Korea - Foreign Relations
The growing overlap of traditional and economic interests is the reason for Seoul to pursue its Global Pivotal State strategy. Notably different from the previous administration, President Yoon proposed the so-called audacious initiatives. South Korea is no longer a small country, in terms of economic size and cultural influence. It became the world's 10th largest economy in 2020, home to Samsung, LG, and Hyundai Motor and its rapid pace of industrialization has been a model of socioeconomic development around the world.
Its cultural influence has grown astronomically through K-Pop, K-dramas, and films, its social values resonating globally despite the language barrier. It's no longer a country that simply observes or bandwagons on the various geopolitical conflicts and economic complexities in the world today, but a vibrant liberal democracy.
President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged to "step up" South Korea's role in the world -- during his electoral campaign -- and turned this pledge into a policy with the Global Pivotal State vision. His government also drew up an Indo-Pacific Strategy, showing support for preserving a free and rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific including the freedom of navigation. In his speech to U.S. Congress and Harvard University, he emphasized that South Korea will now match its economic prowess by standing up for universal values, voicing support for Ukraine, and condemning North Korea's human rights atrocities.
President Yoon reiterated that Korea cannot rely on the goodwill of other states. Neither China nor Russia, had been helpful in restraining North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Let's not forget how China helped North Korea in the Korean War. Beijing and Pyongyang are akin to allies, based on their agreement in 1961 where they agree to assist each other militarily. Politically speaking, too, China and Russia's veto power in the United Nations Security Council has thwarted efforts to condemn or further sanction Pyongyang for its belligerent actions.
As South Korea faces a growing threat from North Korea, not to mention economic uncertainty, Seoul has found that it needs to align itself with the U.S. and the free world. During a time when geopolitical rifts, technological shifts, and COVID-19 have shaped global trade and supply chains, countries are seeking like-minded partners. South Korea is the same as its economic future depends on a liberal world order.
A poll by the Federation of Korean Industries in April 2023 showed that South Koreans largely favored strengthening relations with the US. Another survey on the younger generation found they mostly support building future-oriented ties with Japan. That's quite surprising given the domestic backlash against his move to mend fences with Tokyo. This means they disagree with the style, not the substance of Yoon's diplomacy.
A notable change was spotted in South Korea's foreign policy in the year 2023. In April, presidents Yoon and Biden adopted the 'Washington Declaration', and in August, they cemented their trilateral cooperation with Japan's Prime Minister Kishida through the 'Camp David Principles'. How does Washington assess its renewed relationship with Seoul and Tokyo? What does it mean for the U.S. to align its collective efforts with allies and partners at a time when the stakes are high on the Korean peninsula and around the world?
There was a deepening of the relationship not only between the US and South Korea but between the US, South Korea and Japan. Because throughout the year there was a series of meetings throughout the government. According to the US, these alliances are critical. They're a critical part of countering North Korea's military and nuclear program as well as its space satellite activities. Allegations that North Korea is providing weapons to Russia, which Moscow denies in its fight against Ukraine and allies are preparing for more North Korean threats in 2024. And these are all kinds of reasons why the deepening of these ties not just because of what's happening on the Korean peninsula, but also because of North Korea's weapons proliferation around the world.
The relations between Seoul and Tokyo marked a turning point in March 2023, with better trade relations and the two leaders' frequent meetings. The atmosphere has definitely been very positive. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida obviously sees South Korean president Yoon as a foreign leader who he can trust over the multiple meetings. But of course there are still obstacles to the relationships such as the South Korean court ruling that ordered Tokyo to pay about 200 million won to each of the 16 Comfort Women defendants. But the fact that the new cycle has, at least in Japan, really moved on suggest that the government wants to really manage its ties with South Korea to prevent it from going to prevent relations from worsening. Of course this positive mood has spillover effects that has really benefited cultural ties. Korean food, Korean culture, Korean music K-pop are becoming extremely popular in Japan.
The leaders often describe North Korea's provocations as "unprecedented" in 2023. There was a rare Kim Jong-un-Putin summit in September. Ever since then, Pyongyang's military ties with Moscow have gotten closer than ever. That really culminated with North Korea launching a military spy satellite with help from Russia as it continues to advance its nuclear and missile programs as well as cyber threats.
The leaders were no overstating the trend despite Pyongyang's provocations as unprecedented. So there is a lot of room for very close security collaboration and coordination in the region between South Korea, the US as well as Japan. But Japan and South Korea hope to maintain stable relations with China and this is evident from their trilateral foreign ministers' meeting in Busan that ended in a pledge for a leader summit meeting as soon as possible. If tensions were to rise even further over the Taiwan Strait, Japan and the United States would surely want to involve the South Korean security apparatus, even more, alongside the US forces in South Korea to help contain tensions over the Taiwan Strait, as well.
On 06 July 2023 South Korea was elected a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. During the two years that it will sit on the council, it hoped to work with member states, including China and Russia, to take a more pro-active role in dealing with North Korea. This marked the third time South Korea has been elected to the position after previously serving from 1996 to 1997 and 2013 to 2014. President Yoon Suk Yeol hailed South Korea's election as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council(UNSC) as a "victory of global diplomacy."
The 2024 US presidential election results could affect its bilateral ties with South Korea and the three-way cooperation with Japan. There could be a dramatic change in policy regarding the Korean peninsula depending on the election results. The linchpin to answer that question is whether or not Joe Biden wins, in which case there woudl be a continuation of the existing policy of deepening alliances throughout the Indo Pacific between the US and its Indo Pacific partners. But if Donald Trump wins, who is the leading nominee in the Republican fight, ther could be drastic changes, particularly in the US-South Korea relationship.
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