Khamenei's Successor
A helicopter carrying President Raisi and his entourage crashed in northwestern mountainous forests on 19 May 2024. The fatal accident happened as the president was returning from Khoda Afarin region in Iran’s northwestern province of East Azarbaijan after inaugurating a dam at the common border with the Republic of Azerbaijan. The crash killed President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, Friday prayers leader of Tabriz Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-e-Hashem, Governor of East Azarbaijan Malek Rahmati, the commander of the president’s security team, two pilots and a flight crew.
Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei reportedly suffered from stage 4 prostate cancer. Khamenei underwent prostate surgery in September 2014 and spent about a week in the hospital. His hospitalization in March 2015 spurred on the race for a successor, though he subsequently apperared to be in reasonably good health. The appointment of Khamenei’s successor will be influenced as much by his political connections as by his religious knowledge, though non-clerics probably need not apply. Of the dozen or so men [women need not apply, Iran isn't Mexico, after all] mentioned as potential presidential candidates to succeed Raisi, none were clarics.
With growing unrest in Iran fuelled by major socioeconomic problems, the Assembly of Experts will likely be more inclined to elect a relatively young Supreme Leader who will be able to remain in power for a long time. Speaking about Khamenei’s successor has become a taboo subject in the Iranian media, and the assembly has done its utmost to keep its shortlist of candidates under wraps.
The Iranian regime has a dual structure and its main power is based on the Shia faith; It is a system in which the religious leader (defined as the Guide) has the broadest powers and is elected on a conditional basis for life. The Assembly of Experts (Meclis-i Hubregâni Rehberi), which elects the religious leader, consists of eighty-eight clergy and is elected by the people for eight years. This Parliament has the authority to supervise the religious leader.
Popular candidates [as of early 2015] included Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi (who was close to Ayatollah Khamenei and relatively young at 66) [died in 2018], acting chairman of the Assembly of Experts, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani [died in 2017], who headed the Expediency Discernment Council, and Sadeq Larijani, who headed the judiciary. Larijani was an ayatollah, but aged 53 he was considered young religious sage and inexperienced. Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi was of the far-right, and often put off not only reformers but also conservatives closer to the center. Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader's second son, was unlikely to garner support because he was only 45. And his religious education was incomplete. Other candidates included Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, Tehran's substitute Friday prayer leader; or Ebrahim Raeisi [died in 2024], whom Ayatollah Khamenei appointed to chair the powerful Imam Reza foundation in March 2016. Hojatoleslam Hassan Rowhani - the favorite of reformists and a former chief nuclear negotiator - was elected President of the Islamic Republic of Iran on 14 June 2013, but was not a realistic possibility.
The identity of Ayatollah Khamenei's potential successor remained uncertain, with the orientation of the Assembly of Experts — which selects the supreme leader — also unclear; although reformists performed strongly in the February 2016 Assembly of Experts election, the body subsequently chose a hardliner, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati (who was also head of the Guardian Council), as its chairman. However, Ayatollah Jannati was too old to be a realistic prospect for supreme leader (he was 90), and so Ayatollah Khamenei's successor will almost certainly come from the next generation.
Hardline 82-year old member of the assembly Ayatollah Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari had once insisted that the question of Khamenei's successor has never been debated at the assembly. Mojtahed Shabestari categorically dismissed Raeisi and Khatami as candidates for replacing Khamenei, insisting that the question of the Supreme Leader's successor has never been debated at the AE.
Ahmad Khatami, 58, another cleric, was an influential member of the AE, and Tehran's Friday Prayer Imam, directly appointed by Khamenei. Hojjat ol-Eslam val-Moslemin Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, has always been a possible candidate thanks to his lineage. The 45- year-old reformist cleric currently meets two out of the three prerequisites to become the next Valiy -e Faqih (he cannot yet issue fatwas), but what will probably prevent him from becoming a serious contender was how he was viewed by hardliners.
Mojtaba Khamenei, 49, was the second-born child of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which already makes him a prime candidate to succeed his father. But an argument can be made that the powers that be might overlook the younger Khamenei to avoid having to deal with accusations of hereditary succession: the 1979 revolution ended monarchical hereditary succession.
