South Africa - 2024 Election
South Africa's seventh democratic elections must be held between May and August 2024. The exact date of South Africa’s most consequential election since 1994 will be announced by the President early in 2024. The 2024 electin is the first election in South Africa's post-apartheid history that will be highly contested. For the first time, observers predicted that support for the ANC will fall below the 50% threshold and plunge us into a turbulent period of coalition politics. At the local government level, the ANC has had to form political partnerships as far back as 2016. These coalition governments have not been able to address the administrative deficiencies that have plagued many major cities. In August 2023, seven opposition parties agreed to form a coalition to replace the ruling ANC — if the party fails to win an absolute majority in 2024. Among them is the country's largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance.
South Africa is a multiparty parliamentary democracy that has constitutional power shared among the executive, judiciary, and parliamentary branches. In 2019 the country held a credible national election in which the ruling African National Congress won 58 percent of the vote and 230 of 400 seats in the National Assembly. In 2019 African National Congress President Cyril Ramaphosa was sworn in for his first full term as president of the republic. Despite all the scandals that have surrounded Ramaphosa's government, he still benefits from a substantial support base in the ANC. He has survived politically — notwithstanding the attacks by the pro-Zuma factions within the party. That speaks to how smart Ramaphosa is as a politician, The most pressing problem for Ramaphosa, he said, is the economy, which has been stagnant for more than a decade and has grown by barely 1% so far. This tiny increment is totally insufficient to address major challenges such as unemployment, inequality and poverty. The interruption of the power supply has held the economy hostage for years. The priority, he said, was to fight corruption, including in the ANC.
Significant human rights issues included credible reports of: unlawful or arbitrary killings; torture or cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by the government; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest or detention; serious government corruption; trafficking in persons; and crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or intersex persons.
There were numerous reports of racial discrimination, despite the prohibition under the constitution of unfair discrimination against anyone on one or more grounds, including on the ground of race. The South African Human Rights Commission stated in June that gross inequality was fueling racism and racial polarization. The Department of Human Settlements acknowledged inequality along racial lines had affected and continued to affect the country’s segregated spatial development as well as poor communities’ access to reliable infrastructure. Approximately 300 Equality Courts mandated by the Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Act resolved only 600 matters a year. Authorities enforced antidiscrimination provisions in some cases.
Some advocacy groups asserted white farmers were racially targeted for burglaries, home invasions, and killings, while many observers attributed the incidents to the country’s high and growing crime rate. According to the Institute for Security Studies, “farm attacks and farm murders have increased in recent years in line with the general upward trend in the country’s serious and violent crimes.”
According to the Independent Police Investigative Directorate Report 2021/2022, deaths in police custody (223 cases) increased by 3 percent from 2020/2021. The Judicial Inspectorate for Correctional Services (JICS) 2020-21 annual report stated, “A particularly disturbing feature was a sharp rise in cases where the use of force caused the deaths of inmates.” The 2021/2022 IPID report cited 99 reported inmate rapes by police officers, 192 reports of torture, as well as reports of assault.
Prison conditions were harsh and life-threatening due to overcrowding, poor sanitation, inadequate medical care, disease (particularly tuberculosis), as well as inmate-on-inmate rape and physical abuse. According to the 2021/2022 Department of Correctional Services Annual Report, in March 2022 the country held 143,223 prisoners in facilities with a capacity of 110,836 persons. Prisons generally held pretrial detainees with convicted prisoners, although in some large urban areas dedicated pretrial facilities were available. Lengthy pretrial detention was common. According to the Department of Correctional Services 2021/2022 Annual Report, the pretrial population averaged 46,426 of 143,223 detainees, 32 percent of the total inmate population. Legal scholars estimated less than 60 percent of those arrested were convicted. The pretrial detention frequently exceeded the maximum sentence for the alleged crime.
Some inmates with mental disabilities who had committed no crime or other infraction were incarcerated rather than being cared for in a mental-health facility. Such prisoners also were often denied medical services.
There were numerous cases of arbitrary arrest, particularly of foreign workers, asylum seekers, and refugees. NGOs and media outlets reported security forces arbitrarily arrested migrants and asylum seekers, including those with proper documentation, often because police were unfamiliar with migrant and asylum documentation. In some cases, police threatened documented migrants and asylum seekers with indefinite detention and bureaucratic hurdles unless they paid bribes.
Civil society groups complained regarding a steady shrinking of free expression space with particular concern for backlash received on social media for expressing opinions or publishing articles. Vehement attacks in social media have led some journalists to self-censor or not publish, notably women journalists and foreign journalists who allegedly felt more vulnerable to attack.
