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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin - 2012-2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he agrees with the provisions of Russia's Constitution barring a president from seeking a third consecutive term in office. Putin became Russia's president on January 31, 1999, winning elections in 2000 and 2004. In 2008, upon completion of his second term in office, Putin left the presidency and was appointed as Russia's prime minister by President Dmitry Medvedev. The Russian president was reelected for his second consecutive term as president in 2018, with the next presidential election scheduled to take place in March 2024. In January 2020 Putin proposed election of the Prime Minister by the Duma. He would himself again shift over to being Prime Minister and can thus remain in office until he is carried out feet first. In the Soviet era it was said "Lenin Lived, Lenin Lives, Lenin Will Live", famous lines from a 1924 poem by Vladimir Mayakovsky. And now it may be said "Putin Lived, Putin Lives, Putin Will Live".

Russia seemed to face a succession crisis in 2024, when Russian constitutional terms limits say Putin will be ineligible to seek another consecutive term. Putin's mandate will not expire until 2024 but the problem needed immediate attention because the uncertainty about his long-term future is a source of instability in a fractious ruling elite that only he can keep in check. "The Russian political scene is entering a new phase," Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin adviser who is now critical of the country's leadership, said in March 2018. "Most discussion within the ruling elite focuses not on the next stage of the Putin era but on what will constitute the post-Putin era." The elites are going to find the succession issue unacceptable, because whoever Putins successor is, this successor would have to despite staying loyal to Putin reshuffle the elites in order to maintain power.

Putin was president for two consecutive, four-year terms, from 2000 to 2008 and returned to the presidency in May 2012 after serving four years as prime minister under President Dmitry Medvedev. The Russian Constitution was amended in 2008 to increase the presidential term to six years from four previously. Under the law, the same person may not hold the presidency for more than two consecutive terms, so Putin could be re-elected to a fourth, six-year term in 2018, keeping him in the presidency until 2024, at which time he would be 72 years old, having served 20 years in office [Stalin reigned 27 years, and Brezhnev was boss for 18 years].

Under Article 92 of the Constitution, "2. The President of the Russian Federation shall cease to exercise his powers short of the term in case of his resignation, stable inability because of health reasons to exercise the powers vested in him or in case of impeachment. In this case the election of the President of the Russian Federation shall take place not later than three months since the termination of the powers short of the term.

3. In all cases when the President of the Russian Federation is incapable of fulfilling his duties, they shall temporarily fulfilled by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation. The Acting President of the Russian Federation shall have no right to dissolve the State Duma, appoint a referendum, and also provisions of the Constitution of the Russian Federation."

At the end of the Great Patirotic War, all party and government power remained, as before, in Stalin's hands and the organs of "collective leadership," such as the party's Central Committee and the Politburo, were practically impotent. The Central Committee was being more and more neglected by its General Secretary; meetings, when they took place (at intervals of several years), served only to say "yes" to Stalin's proposals. Mikls Kun ntoed that after "the last Party plenum convention in February 1947 when Stalin resigned as head of the military, he had refused to be present at all or deliver speeches to his subordinates. By doing so, he was letting Party underlings know that he was no longer interested in formalities in contrast to before when he was careful to have the most important rules ratified by the Central Committee."

Despite this evisceration by Stalin, upon his death all the various organis of state power functioned more or less according to their formal responsibilities in the selection of Stalin's successors.

It had been long predicted that Kremlin clan rivalries would heat up as the 2008 succession date approached. In the absence of political institutions, the glue of the system created by Putin was his personalized power and the loyalty of those he had appointed to key positions. Putin attempted to preserve that power by keeping those jockeying for continued influence off balance. His strategy was to further reduce the transparency of the process, continue to appoint Petersburgers of proven loyalty to key positions, make liberal use of the element of surprise, and indicate, more and more unmistakably, that he will remain a force to contend with.

While authoritarian and over-centralized, the Russian political system rests on the acquiescence of the governed. Vladimir Putin remained popular. For this democratically legitimized authoritarian system to continue to operate in the current mode, Putin's successor needs to be genuinely popular. Putins successor might have to follow in his footsteps, consolidating the new rule by denouncing his predecessor and forcing todays Kremlin team into early retirement. Russia, unlike China, makes no provision for an elder statesman who can exercise influence at a respectable distance.

