Thailand - Elections - 2023
The 2023 election pitted progressive opposition parties promising a return to democracy, and others allied with royalist generals keen to preserve the status quo after nine years of military-backed rule. The progressive party did much better than expected, with an early lead in the party-list seats and coming in at a strong second in the constituency seats. Pheu Thai and MFP [Move Forward Party] need to win 376 seats to establish a government. This is because the prime minister is selected by a simple majority of a joint vote of the 500-member lower house and the Senate, whose 250 members were not elected but appointed during military rule.
Thailand is a constitutional monarchy, with King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun (Rama X) as head of state. In 2019 the country held the first national election after five years of rule by a junta-led National Council for Peace and Order. The National Council-backed Phalang Pracharath Party and 18 supporting parties won a majority in the lower house, and they retained as prime minister National Council leader Prayut Chan-o-Cha, the leader of the 2014 coup and a retired army general. The election was generally peaceful with few reported irregularities, although observers noted that a restrictive legal framework and selective enforcement of campaign regulations by the Election Commission favored Phalang Pracharath-aligned parties.
Significant human rights issues included credible reports of: torture and cases of cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by government officials; arbitrary arrest and detention by government authorities; political prisoners; political interference in the judiciary; arbitrary and unlawful interference with privacy; serious restrictions on free expression and media, including arrests and prosecutions of those criticizing the government, censorship, and criminal libel laws; serious restrictions on internet freedom; interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of association.
The lese majeste prohibition makes it a crime, punishable by minimum of three years’ and a maximum of 15 years’ imprisonment for each offense, to criticize, insult, or threaten the king, queen, royal heir apparent, or regent. The law also allows citizens to file lese majeste complaints against one other. As of August 2021 lese majeste charges were filed against 102 individuals. Those so charged often also faced other charges, including for sedition and violating the COVID-19 emergency decree.
The government owned all spectrum used in media broadcast and leased it to private media operators, allowing the government to exert indirect influence on the media landscape. Media firms sometimes practiced self-censorship. Laws allow the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission to suspend or revoke the licenses of radio or television operators broadcasting content deemed false, defamatory to the monarchy, harmful to national security, or unnecessarily critical of the government.
There were few reports of election irregularities during the 2019 national elections, although there were frequent reports of vote buying by both government and opposition parties. The NGO Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) – the only global organization allowed by the government to observe the election – found the election “partly free, not fair.” ANFREL noted many positive aspects of the election primarily related to election-day activities, including high voter turnout, free access to the polls, and peaceful conditions during the campaign and on election day. ANFREL also found, however, that a restrictive and biased legal framework and lack of transparency by the Election Commission meant authorities “failed to establish the healthy political climate that lies at the heart of free and fair electoral process.”
The Pheu Thai Party has a negative history with the military. In September 2006, Thaksin, as prime minister, was to deliver a speech to the U.N. General Assembly when a military coup overthrew his elected government. The junta cited corruption and questions regarding his loyalty to the monarchy to oust him. Eight years later, his sister, Yingluck, faced the same fate when she was ousted as PM in a coup spearheaded by Prayuth, then the army chief of staff. Despite being in self-imposed exile in Dubai, Thaksin is seen as pulling the strings of the pro-democracy parties in his country and has shown a desire to return home.
The Thai constitution was changed before the 2019 election to allow the Senate, whose members are finishing their terms this year, to join lower house lawmakers in voting for the prime minister. This is spurring complaints that the upcoming 2023 nationwide polls could be skewed to favor the ruling party even if it lost the popular vote. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha's grip on power, however, has loosened. His ruling bloc has also become fractured through a schism among Thailand’s former military rulers that potentially could pit him against his deputy prime minister in choosing the next prime minister.
More than 50 million Thais eligible to vote in May are witnessing the campaigns of candidates representing Pheu Thai and other red-shirted pro-democracy parties, while the royalist bloc, led by the ruling Palang Pracharath Party, wear yellow. New to the political scene is the blue ideologist bloc led by Prayuth who appears to be slipping in popularity, according to opinion polls. Prayuth seized power in 2014 after leading a military coup to overthrow the government of Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s younger sister. An analyst warned that the military could play spoiler this year.