Opposition parties claimed the ANC used state resources for political purposes in the provinces under its control. ANC membership conferred advantages. Through a cadre deployment system, the ruling party controlled and appointed party members to thousands of civil service positions in government ministries and in provincial and municipal governments.
On 17 April 2023, the President of the Republic of South Africa signed the Electoral Amendment Bill into law. This is a significant milestone in the evolution of South Africa’s democracy, which expands electoral participation and widens the pool of leadership choice for national and provincial elections. The foremost implications of the Electoral Amendment Act (the Act), 1 of 2023, are the inclusion and nomination of independent candidates as contesters to elections in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures for the first time. Members of the National Legislature (National Assembly) and the nine provincial legislatures are elected based on a party-list, compensatory proportional representation (PR) system. This means that political parties were represented in proportion to their electoral support. With the new Act, independent candidates are accommodated within the system.
On 14 August 2023 the Democratic Alliance said its internal poll shows that the party was very close to toppling the ANC in the Gauteng Province. The party said Gauteng, which is South Africa's economic center, is a battleground and heading into the 2024 elections, its provincial leadership will play a vital role to help rescue the province. DA's Gauteng provincial leader Solly Msimang, who was re-elected in the same position in Boksburg over the weekend, said the party is well on its way to winning Gauteng in 2024.
Julius Malema on 28 August 2023 announced the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) aim of outright victory in next year's election. "The EFF, as it stands, they're sitting at 10%. There is no way whatsoever that they can jump from 10% to 50%... It's a pie in the sky." Ntsikelelo Breakfast, Senior Lecturer and Political Analyst – Nelson Mandela University. Many suggested that if the ANC falls below 50% in the national elections, it would do a deal with the EFF. There are otherr options available to the party, which would leave it less exposed to the whims of a party dominated by the volatile leader of the Red Berets.
The risk of chaos after the 2024 election rests on where the EFF turns up in any power sharing deal. An ANC/EFF coalition could be unstable given Julius Malema’s constant flip-flopping. He might favor Ramaphosa initially, but end up dominating him completely before switching to ministers like Gwede Mantashe, and thus continue upsetting the balance of power in cabinet until he is in complete control.
In his address 28 September 2023 to the 22nd National Conference of the South African Association of Public Administration and Management, former President Thabo Mbeki severely criticised the current ANC government. Mbeki argued that South Africa is in steep decline, evidenced by private initiatives to fix state failures. Mbeki will not campaign for the ANC in the 2024 elections, he says, unless the party renews itself.
Initial research from the Social Research Foundation found that the African National Congress would get fewer than 50% of votes in the 2024 national elections. By March 2023 the Social Research Foundation forecast a slight improvement for the ANC, which it now predicted will retain its majority.
South Africa's Electoral Court ruled on 09 April 2024 that Ramaphosa's rival, former president Jacob Zuma, can run for office in the upcoming general election — overturning an earlier decision that had barred Zuma from the vote. But the electoral commission said 12 April 2024 that it had appealed the ruling to the country's highest judicial authority, the Constitutional Court. Zuma, who used to lead the ruling African National Congress (ANC), now fronts the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) — named after the ANC's former military wing. The new opposition party had emerged as a potentially significant player on the political field since its formation in 2023.
A recent poll suggested the embattled ANC may garner as little as 37% of the vote in South Africa's May 29 election. The MK’s rapid rise since its birth last year could, in particular, damage the ANC in KZN, South Africa’s second most populous province, where polls suggest the Zuma-backed party could emerge as the single biggest winner in the coming election. Zuma is an enigmatic political figure with a huge following among the Zulu community, South Africa’s largest ethnic group to which he belongs.
A March 2024survey of voters conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation, a Johannesburg-based think tank, indicated that nationally the ANC’s support has fallen to 39 percent, with the closest opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), gaining ground with 27 percent. The same survey found that in KZN, Zuma’s MK party is set to be the largest, with 25 percent of the vote. The ANC (20 percent), DA (19 percent) and IFP (19 percent) are running neck and neck and a coalition provincial government is likely to govern the province. The poll also suggested a national coalition government is highly likely after the general election.
Although the MK draws most of its support from the ANC voter base, its presence is being felt by other political parties such as the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), a traditionalist Zulu nationalist party and key opposition to the ANC in KZN, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which was formed by a Julius Malema, a popular former ANC youth leader. Just over 27 million South Africans have registered to vote in the upcoming polls. Gauteng, the country’s most populous province with more than seven million registered voters, and KwaZulu-Natal, with 5.7 million voters, are the main battlegrounds.