On 19 May 2024 a helicopter carrying Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and their companions made a "hard landing" in northwestern Iran. Rescue teams arrived at the scene, but the search operation was complicated by tough weather conditions, namely thick fog. The search for the survivors continued all night long. On 20 May 2024, Iranian Vice President Mohsen Mansouri confirmed confirmed Raisi and his delegation were dead. Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi was a skilled orator, often criticizing the West and emphasizing the importance of developing the BRICS and SCO platforms.
Ultraconservative cleric Hojatoleslam Seyyed Ebrahim Ra'isi was elected Iran's new president with more than 61.95 percent of the vote on 18 June 2021. Ebrahim Raeisi was the custodian of a religious financial empire in Iran's second largest city, Mashhad, in the northeast of the country. The 58-year-old Raeisi ran against President Hassan Rouhani, in 2013 presidential election, but lost, despite being supported by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and other conservative allies of the Supreme Leader. A former presidential candidate and current head of the powerful and well-funded Astan-e Qods Razavi charity foundation, Ebrahim Raisi, 57, was a popular figure among conservatives and hardliners. Ebrahim Raisi co-chaired the Tehran "Death Commission" during the 1988 massacre of political prisoners. Beginning in the early 1990s, Raisi attended religious classes taught by Khamenei for a period of 14 years.
Hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi, a harsh critic of the West and the standard bearer of Iran's security hawks, drew on economic discontent to mount an unexpectedly strong challenge to pragmatist Hassan Rouhani in the 19 May 2017 presidential elections. A protege of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi has focused his campaign on the economy, visiting rural areas and small villages, promising the poor housing, jobs and more welfare benefits. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and the Basij, a volunteer militia under the Guards' command, took steps to promote the candidacy of his main rival, hard-line cleric Ebrahim Raisi. Some analysts saw Raisi's presidential bid as a test run for a man who could be groomed to take over as Khamenei's successor.
By 2024 Raisi was the most qualified individual in the Islamic Republic to chair a succession—having presided over two branches of government. No other cleric had such a resume. Nevertheless, Raisi was not the only candidate for the chairmanship of the Assembly of Experts.
Ebrahim Raisi succeeded another conservative cleric, Sadeq Amoli Larijani, as judiciary chief on 09 March 2019. Iranian media had predicted the move since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promoted Larijani to the role of head of Iran’s Expediency Council in December. On 10 March 2019 Iran appointed a new head of the judiciary — Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline cleric who was a protege of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The appointment was seen as weakening the political influence of President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate. Iranian reformists tried to soften some of their past criticisms of Raisi. It said those reformists, who have been struggling to maintain relevance in a conservative-dominated system, would see their political influence further diminished if they opened a new battle against Raisi, one it said they “certainly” would not win.
By appointing a conservative ally to head the influential Expediency Council, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to have made a move to strengthen the hard-line camp and weaken the moderates -- and also may have cleaned up his line of succession. Ebrahim Raisi succeeded another conservative cleric, Sadeq Amoli Larijani, as judiciary chief. Iranian media had predicted the move since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promoted Larijani to the role of head of Iran’s Expediency Council on 31 December 2018 Majlis (parliament), replacing Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who died that day.
Hailing from the powerful Larijani family, Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli-Larijani was well-placed to take over from Khamenei. Larijani's elder brothers also hold key posts in the Islamic republic. Ali Larijani was Iran's Majlis (parliament) speaker and Mohammad Javad Larijani headed the Judiciary's human rights council. The family was from Pardameh village in Larijan, about 70 kilometers from Amol in the Mazandaran province. Their father stayed in Najaf, Iraq for a long time, where the first three brothers were born in Najaf and two other brothers were born in Qom, Iran.
When appointing the head of the judicial system, Khamenei described Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani as the “virtuous young cleric” who had been inspired by the most prominent figures in the religious seminary in Qom. After Amoli Larijani's appointment to head the judiciary, there was speculation in political circles that he was among the candidates with a high chance to be elected as the next supreme leader. Sadeq Amoli-Larijani was accused of committing crimes against humanity, especially his ratification of death sentences against political prisoners, minors and women, after closed trials that lack the minimum fair trial conditions, according to human rights organizations. He was also accused of opening 63 secret accounts to collect all financial guarantees from those being prosecuted, which are about 40 million citizens. These accounts reportedly make him an estimated profit of about 300 million dollars.