The election commission has determined that 400 of the 500-member parliament will be elected in district-wide races while the remaining 100 will be selected from party-list candidates based on the percentages of total votes received. The ballots will be separated into two, one for individual candidates and another for the party – a move that, observers predict, could favor larger political parties. A poll by the NIDA (National Institute of Development Administration) in late 2022 showed Paetongtarn favored by 34% of 2,000 respondents who said they liked her party and wanted opportunities for a new generation of politicians.
The Pheu Thai Party and the Move Forward Party are presenting themselves as models for younger generations of Thais who are seeking to reform the monarchy. The two parties are supported by the Prachachart Party, which is led by Wan Muhamad Noor Matha and popular among the Muslim-dominant Malay-speaking Deep South region. Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party, polled third with support from 13.25% of voters, trailing only Paetongtarn and Prayuth. Campaigning under the flag of the new United Thai Nation Party, Prayuth, 68, drew support of 14.05% of voters who praised him for his frankness, honesty and ability to keep internal peace.
After Prayuth led the coup in 2014, the junta chief took on the title of prime minister and became the duly elected PM after the March 2019 general election, the nation’s first post-coup polls. He would be forced to leave office by April 5, 2025, if reelected. The military-backed constitution allows the prime minister to serve a maximum of eight years. In September, the Constitutional Court ruled that the clock against Prayuth started counting down with the new constitution’s adoption in 2017.
Prayuth’s deputy prime minister, Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, who is the candidate for the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPP), did not register in the NIDA polling.Prayuth, Prawit and Anupong Paochinda, the members of the “3P,” saw themselves as brothers-in-arms during their military careers that led to a coup and control of the government.
Anutin Charnvirakul, another deputy prime minister who is the minister of public health, leads the Bhumjaithai Party, which is likely to remain with the ruling coalition, according to political observers. He received only 5% support in the NIDA poll, finishing seventh. Anutin is adamant that his party opposes the abolition of Lèse-Majesté, the controversial royal defamation law, while the Democrat Party, another key coalition member, has yet to announce its stance on the issue. Lèse-Majesté carries a prison term of up to 15 years and has been contentiously enforced after Prayuth threatened in November 2020 to exercise “all pertaining laws” to stop youth-led protests, which sometimes turned violent.
A different survey by the Super Poll Research Office in early January showed that Bhumjaithai finished second among parties at 21.9%, closely trailing Pheu Thai’s 23.4%. PPP drew 8% support.
Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter is the most popular candidate for prime minister, opinion surveys show ahead of Thailand’s general election on May 7, but electoral rules put in place to help a coup-leader remain in power may prevent an opposition victory. Thaksin’s pro-democracy Pheu Thai Party, with allies including the Move Forward Party, could win more than half of the 500 seats in Parliament’s lower house to form a new government, February 2023 polls showed. But the opposition coalition likely would need support from members of the 250-seat Senate, who were hand-picked by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s administration, to reach the 376-vote threshold to name the government leader.
Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra, the 36-year-old and pregnant daughter of Thaksin, an exiled former prime minister who was deposed in a military coup nearly 17 years ago, is spearheading the Pheu Thai Party’s campaign in an effort to form a coalition government with other pro-democracy parties. “[Ung] Ing is ready,” Paetongtarn told supporters during a campaign in northeastern Udon Thani province in January, referring to herself by her nickname. “We know why we want to win by a landslide – to materialize the policies we promised to people in every province to make their lives better,” she said.
Despite her efforts to lead the campaign, Pheu Thai has not officially named its candidate. Party leader Cholnan Srikaew and Srettha Thavisin, a property tycoon, appear to be alternative candidates. “The intensity of military influence on politics will even increase should the parties from the pro-democracy bloc win the most seats and attempt to form a new government,” Piyapong Pimpalak, of the Social Research Institute at Chiang Mai University, told BenarNews. “Don’t underestimate the chance of another military coup,” he said, adding that some of the parties include soldier royalists. “I believe there will certainly be changes in politics, but I don’t think the military’s power would easily subside.”
Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha on 17 March 2023 ordered dissolution of the parliament ahead of the all-important general election as the military leader seeks to extend his second term spanning eight years. The PM issued a decree in this regard and it will be next sent to Thailand’s monarch for approval. It would take effect once it is published in the Royal Gazette, following which the election must be held in 45 to 60 days.
The Election Commission had initially suggested that the polling will take place on May 7, but final confirmation is yet to be made. “I have prepared (the decree), we have to wait. We have to wait for the announcement in the Royal Gazette,” Prayuth told reporters in the northern city of Chiang Mai.
This high-stakes election is significant for Prayuth’s political career who—after emerging as coup leader in 2014 and then being elected as civilian head—will find it difficult to extend his term as the constitutional will allow only two more years to be prime minister. Prayuth had jumped the shift to the conservative United Thai Nation party after his previous party, the military-backed Palang Pracharath Party, decided to pick another prime minister candidate.
The stakes are high for Prayuth as he was pitted against Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. The 36-year-old woman has dominated the opinion polls for months, emerging to be the top choice for Thailand’s next prime minister. Speaking at an event to introduce Pheu Thai’s candidates, she said that she was confident of winning the election by a landslide.
Pheu Thai party’s previous administration has won every election in the past two decades, but their rule was cut short three times by judicial rulings or military takeovers. “I have a strong hope that we can form a government for sure, that’s why we go ourselves to campaign about a landslide,” Paetongtarn said.
Thailand's general election campaign officially started 03 April 2023, as candidates began registration for the May 14 election. It could lead to a change of government. The country's 52 million eligible voters will cast their ballots for 500 Lower House seats, which are up for grabs. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who led the 2014 military coup, has joined a new party launched by his supporters after his popularity waned in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party.
The Pheu Thai Party, the largest opposition group, is close to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. His second daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is a key member of the party. The latest opinion polls showed the opposition party was well ahead of its rivals. Paetongtarn told reporters that she will do her utmost to win the support of voters. She added that her party is aiming for a landslide victory.
Thailand’s reformist opposition has won the most seats and the largest share of the popular vote in a general election after voters resoundingly rejected the military-backed parties that have ruled the Southeast Asian country for nearly a decade. With nearly all votes counted on Monday, the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai Party were projected to win about 286 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.
Uncertainty remained about whether they would be able to form the next government due to skewed parliamentary rules that allow 250 members of a military-appointed Senate to vote on the prime minister. That meant MFP and Pheu Thai will need the support of smaller parties to establish a new administration.
The biggest winner of the vote was MFP, a progressive youth-led party that contested the general elections for the first time on a bold platform of reforming the monarchy and reducing the power of the military by rewriting the country’s constitution and ending conscription. With 99 percent of votes counted, the MFP looked set to take the biggest share of the lower house with a total of 147 seats, preliminary results published on the election commission website showed. The figure includes 112 from the 400 seats that are directly elected and 35 from the 100 seats allocated to parties on a proportional basis.
The populist opposition Pheu Thai came in second with 141 seats. The two parties have now agreed to begin coalition talks. But even with their stunning majority, it remains unclear if the royalist-military elite — who have staged two coups in the past 20 years — will hand over power easily. Several roadblocks lie in Move Forward’s path to Bangkok’s Government House. Chief among them are parliamentary rules that allow a military-appointed Senate an outsized role in choosing the next prime minister. But the ambitions of Move Forward’s potential coalition partner, Pheu Thai, may also yet prove to be an obstacle.
Analysts foresee a long and drawn-out process that could end in deadlock and say they fear this may trigger new instability in a country that has seen multiple coups followed by waves of protests — potentially paving the way for the military to step in again. Appointed during military rule, the 250-member upper chamber is allowed to vote on the prime minister, and any candidate for the top job must secure 376 votes across the combined chambers. If they wish to overrule the Senate, that number must come from the lower chamber alone. At present, however, Move Forward looks set to win 310 votes at the most.
