Sweden NATO Relations
Sweden on 07 March 2024 formally joined NATO as the 32nd member of the transatlantic military alliance, ending decades of post-World War II neutrality as concerns about Russian aggression in Europe have spiked following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Just before 5 pm on Boxing Day 26 December 2023, the announcement came from the Turkish Foreign Affairs Committee that they said yes to Sweden's NATO application. Now it remained that the parliament also approves Sweden as a member. But how fast – or slow – that process will be was unclear. When the 26 members (27 including Erdogan) met on Boxing Day, 10 points were to be discussed, the one concerning Sweden was last on the list. Just before 17:00 Swedish time, the announcement came that the application was granted and the matter was forwarded to the National Assembly for the final decision.
"We welcome that the foreign affairs committee in Turkey approved Sweden's NATO application. The next step is for parliament to vote on the issue. We look forward to becoming a member of NATO", writes Foreign Minister Tobias Billström (M) in a first comment to SVT Nyheter.
However, the timetable is still unclear, but according to the chairman of the foreign affairs committee, one should not expect a hasty vote. If Parliament delays, the National Assembly will have the opportunity to wait for a go-ahead from the US on the sale of the F-16 fighter jet to Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently stated that he and US President Joe Biden discussed a deal where Turkey says yes to Sweden's application in exchange for the US saying yes to the F-16. In addition, it also remains for Hungary to approve Sweden as a NATO member, something that is expected to happen around the same time as Turkey makes a definitive announcement.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 23 October 2023 signed Sweden's NATO accession protocol and submitted it to parliament, according to Türkiye’s Communications Directorate. The Swedish Prime Ministry welcomed Türkiye's announcement. "Parliamentary procedures will now commence. We look forward to becoming a member of NATO," the ministry said. Türkiye previously approved Finland's membership to NATO but had said it was waiting for Sweden to abide by a trilateral memorandum signed in June 2022 in Madrid to address Ankara's security concerns.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on 10 July 2023 to forward Sweden's bid to join the military alliance to the Turkish parliament. But Erdogan had introduced a new condition for approving Sweden’s membership in NATO, calling on European countries to “open the way” for Turkey to join the European Union. It was the first time that Erdogan linked his country's ambition to join the EU with Sweden's efforts to become a NATO member. “Turkey has been waiting at the door of the European Union for over 50 years now, and almost all of the NATO member countries are now members of the European Union,” Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul. “I am making this call to these countries that have kept Turkey waiting at the gates of the European Union for more than 50 years.... Come and open the way for Turkey’s membership in the European Union. When you pave the way for Turkey, we’ll pave the way for Sweden as we did for Finland”.
Membership talks between the EU and Ankara began in 2005 but were put on hold indefinitely in 2016 after years of democratic backsliding, human rights abuses, and provocations under Erdogan.
Asked about Erdogan’s comments, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he supports Turkey’s ambition to join the EU but noted that it wasn’t among the conditions listed in an agreement that Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed at last year’s NATO summit in Madrid. Stoltenberg reiterated that Sweden had met those conditions and said he thinks it is “still possible to have a positive decision” on the country's pending membership during this week's summit in Lithuania.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sweden's push to join NATO should not be connected to Turkey's stalled EU membership bid. "Sweden meets all the requirements for NATO membership," Scholz told reporters in Berlin. "The other question is one that is not connected with it and that is why I do not think it should be seen as a connected issue." The White House said that the US has always supported Turkey's European Union membership aspirations and continues to do so, adding that those discussions are a matter between Turkey and the bloc's 27 members.
“Erdogan has introduced new demands and moved the target repeatedly throughout this process, but trying to put pressure on the EU over a NATO matter is rather spectacular,” said Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University. “However, I think that we should interpret his remarks with caution for now. They could signal everything from setting the stage for a face-saving OK to Sweden, to an attempt to sabotage the NATO enlargement process by raising impossible demands,” Levin added. “What can be said is that if he were to actually condition Swedish NATO accession on a reboot of the Turkish EU accession process, then Sweden is unlikely to become a NATO ally anytime soon.”
