Operation Iron Swords - Day 119 - 02 February 2024
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NEW - War Termination NEW - Operations NEW - Operations Maps NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - Oasis of Martyrs UPDATED - Hostages |
US Central Command stated “At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aired vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.”
At least one American B-1 heavy bomber was reported to have left RAF Lakenheath, in the UK, during the evening shortly after strikes were already hitting Syria targets. For its part, the Washington Post quoted American officials as saying that the strikes in Syria and Iraq targeted at least 8 sites. Fox News quoted a defense official that the American strikes were from multiple platforms, and that they were the beginning of a long campaign to target pro-Iranian groups in the coming days.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper quoted a senior Israeli official as saying that the chances of a new prisoner deal do not exceed 50%.
Former head of the Israeli Internal Security Service ( Shin Bet ), Carmi Gilon, said that the war in Gaza has ended, and that the shooting may stop for up to 5 or 6 years. Gilon saw - in an interview he gave to the Israeli Channel 12, excerpts of which were published on Thursday - that the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) received a “strong blow” in this war of revenge, as he described it. But he added that Hamas "will remain the ruling body in the Gaza Strip as long as there is a vacuum and there is no one to fill it yet."
Gilon expected that the firing would stop for a period of up to 6 years, after which rocket firing from Gaza might resume, but he said that “the story of what happened on October 7 will not be repeated in my opinion,” referring to the sudden Palestinian resistance attack on Israeli military sites and settlements within the Gaza Strip. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood .
He added, "In my opinion, the war is over, and the only reason for the Israeli army to remain in the field is to return the hostages (the Israeli prisoners in Gaza)," indicating that military pressure is the only thing that can return them. Regarding the Israeli failure on October 7, Gilon - who headed the Shin Bet between 1994 and 1996 - said, “No one could have imagined this happening. I do not have an explanation related to intelligence, and I believe that as the fighting continues and more facts are revealed about... Hamas' preparations show that the intelligence failure is enormous."
With the continuing fighting in the Gaza Strip, the ambiguity adopted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the exchange deal, and the secrecy of the details of the Israeli plan for the day after the war, Israeli analysts unanimously estimated that “Hamas will remain in the Strip,” and Tel Aviv and the international community must deal with this fact.
While positions varied regarding the features of this survival and the gradual restoration of Hamas’s control over the Gaza Strip, these estimates agreed that the Israeli emergency government failed to achieve the goals of the war by overthrowing the movement’s civil and political rule, undermining its military arsenal, and returning Israeli detainees, as the Israeli army failed to free even a single hostage from... During ground military operations.
In reading the reality of the day after the war, many analyzes suggested that Hamas would use the exchange deal to end the war, and therefore, after the ceasefire, even if the Palestinian Authority was returned to the Gaza Strip, Hamas must be involved in civilian rule in the Strip. Analysts’ readings agree that no party, whether the Palestinian Authority or the Israeli military administration, can rule and control the Gaza Strip without Hamas, or fill the administrative and civil vacuum. Therefore, Israel is obligated to recognize this, and if the Palestinian Authority wants a foothold in Gaza, it must involve Hamas government.
In an article entitled “The administration of Gaza requires the integration and involvement of residents who worked for Hamas,” Zvi Barel, an analyst for Arab and Middle Eastern affairs in the newspaper “Haaretz,” hints that the Hamas movement will remain the day after the war, and that any authority cannot fill the void, and must That this movement participate in the civil affairs of Gazans.
Barel explained that if Israel does not want to manage the Gaza Strip itself, it will be forced to allow the Palestinian Authority to enter the Gaza Strip and receive tens of thousands of public sector employees, the majority of whom are from Hamas. He said, "The ceasefire represents an opportunity to hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, even before it implements the necessary reforms."
Barel says, "Certainly, such an idea today seems naive and unrealistic in the eyes of the Israelis, but even the Israeli concept, and the government's promise to annihilate every trace of Hamas, persecute its people and take revenge on them until the end, is not realistic, and cannot have a place in rational politics."
The analyst pointed out that proposing broad outlines for the management of Gaza the day after the war is based on the practical assumption that “even if Hamas’s military infrastructure is undermined, there will still be thousands of activists committed to the movement politically and militarily.”
It is believed that Hamas fighters will have the ability to wage large-scale battles against the Israeli army, and they will remain in all areas of the Strip, and hundreds of kilometers of tunnels can still be used by them. In his analysis, Bar'el suggested that "Hamas will remain able to launch military operations and low-intensity war, with large quantities of weapons, ammunition, missiles, and equipment that remain in its possession, and which it will produce more of on the day following the war."
Shani Cohen, a researcher at the Israeli Institute for Renewed Democracy "Mold", believes that Netanyahu's approach of escaping forward, and the Israeli government's failure to accept any negotiations the day after the war, or any settlement to end the conflict, and the repeating that there is no Palestinian partner, pave the way again for Hamas to return to power in Gaza.
Cohen said, “The Israeli claim promoted by Netanyahu, through which he claims that there is no difference between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, paves the way for a return to the policy of strengthening Hamas and its position Palestinian and regionally, because of what the movement achieved with the sudden attack on the areas surrounding Gaza, and the achievements it achieved vis-à-vis the army.”
She added, "Instead of learning the lesson and drawing lessons, Netanyahu returns to the same old strategy, and talks about destroying Hamas with one hand, a goal that was not achieved by the war, but he works to weaken its political alternative represented by the Palestinian Authority, even in the West Bank, and thus strengthen Hamas, because of what it achieved." Of achievements.”