The biggest issue for the Senate is the party’s pledge to reform laws related to the monarchy — an institution revered in Thailand’s constitution. The plans include amending Thailand’s strict lese-majeste law, known as Article 112, which punishes insults to the monarchy with up to 15 years in jail. Move Forward has accused the current ruling coalition of using the law to stifle dissent, noting that at least 242 members of a huge youth-led protest movement that backed the party were currently facing charges.
In the event of a deadlock, Pheu Thai may take the lead in trying to form a government — without Move Forward. During the election campaign, the populist party, which along with its predecessors has won every election since 2001, said it would not touch Article 112. Many saw the stance as an attempt to reconcile with the royalist-military establishment after nearly two decades of being thwarted in its bid to govern the Southeast Asian country.
The party’s founder, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was toppled in 2006 in a military coup widely seen as backed by the palace, while the government of his sister, Yingluck, was also brought down by the army in 2014. Both of them now live in exile after being sentenced to prison over charges they claim are politically motivated.
Pheu Thai — currently led by Thaksin’s 36-year-old daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra — said it was accepted Move Forward’s invitation to “create a democratic alliance”. It added that it had “no plan to compete with Move Forward to form a new government”. But one option would be to form a coalition with other parties, including the Palang Pacharat,” led by former General Prawit Wongsuwan, said Napon. The Palang Pracharat Party won 40 seats in Sunday’s election, and their other partners could include the Bhumjaithai Party which won 71 seats, and Chart Thai Pattana Party which won 10 seats. All these parties would not come up to 376 anyways. But they might be able to get the Senate’s support, because General Prawit would likely be able to sway a number of senators because he played a role in appointing them in the first place.
Any attempt by Pheu Thai or the Senate to thwart an MFP-led government carried risks. Pheu Thai would endanger its “entire future in politics”, while any move by the Senate to challenge the electorate’s will would trigger mass protests, particularly by young people, he said.
The leader of Thailand's largest opposition force said 18 May 2023 was confident they can form a coalition government after emerging victorious in the general election. Pita Limjaroenrat, whose Move Forward Party won the largest share of votes, says they have agreed to create an alliance with seven other parties. At a news conference with the other party leaders, Pita said they will release a memorandum of understanding outlining a framework for the coalition 22 May 2023. The eight parties agreed to support Pita becoming the next prime minister. They include the Pheu Thai Party, affiliated with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which placed second in the election. But it remained to be seen if they will be able to form a government. The parties won a total of over 310 seats in the Lower House. But they still need around 60 more seats, including from the senate, to choose the prime minister.
Eight opposition parties in Thailand signed an agreement 22 May 2023 on a joint platform that they hope will help them form a coalition government. The alliance is led by the Move Forward Party, which won the largest number of seats in the recent general election, but fell short of winning a majority. The eight parties signed a memorandum of understanding that called for a new constitution to be drafted and military conscription to be abolished. But the memorandum did not include a plan to revise the law that prohibits people from insulting the monarchy. That was one of Move Forward's election pledges. Other parties are cautious about such a revision. The Pheu Thai Party, which is affiliated with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is a member of the alliance. The party placed second in the election. However, the eight parties still do not have a majority of the combined lower house and senate seats. If they clear that threshold, they will have the power to choose the prime minister.
Harvard-educated Pita faced an uphill battle as Thailand's conservative elite reject his party's economic reforms and promises to weaken royal defamation laws. Thailand's penal code punishes those convicted of insulting or defaming Thailand's royal family with three to 15 years of prison for each count. Pita had managed to put together an eight-party coalition backing his PM candidacy, representing 312 seats in the House of Representatives in total. Yet, the non-elected, military-backed Senate rejected his premiership on 13 July 2023 due to Move Forward's pro-democracy platform.
