Turkiye - World War III.2
In 24 February 2023 the government of Turkiye stated "we consider the military operation launched by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation against Ukraine unacceptable and reject it. This attack, beyond destroying the Minsk agreements, is a grave violation of international law and poses a serious threat to the security of our region and the world. Believing in the necessity to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries, Türkiye is against changing of borders by use of arms. We call on the Russian Federation to immediately stop this unjust and unlawful act. Our support for the political unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine will continue.
As part of its neutral stance, Ankara also closed its straits to both Russian and NATO warships in alignment with the Montreux Convention, which regulates the status of Turkish channels. With this move, Türkiye helped prevent the spread of the Ukraine war to other areas, particularly in the Black Sea.
In a sign of Turkish shuttle diplomacy, which has featured Ankara’s peace efforts since the beginning of the Russian offensive on Ukraine, on 16-17 March 2022 Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu held back-to-back meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Lviv. Under the auspices of the Turkish foreign ministry, on 29 March 2022 Istanbul hosted peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations.
Within weeks of the conflict breaking out, global food prices had gone up, and many countries were facing a threat of famine as both Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters. Ukraine especially had trouble shipping food grain from its ports after the war broke out.
Türkiye, the UN, Russia, and Ukraine signed a deal in Istanbul on 22 July 2022 to reopen three Ukrainian Black Sea ports for exporting Ukrainian grain stuck due to the war. The deal prompted global praise for Türkiye for its brokering capabilities of the deal between the two warring sides. UN chief Antonia Guterres called it “a beacon of hope” in a desperate world which needs crops more than ever.
On 27 July 2022 Türkiye inaugurated the crucial Istanbul-based Joint Coordination Centre (JCC), which oversees the Black Sea Grain Initiative grain shipment process from Ukraine and Russia through the Black Sea to Türkiye’s straits, making essential crops reach world markets and being a lifeline to humanity. Due to the Ukraine conflict, in which Russia blocked Ukrainian Black Sea ports to prevent the country from exporting its grain, the global community suffered from food shortages and high prices. But Western sanctions, which have given Russia a difficult time selling its grain, also contributed to increasing food shortages.
On the other hand, Türkiye, through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was able to persuade both sides to open the JCC, allowing the warring countries to export their crops to world markets to ease food shortages and skyrocketing prices. Since the opening of the JCC, many ships have carried millions of tonnes of grain from Ukraine and Russia to countries that are in desperate need.
Türkiye did not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea in an illegitimate referendum in 2014 and has emphasized its strong support to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty on every occasion. In accordance with this stance adopted in 2014, Türkiye rejected Russia’s decision to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Herson and Zaphorizhia regions of Ukraine. This decision, which constitutes a grave violation of the established principles of international law, cannot be accepted. Türkiye reiterated support to the resolution of this war, the severity of which keeps growing, based on a just peace that will be reached through negotiations.
In yet another diplomatic breakthrough for the Türkiye-led mediation process, in September 2022 Ukraine and Russia reached an unexpected prisoner exchange deal, which led to the release of over 250 captives – 215 Ukrainians and 55 Russian and pro-Russian fighters. The deal, which also led to the release of 10 foreign nationals from countries like the US and the UK, elicited praise from the international community, with both London and Washington thanking Ankara and Riyadh, which also helped realise the deal.
Speaking at the TRT World Forum in December 2022, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: “While strongly defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity, we opposed fueling tension in the region with irrational policies toward Russia.” He mentioned that he would continue to communicate with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In further signs of Ankara’s balancing act, Türkiye also supplied high-end Bayraktar military drones to enable Ukraine to boost its defences against Russian aggression.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Ankara is ready to contribute to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict through diplomacy, and invited both leaders for a meeting in Türkiye. "Just as I told (Russian President Vladimir) Putin during my Sochi visit, I reminded (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy that we could host the meeting between them," Erdogan told reporters on board the presidential plane following a one-day working visit to Ukraine.
Türkiye and Ukraine signed an agreement 07 July 2023 to enhance cooperation in strategic industries, focusing on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), autonomous systems, motor research and development, production, and maintenance during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's official visit to Türkiye. Following one-on-one and delegation-level meetings between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday, the signing ceremony for the protocol, containing a memorandum of understanding on Cooperation in Strategic Industries between the two countries took place at the Vahdettin Mansion in Istanbul.
Turkey cannot blackmail Russia with the fact that the export of Ukrainian grain will continue without Russian consent, that is, without any deal. Theoretically, there are such options: Turkish warships can escort Ukrainian ships from Odessa . But in practice, this would mean balancing on the verge of a military clash between Russia and Turkey, because the ships of the NATO country would be in the zone of teh Russian military special operation. Moscow has warned more than once about the inadmissibility of the participation of the armed forces of NATO countries in the hostilities in Ukraine, and with all the pumping of Western weapons, no one in the alliance is ready for direct participation. The humanitarian nature of such a Turkish mission is not a justification for the use of armed forces in the current conditions - and Ankara is well aware of this.
Erdogan will try to negotiate with Putin on the resumption of the deal - both in order to maintain Turkey's extremely advantageous position as a trade and logistics intermediary between Russia and the West, and to strengthen his own position in the new round of big bargaining with the West (which is taking place against the backdrop of the issue of admission to NATO Sweden ). Russia, for its part, will continue the complex and necessary game with Turkey, in which many topics are closely tied - from economic to geopolitical, from gas pipelines to Syria.
Stressing that the global system is facing two conventional wars simultaneously, all of which have global repercussions, Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said 30 November 2024 that Türkiye is “just at the centre of these wars.” He said "The stability in the Middle East, South Caucasus and the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the Black Sea is a primary goal for us". Fidan said that the international system is facing political, military, economic, and environmental challenges, emphasising that humanity is going through a critical geopolitical period in response to these challenges.
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