Operation Iron Swords - Day 25 - 31 October 2023
Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."
Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs
Palestinian health authorities say that at least 8,648 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, more than three times the number killed in the six-week-long war in 2014. The death toll included 3,542 children and 2,187 women [these subtotals fluctuate inexplicably]. In addition, 21,048 citizens have been injured since October 7th, including at least 6,360 children and 4,891 women. More than 1,650 were missing and presumed buried under rubble, including 940 children. On the West bank, at least 123 Palestinians had been killed, and more than 1,980 injured. IDF said it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists.
More than 1,405 Israelis were killed as a result of HAMAS attacks, including 311 soldiers and officers, according to what was announced by the Israeli army. At least 5,431 were injured.
Some 229 hostages are being held by militants in the Gaza Strip. This figure has gone down by one as a female soldier who was held hostage has been freed by Hamas. Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades said “almost 50” hostages had been killed in Israeli bombing raids in the three weeks since the war began. About 100 Israelis remained missing.
By one estimate, over 10,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. More Israeli raids in the occupied West Bank led to the arrests of dozens of Palestinians, and the number held in Israeli jails has more than doubled to about 10,000 since the Hamas attack on October 7. Israeis jails initially held about 4,000 prisoners from Gaza, and more than 1,550 from the West Bank.
Thousands of Palestinians whose permits to work in Israel were revoked are believed to be held in detention camps, but Israel has so far refused to release information about them, human rights groups say. About 18,500 residents of Gaza held permits to work outside the besieged strip. On October 10, Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) revoked all work permits it had previously issued to Gaza residents, instantly turning permit-holders into “illegal aliens”. The Minister of Labour for the Palestinian Authority estimated that about 4,500 workers are unaccounted for and are believed to have been detained by Israeli forces.
Operational Update
Between 50 and 100 Palestinians have been killed and over 150 wounded in Israeli airstrikes on the Jabalia refugee camp in the Gaza Strip, Al Arabiya reported, citing the health ministry. Israel bombed the refugee camp with 6 shells, each one weighing a ton of explosives, according to Gaza’s interior ministry. The combined toll of those killed and injured in the airstrikes was estimated by HAMAS to be a total of 400.
Israel’s military confirmed striking Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp, saying the operation succeeded in killing a key Hamas commander linked to the October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group. “His elimination was carried out as part of a wide-scale strike on terrorists and terror infrastructure belonging to the Central [Jabalia] Battalion, which had taken control over civilian buildings in Gaza City,” the military said, referring to the targeting of Ibrahim Biari, the commander of Hamas’ Central Jabaliya Battalion.
Spokesperson for Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Obaida, said his fighters have managed to destroy at least 22 Israeli army vehicles so far. Here are other key points he said during his speech: “The enemy began its ground manoeuvres and has advanced to several points including northwest of Beit Lahiya, northwest of Gaza city, and in the vicinity of the Beit Hanoun border crossing... Our forces have worked and are still working to block and defend [Gaza] from the enemy’s attacks in all of their locations.... “For the last three days, our fighters have waged fierce confrontations, and despite the enemy’s advancements in [destroyed] areas we have been able to takeover their positions....
“Our fighters have attacked the enemy’s tanks and vehicles with various kinds of anti-armour weaponry.... They have also used short-range missiles to attack enemy targets.... Our defence operation is ongoing and is still in its starting phase.... Gaza will be the burial site of the enemy.... We call on every honourable soldier and fighter in this nation to seize the opportunity and participate in this battle.”
Israeli troops push deeper into Gaza, with witnesses reporting heavy clashes after tanks reached a residential area in Gaza City. As Israeli advances into Gaza continue, they appeared to be coming from more than one direction. It is yet unclear whether these are still reconnaissances-in-force or if Israel chose to make the ground invasion a “rolling operation” increasing force levels gradually over time. For Israel’s military, such a careful approach may prove more practical than an all-out offensive. If tactics are adapted daily to the situation on the ground, the successful ones can be replicated elsewhere. From a political perspective, it buys generals time to see how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s position developed.