The former Israeli National Security Advisor, Meir Ben-Shabbat, seemed more clear in his analysis, as he wrote in his article in the newspaper “Israel Hayom” that “Hamas is using the exchange deal not only to end the war, but also to ensure the continuation of its rule in the Gaza Strip, and to benefit from its achievements, to be a lever in "Recovering the points lost in the past among the Palestinian public in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank."
From the former advisor's point of view, the main price that Israel must pay for the first phase of the deal is the risk of ending the war without overthrowing Hamas' rule, with the release of Palestinian prisoners who will significantly enhance its capabilities, specifically in the areas of the West Bank.
Ben Shabbat says, “The statements of the Israeli political level about its commitment to achieving all the goals of the war are important, but they are not sufficient, and since Hamas assumes that the internal situation in Israel will affect the motivation to resume fighting, it is necessary to reach in advance a broad Israeli agreement to return and fight at the end of the cessation.” shooting".
Ben Shabbat claimed that “Hamas will try to establish a ceasefire to prevent the renewal of the war, in a semi-official arrangement with Qatar and Egypt, by releasing the remaining kidnapped Israelis, in exchange for the release of more prisoners, and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip to the October 6 lines.” A commitment to avoid a ground invasion, and international guarantees to begin the Gaza reconstruction program.”
He believes that Hamas needs these elements to frame the final scene and image of the war, in addition to the image of the surprise attack and the opening blow it directed at Israel. “With these achievements that it imposed on Israel, Hamas will restore its glory globally, and destroy Israel’s image as invincible.”
Although the United States talks about making progress that may lead to an exchange agreement between the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and Israel and a ceasefire in Gaza, and despite the existing optimism, the road to achieving this is still long, and negotiations are expected to be difficult. According to a report by Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.
The Israeli newspaper recalled at the beginning of its news analysis the announcement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that some of the demands of the Hamas movement, namely the release of thousands of prisoners and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip , cannot be met. It pointed out that Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt reached a consensus on an agreement that includes a 45-day ceasefire that coincides with the release of Israeli detainees held by Hamas.
The newspaper said that the agreement will also include the release of Palestinian prisoners, with specific details, such as the number of fighters among them who will be released for each Israeli detainee and the identity of the prisoners, which will be discussed between the two sides, and in addition, humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip will be increased.
Once Hamas announces its acceptance of the initial agreement, intensive negotiations will begin on its basic provisions. However, the newspaper says that it is clear that Hamas will not accept an agreement similar to the previous one, which stipulated the release of 3 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli detainee. Under the previous agreement, the Palestinian movement released a number of women and children up to the age of 19, in exchange for the release of Palestinian female prisoners and minors.
But this time, according to a Yedioth Ahronoth report, it is expected that Hamas will demand between 100 and 300 prisoners for every Israeli prisoner released. Hamas' conditions for returning Israeli bodies detained in Gaza are still unclear, and it is not known whether the movement will agree to exchange them for the bodies of Hamas members, or whether it will request the release of additional prisoners, according to the newspaper's report.
Hamas is currently detaining - according to Tel Aviv's estimates - 136 Israelis, the deaths of 29 of whom have been confirmed, and 4 individuals who were already detained in Gaza before the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle on October 7, 2023. If Hamas's demands are met, this will likely lead to the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, the report claims.
The newspaper pointed out that the Israeli Prime Minister set limits to the possible prisoner exchange deal when he said that “thousands of terrorists will not be released,” in reference to imprisoned Hamas members in Israel. However, it quoted news reports about the possibility of Israel releasing between 4,000 and 5,000 Palestinian fighters as part of the expected deal. The newspaper considered this the largest number of prisoners Israel has ever released.
However, sources close to Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir , quoted by Yedioth Ahronoth, believe that Netanyahu's statement is nothing more than a "trial balloon" for the circle around him. They believe that this is just a strategic move by the Prime Minister so that the deal will be seen as a success for him, even if half of the proposed number of Palestinian prisoners are eventually released.
But after the complex issue of prisoners is agreed upon, Hamas also insists on the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza, according to the newspaper. There is another question that must be discussed in the negotiations: Can Israel prevent Gazans from reaching the northern Gaza Strip for 45 days? What will happen after the ceasefire during the aforementioned period, especially since Netanyahu keeps repeating that the war will not end unless Israel achieves all its goals? However, according to an Israeli source, reaching an agreement is very likely for one reason: US President Joe Biden is determined to end the war and hopes that the prisoner deal will lead to a long-term ceasefire, according to the newspaper.
The Israeli occupation forces bombed several areas in the Gaza Strip , concentrated in the city of Khan Yunis, intermittently, using artillery and drones, while battles and clashes continue between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation soldiers. Al Jazeera's correspondent reported that two displaced people were injured in an Israeli bombing of a house in the vicinity of the European Hospital in Khan Yunis. An air strike was also recorded in conjunction with an artillery shelling targeting the center and west of the city of Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip.
Al Jazeera's correspondent pointed out that the occupation forces continue to besiege hospitals, especially Al Amal Hospital and Nasser Hospital, and deliberately target any object moving in these areas with their drones. Meanwhile, the people of the Al-Tawam neighborhood, northwest of the Gaza Strip, began to return to their area from which the Israeli occupation forces withdrew, but they were unable to recognize their homes after the occupation forces destroyed them and swept away roads, shops, mosques and schools.
On the other hand, the United Nations Children's Fund ( UNICEF ) said that its estimates indicate that 17,000 children in the Gaza Strip live without their families or have been separated from their families. UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell called for the children of Gaza not to be abandoned, saying that their situation is getting darker day after day.