Skepticism about Putin's intentions was long fed by the opaque nature of the succession process and the lack of historical precedent. Should the status quo hold, Putin will be the first relatively young, healthy, and popular leader in Russian history to voluntarily depart office. Instead of engendering pride that Russia is becoming "a normal country," that prospect is creating anxiety among many who associate the end of the Putin era with the end of stability.

By 2006 the preoccupation with succession politics, and an attendant increase in infighting over politics and assets, left less Kremlin time and energy for policymaking. The Kremlin was working in overkill mode to neutralize any threats to its succession scenario, notably from Dmitriy Rogozin and Mikhail Kasyanov.

In 2008 both informal successors (first deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who was also a deputy (PM), had obvious problems with electoral appeal. Medvedev's televison appearances left the impression of weakness and indecisiveness, while Sergey Ivanov has more successfully captured the "presidential" style that reminds viewers of Putin. Discussion also includes other possible contenders, with Dmitriy Kozak and Sergey Sobyanin appearing most frequently.

In mid-July 2007 Igor Ivanov resigned from his post as Secretary of the Security Council and was replaced by Valentin Sobolev. Speculation about the causes of Ivanovs removal focused on the burning question of Putins successor as President and the fact that Ivanov had become too prominent a candidate for those in the presidential administration.

By moving Dmitriy Medvedev from Presidential Administration (PA) chief to First Deputy Prime Minister and above all by placing him in charge of the national priority projects, Putin appeared motivated by a desire to give Medvedev a higher public profile and to increase his popularity as a way to lay the groundwork for presidential anointment. Putin's successor, new Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, was hand-picked by Putin and elected with more than 70 percent of all votes.

Putin has tried to maintain the image of a physically strong, decisive leader who can be counted on to solve challenging problems. He is a judo black belt, has shot tigers and eats raw eggs for breakfast, but rumors of Vladimir Putin's health problems continue to circulate. Putin's presidency followed Boris Yeltsin, whose obvious physical decline while in office was a source of embarrassment for many Russians. This followed the frail gerentocracy of Andropov, Chernenko, and the declining Brezhnev. Aleksei Venediktov, a prominent journalist and editor of Ekho Moskvy, which broke the news of Yeltsin's medical difficulties in the mid-1990s, said of Putin that " ... of course he will try to preserve the image of an absolutely health and eternally young person."

In 2013 Russian men on average lived for 65.7 years, and only 58.9 years were spent in good health. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born on 07 October 1952. At age 61 in 2013, Putin was already beating the odds on good health, and migh have no more than another five yers of life. But Putin's health care is not average, and the main reason for the extraordinary difference in premature death between Western and Eastern Europe is vodka, lots of vodka.

Vladimir Lenin (18701924) died at age 54, Joseph Stalin (18781953) died at age 75, Leonid Brezhnev (19061982) died at age 76, Yuri Andropov (19141984) died at age 70, and Konstantin Chernenko (19111985) died at age 74. Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin died April 24, 2007 at the age of 76, after along period of poor health. Given a typical lifespan of these leaders of about 75 years, Putin might be expected to live until the year 2027.

Putin visibly limped during the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum in Vladivostok in September 2012, and several scheduled domestic and international engagements were postponed until December. A long-running health issue was likely to have been exacerbated by a September stunt when Putin took to the Siberian skies in a motorised hang-glider to lead a flock of rare cranes on the first leg of their migration.

In November 2012, Putin displayed a rare moment of weakness when he succumbed to an apparent back injury that led him to scale back his schedule. In January 2014, the US magazine The Week reported about rumors that Putin is "seriously ill" and "perhaps" had cancer of the spinal cord. The piece cites "seasoned observers" as its source. In October 2014, the US tabloid The New York Post quoted unidentified "sources" as saying that Putin was suffering from deadly pancreatic cancer. The newspaper suggested the information originated with an elderly German doctor who had treated Putin.