Elijah Maginer, a military analyst, says the Israeli army now is concentrating its efforts on the more “vulnerable areas” of Gaza, particularly in the northeast and the northwest. “These areas are narrower than the wider Gaza Strip and they are witnessing a concentration of the forces,” Maginer told Al Jazeera.
“The Israeli military is advancing on three main fronts. We have seen on the coastal axis … and then in the middle, to cut Gaza into two areas. So splitting Gaza into two, render much easier for the Israeli army to isolate the less populated area in the north, and easier for the Israelis to impose its control,” he added. The Israeli army’s mission and tactics have now changed into a “wider advance and into a real invasion” through several axes, Maginer said.
At a time when the Israeli political and military levels unanimously agreed on the necessity of overthrowing the rule of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) in the Gaza Strip , and pushing for the return of the Palestinian Authority to power in the Strip under regional and international auspices, the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence reportedly recommended occupying the Gaza Strip and displacing the Palestinians to Sinai.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office played down the report compiled by the Intelligence Ministry as a hypothetical exercise — a “concept paper.” But its conclusions deepened long-standing Egyptian fears that Israel wants to make Gaza into Egypt's problem, and revived for Palestinians memories of their greatest trauma — the uprooting of hundreds of thousands of people who fled or were forced from their homes during the fighting surrounding Israel's creation in 1948. “We are against transfer to any place, in any form, and we consider it a red line that we will not allow to be crossed," Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said of the report. “What happened in 1948 will not be allowed to happen again."
Egypt has made clear throughout this latest war that it does not want to take in a wave of Palestinian refugees. Egypt has long feared that Israel wants to force a permanent expulsion of Palestinians into its territory, as happened during the war surrounding Israel's independence. Egypt ruled Gaza between 1948 and 1967, when Israel captured the territory, along with the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The vast majority of Gaza's population are the descendants of Palestinian refugees uprooted from what is now Israel.
Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah El-Sissi, has said a mass influx of refugees from Gaza would eliminate the Palestinian nationalist cause. It would also risk bringing militants into Sinai, where they might launch attacks on Israel, he said. That would endanger the countries’ 1979 peace treaty. He proposed that Israel instead house Palestinians in its Negev Desert, which neighbors the Gaza Strip, until it ends its military operations.
Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the paper threatened to damage relations with a key partner. “If this paper is true, this is a grave mistake. It might cause a strategic rift between Israel and Egypt,” said Guzansky, who said he has consulted for the ministry in the past. “I see it either as ignorance or someone who wants to negatively affect Israel-Egypt relations, which are very important at this stage.”
The existence of the document does not necessarily indicate that its recommendations are being considered by the security system. Despite its name, the Ministry of Intelligence is not responsible for any intelligence body, but independently prepares studies and policy papers, which are distributed for perusal by the government and security bodies but are not binding on them. The annual budget of the office is about NIS 25 million and its influence is considered relatively small.
The Ministry's recommendation came in the context of scenarios of military dealings with the Gaza Strip through war, in order to ensure the future security of Israelis in the south and in the " Gaza envelope." This week its existence was reported in "Calcalist". Amitai Gazit reported "Intelligence Minister Gila Gamaliel recommends the transfer of Gaza residents to Sinai at the end of the war ... After not being heard throughout the war, Gila Gamliel and her office recommend in an internal document an extreme course of forced displacement of the residents of Gaza. The Egyptian president opposes the transfer that would make Sinai a base for attacks against Israel."
The document is used for internal discussions between government ministries. "It is not supposed to reach the public, but it reached a group that is currently establishing a movement called the "Settlement Headquarters - Gaza Strip" that seeks to return the settlement to the Gaza Strip. It is possible that the document, which probably will not affect the government's policy, was written to give support to the movement and its goals and therefore also reached her hands. In any case, this is a direct continuation of the extreme policy that the government has been promoting since it was established....
