Taiwan - 2024 Elections
The people of Taiwan picked a new president on January 13 in an election widely seen as critical to the direction of global geopolitics. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term, as Taiwan's Constitution limits the president's tenure to two terms. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party named Vice President Lai Ching-te as its candidate for the presidential election to be held in January, while the Taiwan People's Party, the third-largest force in legislature, picked former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je. Taiwan's largest opposition Kuomintang party picked the mayor of New Taipei City, Hou Yu-ih, as its candidate for the 2024 presidential election. That set up a three-way race among all major parties.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party was founded by a group of people who long campaigned for democracy instead of the Kuomintang's dictatorship after World War Two. The overriding policy is to maintain independence, and the party takes a rather liberal approach to domestic issues — for example, calling for the abandonment of nuclear power.
The Kuomintang held on to power long after the war. The party emphasizes dialogue and economic relations with Beijing, and has a strong support base among the elderly and people who do business with China. The Kuomintang has many conservative domestic policies, and does not appeal to young people. And the Taiwan People's Party criticizes the other two major political forces for arguing over issues such as "unification versus independence," and whether to use the name "Republic of China" or "Taiwan." The TPP calls for a different type of politics, and has gained support among young people. The TPP claims the DPP would raise tensions with China, and the Kuomintang would fall in line with Beijing too much.
China's military has been increasing its pressure on Taiwan, and all three parties are calling for stronger defensive capabilities, mainly in cooperation with the US. However, they differ greatly on how to achieve that. If the DPP cannot engage in dialogue with Beijing, the party plans to cooperate with other countries such as the US, Japan, the Philippines and Australia. The Kuomintang insists on dialogue and exchanges with China. China has actually been less confrontational this time, and there has been less noticeable interference. Also, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have calmed somewhat.
Taiwan’s vice-president William Lai Ching-te was tapped to be the Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate in 2024 following Tsai Ing-wen’s January 2020 election victory. Seven months earlier, Lai was a bitter opponent of Tsai, seeking to replace her as the self-governed island’s leader by winning the ruling DPP’s presidential primary races. But Lai, a 60-year-old political star who almost sparked infighting within the DPP, is now in political wedlock with Tsai, after accepting the president’s invitation in November 2019 to be her running mate.
Lai had consistently been ranked as Taiwan’s most effective mayor during his eight years as head of the southern city of Tainan. On 26 September 2017, Lai Ching-te, the head of Taipei’s executive body, said that he is a “Zhuzhang taiwan duli de zhengzhi gongzuozhe” (political worker advocating Taiwan independence). On September 27, he further claimed that Taiwan is an independent sovereign state. Not surprisingly, Lai’s remarks led to a strong rebuke from Beijing. On 15 March 2019, Lai Ching-te further claimed that Taiwan is already an independent sovereign state and does not need another declaration. Instead, he asserted, what Taiwan needs to do is to defend its sovereignty and its values. He said ‘Taiwan doesn’t want to be a second Hong Kong or Tibet’.
Lai, a self-proclaimed “pragmatic Taiwan independence worker”, had strong support from the hardline pro-independence camp as he took on Tsai in the June 2019 primary, slamming her over what he viewed as her failure to bring hope to the island because she was too mild in dealing with the mainland. In addition to viewing Tsai as being too moderate with Beijing, hardliners had criticised the president’s efforts to maintain the cross-strait status quo, saying it deviated from the DPP’s pro-independence platform.
Some DPP members believe Beijing’s saber-rattling and threats of annexation will help Lai, who likely would run on a more radical separatist platform and muster more support from young voters – as seen in 2020 when Tsai’s popularity was uplifted by Xi Jinping’s talk of replicating Hong Kong and Macau’s “one country, one system” status for Taiwan.
Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te secured his place on the 2024 presidential election ticket as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's candidate. Lai was the only person to register by the 17 March 2023 deadline to run in the DPP's primary. Lai served as premier before he was appointed vice president in May 2020. He was elected DPP chairperson in January 2023.
Lai leads the polls. Lai said when he registered for the primary that he wants to be given a chance to unite the people of Taiwan, improve the economy, safeguard democracy, bolster defense and preserve peace. While serving as premier, Lai described himself as a "pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence." But after assuming the post of DPP leader, he said there is no need for Taiwan to declare independence because it "is already." Lai stressed that he will continue Tsai's policy on cross-strait issues.