Thailand's parliament on 12 July 2023 voted to void the prime ministerial nomination of Pita Limjaroenat. "Pita can't be nominated twice in this parliamentary session," the parliament house speaker said. Pita failed a PM vote the previous week. The move comes as the Thai parliament convened to vote for a new PM. Pita's social democratic Move Forward party came out the strongest in the May 14 general election, having won 151 seats.
Thailand's Constitutional Court temporarily suspended Pita from his parliamentary duties, as it considers an electoral crimes case against him. In a majority vote, the court said it would consider an Election Committee petition that would disqualify Pita's status as a member of parliament. In the meantime, the judicial body said Pita "must suspend his role from July 19, until the Constitutional Court has made the decision." The case against Pita revolves around his stake in a now-defunct media company. According to the Thai constitution, lawmakers are prohibited from owning stock in media outlets. Pita, who comes from wealth, said his stake in the company was inherited from his father.
Thailand's election-winning party was dropped from a coalition that was supposed to form the next government. The second-largest Pheu Thai Party announced 02 August 2023 it will seek a coalition without the Move Forward Party, which emerged as the winner in the May general election. This decision meant the pro-democracy alliance the two formed with six other parties had collapsed. Pheu Thai leader Cholnan Srikaew made the announcement after meeting with Move Forward representatives on Wednesday. He said his party cannot agree with amending lese majeste law that Move Forward is pushing for. The law criminalizes criticism of Thailand's royal family. Move Forward's leader was initially the alliance's candidate for prime minister. But Pita Limjaroenrat failed to gain enough support from the parliament.
Now it was Pheu Thai that is attempting to form the government. But the party's discussions with pro-royalist parties displeased the progressives, and conservatives are refusing to join any alliance that includes the Move Forward Party. Billionaire businessman Thaksin Shinawatra, who became Thailand's prime minister in 2001 and was ousted in a 2006 military coup, is due to return to the country. Thaksin found himself fending off multiple criminal cases in the aftermath of the coup, including charges of corruption and tax evasion. He fled Thailand in 2008 to avoid imprisonment. But his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra confirmed the 74-year-old politician would end his 15-year-exile and return to Thailand on 10 August 2023.
Thaksin's return to the political arena is a "lose-lose" move for his party's credibility. The narrative of a power-hungry Thaksin is terrible news for Pheu Thai as it also sends a morally-bankrupt message to longtime supporters that his values and principles can be corrupted by making a deal with the devil, the same people that not only drove him from office, but forced him into exile.
Move Forward Party, the up-and-coming political group led by Pita Limjaroenrat, which surpisingly won the most seats in Thailand's May parliamentary polls, was excluded 02 August 2023 from the coalition to form the next government. The new bloc nominated real estate tycoon, Srettha Thavisin, as its candidate for prime minister. With the news, Pita Limjaroenrat's prospects of becoming the next prime minister had been officially put to a halt, although his political future may be far from over. Pheu Thai deputy leader Phumtham Wechayachai said a government led by his party would not support amending Section 112 of the Criminal Code but would focus on solving economic and political problems - a move seen as a concession to the conservatives and the military, who are considered royalists.
Property tycoon Srettha Thavisin, was originally one of Pheu Thai's three PM candidates, alongside former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and former attorney general, Chaikasem Nitisiri. A successful entrepreneur liked by business leaders from the more conservative Thai elite, Srettha is seen as more palatable to the establishment than Pita.
With a towering height of 1.93 metres (6'4" feet), Srettha was a dominant figure during the May 2023 campaign for parliament, which Pheu Thai had expected to win by a landslide. Instead, they landed second place with 141 seats behind Move Forward. According to Khaosod, a Thai news website, the 60-year-old businessman is considered "a representative of liberal political ideas, but not too extreme."
As head of the multi-billion dollar real estate company, Sansiri, the US-trained businessman, also had experience in governing. "He stresses the importance of addressing the problems of economic and social inequality that need to be solved," Khaosod wrote of Srettha, who only entered politics in 2022 after decades spent in business, including the multi-national company, Procter and Gamble.