On 21 January 2023, far-right provocateur Rasmus Paludan travelled from Denmark to Sweden to set the holy book of Islam alight in what appeared to be a one-man show in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm. The act sent shockwaves across large parts of the Muslim world, sparking mass protests in Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, and of course in Turkey, where anti-Sweden rallies grew so violent that the Swedish embassy in Ankara was briefly forced to close. Politically, the Koran-burning was nothing short of a disaster for Sweden. For months on end, Sweden had tried to appease Turkey in exchange for its all-important ratification of its NATO membership application. Ankara’s demands had grown from extradition requests of “Kurdish terrorists” in the name of Turkish national security to calling for Sweden to crack down on anti-Turkey protests in Stockholm and to fire a minister.
There was something odd about the protest that did not sit quite right with outside observers. Firstly, it was the timing – it was clearly a particularly sensitive moment in Sweden's NATO application. Secondly, Paludan had travelled from Denmark to Sweden with the sole purpose of staging the event. Finland’s former foreign minister Alexander Stubb immediately blamed it on Russia. “This should come as no surprise. Russia seems to be behind the burning of the Quran [Koran] in Sweden. This is what hybrid warfare of a rogue state looks like. In today's world everything can be weaponised,” he said.
Paludan claimed he had been contacted by two Swedish far-right activists who had convinced him to do it, and that one of them, Chang Frick, had even paid for his demonstration permit. Frick, who regularly does media spots for the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), previously contributed to Ruptly, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned media Russia Today. According to DN Frick has travelled to Russia on several occasions in recent years.
Swedish investigative programme Kalla Fakta (Cold Facts), revealed that Paludan too has Russian connections. According to the programme he has been connected to at least six people linked to the private Russian paramilitary Wagner Group via Russian social media network VKontakte.
The 30 NATO allies signed off on the accession protocols for Sweden and Finland on 05 July 2022, sending the membership bids of the two nations to the alliance capitals for legislative approvals, which were expected to take betewen 6 and 12 months. Both countries formally confirmed their willingness and ability to meet the political, legal and military obligations and commitments of NATO membership. Canada became the first country to ratify the Accession Protocols of Finland and Sweden to join NATO. The move further increased Russia's strategic isolation in the wake of its invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February. Sweden adds maritime and air capabilities which now, with NATO, have transformed Baltic and Nordic security (and secured the entire Baltic Sea), reducing the chances of any Russian adventurism to the point of implausibility.
Sweden’s ruling Social Democratic Party announced its support for the country’s NATO membership bid, following a similar move by the Finnish government. In a statement published on 15 May 2022, the Social Democrats pledged “to work for Sweden to apply for membership in NATO.” However, the party leadership stressed that if the application were successful, Sweden would stand “against the deployment of nuclear weapons and permanent bases on Swedish territory.”
Turkey had earlier expressed its objections to Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calling the two Nordic countries “guesthouses for terrorist organizations.” He was referring to the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Front (DHKP/C), which have been outlawed in his country. NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana, however, said he is sure the bloc will be able to overcome Turkey’s reservations.
Amid these debates surrounding Sweden and NATO, the name of a single MP – Amineh Kakabaveh – has come up, as she is a key figure upholding the robustness of these ties. The Social Democratic Party's precondition for Magdalena Andersson's election as premier was the "agreement" it made with independent MP Amineh Kakabaveh to help the YPG/PKK. A former Peshmerga fighter, Kakabaveh entered the country as a refugee in 1991 and secured a place in the Riksdag in 2008. Kakabaveh had served as an independent member of the Riksdag, Sweden’s national legislature, since her expulsion from the Left Party in 2019, due to “seriously” harming confidence of the party through her views and acts. But Kakabahveh has been a parliamentarian since 2008, and has a track record of working to influence Swedish policymaking for a much more favorable attitude towards PKK.
The most high-profile act in this regard has been her laying down Sweden’s support to PKK/YPG as the condition of endorsing the government-formation under the premiership of Magdalena Andersson. In other words, her pro-YPG/PKK line — she has enjoyed a seat in the Riksdag thanks to the unwavering votes of the pro-PKK network in Sweden — granted her the coveted ‘kingmaker’ role in the latest government formation process in Sweden. With this, Kakabaveh obtained an opportunity to go beyond her marginal political outlook and became influential in determining Sweden’s national and foreign policy.