Hundreds of thousands of displaced people residing in tents and various shelter centers also suffer from the extreme cold in light of the scarcity of clothes, bedding, and blankets. The heavy rains that fell on the Gaza Strip also exacerbated their suffering after the tents sank. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees ( UNRWA ) said that the risk of famine in the northern Gaza Strip is worsening in light of the lack of aid, and warned that its operations will stop by the end of this February. The agency added that the enormous humanitarian needs of more than two million people in Gaza face the risk of worsening after the decision of 16 countries to suspend their support.
Meanwhile, battles continue between the Israeli army and Palestinian resistance factions in various areas of the Gaza Strip, despite initial indications of the possibility of reaching a new truce. Al Jazeera's correspondent reported that clashes took place between the resistance and the occupation forces, the echoes of which could be heard in the western areas of Gaza City.
The Al -Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) - said that it targeted an Israeli troop carrier with an "Al-Yassin 105" shell in the Al-Amal neighborhood, west of the city of Khan Yunis. Al-Qassam also announced that it had targeted an Israeli Merkava tank with an Al-Yassin 105 shell in the Jourat Al-Aqqad area, west of Khan Yunis.
For its part, the Israeli army announced the interception of a drone that it said was launched from the Gaza Strip towards the south during the hours of last night. The army said that fighting continues in the Gaza Strip, a day after it announced its withdrawal from the areas northwest of the Gaza governorates and the north of the Strip, for the first time since the start of its ground operation on October 27 last year. He added that the soldiers attacked targets on the shoreline of the Gaza Strip as part of supporting the forces active in the center of the Strip, without specifying the nature of the targets.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant made an inspection tour of the Israeli forces in the Khan Yunis area, south of the Gaza Strip, and said that the army had dismantled the Hamas movement’s force in Khan Yunis, and that it would complete its operations in the city, then move south to Rafah, adding that military pressure on Hamas would contribute to the return of the prisoners. Detainees in Gaza.
The Associated Press said that its analysis of satellite images revealed new destruction operations carried out by Israeli forces at a depth of one kilometer on the edge of the Gaza Strip , as part of an attempt to create a “security buffer zone” despite international objections and warnings. The agency stated - in a report published Thursday and based on expert assessments - that images from the company "Planet Labs" showed widespread destruction of buildings and bulldozing of lands in an area of 6 square kilometers in the Khirbet Khuza'a area, east of Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.
According to the report, the establishment of the buffer zone will consume approximately 60 square kilometers of the total area of the Gaza Strip, which amounts to about 360 square kilometers. The agency said that the Israeli army refused to answer its question about whether it was currently establishing a buffer zone on the Gaza border, but it acknowledged the demolition of buildings along the border. On the other hand, an Israeli government official - who requested that his name not be published - said that there is a "temporary security buffer zone" under construction.
The United States - which provides Israel with massive military support and political cover for its war on Gaza - has repeatedly announced that it does not support the occupation of the Gaza Strip, the establishment of a buffer zone, or any proposal that would lead to reducing the area of ??the Gaza Strip after the war.
But Egyptian and Western diplomats told the Associated Press that Israel informed its Western allies and Arab countries last December that it intends to create a buffer zone. The agency quoted American analysts as saying that the targeted area, one kilometer deep, had witnessed the demolition or destruction of at least 1,329 buildings since the beginning of the war.
The agency stressed that this destruction is only a small part of what was befallen the entire Gaza Strip as a result of the war, as one estimate indicates that half of the buildings in the Gaza Strip were completely or partially destroyed.
The Israeli occupation forces stormed the city of Jenin in the northern West Bank from several directions, and continued their raids in Husan, west of Bethlehem, since the previous night, in the largest storming of the town in years. The occupation soldiers besieged the Al-Marah neighborhood and Wadi Izz al-Din al-Qassam in the eastern region of Jenin, and raided several homes. The sound of gunshots was heard during the incursion of the occupation forces, and sirens sounded in the city and Jenin camp.
A Palestinian was injured after an Israeli military patrol rammed his vehicle during the occupation forces’ storming of the town of Arraba, southwest of Jenin. Sources told Al Jazeera that military vehicles stormed the town and deployed in several neighborhoods.
Meanwhile, the occupation forces continued to storm the town of Husan, where they raided and searched a large number of homes, leaving great devastation and arresting dozens of Palestinians, including children. The entrances to the town were also closed with cement barriers and dirt barriers, and the town was declared a closed military zone while raids continued.
On the other hand, confrontations broke out with the occupation forces during their storming of Ain al-Sultan camp, north of the city of Jericho in the Jordan Valley. Local sources told Al Jazeera that the occupation forces raided the homes of the families of detainees, searched them, and destroyed their contents before withdrawing from the place, while Palestinians set fire to rubber tires in the streets.
Navigation traffic through the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa increased by 67% last January compared to the previous December. Traffic also rebounded in other corridors due to continued tension in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. The Cape of Good Hope is a sea corridor linking Asia and Africa by circling the African continent on a path linking the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Cargo ships found in the Cape of Good Hope an alternative to the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in which navigation began to falter due to the threat of the Yemeni Houthi group to target Israeli ships or those carrying goods for Israel.
With the intervention of Washington, London, and other countries, they formed an alliance to prevent Houthi attacks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Houthi group announced that it now considered all American and British ships among its military targets. At an intermittent pace since January 12, a US-led coalition has launched raids that it says target Houthi sites in various regions of Yemen, in response to its attacks in the Red Sea, which has been met with a response from the group from time to time.
In the face of these developments, alternatives to the most prominent trade route from East to West or vice versa began to appear, represented by the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the south of the Red Sea all the way to the Suez Canal , and from there to the Mediterranean Sea and then to Europe or the American eastern coast.