When Mohammad Khatami purged the country's intelligence ministries during the first term of his presidency (1997-2001), the judiciary established its own intelligence service, which was only accountable to Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani (the head of the judiciary since 2009) and the supreme leader. Regarding judicial corruption, Payvand News reported on 9 December 2010 that: "Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani has said it was not fair to say that all judges are corrupt. Larijani made the remarks on Wednesday in response to an MP, who recently said that all judges receive bribes. We do not deny the existence of corruption... because humans are fallible, but it was not fair to say all judges are corrupt and that lawmaker should present his evidence to prove his claims, he added… We know that there are some problems in the judicial system, but the Judiciary and the administration should not be undermined," he stated.‘
In July 2011 the head of Iran‘s judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, publicly endorsed the IRGC‘s greater influence in the political sphere, saying that it was more than a military force. The IRGC was thought to be actively involved in the postelection crackdown, reportedly organizing attacks on university students, engaging in violence against peaceful protesters, and torturing prisoners. On 16 May 2016, the Tasnim news agency quoted Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli-Larijani as saying the Bahai Faith “is a threat to Iran’s national security” and that relatives of senior clerics who socialized with Bahais “damage the norms.”
Persons and entities designated January 12, 2018 following repression of December 2017-January 2018 protests included Judiciary head Sadeq Amoli Larijani (the highest-ranking Iranian official sanctioned by the United States). On 12 January 2018, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated 14 individuals and entities in connection with serious human rights abuses and censorship in Iran, and support to designated Iranian weapons proliferators. "OFAC designated Sadegh Amoli Larijani pursuant to E.O. 13553 for being an official of the Government of Iran who was responsible for or complicit in, or responsible for ordering, controlling, or otherwise directing, the commission of serious human rights abuses against persons in Iran or Iranian citizens or residents. As head of Iran's Judiciary, Sadegh Amoli Larijani has administrative oversight over the carrying out of sentences in contravention of Iran's international obligations, including the execution of individuals who were juveniles at the time of their crime and the torture or cruel, inhumane, and degrading treatment or punishment of prisoners in Iran, including amputations."
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on December 30, 2018, appointed the head of the judiciary, Sadeq Amoli Larijani, a head of the Expediency Council, to replace Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who died about a week earlier. The regime was trying, through this move, to send a defiant message that it is determined to press forward, despite the continuing internal protests, in pursuing its a repressive policy, Iran’s interventionist roles in the Middle East, supporting terrorist organizations and developing its missile and nuclear programs. In parallel with the announcement of his appointment as head of the Expediency Council, Larijani was keen to reaffirm his loyalty to Khamenei and his strong alignment with the Supreme Leader’s hardline policy. This attitude was crystal clear in in Larijani’s fierce criticism of the internal protests, warning that they could descend into a “new sedition”, in reference to the political crisis that broke out in Iran in 2009 in the aftermath of the Green Movement’s objection to the results of the presidential election. the Green Movement claimed voter fraud in the elections which resulted in former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad winning a second term. Khamenei appointed hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi as chief justice before the official term of Amoli came to an end. Amoli's enemies weren't finished, and seemingly planned to eject him and his whole family out of power. "I am the treasury of the secrets about [the charges] of [officials] and sons of officials and figures, and today I am still paying the price of standing up to them," said Amoli in his open letter to Yazdi on 18 August 2019. The 2021 presidential elections paved the path for the abrupt end to the political careers of two influential brothers, Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker, and Amoli Larijani, a former member of the Guardian Council. Ali Larijani ran for president, but he was unexpectedly banned from the election race by the Guardian Council, whose members are appointed by the leader. The deep state feared that Ali Larijani's possible victory in the presidential elections would embolden the Larijanis and once again increase the chance of Amoli Larijani as a successor of Khamenei.
Khamenei was believed to be planning his succession. A report in 2023 indicated that only the chairman of the Assembly of Experts and members of a subcommittee it empaneled that was tasked with the possibility of naming a deputy supreme leader have knowledge of its innerworkings. Since 1989, all chairmen of the Assembly of Experts have been Khamenei loyalists, with the prominent exception of Rafsanjani, who occupied the role from 2007 until 2011 and had more independent stature given his original revolutionary credentials.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