The DPP's main rival, Kuomintang, is aiming to win back power in the 2024 election after being the opposition for eight years. The party had yet to choose its presidential candidate. After a 25-year absence from the political arena, Chao Shao Kang, a Taiwanese media personality and a politician, declared his solid decision to run the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan, during a press conference, in Taipei, Taiwan, 08 January 2021. Chao said he will take part in the primary election of the Kuomintang (KMT), the pro China's party in a Taiwan, with him setting out ''make Taiwan great again'' as his campaign slogan. Media personality Jaw Shaw-kong, who rejoined the Kuomintang party in February 2021 after 28 years, suggested unification with the mainland was inevitable but said the fate could be indefinitely postponed as long as Taipei did not push for formal independence.
Taiwan's largest opposition Kuomintang party has picked the mayor of New Taipei City, Hou Yu-ih, as its candidate for the 2024 presidential election. The party announced the nomination on 17 May 2023, saying it considered recent poll results and opinions of its lawmakers. Hou said that internationally, Taiwan faces the danger of war, while domestically there are conflicts over divisions and countless things to be fixed. He vowed to lead the KMT to victory.
Hou served as national police chief, then deputy mayor of New Taipei City before winning its mayoral election in 2018. He was reelected last year. Hou has said he is against Taiwan independence and does not agree to the "one country, two systems" framework. But he has rarely spoken about his stance on relations with China and other diplomatic issues. In the race for the nomination, Terry Gou, the founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry, was also seen as a potential candidate. Observers say Hou's nomination could stir dissatisfaction among KMT members, as Gou's support rate increased during the prolonged selection process. The party now faces the challenge of uniting to win back power for the first time in eight years.
Foxconn's billionaire founder Terry Gou announced 28 August 2023 he will run for president of Taiwan as an independent candidate. Gou made his fortune turning Foxconn into the world's largest contract producer of electronics, including for Apple's iPhones. He has a long-running ambition to become the leader of the self-ruled island but failed this year in an attempt to become the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party's nominee for the January 2024 election. Analysts predicted Gou had only a slim chance of winning, with three opposition candidates in the race against a united Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) whose nominee Lai Ching-te has been leading in polls. But Gou positioned himself as a leader who could promote peace between Taiwan and China. Foxconn has built huge factories in China and critics allege he has a cosy relationship with the leadership in Beijing. He stepped down as Foxconn's chief in 2019 for a failed presidential run.
Taiwanese presidential candidate and incumbent vice president Lai Ching-te confirmed 20 November 2023 his running mate will be Hsiao Bi-khim, the democratic island's former envoy in Washington, who has described herself as a "cat warrior" in the face of China's "wolf-warrior" diplomacy. The choice of Hsiao, 52, suggests the ruling Democratic Progressive Party will still be campaigning on a platform of protecting Taiwan's democratic way of life from China's territorial ambitions and expanding its diplomatic reach, a platform that brought a landslide victory for outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen in 2020. Hsiao, who has served as Taipei's de facto ambassador to the United States and who has been sanctioned as an “independence diehard” by Beijing, said she has shared values with Lai including defending Taiwan's freedom and democracy.
Three candidates submitted presidential bids for Taiwan's presidential election on 13 January. Foxconn founder Terry Gou pulled out of the race after coalition talk collapsed between Taiwan's two leading opposition parties.
Relations with China were one of the key issues of the election, even though all three camps say they are committed to maintaining the status quo. Lai said, "Taiwan is a de facto independent country." Hou had a positive stance toward exchanges with China and opposes "Taiwan independence." Ko was also in favor of exchanges with China, as long as Taiwan's relations with the United States remain stable.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his New Year's address that China will "surely" be unified. Komiya says this suggests Xi is hoping for a change of government in Taiwan, with an opposition party willing to take a conciliatory stance toward China taking power. However, Xi knew that a sudden increase in military and economic pressure on the ruling party ahead of the election could invite backlash and hurt the opposition candidates.
William Lai Ching-te from the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has won Taiwan’s presidential election, despite warnings from China – which claims Taiwan as part of its territory – not to vote for him. The DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion on the island, Beijing said after Lai was named the winner of Saturday’s vote, adding that the vote “will not impede the inevitable trend of China’s reunification”.