The American Customs Clearance Corporation website, and other data issued by international companies that track maritime traffic, such as Vessel Tracker, show the most prominent alternative shipping methods to the Red Sea, but all of them require a longer time to reach their final destination. Alternative methods include direct shipping across the Pacific Ocean from Asian ports to the West Coast of the United States, which is a routinely used route for decades, for goods heading from East Asia to the West of the United States or vice versa. This route may become an alternative to the eastern coasts of the United States, through the arrival of goods to the western American shores, and from there they move overland to their final destination in the eastern United States.
Land shipping along the China-Europe Express Railway (CRA) is a land trade route made up of a railway extending from China through the countries of Central Asia, all the way to Europe. However, goods heading from Asia to the American eastern markets may take this land route to Western Europe, and from there they move via ships crossing the Atlantic Ocean to their final destination. Therefore, shipping companies that need to reach markets in Europe and the United States will find the land route provided by CRA a viable option. Goods can travel by direct rail from various production centers in China to multiple cities in Europe.
Average travel times range between 12 and 20 days from Asia to Europe depending on the final destination, compared to approximately two weeks from Asia to the far west of Europe via the Red Sea. The American Customs Clearance Corporation says that since the start of the conflict in the Red Sea, trade movement along the CRA railways has increased by about 30%.
The most common alternative route for ships traveling from Asian ports to Europe and the eastern coast of North America, takes them around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope. According to data from the World Trade Organization, the route passing through the south of South Africa adds between a week and 10 more days for the goods to reach their final destination, whether to Europe or the American eastern coast.
The trade route from the Indian Ocean to the Strait of Hormuz, reaching the ports of the city of Basra (southern Iraq), from where it completes its journeys overland to reach Turkey and from there to Europe. From Turkey, goods also head overland, either to the Black Sea region for goods heading to Eastern Europe, or to the Mediterranean, or they continue their way overland via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line (838 km long, 76 km of which pass through Turkey, 295 in Georgia, and 503 km). In Azerbaijan). The line entered service on October 30, 2017, in cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, to be one of the most important transportation lines in the Silk Line extending from China to Europe.
For years, Russia has been promoting the Northern Sea Route extending along the Siberian coast, that is, bypassing Russia to the meeting point in Europe.
Maps
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All maps are lies. “Not only is it easy to lie with maps, it is essential,” wrote cartographer Mark Monmoneir in his book How to Lie with Maps. He showed that condensing complex, three-dimensional spaces onto a two-dimensional sheet of paper [in old days] is bound to be reductive. But it is impossible to comprehend the war in Gaza without reference to maps, otherwise the entire conflict is reduced to an endless series of meaningless acts of random violence and the suffering of civilians. The first characteristic of guerrilla warfare is the loss of a front line. Evidently, different mappers have different ideas of how to depict the war in Gaza, notably those that seek to depict Israeli progress in the ground campaign. Part of the problem is latency. The news that forms the basis of the maps takes time to filter out to mappers, and the cartographers take time in crafting their maps, and it takes time to curate them. These processes are uneven among mappers, so their maps may differ in detail. Probably there is some ideological bias, or at least thematic apperception, which is understandable in wartime. It may come as no surprise that al-Jazeera maps depict rather less Israeli territorial progress than other sources. Finally, there remains the epistemological question of just exactly what are the colored in areas depicting. Naively, this might be understood as areas of Israeli control, that are no longer contested by the HAMAS. Or possibly these are areas of Israeli presence, in many of which the possibility of an RPG-wielding HAMAS militant popping out of a tunnel unexpectedly remains a live possibility. With the "zero-range" combat characterized by small unit tactics on both sides, maps may be prey to a fallacy of misplaced concreteness. Indeed, by late January 2024 mappers were rather less exuberant in their depictions of IDF advances. While by the end of 2023 maps suggested that it was "mission accomplished" in North Gaza which was depicted as entirely pacified, by late January 2024 enclaves of IDF elements were depicted at the margins of Gaza City, much of North Gaza was now depticted as either HAMAS-controlled, or "contested". Another noteworthy cartographic ambiguity was found to the south of Khan Yunis in the stretch of Salah Al-Deen avenue running north from Al-Nasr through al-Fukhari to the vicinity of Tawhid Mosque in the environs of Khan Yunis proper. By the end of 2023 some cartographers indicated that a large swath of territory centered on this avenue had been liberated by the IDF, while other cartographers professed no knowlege of an IDF presence in that part of the Strip. By late January 2024 there are suggestions that while the avenue itself was an IDF permissive corridor for nearly the full length of the Strip, much of adjacent territory was not. By 29 January 2024 Al-Jazeera had finally come around to some of the cartographic conventions of other mappers, indicating "occupied areas", and even providing a map of IDF ORBAT in the Strip.
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Bystanders
More than 800 civil servants in the United States and Europe signed a statement, warning of their governments' policies related to the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip. The signatories of the "Transatlantic Statement" said that their governments risk complicity in one of the worst humanitarian disasters of this century.
The statement, which was published by several Western media outlets, added that the current policies of their governments weaken their moral standing and undermine their ability to defend freedom, justice and human rights in the world. The statement is the latest indication of major opposition among employees of governments considered allies of Israel.
The statement was signed by government employees from the United States and 11 European countries, including the United Kingdom , France , and Germany . The signatories said they expressed their professional concerns internally, but were “overpowered by political and ideological considerations.” The statement warned that there is a risk that these governments will contribute to serious violations of international humanitarian law, war crimes, and even ethnic cleansing or genocide.
The American New York Times said that this is the first time that officials from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union have collectively and publicly criticized their governments regarding the war in Gaza. The identities of those who signed or supported the statement were not announced, and the British Broadcasting Corporation ( BBC ) said that nearly half of the signatories are officials, each of whom has at least 10 years of experience in government.
