Conservative Party / Tory Party - 2022 Leader Selection
Boris Johnson finally quit the Tory leadership on 07 July 2022 after an onslaught of ministerial resignations and calls for him to go from senior colleagues – even if he hopes to cling on in Downing Street until October as the Conservatives choose a new leader. While there is no clear favourite, a new poll of party members showed Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is the narrow favourite.
Boris Johnson’s successor in Downing Street will inherit a poisoned chalice. Topping the list of problems, the cost of living crisis vexing the developed world is especially serious in the UK, amid years of dreadful productivity growth and now the fallout from Brexit. One thing Johnson’s critics to his right and left agree on is that his effusive bonhomie was a thin veil in front of a void, leaving him incapable of dealing with Britain’s amplifying troubles. “It’s a job to run away from rather than runs towards,” said Jonathan Tonge, a professor of politics at Liverpool University. “There’s no political headroom and there are no economic goodies to offer.”
The share of young people voting Tory has sunk, endangering the party’s ability to recruit its next generation of supporters: 35 percent of 18-24 year-olds voted Conservative in John Major’s narrow general election victory in 1992; when Johnson won his 2019 landslide, it was with just 21 percent of the vote amongst that demographic. By contrast, 64 percent of over 65s voted Tory in 2019. Most of this age group own their homes and have seen their wealth mount thanks to property-price rises. So the challenge for Johnson’s successor is to solve the housing crisis without alienating its core (older, southern) vote.
Johnson had faced first calls to resign amid accusations of violating COVID-19 regulations in 2020-2021. The situation further deteriorated in July 2022 after it was revealed that the PM had been aware of the claims that MP Christopher Pincher, who was vetted by Johnson himsef as deputy chief whip of the Conservatives, was a sexual predator. This led to dozens of resignations from his Cabinet and eventually forced Johnson to step down both as the prime minister and head of the UK's Conservative Party. He would remain in office until a successor is appointed.
More than 50 ministers and aides, including three cabinet members, quit the government, with resignations continuing to trickle in overnight. The Conservative leader was confronted at various points on Wednesday by members of his cabinet telling him it was time to go, local media said. His reaction was to fire Communities Secretary Michael Gove, reportedly the first to tell him that he must resign for the good of the Tory party and country, with a source close to Johnson telling the BBC that Gove was "a snake".
He could have to make all kinds of decisions. The fact and the truth is that Boris Johnson finds it so painful, so sad and to him so incredible that he was not successful in persuading his own party that he was the best man. He's the one, he says, with the colossal mandate he got back in 2019, the 80 seat majority, the best since 1987 and Margaret Thatcher -- that he got, he thinks, a new mandate when he won (narrowly, it has to be said) a vote of no confidence just a month ago. Many Tories think he's going to further damage the office of prime minister and the Conservative Party.
Some 11 members of the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party have launched bids to replace Boris Johnson as the party’s leader with many pledging lower taxes and a clean start after Johnson’s scandal-ridden premiership. By 10 July 2022, nine members of the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party had so far launched bids to replace Boris Johnson as the party head and next prime minister. The latest announcements came three days after Johnson said he would step down following the resignations of several ministers and other officials in his government in the wake of the latest scandal to mar his tenure. Some additional candidates were still expected to announce. Home Secretary Priti Patel was widely expected to join the fray.
The backbench 1922 Committee announced a timetable for the Tory leadership contest, with chair Sir Graham Brady confirming that the results will be announced on September 5. Candidates for the position of Conservative party leader and Britain's prime minister must secure the nomination of 20 MPs to get on the ballot. According to the committee, the nominations will open and close on July 12. The voting process will kick off on July 13, with the first round of votes. A second ballot will "likely" be held on July 14.
