Crime & COVID-19
Research has established a strong causal link between COVID-19 lockdown policies and increased drug overdose deaths in the United States. A comprehensive study using difference-in-differences methodology found that COVID-19 lockdowns increased drug overdose deaths by 12% to 21%, with the mechanism primarily operating through isolation and loneliness induced by the lockdown mandates Links between COVID-19 lockdowns and drug overdose deaths, evidence from panel data - ScienceDirect. Another study examining county-level data from 2019-2020 found that policies limiting in-person activities significantly increased overdose rates, with a 15% average monthly increase for men and a 14% increase for women for each unit increase in activity restrictions .
The pandemic period witnessed an unprecedented surge in overdose mortality. In Milwaukee County, researchers found a 45% increase in monthly opioid overdose deaths after the March 2020 lockdown, with the worst effects concentrated in poor urban neighborhoods affecting Black and Hispanic communities . National data showed that excess mortality due to drug overdose significantly increased during the pandemic, with age-standardized mortality rates rising from 8.9% annually pre-pandemic (2012-2019) to 12.9% during the pandemic period (2019-2022) . Particularly alarming was the impact on adolescents, where fentanyl was identified in 77.1% of overdose deaths in 2021, with this age group experiencing a 21.6% annual percentage change during the pandemic .
Multiple mechanisms explain this causal relationship. The pandemic created conditions including social isolation, stress, people using drugs alone, increased rates of drug use, and decreased access to substance use treatment, harm reduction services, and emergency services . However, economic support policies implemented by states significantly decreased overdose rates, though these supports were insufficient to fully mitigate the adverse relationship between activity limitations and drug overdoses. The drug supply itself also became more dangerous during this period, with synthetic opioids like fentanyl playing an increasingly dominant role in overdose deaths.
An important methodological challenge in establishing causation is the lack of clear control groups, as the pandemic onset was essentially national at the same point in time (March 2020), with lockdowns and restrictions adopted in most states at similar times, making classic difference-in-differences designs challenging. Despite this limitation, the consistency of findings across multiple studies using different methodologies supports a causal interpretation of the relationship between lockdowns and increased overdose deaths. The relationship between COVID-19 lockdowns and crime is more complex and varied by crime type. A global analysis of 27 cities across 23 countries found that stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, with more stringent restrictions over movement in public space predicting larger declines in crime. Cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types including robbery, burglary, and vehicle theft, but not others such as assault, theft, and homicide.
Research points to a "mobility theory of crime" to explain these patterns. A UK study found that by one week after lockdown, all recorded crime had declined 41%, with shoplifting down 62%, theft down 52%, domestic abuse down 45%, theft from vehicle down 43%, assault down 36%, and both burglary dwelling and burglary non-dwelling down 25% Crime and coronavirus: social distancing, lockdown, and the mobility elasticity of crime - PMC. The study calculated mobility elasticity of crime for different types, finding shoplifting and other theft responsive to reduced retail sector mobility, burglary dwelling elastic to increases in residential area mobility, and assault responsive to reduced workplace mobility.
In the United States, crime rates plummeted in many cities during initial lockdowns, with a USA Today report in April 2020 showing decreased criminal incidents in nineteen out of twenty police agencies examined since March 15, though domestic violence increased Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime - Wikipedia. Research in a Chinese city found an overall decline in violent crime during lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown, confirming a U-shaped pattern with violent crime density highest during the pre-lockdown period, lowest during lockdown, and the two post-lockdown periods in the middle.
However, homicide presented a notable exception to the general crime decline. Analysis of 28 large US cities from January 2018 to December 2020 found that homicide rates were higher throughout 2020, including during early 2020 prior to March lockdowns . By the end of 2020, Chicago reported more than 750 murders (a jump of more than 50% compared with 2019), Los Angeles saw a 30% increase with 322 homicides, and New York City had 437 homicides by December 20, nearly 40% more than the previous year. In 2020, the average US city experienced a surge in its homicide rate of almost 30%—the fastest spike ever recorded in the country.
The persistence of violent crime despite reduced mobility for other offenses suggests different causal mechanisms. Research found that the crime drop during lockdowns was driven by decreases in minor offenses typically committed in peer groups, while serious crimes generally not committed with co-offenders, namely homicide and intimate partner violence, either remained constant or increased. This indicates that lockdowns affected opportunity structures differently for various crime types, with property crimes heavily dependent on public mobility while interpersonal violence was less responsive to these restrictions.
The relationships between lockdowns, drug deaths, and crime are not entirely independent but rather represent interconnected responses to the pandemic and its policy interventions. The homicide spike was likely exacerbated by pandemic-related stresses, lack of government and non-profit intervention programming, and historic gun sales that accompanied the pandemic's onset. The concentration of both violence and drug deaths in economically disadvantaged communities suggests shared underlying vulnerabilities that were amplified by the pandemic.
Importantly, the jump in lethal violence was a uniquely American phenomenon, as homicides did not rise in Western Europe in 2020, nor did they increase in Canada and Mexico. This American exceptionalism points to structural factors—particularly gun availability and pre-existing social inequalities—that interacted with pandemic conditions to produce the observed outcomes. The evidence suggests that while lockdowns had direct causal effects on both drug deaths and certain crime types, the magnitude and nature of these effects were mediated by contextual factors including existing social infrastructure, policy responses, and cultural characteristics specific to different regions and nations.
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