The statement notes that although the Israeli aggression has caused unprecedented destruction of lives and property in the Gaza Strip , there appears to be no practical strategy to effectively remove the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) as a threat, and there is no political solution to ensure Israel's long-term security. The statement called on the United States and European governments to "stop assuring the public that there is a defensible strategic justification behind the Israeli operation."
Axis of Resistance
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed - in two phone calls - with the head of the Political Bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), Ismail Haniyeh, and the Secretary-General of the Islamic Jihad Movement , Ziad Al-Nakhalah, the latest developments in the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said - in a statement - that the minister stressed that immediately stopping Israel’s crimes against the defenseless people in Gaza is key to establishing stability and calm in the entire region. Abdullahian assured Haniyeh and Nakhla that the Palestinian people, the true owners of the Palestinian land, have the right to determine their fate and future, and that no party has the right to impose its will and plans on them, praising the heroic resistance of the Palestinian people during the four months of war.
For his part, Haniyeh informed the Iranian side of the latest developments in the situation in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and the political plans and initiatives regarding stopping the Israeli war and exchanging prisoners, according to the same statement. The head of Hamas's political bureau stressed that they will not consider the solutions presented to them unless they achieve the interests of the Palestinian people.
In his contact with the Secretary-General of the Jihad Movement, Abdullahian discussed with him the latest developments in Gaza and Palestine and the proposals presented to the Palestinian factions regarding a ceasefire and prisoner exchange. The statement indicated that Abdullahian stressed - during the call with Nakhalah - the necessity of continuing regional and international efforts to immediately stop Israel’s crimes against the defenseless people in Gaza, and to oppose forced displacement. For his part, Al-Nakhalah stressed that the Palestinian people will emerge victorious from the war in the end, and Israel will have no choice but to surrender to the will of the Palestinian people.
Allied for Democracy
The newspaper "Haaretz" quoted an official in the "Army" party, led by War Council member Benny Gantz , as saying that the party will withdraw from the Israeli emergency government if it gets the impression that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the prisoner exchange deal for political considerations, and if Netanyahu announces military rule. in Gaza. Israeli media said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appealed to his partners from the Camp Party led by Benny Gantz not to leave the war government, indicating that this would harm the unity of the Israeli ranks.
Israeli media had reported leaks of what happened in the mini-cabinet session for security and political affairs, which extended until late Thursday evening, and said that Netanyahu resolved the debate between his ministers in the session by confirming what he described as 3 conditions that Israel cannot accept in order to conclude an exchange deal. New for prisoners with Hamas. It quoted Netanyahu as saying that his government cannot allow a ceasefire and end the war, and does not agree to the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners, nor will it allow the army to leave the Gaza Strip. During his visit to wounded soldiers, the Israeli Prime Minister pledged not to end the war before achieving what he called complete victory.
For his part, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid ridiculed the continuous leaks of what happens in cabinet meetings and accused the prime minister of incompetence. Israeli Channel 12 quoted members of the security mini-ministerial council as saying that the prisoner exchange deal is still far away, and that a large number of ministers expressed their reservations about the duration of the truce and the stages of the deal’s development, noting that the majority of ministers demanded that they be included in the negotiation process and not be informed of it as a fait accompli. .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put forward 3 points according to which he said his government would reject any prisoner exchange deal with the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), which were not surprising to analysts and experts who spoke during the analytical pause on Al Jazeera in the program “Gaza... What Next?”
The first point - according to Israeli media - relates to the fact that the Netanyahu government cannot allow a ceasefire and an end to the war, while the second and third points are that it refuses to release thousands of Palestinian prisoners, and that it will not allow the army to leave the Gaza Strip.
Professor of Political Science at An-Najah National University, Dr. Hassan Ayoub, was not surprised by the conditions set by Netanyahu because his positions do not differ from the positions of the extremist ministers in his government, especially the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich , and the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir , as for them the issue is not related to the release of prisoners. Palestinians, but rather by permanently turning the Gaza Strip into an unviable area and not allowing the return of Palestinian refugees, who represent 70% of the Strip’s population. Any prisoner exchange deal would delay the achievement of Netanyahu's current goal of reaching Rafah and displacing the residents, either out of the Gaza Strip or their return to Khan Yunis and the north of the Gaza Strip.
The academic and expert on Israeli affairs, Dr. Muhammad Halsa, went in the same vein, saying that Netanyahu does not need to be pressured by the right-wing ministers in his government, indicating that their positions intersect with his position that the war on Gaza must continue.
Regarding the United States’ handling of Netanyahu’s conditions, Phyllis Pence, director of the New Globalization Project at the Institute for Policy Studies, said that the administration of US President Joe Biden refuses to do what would lead to “stopping the slaughter of the Palestinian people and putting a final end to the genocide they are subjected to,” which is the call to A comprehensive ceasefire in the Gaza Strip , considering that talk about a two-state solution and disarmament of the Palestinian state is “old language and the language of Oslo,” and is not linked to the necessary ceasefire.
The US administration, Pence added, must impose conditions on Israel regarding military aid and the issue of impunity. She said that the Biden administration is still not ready to put pressure on Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire, and that what is currently taking place is talk of a temporary truce.
In her comment on the executive order issued by the US President aimed at punishing Jewish settlers who attack Palestinians in the occupied West Bank , the American spokeswoman described this decision as a formal and symbolic measure, as it affects 4 people who do not have any property or accounts in the United States that are subject to sanctions, It revealed that a large percentage of settlers are immune from this type of punishment.
