Ukraine - Unmanned Air Vehicles - China
China is not a key supplier of drones to Ukraine - in fact, the opposite is true. As of 2025, China has stopped selling drones to Ukraine and other European countries while continuing to supply Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated this directly in May 2025, saying "Chinese Mavic is open for Russians but is closed for Ukrainians." This represents a dramatic shift from earlier in the war when both sides were using Chinese drones.
Since 2017, DJI Mavic drones had been vital for Ukrainian units, prized for compact design, quiet operation, and advanced cameras. The Mavic 2 Pro replaced the Mavic Pro Platinum, becoming a frontline staple, launching in under a minute to relay target coordinates. By 2023, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal noted Ukraine was procuring “up to 60% of the world’s Mavic production,” supporting reconnaissance, artillery adjustments, and evacuations.
Chinese drone manufacturers first reduced supplies of small commercial drones and their components to Ukraine due to new rules on the export of these products that have entered into China, The New York Times reported 30 September 2023. As the publication points out, “Chinese suppliers have reduced their sales since new rules on the export of drone components came into force on September 1.” It is noted that China produces about 90% of civilian drones in the world and it is difficult to replace Chinese manufacturers.
With the new rules coming into force, Chinese manufacturers are "required to use a complex system of middlemen," so "some Ukrainians have been forced to beg, borrow and smuggle what they need to replace gadgets shot down in the air." The newspaper also pointed out that, according to estimates by the Royal United Kingdom Institute for Defense and Security Studies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were losing about 10 thousand drones per month. As the publication notes, many fear that the new supply rules will worsen the problems of the Ukrainian supply chain before the winter.
In September 2024, China imposed export restrictions on drones and drone components to both Ukraine and Russia, including flight controllers, carbon frames, motors, radio modules, and navigation cameras. However, the restrictions have been applied asymmetrically. While Ukraine faces genuine supply cutoffs, Russia continues to receive critical components. Ukrainian intelligence reports that China supplies 80% of the critical electronics used in Russian drones. Even more concerning, there are production lines on Russian territory where Chinese representatives are present, and Chinese officers have toured Russia's frontline to study the war firsthand.
The impact on Ukraine has been severe because the country was heavily dependent on Chinese drone technology. Mavic drones comprise 90% of Ukraine's reconnaissance operations, making these restrictions particularly devastating. Ukraine loses an estimated 10,000 drones per month in combat, creating constant demand that's now difficult to meet.
The problem goes beyond just complete drones. Only 5% of Ukrainian defense firms report that they don't use Chinese components in their systems. This means the vast majority of drones that fill Ukrainian skies are either made in China or contain key components made in China. Even Ukraine's so-called "domestically produced" drones are more accurately described as "made in China, assembled in Ukraine." China controls close to 90% of the global commercial drone market and manufactures most of the key hardware used to build them, giving Beijing enormous leverage over the entire industry worldwide.
China's selective restrictions on key drone components limit Ukraine's drone production capacity while strengthening Russia's. This directly weakens Ukraine's position on the battlefield and in any potential negotiations. The asymmetric access to drone technology gives Russia a significant tactical advantage in a war where drones have become absolutely central to military operations.
Drones had transformed the entire architecture of the battlefield in Ukraine. They're used for reconnaissance, targeting, and precision strikes. Ukrainian forces use first-person view drones for real-time intelligence on Russian positions and deploy cost-effective "kamikaze" drones to target tanks, artillery, transport vehicles, and bunkers. This capability has become central to Ukraine's survival on the battlefield, so removing or limiting it provides Russia with substantial leverage.
Ukraine recognized the crisis and attempted to achieve self-reliance. Bylate 2025 the country was producing 4 million drones annually, with 1.5 million delivered to troops. Ukrainian companies started mass-producing various electronics, controllers, cameras, and motors domestically. At least ten Mavic alternatives emerged, though many details remain confidential for security reasons.
The government launched initiatives like the Drone Line project to create defensive zones along the front line and has established platforms to streamline procurement and provide tax exemptions for domestic manufacturers. Ukraine claims it can produce 300 to 500 drones every 24 hours, though it faces significant financial hurdles in scaling this production further.
Despite these efforts, Ukraine still depended on China for certain critical components that were difficult to manufacture domestically, such as specialized magnets, optical fiber, and advanced machining equipment. By mid-2025 some Ukrainian industry leaders predicted independence from China, but complete independence remained challenging given China's dominance of global supply chains. "Yaroslav Honchar of Aerorozvidka believed the crisis, though disruptive, is not critical, predicting independence from China within one or two more quarters.
This situation reflects China's so-called "no-limits" partnership with Russia while Beijing officially maintains that it provides weapons to neither side and strictly controls dual-use items. The reality on the ground tells a different story - China's actions tilted the technological balance in Russia's favor.
The drone supply issue also affects Western militaries. American drone producers like Skydio have felt the impact of new Chinese trade restrictions on drone components. One Pentagon official described China's control over drone supply chains as "a national security issue, not just for the United States, but for the global West," noting that China could shut down the drone industry globally for a year if it chose to do so.
This demonstrates China's substantial influence over the conflict's dynamics without needing to directly provide finished weapons to Russia. By controlling access to components and technology, China can shape the battlefield balance while maintaining plausible deniability about its role in the war.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