Any candidate must have at least 30 votes in the first round to proceed. As per Sky News' tally 11 Jul 2022, only Sunak and Mordaunt have reached the 20 nominations threshold. Meanwhile, only Sunak has reached more than 30 to get through to the first round. The field would whittled down to just two candidates by July 21. The contest would then go to a postal ballot with a new party leader, who would then become prime minister, expected to be chosen by September. They would have the option to call a snap election.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, 52, with Ladbrokes odds of 3/1, was the favourite in next Prime Minister odds. Wallace was the narrow favourite in a crowded field of potential candidates to replace Boris Johnson, a YouGov poll among Conservative party members showed. Wallace has 13 percent of support, one point ahead of junior trade minister Penny Mordaunt. Best known among international observers for his robust stance in support of Ukraine against the Russian invasion, Wallace was considered a Johnson loyalist. Wallace had narrowly topped some recent polls of Tory grassroots' preferred next leader due to his role in the Ukraine crisis. The former army officer and Johnson ally has downplayed wanting to lead the party but is seen as straight-talking and competent. But many perceive Wallace as having much more pro-European instincts than Johnson, especially seeing as he spent years as a close aide to Ken Clarke, the famously Europhile former chancellor, when Clarke was lord chancellor in David Cameron's premiership.
Wallace said 09 July 2022 "After careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family, I have taken the decision not to enter the contest for leadership of the Conservative Party. I am very grateful to all my parliamentary colleagues and wider members who have pledged support. It has not been an easy choice to make, but my focus is on my current job and keeping this great country safe. I wish the very best of luck to all candidates and hope we swiftly return to focusing on the issues that we are all elected to address."
Rishi Sunak, the UK's first Hindu chancellor of the exchequer, with Ladbrokes odds of 9/2, was in third place in the YouGov poll among Conservative party members showed with 10 percent support and was until recently the bookmakers' favourite. But his prospects were dented by questions over his private wealth and family's tax arrangements. His resignation saw him return as one of the bookies' frontrunners for the top job. Sunak, 42, has a high profile on social media, and won plaudits for shoring up the economy during the pandemic. But his refusal initially to authorise more support over a surging cost-of-living crisis has hurt his popularity. During the coronavirus crisis Sunak was hailed for his generous furlough scheme to protect jobs during lockdowns.
But Sunak’s popularity diminished in April when he was fined for Partygate lockdown breaches, like Johnson – and when it was revealed that his multi-millionaire wife Akshata Murthy has non-domiciled status, meaning she did not pay tax on income earned overseas while residing in the UK. Akshata Murty is an heir to the Indian IT company Infosys. He has also been attacked over rising taxes after last year’s budget put the UK on course for its biggest tax burden since the 1950s.
Sunak was the second minister to resign in protest over Johnson’s poor handling of sexual harassment allegations against Conservative legislator Christopher Pincher. He launched his campaign a day after Johnson’s resignation, and notched up more than 30 endorsements from members of Parliament over the weekend, according to the Times newspaper. In his campaign video, Sunak promised to confront the country’s difficult economic backdrop with “honesty, seriousness and determination”.
Penny Mordaunt, 49, with Ladbrokes odds of 7/1 is the first woman to have been UK defence secretary and is currently a junior trade minister. The Royal Navy reservist is seen as likely to run but considered a long shot. A strong Brexit supporter and key figure in the 2016 "Leave" campaign, she has been tipped as a potential unity candidate who could draw support from the Conservative party's warring factions. Mordaunt had held several ministerial positions. Mordaunt is a staunch Brexiteer best known for her brief tenure as Theresa May's defence secretary in 2019. Johnson demoted her to the backbenches after she backed his rival Jeremy Hunt during the summer 2019 Tory leadership contest. The former Navy reservist announced her bid for the top job in a video on social media, saying “our leadership has to change. It needs to become a little less about the leader, a lot more about the ship”.
Tom Tugendhat, a former army officer, 49, with Ladbrokes odds of 8/1, is a prominent backbencher who chairs parliament's influential Foreign Affairs Committee. Tugendhat has indicated he will stand in any leadership contest but there is no love lost between him and Johnson loyalists. A hawk on China, he has been critical of the government's handling of the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Tugendhat is the chair of parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a former soldier who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has never served in the cabinet and has been a regular critic of Johnson. Writing on Twitter after announcing his campaign, he said: “Trust in our politics and our party is collapsing. We need a clean start.”