Gazit wrote "Those who are not familiar with the structure of the government and had come across the document might think that it reflects an official plan of the State of Israel. But there is a big gap between the logo of the Ministry of Intelligence and the real influence of this tiny office on government policy . Its annual budget is about NIS 25 million and none of the intelligence and security agencies are subordinate to it. According to the former Minister of Intelligence, MK Elazar Stern, "the ministry has no ministerial responsibility for the intelligence agencies. They can take the recommendations into account, and they can not." Stern added that "Gamliel has a small team, but she can put out works for an extreme research institute. The right has all kinds of ecclesiastical-like bodies for every field."
These alternatives were revealed by the Israeli website Local Call (Sikha Mekomit in Hebrew) is a Hebrew-language news site advancing citizen journalism and an independent media. The 10-page PDF document dated October 13, 2023contains the logo of the Ministry of Intelligence headed by Minister Gila Gamliel of the Likud Party headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , and was presented to the military establishment and leaders of the security services in Tel Aviv.
An official at the Ministry of Intelligence confirmed to "Local Talk" that this is an authentic document, which was distributed to the security system on behalf of the Ministry's Policy Division, and "was not supposed to reach the media.
The document recommends that Israel act "to evacuate the Gazan population to Sinai" during the war: to establish tent cities and new cities in northern Sinai, which will accommodate the deported population, and then "to create a sterile zone of several kilometers inside Egypt and not allow the population to return to activity or residence near the Israeli border."
The recommendations formulated by the Israeli Ministry of Intelligence revolve around the fifth clause of the document, which includes three alternatives that were discussed and examined:
- Alternative A: Keeping the population in Gaza and restoring Palestinian Authority rule.
- Alternative B: Maintaining the population in Gaza and establishing local Arab rule.
- Alternative C: evacuate the population from Gaza to Sinai.
The document's authors believe that Alternative (C), which recommends reoccupying Gaza and displacing its population to Sinai, can be implemented, but it requires a firm stance by the political level in the face of international pressure, while emphasizing the necessity of ensuring the support of the United States and other countries supportive of Israel.
The document explans alternatives (a) and (b) suffer from fundamental defects, especially with regard to everything related to the strategic repercussions of these alternatives and their infeasibility and inefficiency in the long term. The two alternatives will not provide the required deterrence, will not bring about a change in awareness, and could lead within years to the same problems and threats that the State of Israel faces from 2007 until now.
As for alternative (v), which recommends the occupation and displacement of Gazans, the conclusions were that it carries with it many dangers. The document acknowledged that the division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state, and therefore the introduction of the Palestinian Authority into Gaza is the most dangerous alternative among the three alternatives, because it may lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The document stated, “It is impossible for the result of Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7 to be an unprecedented victory for the Palestinian national movement and pave the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state.” The conclusions estimated that such a victory through reconciliation and the return of power to rule the Gaza Strip would prolong the conflict, would cost thousands of losses among Israeli civilians and soldiers, and would not guarantee security for Israel.
Despite the risks inherent in the option of occupation and displacement, the Ministry of Intelligence document reportedly recommends implementing what it described as “a complete transfer of all residents of the Gaza Strip to North Sinai,” as it is the preferred option among the three alternatives proposed by the document, with regard to the future of the Palestinians in the Strip after the end of the war.
It also recommends that Israel take action to “evacuate the residents of Gaza to Sinai” during the war, by establishing tent cities and new cities in northern Sinai, to accommodate the Palestinian residents who will be displaced from the Strip, and then “establishing a sterile buffer zone for several kilometers inside Egypt, and not allowing the Palestinians to return or Residence near the Israeli border.
The occupation and displacement plan is divided into several stages:
- The first phase: Gazans must be evacuated to the south, while Israeli Air Force strikes will focus on the northern part of the Strip.
- The second phase: The Israeli army’s ground incursion into Gaza will begin, which will lead to the occupation of the entire strip from north to south, and work on what it described as “clearing tunnels and underground bunkers of Hamas fighters.”
- At the same time that the Israeli army is occupying the Gaza Strip, the citizens of Gaza will be forcibly moved to Egyptian territory and leave the Strip, and will not be allowed to return to it permanently, as the document stated: “It is important to leave the corridors towards the south usable, while allowing the evacuation of the civilian population towards Rafah.”