For his part, the professor of political science at An-Najah National University confirmed that the executive order issued by Biden contains fallacies and is a very dangerous matter regarding Israeli settlement in the West Bank, as it does not address the issue that this settlement is a war crime according to international humanitarian law and the Fourth Geneva Convention, and the other - The spokesman adds that the executive order includes Palestinians who could pose a threat to American interests.
In the same context, the academic and expert on Israeli affairs saw that the Palestinians’ problem is not with a few settlers, but rather in the policies adopted by Netanyahu and his government, which today, through Smotrich and Ben Gvir, raise the issue of a return to settlement inside the Gaza Strip.
The expected prisoner exchange deal between Tel Aviv and the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) has captured the attention of the Israeli media, amid a sharp division between the necessity of concluding it to recover prisoners detained in the Gaza Strip and a warning of its consequences. Israeli media discussions showed an absolute rejection of the deal by the extreme right-wing forces led by Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich , as they considered it a victory for Hamas and its leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar ..
In this context, Ben Gvir said during a Knesset session, “We will not allow a situation in which Hamas wins, and we will not allow a deal in which Hamas wins.” In turn, Smotrich said, "Sinwar, who is now sitting in his fortified shelter, is watching you and saying, 'In this way I will achieve my goal... Israeli society has returned to disagreements and is disintegrating,' referring to the demonstrators' chants of 'Now...now' (release the prisoners), 'whatever the cost' and 'Stop.' the war"..
He added, in the words of Sinwar, "The army is reducing the number of its forces and discharging its reserve soldiers. More of this, and after a short time, I will achieve victory and survive." As for the voices welcoming the expected deal, they said that it is the only way to recover the prisoners detained in Gaza, and that it is Israel’s duty to bring them back alive because they were victims of the failure of the security and military services on the seventh of last October.
In this context, one of the guests of the Israeli Channel 13 pointed out that “the State of Israel should have prevented the occurrence of October 7th, and that there should be a different deployment of forces on the border with Gaza.” It is noteworthy that the Israeli channel "Kan 11" revealed that among Hamas' demands to conclude the deal: the release of all activists from its elite units who participated in the October 7 attack, indicating that Israel has not yet taken any decision regarding the release of these fighters..
American politician Dennis Ross predicted that Israel would witness a major political change as a result of the repercussions of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood , highlighting that eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) is far-fetched because it is an idea, but he believes, on the other hand, that disarming Gaza is possible.
In its introduction that began an interview with him, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica said that when the story is good, it explains the issue much better than studies and theses. It added that Dennis Ross, who is 75 years old, has many good stories about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially since he worked for the White House for 30 years on this thorny issue... initially as director of foreign policy planning during the era of President George Bush. The father , then the special coordinator of former US President Bill Clinton in the Middle East, became, during the era of the other former president Barack Obama, a special advisor to the president for Iranian and Arab Gulf affairs. He now serves as co-director of the Jewish People Policy Institute.
“Months before his assassination, Yitzhak Rabin one day asked me who, in my opinion, would have a decisive influence in the 1996 Israeli elections. I referred to him as one of the prominent politicians of that era. But he told me, ‘No.’ So I mentioned another name to him, and he said, ‘No.’” So I asked him in turn, “Who then?” He replied, “Two bombs from Hamas, and the Israelis will vote for Benjamin Netanyahu .” And this is what actually happened.
Ross explained to the newspaper, saying, “In my opinion, extremist movements have always played a decisive role in thwarting efforts aimed at reaching peace.” Ross cited the crisis that Israel is experiencing today, which he said is headlined by Smotrich and Ben Gvir , the two Messianic nationalist ministers divorced from reality, who insist on the need to expel the Palestinians to another place.
In response to a question: How long will Netanyahu last with this right-wing government? “We are about to see major political change in Israel,” Ross said. October 7 was the darkest day in Netanyahu's history. The current ruling coalition is also unable to manage what needs to be done. Regarding what must be done, Ross said, “The conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis, who are exhausted from the shocks they have received over the years, has become an existential conflict... two national movements competing for the same space. Therefore, the only solution is two states for two peoples, provided that neither of them is a failure,” stressing. On the need to carry out reforms within the current Palestinian Authority.
Ross: The conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis, who are exhausted from the traumas they have received over the years, has become an existential conflict: two national movements competing for the same space. Therefore, the only solution is two states for two peoples, provided that neither of them is a failure.
In response to what these reforms are, Ross pointed out that the Palestinians have been able in the past to make notable reforms. This was precisely in 2007 when the Bush administration convinced Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to appoint Salam Fayyad as prime minister. The Palestinian National Authority worked differently at that time, restoring security and the economy. This is the way, Ross added. Abu Mazen must now choose a reliable prime minister who is prepared to cleanse the Palestinian National Authority from within.
To the newspaper’s question about the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip , which is claiming thousands of casualties, and with the complete absence of a clear Israeli strategy, except for Netanyahu’s statements in which he affirms his intention to eliminate Hamas. “You can't eliminate Hamas, because you can't eliminate an idea,” Ross said. On the other hand, Ross says that Gaza could be demilitarized if the United States and Israel focused on activating an international mechanism to ensure that only post-war funds and donations are used for reconstruction. Thus, I think it will be complicated for Hamas to regain control of the Gaza Strip.
Regarding the European Union’s proposal for a temporary Arab-led UN mission in Gaza during the period following the cessation of fighting, Ross said, “Yes. There are several applicable models for the interim administration. The important thing is that it be based on a reconstruction process that does not lead to the re-arming of Hamas.” Regarding the possibility of Russia voting to veto such a proposal in the Security Council . “With an Arab-led mission and an Arab initiative proposed by the Saudis or a coalition of Arab countries, I think the Russians and Chinese will not hinder it,” Ross said.