Liz Truss, Foreign Secretary, 46, with Ladbrokes odds of 10/1 following Johnson’s resignation. Truss is popular among Conservative party members, liked for her outspokenness and willingness to go on the political attack. But that has also stoked questions about her judgement, for instance when in February she encouraged Britons to fight in Ukraine. Critics say her leadership posturing is too overt. When she headed the Department for International Trade, some MPs dubbed it the "Department for Instagramming Truss" because of her prolific output on the social media site. Truss announced her candidacy in the right-wing Daily Telegraph newspaper, saying she had “a clear vision of where we need to be, and the experience and resolve to get us there”. Truss promised to cut taxes from “day one”.
Sajid Javid, with Ladbrokes odds of 11/1 following Johnson’s resignation, also quit as health secretary, had previously resigned as finance minister in 2020. The 52-year-old is the son of a Pakistani immigrant bus driver who went on to become a high-flying banker. Like Sunak, he also faces questions about his personal wealth and tax affairs. Javid was the first cabinet minister to resign in protest over accusations that Johnson misled the public regarding what he knew about the allegations against Pincher. Javid is a proponent of the free market and a former banker. “The next Prime Minister needs integrity, experience, and a tax-cutting plan for economic growth. That’s why I’m standing,” he wrote on Twitter on Sunday.
Jeremy Hunt, former foreign and health secretary with Ladbrokes odds of 14/1 following Johnson’s resignation, 55, lost to Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest, when he branded himself as the "serious" alternative. Hunt sent a thinly veiled campaign message for a new leadership bid last month, arguing that under Johnson "we are no longer trusted by the electorate" and "we are set to lose the next general election". But the fluent Japanese speaker lacks Johnson's charisma. His pre-pandemic record as health secretary was recently savaged by a Johnson ally. Hunt finished second to Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest to replace Prime Minister Theresa May and has said he would offer a more serious and less controversial style of leadership after the turmoil of Johnson’s premiership. He has sought to differentiate himself as the only major candidate to date who did not serve in Johnson’s government.
Steve Baker, with Ladbrokes odds of 20/1 following Johnson’s resignation, told the BBC that he is considering running in the leadership race to replace Boris Johnson. "People do know that I am a leader, I have led and they know that the Conservative membership routinely puts me in the top 10 for next leader."
Dominic Raab, Deputy prime minister and justice secretary with Ladbrokes odds of 33/1 following Johnson’s resignation, 48, led the country when Johnson was in intensive care in hospital with Covid-19 in 2020. The former lawyer and karate black belt is seen as a reliable ally. But his move to justice from the post of foreign secretary was seen as a demotion after he initially failed to cut short a holiday as the Afghan capital Kabul fell to the Taliban.
British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has served as secretary of state for transport since Johnson took office in 2019. He was first elected to parliament in 2005. He has been a loyal defender of Johnson. He wrote on Twitter announcing his campaign: “I plan. I communicate. I campaign. I deliver. And I can win an election for our party in tough times”. He too has promised tax cuts.
Nadhim Zahawi was appointed finance minister last week after Sunak resigned. He was previously the education minister. A former refugee from Iraq and co-founder of the polling company YouGov before entering parliament in 2010, Zahawi has said he will run on a platform of lowering taxes for individuals, families and businesses.
Kemi Badenoch was elected to parliament for the first time in 2017 and has held junior ministerial roles as Equalities Minister. She has never served in the cabinet. Writing in The Times, she said: “Without change the Conservative Party, Britain, and the western world will continue to drift.”
Attorney General for England and Wales Suella Braverman was heavily criticised by lawyers after the government sought to break international law over post-Brexit trade rules in Northern Ireland. A staunch Brexit supporter, she resigned in protest from her post as junior minister in the Brexit department under May, saying the former prime minister’s Brexit deal did not go far enough in breaking ties with Europe. Her campaign so far has focused on further breaking ties with European institutions, including the European Convention on Human Rights.
Rehman Chishti, who has worked as a trade envoy for the UK, announced his plan to run for the leadership. “It’s about aspirational conservatism, fresh ideas, fresh team for a fresh start taking our great country forward,” the member of Parliament wrote on Twitter.
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