,209 IDF injured admitted to rehabilitation [IDF]
- 6,800 IDF officers and soldiers injured [Channel 12]
- 6,000 HAMAS combatants killed [HAMAS]
- 5,500 IDF wounded [reports]
- 4,800 West Bank Palestinians wounded
- 4,700 sites targetted in Lebanon
- 3,850 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria
- 3,600 administrative detainees
- 3,188 IDF wounded [IDF]
- 2,100 Gazan women are missing
- 1,609 terrorists killed on the first day
- 1,650 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria affiliated with Hamas
- 1,160 Israelis killed on the first day
- 620 Israeli officers and soldiers killed since the start of the war
- 468 West Bank Palestinians martyred
- 364 people [including fighters] killed in Lebanon
- 274 Israeli officers and soldiers killed in Gaza
- 240 Hezbollah fighters killed in Lebanon
- 126 people recovered, including 91 Israelis, 11 bodies, and 24 foreign workers
- 116 living hostages in Palestinian custody
- 70 civilians killed in Lebanon
- 29 IDF deaths were caused by "friendly fire"
- 15 Israelis killed in the West Bank and Israel
Not every number is reported every day, so sudden jumps generally reflect reporting artifacts rather than actual upticks. Many of these numbers fluctate, up and down, with no apparent explanation. This list records the highest number reliably reported for each matter, under the theory that reality with catch up with reports, as is relentlessly the case.
Some reports claimed that the UN cut in half its earlier estimates of women and children killed in Gaza. Initially, they reported 9,500 women and 14,500 children killed, but later revised it to 4,959 women and 7,797 children on 08 May 2024. The UN acknowledged its inability to independently verify casualty figures. The seeming discrepancy is that HAMAS had about 10K KIA bodies on hand for which they do not have positive ID. It is possible to report the gender and approximate age [ie, juvenile] without knowing the name of the deceased.
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