Egypt would not necessarily be the Palestinian refugees' last stop. The document speaks about Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates supporting the plan either financially, or by taking in uprooted residents of Gaza as refugees and in the long term as citizens. Canada’s “lenient” immigration practices also make it a potential resettlement target, the document adds.
At first glance, this proposal “is liable to be complicated in terms of international legitimacy,” the document acknowledges. “In our assessment, fighting after the population is evacuated would lead to fewer civilian casualties compared to what could be expected if the population were to remain.”
The Ministry of Intelligence proposes to promote a campaign dedicated to the Palestinians in Gaza that would “motivate them to agree to the plan and make them give up their lands,” according to the recommendations in the document regarding occupation and displacement.
Regarding the messages included in the promotional campaign to push the residents of the Gaza Strip to immigrate, the document says, “The messages must focus on the loss of the land, that is, clarifying that there is no longer any hope of returning to the lands that Israel will occupy in the near future, whether that is true or not.”
The document also stated that the Israeli government should lead a public campaign to promote the “transfer” plan in the Western world, in which the transfer of residents from Gaza will be promoted as a humanitarianly necessary step, because it will lead to “a smaller number of casualties among the civilian population compared to the expected number of casualties.” Unless displaced.”
The document claims that the model of Israeli military rule and Palestinian Authority civilian rule, as it exists in the West Bank, is set to fail in Gaza: “There is no way to maintain an effective military occupation in Gaza except on the basis of a military presence and without settlement. In a short time there will be There is an Israeli internal and international demand for withdrawal.”
As for the alternative of forming a local Arab leadership to replace Hamas, it is undesirable, according to the document, because there are no local opposition movements to it, and the new leadership may be more extreme. “The likely scenario is not a change in ideological perception, but rather the creation of new Islamic movements, and perhaps More extreme,” the document says.
The document concluded by saying, “If the Palestinian population remains in the Gaza Strip, there will be many Palestinian deaths during the expected occupation of Gaza, and this will harm Israel’s international image even more than the transfer of the population. For all these reasons, the Ministry of Intelligence recommends encouraging the permanent transfer of all Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai.”
Israeli forces began their attempts to penetrate Gaza by land on a limited basis in several areas from two main directions: The north, near Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun, and the east, south of the Zaytoun neighborhood, were almost empty except for agricultural lands for most of their area, and each of them entered the Strip at a depth of several kilometers, which are what are described in security terms as burned areas, and thus this allows the occupation forces to spread. Without any urban obstacles or ambushes that could pose a severe danger. However, as soon as the occupation forces approached urban areas, such as Salah al-Din Street, which divides the Gaza Strip lengthwise into approximately two halves and connects its north to its south, they were immediately met with an intense fire response from the resistance,
The spokesman for the HAMAS Ministry of the Interior in the Gaza Strip , Iyad Al-Bozm, said in statements to Al-Jazeera that the Israeli occupation forces are seeking to separate the north of the Strip from its south. As the ground incursion attempts accelerated, Al-Bazm explained that Israeli occupation vehicles are present on Salah al-Din Street and are trying to reach Al-Rashid Street.
Salah al-Din Street is located on the eastern outskirts of the Gaza Strip and is a main road extending from the north of the Strip to its south. As for Al-Rashid Street, it is the main road west of the Strip and is located on the Mediterranean coast. In another context, the Gaza Interior Ministry spokesman explained that the occupation forces entered the Strip from the northwestern side and that their vehicles are located in the Karama area. Al-Bazm stated that the occupation forces "annihilated entire residential areas in the northwestern Gaza Strip" before they were able to advance through that axis.
For its part, the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), said that its fighters are waging violent battles in the axes south of Gaza City and the Tawam and Karama areas northwest of Gaza. The Brigades announced the destruction of a number of Israeli vehicles penetrating the areas north and south of Gaza City.
The occupation army seeks to penetrate the Gaza Strip through agricultural and open areas described as soft perimeters of the Strip, after carrying out unprecedented bombing operations from land, sea and air. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told Al Jazeera that the occupation began moving on the ground in a number of axes, and that it had practically launched a ground attack that it did not want to announce for its own considerations. He added that the occupation is advancing through weak and bombed axes and in agricultural areas, and "there is no military achievement for it."
