TPDF - Predictions
It is likely that the TPDF will continue to place a priority on strengthening its military ties with the US. However, while doing so the ever pragmatic TPDF will also continue to pursue military assistance wherever it is available, including China, Russia, Iran, Sudan, Israel, the UAE and a growing number of Arab states.
The TPDF will continue on its recent path of more active participation in regional and international PKO operations. The government and people of Tanzania are proud to see their military involved in PKO operations, and the TPDF sees PKO operations as a viable means to develop and maintain military proficiency. However, the TPDF's willingness to participate in PKO operations will continue to be hampered by its lack of capacity in terms of military hardware to meet the international standards required for PKO deployments.
The TPDF will likely expand and improve its National Service Program, which is called 'Jeshi La Kujenga Taifa' (JKT), or "military for building the nation". There has been a public discussion about whether to re-instate mandatory JKT service for all secondary school graduates, with some sectors of Tanzanian society saying that JKT provides not just good employment opportunities for Tanzanian youth, but also structure and discipline. As the JKT program expands, the government of Tanzania is considering a mandate that all future applicants for police and government servicejobs must be national service graduates.
The TPDF will continue to place a priority on professional military education, with a focus on improvements to its Command and Staff College (CSC) located in Monduli, near Arusha. The CSC has been co-located with the Tanzania Military Academy (TMA) for several years, and the TPDF has long wanted to separate the two institutions in order to provide more focused instruction for cadets and officers alike. The TPDF also wants to build better and larger officer housing so that CSC students can bring their families to Monduli while they complete the year-long CSC course. New dormitories were completed in late 2008/early 2009, and construction on new CSC classrooms and administrative buildings has already begun at a location closer to Arusha. However, completion of the new CSC is entirely dependent on available funding, and given the TPDF's many PKO commitments, it is probable that construction on the CSC buildings will be delayed and will take many years to complete.
The TPDF will look to increase and strengthen regional ties with the EAC. The successful completion of Exercise Kilimanjaro, which was hosted by Tanzania, demonstrates Tanzania's commitment to the EAC. Military engagement is a vital component of Tanzania's participation in the EAC, and the TPDF will most likely work to strengthen its ties with the EAC by increasing activities and cooperation with its fellow EAC member states. In the long run, a stronger, more effective EAC with an independent military arm would likely make the TPDF reconsider its military commitment to SADC. However, in the near term the ever pragmatic TPDF will likely remain active in both the EAC and SADC.
Tanzania has been an ambivalent partner in the EAC's movement towards greater economic (and ultimately political) integration, mainly over concerns that Kenya (and Kenyans) will take economic advantage of increased Tanzanian openness. While professing commitment to the EAC, the government has also stressed the need to move forward at a pace its people will accept. Given the TPDF's positive reputation among the Tanzanian public, closer military cooperation within the EAC may be an avenue for the government to build support for greater integration in other areas.
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