Kakhovkaya Dam - Breach 06 June 2023
The destruction 06 June 2023 of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River that separated Russian and Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine sent a torrent of water gushing through the breached facility, creating a new humanitarian disaster at the heart of the war zone. A major catastrophe was unleashed along the southern banks of the Dnepr River, with thousands of residents displaced after the Kakhovka hydroplant’s dam was destroyed and water gushed inland, flooding local settlements, forests, and farms. The World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development, a Ukrainian nongovernmental organisation, estimated that nearly 100 villages and towns would be flooded. It also reckoned that the water level would start dropping only after 5-7 days.
The Norwegian Institute of Seismic Observations NORSAR recorded signals in the area of the Kakhovskaya HPP, which indicate that an explosion occurred at the time of the destruction of the dam. NORSAR analysed seismic signals from regional stations in connection with the collapse of the dam in Ukraine. "Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and location (coordinates: 46.7776, 33.37) coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there was an explosion. ... Based on new analysis, we have also observed weak signals from an earlier seismic event from approximately 02:35 (local time in Ukraine) originating from the direction of the Kakhovka Dam. "
The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant is located in the city of Nova Kakhovka, on the left bank of the mighty Dnipro River, in a part of Ukraine’s Kherson region that remains under Russian occupation. It was captured by Russian forces in the early stages of the invasion, along with the nearby Zaporizhzhia plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility.
The destruction of the dam was carried out by blowing up a huge number of explosives placed by Russians in advance. The shelling by Ukrainian MLRS, which Russian propaganda uses to explain the destruction of the dam, is incapable of inflicting such damage. Russians had a clear motive to blow up the dam — to make the lower reaches of the Dnipro an impassable obstacle to the Ukrainian counteroffensive. As noted above, they are repeatedly noticed both threatening and causing damage to the HPP.
The US government had intelligence confirming Russia’s responsibility for the HPP explosion and plans to declassify this information. This was reported by the American publication NBC News on 06 June 2023, citing two American officials and one Western official. One of the speakers explained that by blowing up the dam, Russians intend to make it more difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out offensive operations, in particular the crossing of the Dnipro, and cause a difficult humanitarian problem for Ukraine.
Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko said Moscow had most to gain and was thus also the most plausible culprit for the dam's destruction, noting on Twitter that, "by causing floods downstream of Nova Kakhovka, the Russians would complicate Ukraine's efforts to cross, winning time, which would allow them to focus on other sections of the front."
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu charged that Ukraine destroyed the dam to prevent potential Russian attacks in the Kherson region and divert attention from the pruported failure of its long-awaited counteroffensive. Ukraine, meanwhile, stated Russia blew up the dam to hinder its planned assault, even though observers note that crossing the broad Dnipro would have been extremely challenging even before the flooding.
By June 2023 the dam had been occupied by Russian forces for many months, and Ukrainian forces had no access to it. The widespred destruction of such a massive facility could not have been accomplished by munitions available to Ukraine, but could only have been accomplished using substantial quantities of explosives emplaced within and around the dam structure. The Russians first lowered the water level in the dam in late 2022, and then raised it to record high levels recently. Some speculated that the Low level was to emplace underwater charges at the dam foundations, and then high level for maximum devastating effect when the dm was breached.
This dam, which was built in 1956 as part as the — as part of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, sits astride Ukraine’s Dnieper River. The reservoir holds about as much water as the Great Salt Lake in Utah. That water helps supply southern Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula, as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. A decrease in the water level of the Kakhovsky Reservoir will disrupt the functioning of the cooling infrastructure of the Zaporizhia NPP reactors, which may lead to a nuclear disaster. While there is shoaling and new sandbars in the area of the NPP as a consequence of Kakhovka Reservoir lower water level, the Zaporizhzhya NPP has a "closed" cooling system and not immediately at risk from denied access to reservoir water.
Russian hydrogeologist and oppositionist Yuri Medovar predicted 21 October 2022 the consequences of undermining the Kakhovskaya HPP in the Russian Federation. He was convinced that this will cause catastrophic consequences, like after a tsunami, reports " Obzrevatel ". According to him, under such a scenario, many settlements near the dam, as well as the city of Kherson, will be flooded. "I think it's scarier than tactical nuclear weapons, I can't even imagine such a thing," said the scientist. He estimated the volume of water in the Kakhov reservoir and stated that its release would lead to catastrophic consequences. He called such a probable scenario a very serious problem, because everything that is located below the dam will wash away and flood Kherson as well. In addition, as a result of such a terrorist attack, Crimea will also suffer, because the North Crimean Canal supplied water precisely from the Kakhovsky Reservoir.
Russian troops captured Nova Kakhovka and the Kakhovka HPP at the end of February 2022. They took the personnel hostage and almost immediately interfered with the technical work of the facility: they blew up the structures of the North Crimean Canal to supply water to the temporarily occupied Crimea.