On 07 June 2022 Sweden’s justice minister narrowly survived a no confidence vote in parliament over surging crime. The ballot threatened to topple Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s minority government. But the key move that saved the government came from independent, Kurdish Iranian-born lawmaker Amineh Kakabaveh, who’s a problem for Turkey. After Kakabaveh abstained, there were still 174 votes against Justice Minister Mogan Johansson one short of the required 175.
The source of Stockholm’s complacency for years was that it was Türkiye’s problem; it did not directly pose a terrorist threat against Sweden. The PKK is a formidable force to be reckoned with in Stockholm. Even mainstream politics is incapable of weaning itself off paying tribute to PKK. The Social Democratic Party was the very political force conditioning the premiership of Andersson on Sweden’s support for YPG/PKK due to its deal with Kakabaveh. Leaders of the Social Democratic Party made a joint public statement with Kakabaveh in which they expressed how much they shared a common vision with YPG/PKK on Syria and vowed to deepen Sweden’s relations with YPG/PKK.
Sweden had a minority government led by the country’s first female PM, Magdalena Andersson. The country faced general elections on 11 September 2022, and a fragmented political map makes predictions difficult. A poll, commissioned and published on 11 February by the newspaper close to the Social Democratic Party, Aftonbladet, showed that the Social Democrats continued to be the country’s biggest party with 28.2% support. The new Prime Minister would likely be the Chair of the Moderate Party, Ulf Kristersson, a strong advocate for Sweden’s NATO membership. POLITICO Poll of Polls on 25 May 2022 showed the Social Democrats with 32%.
Political leaders in Sweden and Finland gave signals that the two traditionally neutral Nordic countries might move closer to seeking NATO membership in the face of Russian aggression in the region. The leader of Sweden's second-biggest opposition party, the Sweden Democrats, told the daily Svenska Dagbladet in an interview published on 09 April 2022 that his party would favor membership should neighbor Finland apply to join NATO.
If the Sweden Democrats do change their stance from opposition to support of NATO membership, it would mean a swing to a parliamentary majority in favor of Sweden joining the alliance. Svenska Dagbladet quoted Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson as saying in an interview that if Finland applied, "my ambition is to go to the party council with a request that we change our mind." "What's changed now is that Finland is very clearly moving toward a NATO membership, and there are many indications this may happen in the near future. That, and the fact Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, is completely alone, has made me turn," Akesson said. After a recent poll showed a majority of Swedes for the first time in favor of joining NATO, the nationalist Sweden Democrats party said that it was reviewing its stance.
Sweden’s government does not plan to hold a referendum if its parliament decides to proceed with an application for NATO membership, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said 28 April 2022. Andersson said that a referendum was a “bad idea”. “I don’t think it is an issue that is suitable for a referendum,” she told reporters.
Although Sweden is not a member of NATO, the government and most of the defense and security establishment understands the essential role NATO has played in guaranteeing a Europe "whole, free and at peace." Sweden has taken part in NATO's Partnership for Peace since 1994, and it participated in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia under NATO command.
On 15 February 2006 Foreign Minister Laila Freivalds outlined the Social Democratic government's priorities during the annual plenary foreign policy session of parliament, sparking pointed exchanges with the opposition as each side sought to lay down pre-election markers. Sweden's relationship to NATO and the US were prominently featured by both Freivalds and opposition figures. Freivalds reiterated the Government of Sweden's approach of not participating in military alliances, while the Moderates and Liberals called for a discussion of NATO membership.
Foreign Minister Laila Freivalds presented 17 February 2006 the annual statement of Swedish foreign policy to the parliament. Key points included a restatement of Sweden's policy of "non-participation in military alliances." Freivalds made a virtue of cooperative non-membership: "We value our cooperation with NATO, but see no reason for Sweden to join NATO. Non-participation in military alliances gives us both the independence our international commitments need and the opportunity to participate in international cooperation for peace and security." Freivalds challenged the opposition parties to present their views on NATO membership during the debate, seeking to highlight differences among the opposition members of the Alliance for Sweden.
