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2026 Election

The 2026 midterm elections will significantly impact the 2028 presidential election by shifting the political landscape, influencing the legislative agenda, and testing key campaign strategies. The outcome will serve as a referendum on the current administration and a bellwether for what issues and demographics could be decisive in the next presidential race.

The party that controls the White House nearly always loses seats in the midterms. If the Republican Party loses control of either the House or the Senate, it would dramatically alter the political dynamics for the next two years and directly affect the 2028 election.

• A check on the president: If Democrats gain a congressional majority, they can block the president's legislative agenda and initiate oversight hearings that would put the administration on the defensive.
• Defining the opposition: A Democratic-controlled Congress would use its power to promote its own agenda, forcing the president into potential vetoes and helping to rebuild its platform for 2028.
• The legislative agenda: Historically, a president's legislative prospects are often limited after midterm losses, creating a "two-year presidency" in which major policy goals must be passed quickly.

The results of the midterms will signal which issues resonate most with voters, influencing what candidates prioritize for 2028.

• Voter mood: The midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president. Voters' perceptions of issues like the economy will directly affect how they vote in 2026 and influence the national mood heading into 2028.
• Democratic strategy: The Democratic Party's ability to mobilize its base of "super voters" in the midterms, who tend to be more highly educated, could offer a blueprint for 2028, though some analysts warn against treating midterms as a direct precursor.
• GOP strategy: Historically, Republicans have gained ground by positioning themselves as outsiders against a distrusted government. Depending on the 2026 results, they could continue this strategy or be forced to adjust.

Midterm results could either boost or harm the national standing of potential presidential candidates for 2028.

• Measuring success: For potential Democratic candidates like governors or members of Congress, their performance in 2026 will be used to demonstrate their ability to build a broad electoral coalition.
• Primary challenges: Potential presidential candidates from either party may use the 2026 elections to build momentum, influence primary outcomes, and shape the narrative for their campaigns.
• Swing demographics: The performance of key demographics, like Latinos who have trended more Republican in recent elections, will offer crucial insights for 2028.

Ongoing efforts to influence election administration and voting laws will continue through the 2026 cycle, potentially affecting the electorate in 2028.

• State-level changes: Changes to voting laws in key states will affect the voter experience and registration in 2026 and subsequent elections. Legal challenges: Court rulings on issues like mail-in ballots and redistricting could impact how elections are conducted and certified, influencing outcomes in 2028.
• Census and redistricting: The effects of a potentially politicized census could lead to shifts in congressional power that extend through the 2028 election cycle.

A September 2025 AP-NORC poll asked Republicans if they see the country as moving in the right direction. Only half did, down from 70 percent in June 2025. The poll was taken in the days following the killing of right-wing activist Charlie Kirk. Among Republicans younger than 45, 61 percent say it’s going the wrong way, a spike of 30 percentage points since June. About three-quarters of Republican women say the country is going in the wrong direction, up from 27 percent in June. Across political parties, 40 percent of adults approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, while 60 percent disapprove.