Ross spoke of an Arab mission in Gaza after the war, ranging from 18-24 months, after which its leadership would transfer to the Palestinian Authority, with the reunification of Gaza with the West Bank. Regarding the duration of this mission, Ross said, “I think it will range between 18-24 months, after which its leadership will transfer to the Palestinian Authority and with the reunification of Gaza with the West Bank.”
Regarding the question: Can the plan succeed, even if Yahya Al-Sinwar is not arrested ? Ross said, “The issue is not related to Sinwar as much as it is related to Hamas. We must ensure that Hamas does not have control in the Gaza Strip.”
Regarding the question: How can we talk about a two-state solution at a time when settlements have become present everywhere in the West Bank, and settler violence is increasing day by day? Ross said, “In 2000, former President Bill Clinton proposed annexing 55 settlements close to the Green Line in which he lives.” "85% of the Israelis in the West Bank belong to Israel in exchange for compensating the Palestinians with the same area of Israeli land and dismantling 75 small settlements located far from the Green Line. This plan is still valid provided that Israel works to suppress the notorious settlers who are working to take their rights into their own hands," he said.
Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs
On 7 October 2023, Hamas and other armed groups present in the Gaza Strip carried out an attack in Israel, killing more than 1,200 persons, injuring thousands and abducting some 240 people, many of whom continue to be held hostage. It was the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war. Palestinian armed groups launched thousands of missiles at Israel Following this attack, Israel launched a large-scale military operation in Gaza, by land, air and sea.
The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."
The HAMAS Ministry of Health in the besieged sector announced that the number of victims of the Israeli operation its beginning had risen to 27,019 martyrs, and the killing of nearly 10,000 Palestinian children and 6,600 women killed. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
The number wounded was 66,139. The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza had said much earlier that the number of missing people had risen to more than 8,000, including including 4,700 children and women, amid expectations that the toll will be double thi figures.
The IDF intensified its military operations in the West Bank, and increased the pace of incursions and raids into cities, towns, and camps, resulting in the martyrdom of 380 Palestinians, the injury of about 3,950, and the arrest of 5,780, according to official HAMAS sources. As of 17 January 2023, the Israeli escalation in the West Bank led to the death of 360 Palestinians, the injury of nearly 2,200, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, and the arrest of about 6,000, according to the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club.
More than 130 Hezbollah fighters were killed in Lebanon during exchanges of bombing operations with Israel.
Israel revised down the death toll from the October Hamas attacks in southern Israel from 1,400 to 1,200. IDF had said previously it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists, a total that now would increas to about 1,700.
The total number of Israeli deaths has risen to 563 [557?] since the start of the war on October 7, including 233 [220?] killed since the ground invasion as a result of the ongoing clashes with the Palestinian resistance. Among them were at least 56 with the rank of platoon commander, 43 with the rank of company commander, 9 with the rank of battalion commander, and 5 with the rank of brigade commander. These officers constitute 23% of the total deaths of the Israeli army in the war on Gaza.
Israeli media reported that 27% of the Israeli military casualties in the war were officers. In detail, the media highlighted that three brigade commanders, four battalion commanders, and other senior officers have been killed in the war so far.
The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that 29 of the army's deaths were caused by "friendly fire" and operational incidents since the start of the ground war in Gaza, late last October. The Israeli authority explained that "18 army soldiers were killed by friendly fire, two were killed as a result of gunfire (without explanation), and 9 Israeli soldiers were killed in ammunition, weapons, or run-over accidents." The Jerusalem Post newspaper revealed that 15 soldiers were killed in the Strip without their bodies being found.
According to some reports statistics indicate that 20% of the Israeli losses were due to friendly fire. Because the nature of the battle has become completely different from what was expected, and it lacks a front line.
It was announced that soldiers wounded in the Gaza Strip battles numbered to 2,802 since the beginning of the war, including 1,288 who had been wounded since the start of the ground attack on October 27, 2023.
The Israeli army reported that 2,771 officers and soldiers were injured since the seventh of last October, including 407 who are still receiving treatment for their injuries in the Gaza battles, and the condition of 48 of them is serious, while 405 were seriously injured, 692 were moderately injured, and 1,562 were described as having minor injuries since the start of the war. The Israeli army also said 26 January 2024 that since the beginning of the ground attack on Gaza, 258 soldiers have been seriously injured. There are 423 moderate injuries, compared to 577 minor injuries.
At least 13,599 Israelis were injured, according to i24 TV.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper had reported that 5,000 soldiers had been wounded since the beginning of the war on October 7, and that the Ministry of Defense had recognized 2,000 soldiers as disabled so far.
An estimate by the Israeli Ministry of Defense expected that the number of soldiers with disabilities in the war taking place in the Gaza Strip since October 7 of last year would reach 12,500 soldiers. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that the Soldiers' Rehabilitation Department of the Ministry of Defense has dealt with 3,400 soldiers who were classified as disabled in the army since last October 7.
The Israeli army revealed that about 9,000 of its soldiers have received “psychological assistance” since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip on October 7, and about a quarter of them have not returned to combat. This came according to a new statement revealed by the Army Medical Corps, according to Channel 12 and the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. According to the statement, nearly 9,000 soldiers have applied for psychological assistance since the beginning of the war, and approximately a quarter of them have not returned to combat.
The statement continued, "In total, about 13,000 regular and reserve soldiers required accompaniment or medical treatment at some level during the fighting, and thousands of them were injured in the battles."
Al Jazeera military and strategic expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi expressed his conviction that the numbers of dead and wounded announced by Israel “cannot represent the truth,” due to a discrepancy between the Israeli army’s data and the Walla website, which is close to the army itself.
