Black Sea
Sitting at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, the Black Sea has been fought over for centuries, noted Ukrainian Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko. Unresolved crises of geopolitical significance, the processes of destabilization in the Black Sea region and the Eastern Mediterranean, international terrorism, migratory pressures, the conflicts in the Middle East and Asia continue to expose to risk security in the region. Russia has steadily upgraded its military posture and matched it with an uncompromising and assertive information campaign. Most Russia experts consider that Moscow is doing this primarily in pursuit of its strategic objective of great power status and the establishment of zones of privileged influence.
Russia has enlarged its footprint around the strategically vital waterway by directly or indirectly seizing territory from Georgia in 2008 and from Ukraine in 2014. The Kremlin wants to prevent the Black Sea from becoming a "NATO lake" and aims to ensure that no new East-West energy corridor can bypass Russia or weaken its grip on oil and gas exports. Moscow has become increasingly aggressive, exploiting regional conflicts in Georgia and Transnistria, and seizing the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea to boost its military presence and advance dominance in the region. The Russian military has also been using the Black Sea for naval operations in the Eastern Mediterranean in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and to assist the warlord Gen. Khalifa Haftar in Libya.
Russian naval forces sought to close the neighboring Sea of Azov to Ukrainian cargo vessels, disrupting unimpeded access and breaching a 2003 maritime treaty between Moscow and Kyiv. In November 2018, Russia seized three Ukrainian naval vessels in the strait, holding their 24 seafarers until a controversial swap eight months later that saw Kyiv hand over five riot police officers accused of killing protesters during the 2014 Maidan uprising.
Speaking at Britain's Chatham House in 2019, Col. Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy director of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency, said all Black Sea countries should be worried about Russia's military buildup. He noted that before the 2014 annexation, Russia had 22 combat aircraft in the region but now has 122, and has boosted its submarine tally from two to seven and warships from 22 to a planned 45 next year.
The Black Sea region is of crucial significance for Europe, being a major crossroads and critical intersection of east-west and south-north corridors. Many experts believe that whoever controls or dominates the Black Sea can easily project power to the European continent, mainly in the Balkans and Central Europe, but also in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as the South Caucasus and the northern Middle East.
The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West. The region experienced two decades of simmering conflicts even before Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russia has used military force against other countries in the region four times from 2008 to 2019. Moscow utilized informational,economic, energy, and clandestine instruments to advance its goals. Other states in the region have distinct and sometimes conflicting interests that they want to protect, which has made development of a coherent Western strategy to address Russia’s diverse challenges elusive.
In the five years since Moscow annexed the Ukrainian peninsula, Russia has turned the Black Sea region into a "military fortress," say Western officials and independent military analysts, boosting military personnel on the ground and developing air, naval and coastal defense systems. "The ongoing and accelerated militarization of the Crimean Peninsula and its surrounding waters has in fact created a new security reality in the Black Sea and the wider Mediterranean region," Ukrainian envoy Yevhenii Tsymbaliuk told a 14 January 2021 meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
A credible military deterrent posture need not match Russia militarily. Deployment ofadvanced air and coastal defense systems in Romania and Bulgaria to counter Russianoffensive missile threats, expanded NATO exercises, and continued Western assistanceto Ukraine and Georgia in the development of their national defense capabilities couldenhance regional deterrence.
The imbalance of forces in the Black Sea basin is increasing, being observed sharply increasing the potential and rapid modernization of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As early as 2010, the Russian State Armaments Programme prioritised the Black Sea Fleet for a significant capability upgrade. In 2015 and 2016, the Black Sea Fleet received the first of six planned upgraded KILO-class submarines and the first of six planned Admiral Grigorivich class frigates. They added to the sophisticated Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) system with their long-range anti-ship missiles as well as the long-range land-attack cruise missiles.
From 2015 to 2019, three new frigates were received pr.11356, six submarines with cruise missiles pr.636.3 ("Kilo II") and more than ten anti-sabotage and patrol boats. In parallel with the acquisition of warships, the fleet was modernized with two new generation tugs, modular diving platforms and other auxiliary vessels.
In addition to all the above, emphasis should be placed on the shipbuilding program of the Russian Federation, as from the planned 34 platforms for the Black Sea Fleet, 2019 16 ships (three frigates and thirteen corvettes armed with long-rangecruise missiles "Caliber" and "Onyx") were in different phases of construction and factory tests.
At the same time, the Republic of Turkey is also implementing programs for new capabilities of its Navy, which are adequate to the modern specifics of military operations. Implementation of projects for construction of a universal landing party is underway (type “Anadolu”), corvettes-12 (type “MILGEM”) and submarines-6 (type U-214-?N / 1800 ”), and Turkish perspective models of anti-ship missiles“ SOM ”(Stand-off"Missile") and "ATMACA", providing a large maximum shooting distance, are in different test stages.
With the thus created perspective for development in the region in the field of naval component, Romania has also declared its intention to modernize its navy. In accordance with the approved plans for the development of the aircraft until 2026, the Romanian Navy expects to acquire four multifunctional corvettes (“SIGMA” project), up to two divisional kits long-range coastal anti-ship missile systems, as well as modernize two frigates (type "22") and three missile corvettes (type "Tarantula"). Intentions to acquire up to two small submarines have also been announced. Implementation of these plans, the strike capabilities of the Romanian Navy will increase tangibly and will provide both the coastal defense of the Romanian coast and restraining functions in the north - western part of the Black Sea, with regard to the actions of ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia.
The increased migration flows due to the crisis in the Middle East have significant impact on maritime security in the region. Isolated cases of illegal trafficking in human beings in the Black Sea is a sign of an impending increase in use on maritime corridors for illegal immigration, especially after tightening controls on land border. All this determines the growing importance of the effective implementation of the specific tasks of the patrol ships of the Navy of the Republic of Bulgaria, as well as filling the deficit of critical capabilities for the Navy.
An important component of NATO’s strengthened deterrence and defence posture is military presence in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Alliance territory. Allies implemented the 2016 Warsaw Summit decisions to establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. At the 2016 Summit in Warsaw, Allies agreed to develop a tailored forward presence in the south-eastern part of Alliance territory. On land, this presence is built around the Romanian-led multinational brigade in Craiova. In the air, several Allies have reinforced Romania’s and Bulgaria’s efforts to protect NATO airspace.
NATO is also developing a number of additional measures to increase its presence in the Black Sea region. Specific measures for a strengthened NATO maritime and air presence in the region are being implemented, with a number of Allies contributing forces and capabilities.
By 2021 The US Navy, along with NATO partners, had dramatically increased a maritime presence in the Black Sea, part of a strategy to emphasize that Russian militarization of these waters since the 2014 annexation of Crimea will not go unchallenged. In February 2021 the USS Porter, a guided missile destroyer, entered the waters to join the USS Donald Cook and a refueling ship, the USNS Laramie, in the largest deployment of the US Navy in the Black Sea since 2017.
Russia responded to the Western exercises, dispatching a Bastion coastal defense missile system to Crimea and deploying the Admiral Makarov frigate, which has already tried to disrupt NATO training maneuvers by locking onto air targets and jamming electronic communications.
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