Taiwan's Central Election Commission announced Lai won 5,575,036 votes, Hou Yu-ih from the biggest opposition Kuomintang party won 4,659,195, and Ko Wen-je from the second-largest opposition Taiwan People's Party won 3,680,897 as of 10 p.m. JST. Hou Yu-ih of the biggest opposition Kuomintang party conceded defeat at around 8 p.m. local time. Speaking to supporters, he said, "It is very regrettable that my efforts were not enough. I disappointed you by not being able to bring about a change in government. I apologize for that." Ko Wen-je of the second-largest opposition Taiwan People's Party also conceded defeat. He told his supporters, "I won't give up, so I don't want anyone else to give up. We will continue our efforts, and we believe that people will vote for me and the Taiwan People's Party with confidence in four years."
Beijing appeared to view the election with grave concern. Chinese officials have been hoping for a change in power as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has sought to counter pressure from Beijing. China has been taking a carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan to try and rattle the ruling party, applying military and economic pressure while providing benefits for Taiwan. All eyes were on how President Xi Jinping responds to the results of the vote and whether he takes a tougher approach, as it would carry security implications for Japan, the United States and other countries.
The victory of William Lai, candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party and vice president of Taiwan, in the presidential elections could lead to Chinese retaliation, which could include Beijing following the elections or after his inauguration as president in May, by launching live-fire military exercises near Taiwan that simulate a blockade but do not implement it. China could also partially suspend the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework agreement, which would increase tariffs on Taiwanese goods such as petrochemicals and textiles but not on chips or other advanced electronics, which China needs for its industrial development.
Taiwan is an indivisible part of our country and will not become a separate state, it will return to China, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. "Taiwan has never been a country. It wasn't in the past, and it certainly won't be in the future," Wang said 14 January 2024. "We urge all external forces to refrain from provocative actions that undermine regional stability and international security in the Taiwan Strait amid the regional elections," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. Zakharova condemned attempts by some countries to use Taiwan's elections as a means to pressure Beijing and destabilize the region.
With Lai's presidential win, the 64-year-old politician, who has described himself in the past as a "pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence," is expected to maintain Tsai's approach to China given that foreign policy is in the hands of the president. This means that Taiwan-China relations will likely remain standoffish, and relations between China and the United States will become even more important as the U.S. faces a hugely important election of its own in November 2024.
According to the CEC, 19.55 million people from Taiwan's population of 23.4 million were eligible to vote this year, including around 1.028 million first-time voters. There were a total of 17,795 polling stations around Taiwan, it said, and voter turnout was 71.86 percent.
Lai had a much smaller margin of victory than did President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP in 2016 and 2020 when she won by 25 percentage points and 18.5 points, respectively, though that was bound to happen with a three-party race. Conditions were also quite different. In 2016, major dissatisfaction with the KMT administration of President Ma Ying-jeou led to a major DPP win and in 2020, the KMT was hurt by China's crackdown on protests in Hong Kong. In this election cycle, voter fatigue with the DPP and dismay with its lack of transparency led to a desire for change, but that opposition was split between the KMT and Ko Wen-je, who tried but failed to unite their tickets.
Despite his victory, Lai could face a tougher challenge than his predecessor in gaining support for his policies and greater scrutiny in the Legislature, after the DPP failed to secure an absolute majority in the 113-seat body. In the legislative elections, the DPP secured 51 seats, the KMT 52, and the TPP eight, CEC data showed. Another two seats were won by independents aligned with the KMT, but the party's gain of 15 seats was still not enough to give it the absolute majority it craved.
The question now is whether the TPP will work with the KMT or DPP on electing a speaker and pushing legislative priorities or spend most of its time trying to draw attention to itself. Outside of the big three, the New Power Party, which went into the election with three seats, won none in the first-past-the-post electoral districts, nor did it meet the 5 percent threshold to win at-large seats.
Although the TPP's Ko finished last in the presidential election, his ability to get more than a quarter of the vote, and his party's ability to pick up 22.07 percent of the political party vote has established him as a force to contend with. The surgeon-turned politician pledged at a post-election press event a return to the presidential race in four years time. Ko said that despite losing the election, the TPP has ushered in a new era of Taiwanese politics that includes three major parties, with the TPP set to become a "critical minority" in the Legislature. The election reaffirmed a widely held belief that Taiwan needs a voice other than the pan-green and the pan-blue political camps, and that this voice will be critical in guiding the country, Ko told supporters gathered at his campaign headquarters in New Taipei.
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