Bystanders
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Israel of “committing crimes against humanity in Gaza” – with the support of the United States and Europe. Erdogan, who has taken an increasingly strident line against Israel since the beginning of its attacks on Gaza, said that Israel “must be stopped”, in comments made after a cabinet meeting. “Our discussions are ongoing to ensure the perpetrators of war crimes in Gaza are held accountable,” the president added, before calling for a ceasefire “to prevent a massacre”, followed by a “path to lasting peace”.
The European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, has “expressed great concern over attacks by Israeli settlers against Palestinians”, which he firmly condemned. Following a series of contacts with the top diplomats of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, Borrell again called for a humanitarian pause in the war. Attacks by settlers in the occupied West Bank have surged since October 7. The United Nations has said at least 115 Palestinians have been killed in violence in the occupied West Bank since then.
Aicha Elbasri, from the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, says the green light from the international community for Israel’s “crimes” means the carnage will only continue. “What we are seeing today is one of the darkest hours of our times. We’re watching genocide live – the crime of crimes,” the former United Nations official told Al Jazeera.
Asked why Israel continues to commit massacres of civilians in Gaza, Elbasri replied, “Israel doesn’t have to justify – Israel is above the law. Israel is above the moral compass. It’s been permitted to carry out the worst crimes against humanity without any sense of accountability to anyone. “As long as Washington is on its side, as long as the Europeans are giving it the licence to kill, as long as Arabs also aren’t taking any steps that could make Israel think again about its plan – I don’t think we’ll be seeing anything else.”
Axis of Resistance
Despite claims by a number of Accounts today on Twitter and Telegram, neither the Republic of Yemen nor the Houthis have “Declared War on Israel” this isn’t too far fetched for the Houthis considering the current Situation and the Missile Attack today, but so far it hasn’t happened. Brigadier General Yahya Saree: "Our armed forces launched a barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles and numerous drones on various Israeli positions in the occupied territories. The Yemeni armed forces assures that this operation is the third of its kindin solidarity with our brothers in Palestine and we asssure the continuation of such operations using missiles and drones until the Israeli agggression stops."
Until the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Hamas, there had been no direct military confrontation between the two. The Houthis military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said that an attack on southern Israel was the third such attack the pro-Iranian Yemeni group – which controls the capital Sanaa – had conducted since the war began. The lack of any attacks before the current conflict can partly be explained by the sheer distance between Yemen, on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, and Israel, to its north. But the new development also reflects the growing potential for a regional war between Israel and pro-Iranian groups across the region.
“There are many actors in the region who operate as Iran proxies, such as the Houthis, who are trying to challenge us and distract us from the war in Gaza. We remain focused,” said Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari after the latest attack. As Israel presses further into Gaza in its attempts to destroy Hamas, the Palestinian death toll – primarily civilian – grows rapidly, raising pressure on Iran and its supporters in the region to act. Unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Houthis are unlikely to be a major part of any regional conflagration. But their ability to attack Israel from such a distance, and potentially US interests closer to them, shows the pro-Iranian camp’s power in the region.
Allied for Democracy
Jacob “Jack” Lew will become the new ambassador, filling a post that has been empty since July, when former ambassador Tom Nides left the post. Lew, a former secretary of the US Department of the Treasury under President Barack Obama, was nominated for the role by President Joe Biden in September. Republicans had pushed against Lew’s appointment, criticising him for his role in negotiating the Iran nuclear agreement in 2015. However, two Republicans in the Senate voted with all the present Democrats to approve Lew’s appointment.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters that Washington is “making very good progress” on the prospect of opening the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. “I’m not in the position to make any announcements as I stand here right now,” Miller told reporters. “But I would say that we would welcome any agreement that would permit the safe exit of American citizens, families, other foreign nationals. It’s our understanding that should we get there. “It’s not a process that would occur instantly. People would move out over several days.”
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