In an interview with RT, Military strategist retired Tunisian Brigadier General Tawfiq Didi said that the number of Israeli army deaths in the Gaza battles is much greater than what Israel announces. Didi explained in an interview with the “Best Saying” program on RT channel, “The number of people killed in battles can be easily known, as the equation in wars is that for every 3 wounded there is a dead person, and the numbers now in Israel hover around 12,500 wounded and disabled people, and when we divide by Three, we find that the death toll exceeds 4,000, especially after eliminating more than a thousand tanks and armored vehicles, and I know what happens when Kornet missiles hit a tank. Its ammunition explodes and no one is left alive.”
He added, "The Israelis announce their dead only of those of Jewish origin and of the first race, meaning all Arabs, Falash, and those who are among them. They are not counted because they are of the second category. So I am sure that the number exceeds 4 thousand dead, and this is a very easy military calculation."
He pointed out, "The Palestinian resistance documented everything it did, unlike the Israelis. The resistance documented shooting at tanks and armored vehicles and destroying the houses in which the Israeli soldiers were holed up, and we saw them being killed... We saw the Kornet hitting the tanks, we saw Al-Yassin 105, so the difference is clear."
Hostages
Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed have been held as hostages in Gaza since 2014 and 2015, respectively. Unlike the roughly 240 people kidnapped in the Hamas October 7 terrorist attacks, the campaign for the release of Mengistu and al-Sayed has received little publicity. Mengistu is known to suffer from what HRW deemed "serious" mental health issues. "Avera crossed one of the safest borders in the world, under the eyes of the security services," recalled Gil Elias, a relative. "We're talking about a mentally ill person who got lost." The calls for the release of Mengistu and al-Sayed have been barely audible during the many years they have been held captive in Gaza.
Israel had previously estimated there were 116 living hostages in Palestinian custody. Israel declared 20 out of 136 people in Gaza captivity dead in absentia, after announcing its forces had recovered the bodies of two hostages. By another count, 132 of them are still being held in Gaza, and 25 of them have been confirmed dead. Israel considers those still held by Hamas to be hostages regardless of whether they are dead or alive.
Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy earlier had told reporters that Hamas still held 137 captives. The resistance released 10 Israeli detainees, 4 Thais and 2 Russian women, who were released outside the agreement. Over the course of 6 days, Israel has received 102 detainees, women and children, including 78 Israelis, in exchange for the release of 234 Palestinian prisoners, women and children.
Eylon Levy, the Israeli government spokesperson, told reporters 01 December 2023:
- Hamas still held 137 hostages from the October attacks, in addition to four others who went missing before the war
- The hostages include two children aged four and 10 months, who, Hamas now claims, are dead
- 117 male hostages are still kept in Gaza, including the two children, as well as 20 females
- 126 hostages are Israelis, and 11 others are foreign nationals
- Foreign nationals are eight Thais, one Nepalese, one Tanzanian and one French Mexican citizen
- Ten of the remaining hostages are 75 and older.
- There are seven missing people since the October 7 attack
- Hamas had released 110 hostages so far – 86 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals.
Some of the rest are soldiers, seized when Hamas raided military bases in Israel. They may end up being held the longest. The Israeli military had not specified how many soldiers were captured, nor their ranks.
According to some estimates, Hamas was initially holding nearly 210 of the 240 hostages, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad was holding the remaining 30. About 40 Israelis remained missing. More than 40 hostages taken from Israel into Gaza on October 7th are not currently in the custody of Hamas, the group responsible for the attack, according to a CNN report based on a diplomatic source briefed on the negotiations, CNN's prior reports had indicated that an estimated 40 to 50 hostages were held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad or other unidentified groups or individuals.
Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said on Hamas’ telegram account that 23 bodies of the 60 missing Israel hostages were trapped under the rubble. “It seems that we will never be able to reach them due to the continued brutal aggression of the occupation against Gaza,” he said.
The Palestinian Prisoners' Club revealed that about 11,000 arrests were carried out by the Israeli army during the year 2023 in the West Bank, including occupied Jerusalem, in addition to arrests from the Gaza Strip before the seventh of last October. The number of people arrested by the Israelis in the West Bank since that date has exceeded 6,420. The total number of prisoners in Israeli prisons is 8,800, as documented by the club until the end of December 2023. Palestinian prisoner institutions said more than 3,290 administrative detainees, which is the highest percentage since the years of the 1987 Intifada, and 661 who were classified as “unlawful combatants” from Gaza, and this is the number available only as a clear given. The Prisoners' Club stated that cases of arrest among women amounted to (300), and this toll includes women from the occupied interior detained after October 7, while the number of cases of children reached 1,085. The arrest campaigns affected all groups, including women and children, as the number of women who were arrested reached about 200, while the number of arrests among children until the end of last December exceeded 355 children.
Israel said on 14 January 2024 that, since the beginning of the war, over 2,960 wanted persons have been arrested throughout the Judea and Samaria Division and the Bekaa and Valleys Division, over 1,350 of whom are affiliated with Hamas. On 08 January 2024 it was reported that more than 1,350 wanted persons had been arrested throughout the Judea and Samaria Division and the Bekaa and Valleys Division, more than 870 of whom are associated with the terrorist organization Hamas.
The institutions added in the statement that “the occupation arrested 210 women during the aforementioned period, and this statistic includes women who were arrested from the territories in 1948, and more than 355 children,” pointing out that “the outcome of the arrest campaigns includes all those who were arrested from homes, and through military checkpoints, Those who were forced to surrender themselves under pressure, and those who were detained.” It explained that "the number of arrests among journalists reached 50, of whom 35 remain in detention, and 20 of them were transferred to administrative detention."
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