He is married for over 34 years to a medical specialist in elderly care and they have three children together.
A Voice of America article published during the May 2023 campaign season described Srettha as "straight-talking" politician who "lacks the instant sparkle that generates mass appeal" but had "business acumen that could evoke the confidence of millions of voters" and "a flair for brand building". It appears that Srettha also has the confidence of Thaksin Shinawatra, the still influential former prime minister and brother of another former prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Srettha told VoA that his decades of friendship with his fellow businessman, Thaksin, eventually led him to politics. He also said that the despair he felt after the ouster of Thaksin and his sister, as well as the military takeover that followed played in his decision to enter politics last year. In the same interview, Srettha expressed his disdain for the military takeover of Thailand, and said that he would not be able to govern with them, signaling a possible major hurdle with the military-backed senators.
But he could still convince enough of the 250-member parliament to win, given his reputation among the more conservative Thai elites, who are seen as supportive of the royal family. One senator, Khunying Porntip Rojanasunan, however, announced on Tuesday that she would not exercise her right as an appointed senator to vote for a prime minister, no matter who is nominated. Another senator resigned, Renu Tunkachivangoon, had tendered her resignation on July 12.
Real estate mogul Srettha Thavisin won the backing of Thailand’s parliament on 22 August 2023 to become prime minister, paving the way to a new coalition government and an end to weeks of uncertainty and political stalemate. The return of Thailand’s most famous politician and Srettha’s smooth ascent to the top job will add to speculation that Thaksin may have done a deal with his enemies in the military and establishment to allow his safe return, and possibly an early release from jail.
The king of Thailand commuted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 8-year prison sentence to one on 01 September 2023, after the former premier requested a royal pardon. Thaksin attracts intense focus because of his continuing influence on Thai politics. The king's clemency announcement came a day after the acting justice minister confirmed Thaksin's request for a royal pardon. The king's statement says Thaksin is a former prime minister who performed good deeds for the country and its people. It added Thaksin is old and has health problems. Thaksin was ousted as prime minister during a coup in 2006. After 15 years of de-facto exile, he returned to Thailand last week. The 74-year-old was sent straight to prison. Thailand will soon install a new coalition government. The prime minister is Srettha Thavisin, from the Pheu Thai Party. The party's previous incarnation, Thai Rak Thai, was founded by Thaksin. In order to take power, Srettha has formed a coalition with former rivals in pro-military parties. There's been speculation the coalition was part of a deal in Thaksin's bid for a pardon.
After three months of post-polls uncertainty, Thailand finally had a government. As expected, it was a conservative coalition led by Pheu Thai that includes Bhumjaithai and the two military-backed parties, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation. As such, Thailand foreign and defense policies under new Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin will represent continuity with the military-linked government that ran Thailand from 2014 until 2023. Srettha was in a political bind. He betrayed his supporters by breaking Pheu Thai’s pledge to not to invite military-backed parties into his ruling coalition after they were thoroughly repudiated in the May 14 general election. Srettha hoped he can win the electorate back following his party’s Faustian bargain by implementing a host of populist economic policies to benefit rural constituents in particular.
Pheu Thai promised a lot, and there are real questions about whether his government can afford the programs that include a monthly digital wallet, a three-year debt holiday for agricultural loans and other rural infrastructure investments. At the same time, the former real estate tycoon needs to restart the stuttering Thai economy. Gross Domestic Product growth was just downgraded by Fitch Ratings to 2.8% from 3% for 2023. Exports have fallen for 10 consecutive months.
Inexperienced ministers will be at the mercy of the career permanent secretaries who are expected to promote the interests of the military and monarchy-backed state institutions. Prime Minister Srettha and his defense minister will have little say over the military’s annual promotions and appointments, continuing the military’s autonomy.
This government is expected to be much more welcoming of Chinese trade and investment. Likewise, this government is likely to be unwilling to press the military to stop buying Chinese weapons, in particular the current submarine deal.
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