After the seizure of the HPP, the occupiers began to place command posts on them, in particular, the control point of the Southern Military District of Russia was deployed there. The invaders did not make efforts to maintain the energy facilities in proper condition. They did not give the opportunity to repair two hydraulic units that were out of order.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the invaders mined the Kakhovka HPP back in April 2022. The next month, they began to discharge water from the reservoir, which even led to the flooding of the embankment in a neighbouring village.
During the deoccupation of the right bank of the Kherson region, in August 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine put a bridge near the HPP out of order with high-precision strikes, without damaging the dam and other facilities of the HPP. On September 5, the occupiers turned off the Kakhovka HPP, as a result of which parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts were left without electricity.
In autumn 2022, information appeared about Russia’s intentions to blow up the dam of the Kakhovka HPP to prevent the summer-autumn campaign of the Defence Forces in the south of Ukraine. At that time, the invaders additionally mined the locks and supports of the Kakhovka HPP. At that time, the Ukrainian authorities drew the maximum attention of the world community to this threat and its consequences.
The Russian general appointed to command the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, Serhiy Surovikin, said on 18 October 2022 that Kyiv allegedly wants to attack the Kakhovskaya HPP dam. Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Russian side may attack the Kakhovskaya HPP , blame it on Kyiv and use the provoked flood to cover the retreat of its forces from the Kherson region.
On 20 October 2022 President Volodymyr Zelensky announced "the aggregates and dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP were mined by Russian terrorists." He stated : "Attacks by Russian cruise missiles and Iranian strike drones have destroyed more than a third of our energy infrastructure. Russia is also provoking a new wave of migration of Ukrainians to EU countries. Russian terror against our energy facilities is aimed at creating as many problems as possible with electricity and heat for Ukraine this fall and winter and for as many Ukrainians as possible to go to European countries. There is a new escalation of Russian terror. And this requires the entire European community to take new steps in response - fast and in solidarity. Steps that will protect both Ukrainians and all Europeans. Terror must lose. Ukraine and Europe must win."
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal announced at the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on 21 October 2022 that Russian troops mined the Kakhovskaya HPP in the Kherson region , which they threaten to blow up in case of withdrawal from the region. According to him, the Russians have started preparations for another terrorist attack directed against the Ukrainian people. Against the background of these alarming news, the Ukrainian side demands that an international mission of observers be sent to the object.
Shmyhal also emphasized that the undermining of the Kakhovskaya HPP will cause thousands of victims among the civilian population, and dozens of settlements will be flooded. "Therefore, we are appealing to the UN, the EU and other organizations to organize an international monitoring mission at the Kakhovskaya HPP. International experts should arrive at the station immediately, along with Ukrainian personnel," Shmyhal added.
Ministry of Defence Ukraine announced 21 October 2022 "... the occupiers installed remote-controlled explosive devices in the drainage and sewage systems along the access roads to the Antoniv bridge. It is not excluded that their detonation can be carried out at the moment of accumulation of the civilian population there, which will try to move to the left bank of the Dnieper. The enemy once again resorts to scorched earth tactics, and in this case adheres to the saying "at least the flood will come after us." Such intentions indicate that the occupiers have decided to leave the right bank of the Dnieper, but at the same time inflict maximum damage on Ukraine and hinder further progress towards Crimea."
The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reported on the presence of facts and evidence of the movement of explosives and the use of appropriate equipment for a controlled remote explosion by Russians. According to preliminary information, servicemen of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces may be involved in the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP (military unit 74814, point of permanent deployment — Budyonovsk, Stavropol Krai).
One major theory for the anticipated counteroffensive was that Ukrainian troops would try to cross the Dnipro River where it narrows in the Kherson region before making a fast advance south east towards Crimea. In doing so, Ukraine could cut Russian supply lines running from the peninsula to troops stationed in the Zaporizhzhia and Donbas regions. The Kherson region has “always lacked the proper infrastructure and is quite swampy”, added Huseyn Aliyev, Lecturer in Central and East European Studies at University of Glasgow. “Moving anything larger than Humvees would always have been a huge challenge." Russian defence troops positioned near Kherson can now be reassigned to other areas considered at higher risk of attack – starting with the eastern city of Donetsk.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was direct in his assessment of the motives behind the Kakhovka dam breach. “Considering all the elements, we have to naturally assume that it was a Russian attack to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive aiming to liberate Ukrainian territory,” the German leader said.
The destruction of the huge Kakhovka dam in a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine likely came from an explosion set off by Russia, The New York Times reported 18 June 2023, citing engineers and explosives experts. In an article titled "An Inside Job," the newspaper said it had found evidence an explosive charge was "set deep in the structure" of the concrete barrier, which destroyed the dam on June 6. "The evidence clearly suggests the dam was crippled by an explosion set off by the side that controls it: Russia," the Times said.
The paper said as the structure was built during Soviet times, Moscow had every page of the engineering drawings and knew where the structure's Achilles heel was. One engineer told the paper that as it was built during the Cold War, it would have been designed to withstand almost any kind of external attack. The experts said the failure of the dam's concrete foundation was very unlikely to occur on its own. However, the engineers said only a full examination of the dam will establish the sequence of events leading to the destruction.
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