The country went to the polls on May 29 and the results were shattering for the ANC, as it obtained only 40.18% of the vote, or 159 seats in the 400-seat parliament. Hamstrung by corruption allegations, unstable electricity and water supplies, growing unemployment and economic challenges, the ANC for the first time since it was swept into power in 1994, lost its majority. When the election results were announced on June 2 by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), the party currently led by President Cyril Ramaphosa had lost 16% of the seats it held after the last election in 2019. The MKP, was formed in June last year, obtained 14.58% of the vote or more than 4.5 million ballots in May, making it the third largest party in the country. In KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province, the MKP swept aside the ANC with 45.35% of the vote compared to 17%.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) which secured its position as opposition party in the country at the elections with 21% or 6.9 million votes has struggled to shake off the image that it represents the interests of white South Africans – something its leaders have rejected – who make up 7% of the country’s population. The DA had controlled the Western Cape province since 2009, and that region’s economy has done better than the rest of the country, even showing the results of employment creation, while the rest of the country is in a decline.
The African National Congress (ANC), the political movement once led by Nelson Mandela, found itself in a prickly position after South Africa’s May elections, as it seeks to negotiate a coalition with other parties to form a majority government. The ANC, Africa’s oldest liberation movement, formed in 1912, had previously won all of the country’s six elections with a clear majority, allowing it to dominate parliament and appoint its members to head up critical ministries.
There was an almost immediate discussion on coalitions, with the ANC’s options ranging from centre-right parties like the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to left-leaning organisations like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the party led by former ANC president Jacob Zuma, the Umkhonto We Sizwe Party (MKP). The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), whose supporters were engaged in deadly clashes with the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal in the 1990s, was being considered as a coalition partner, although both sets of supporters are wary of cooperate with such a bitter political rival just 30 years after thousands of lives were lost in inter-party violence. A coalition with the Umkhonto We Sizwe Party (MK), whose policies mimic the ANC’s, may seem more palatable to some of the governing party’s supporters, but Zuma had indicated that he will not hold a party-to-party discussion if it involves Ramaphosa.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, is more aggressive in its left aligned-policies on transforming the economy, especially its views on nationalising mines and banks and seizing state-owned land for redistribution to black farmers, which could make the economy jittery.
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) reached an agreement with three opposition parties, including its main rival, the Democratic Alliance (DA), to form a national unity government, state broadcaster SABC reported on 14 June 2024. The move came as lawmakers, elected last month, took the oath of office at the country’s legislative capital, Cape Town. Among the MPs sworn in was South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is seeking a second term. He will give up his seat in parliament if he wins the presidency.
The first session of the new National Assembly, presided over by Chief Justice Raymond Zondo, is expected to elect a speaker via secret ballot; several nominations were received for the position. Following the appointment of the speaker, MPs will decide upon the country’s next leader. Ramaphosa’s ANC lost its majority for the first time in the nation’s post-Apartheid history in the elections held on May 29, obtaining 40.18% of the vote — 159 seats in the 400-seat parliament — down from 230 in the previous election.
The ANC had been negotiating with several opposition groups about various coalition government arrangements following the declaration of results by the electoral commission. SABC said Africa’s oldest liberation movement, together with the DA, the socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party, and the right-wing Patriotic Alliance, had agreed to a unity government. Under the agreement, the center-right DA, which received 22% of the vote and won 87 seats, would get the post of deputy speaker of the National Assembly, according to the outlet. “It [the coalition deal] details the executive decision-making process, a conflict-breaking mechanism, and provides guidelines for policymaking and the finalization of the national budget,” News24 also reported.
After weeks of political deal-making, on 01 July 2024 South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the Cabinet of his new government of national unity. Ministers from different parties will now have to put political differences aside to run the country successfully. South Africa’s new ministers are a diverse group — from a former armed robber to a white Afrikaner nationalist. After the long-governing African National Congress, or ANC, lost its majority in May elections, Ramaphosa opted to form an inclusive government with 10 opposition parties that don’t necessarily see eye to eye. Ramaphosa had to divvy up Cabinet positions to keep everyone happy, with the result a somewhat bloated government of 32 ministers and 43 deputy ministers. The ANC took 20 of the 32 Cabinet posts, while the Democratic Alliance, or DA, which came second in the elections, won six.
Smaller parties took the remainder, including the anti-immigrant, populist Patriotic Alliance and the right-wing white nationalist Freedom Front Plus. The Patriotic Alliance’s leader, Gayton McKenzie, an ex-gangster who was sentenced to 17 years in prison for robbery, is now minister for sports, arts and culture. Pieter Groenewald of the FF Plus has been made minister of correctional services.
The uMkhonto weSizwe party, led by corruption-accused former President Jacob Zuma, finished third in the voting, and the radical Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters came in fourth. Both parties have refused to join the government of national unity, and object to the white-led DA’s participation. They will now be on the opposition benches.
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