By 13 March 2015 Putin had not been seen in public for at least a week, fueling speculations about his health. But he had not been seen in public since hosting Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi 05 March 2015. Social media headlines reporting allegations from the Russian Internet that Putin is dead prompted the mainstream media worldwide to speculate about the Russian president's state of health.

Vladimir Putin made a triumphant return to the public eye on 13 March 2015, laughing off gossip about ill health as he posed for the cameras with the President of Kyrgyzstan. But reporters described Putin as sweaty, shiny, puffy and ill-looking during the engagement. Jason Corcoran, a reporter for Bloomberg News, said he appeared as if he were suffering from the flu and was puffy, sniffling and sweating. Leonid Ragozin, a Moscow based journalist, said the Presidents face looked like he had gained some weight.

By 2015 dissatisfaction with Putin among Russias oligarchs was growing, as their business was suffering. Andrey Okara, director of the Moscow Center for East European Research, said they talk about this openly but are not able to influence Putin. Otherwise they risk suffering the fate of Mikhail Khodorkovsky who was in prison for ten years. In Russia, you are either with the president or else. Nonetheless, he continues, in Putins entourage, there are people who today are quietly searching for a successor, with the names of Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Vice Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin being the most often mentioned. But for the time being there are no alternatives to Putin in fact.

Opinion polls consistently rate Sergei Shoigu the governments most popular minister. Shoygu might be a strong candidate for Russias highest political office if his good friend, Vladimir Putin, were to leavet office in th near term. As always, the Russian leadership succession process remains opaque. No one close to the throne will dare to announce his presidential aspirations out of fear of being removed. For political reasons, Shoygus appointment as minister of defense in 2012 was not well received by Kremlin insiders such as S.Ivanov, D.Rogozin or I.Sechin.

As of early 2016 there waere several distinct cohorts among those mentioned at one time or another as potential successors to Putin

  1. Gerontocracy Viktor Alekseyevich Zubkov was born in 1941, and is nearly a dozen years older than Putin. Should he remain in the land of the living when a successor is selected, he would seem an unlikely choice unless there was a desire for a shrot Presidency in the face of an inabilty to agree on a candidate satisfactory for the longer term.

  2. Near Peers Putin himself was born in 1952, as was Sergei Chemezov, while Sergei Ivanov was born in 1953 and Sergei Shoigu in 1955. Depending on the timing of the succession, al these individuals present the risk of a rerun of the leadership succession in the period of stagnation, with a sequence of brief reigns by frail rulers. At present, Shoigu is highly visible and quite popular, but rose through the ranks by his own bootstraps, rather than by virute of having play hockey with Putin in St. Petersberg back in the 1990s.

  3. Understudies Dmitri Rogozin was born in 1963, while Dmitry Anatoliyevich Medvedev was born in 1965. Rogozin is a loose cannon, while Medvedev already has experience in the top spot, so he remains the odds-down favorite.

  4. Young Guns Igor Kholmanskikh was born in 1969, Alexey Dyumin was born in 1972, and Ramzan Kadyrov was born in 1976. Assuming that Putin is replaced in 2027 at the end of his nominal life expectancy, each of these indiduals would be in their 50s. But if one contemplates the bewildering array of individuals on whom the spotlight has briefly shown in Russia, it would seem improbable that any of these folks would still be on the national stage at that time.
The failure to create institutions able to regulate the transition process painted the President into a corner and frustrated his efforts to create a system of governance that could survive his departure. One commentator likened succession to transferring a spider web from the branch of one tree to another.

Putin said on 17 April 2014 he had no plans of remaining president for life. While answering a question during a live Q&A session with the public on whether he will remain president for life, Putin responded: No.

The inherent contradiction between ensuring Putin's long-term political influence, while overseeing his departure from the presidency, continued to color decisionmaking and preoccupy the Kremlin leadership. Putin knew from personal experience that "new clans, and new praetorians" would form around his successor.

By the year 2024 Putin's contemporaries would also be in their early seventies, and it is unclear whether there is much appetite in Moscow for a new gerontocracy. The decision-making on the 2008 succession evidently did not begin in earnest much before 2006, so the 2024 succession contest may not begin in earnest prior to 2022. Putin's eventual successor is laboring in relative obscurity today.




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Page last modified: 16-01-2020 13:31:18 ZULU