Each of the four opposition parties responded separately. Liberal Cecilia Wigstrom said Sweden's fence-sitting role in regard to NATO was not acceptable - Sweden should drop neutrality and join NATO. During later debate, in response to Freivald's request for party representatives to state clearly their stance on NATO, Center Party Agne Hansson said there was an understanding among the opposition that NATO would not be raised unless there was a broad consensus. The opposition Alliance for Sweden (Moderates, Liberals, Christian Democrats, and Center) made much of differences of views regarding Sweden's relations to the EU among the governing Social Democrats and their Left Party and Green supporters, while Freivalds highlighted differences among the Alliance for Sweden parties in terms of support for NATO membership. The Government of Sweden and its supporters were more critical of Israel than were the Alliance members. Freivalds said Sweden hoped to continue to provide development support to the Palestinian areas. Freivalds noted during the debate, in response to a question, that she would be meeting soon with Secretary Rice, and intended to raise human rights issues with her.
Social Democrat Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee Urban Ahlin said Sweden could work with NATO "on everything except on the basis of Article V." The NATO issue was of interest primarily because of how it would be used by the Social Democrats to underscore division among the opposition, not because the election was, in any sense, a referendum on NATO membership. At the same time, it was clear that the leading parties of the opposition, the Moderates and Liberals, would like to steer Sweden in that direction.
The Christian Democrats had a more nuanced, but quite positive view of the US, while the Center party balances itself on the fence as precisely as possible. Support for the Social Democrats runs deep, and is tied to two traditional political pillars: military non-alignment and support for the welfare state. By underscoring the "risk" of a push to join NATO that would be posed by an opposition victory, Freivalds was playing on fears that the "bourgeois" parties could imperil the Swedish model.
The parliamentary debate provided a preview of foreign policy issues that would be raised in the run-up to the September 2007 parliamentary elections -- although the campaign primarily focused on domestic welfare state issues. The two leading parties of the opposition, Moderates and Liberals, are pro-NATO. Their Christian Democrat and Center Party allies take a more nuanced stance, especially on NATO, with the Center Party living up to its name. The governing Social Democrats are pragmatic on working with NATO, while saying no to membership, but Support for the Social Democrats runs deep, and is tied to two traditional political pillars: military non-alignment and support for the welfare state. By underscoring the "risk" of a push to join NATO that would be posed by an opposition victory, Freivalds was playing on fears that the "bourgeois" parties could imperil the Swedish model.
Of the four parties in the 2007 center-right governing coalition, the Moderates and Liberals were pro-NATO; the Christian Democrats are abandoning their NATO agnosticism; and the Center Party -- the second largest in the coalition -- will go along only if the opposition Social Democrats do. An agreement dating from 2002 binds the main political parties to making no move on joining NATO without consensus of the others. This gives the opposition Social Democrats a veto - which they are exercising. The Swedish public, in general, remains skeptical of NATO, but poll numbers show support for NATO membership slowly rising, especially after Russia's invasion of Georgia. Defense Minister Sten Tolgfors put forward the conditions for a formal NATO application: political consensus (i.e., Social Democrats on board), public acceptance, and not without Finland.
Since 2015 pressure to ditch neutrality and embrace a turn towards NATO mounted for both Sweden and Finland, which had traditionally remained non-aligned. Sweden's Security Service SÄPO stressed a number of times that the biggest threat to the country was Russia. Together with the angry rhetoric and smear campaigns of top-ranking politicians, these fears were largely credited with sparking a heated NATO debate in the traditionally non-aligned Nordic countries.
Sweden's and Finland's foreign politics and security measures are tightly bound. Both countries, however, had boosted their bilateral and international cooperation with NATO and the USA, while at the same time carefully avoiding formally applying for membership.
Rune Lanestrand, former political editor of Älvsborgsposten and a long-standing member of the Central Preparedness Board of Psychological Defense, initiated a petition March 8, 2016 to call off the Memorandum of Understanding, an agreement which was signed between Sweden and NATO in 2014 in hopes of further intimacy.
"The ongoing propaganda proceeds from the alleged need for Sweden to join the war-mongering organization NATO, which instead is being depicted as a peaceful organization. A Swedish membership would only increase tensions around the Baltic. We should not abandon but rather reinforce our neutrality, which was introduced by the first Bernadotte on the Swedish throne, Karl Johan IV, and has given us peace for more than two centuries," Lanestrand told Nyheter Idag 07 April 2016.
"Nowadays, NATO advocates have unleashed one wave of war propaganda after another through major media, radio and television. Russia, which is much less of a threat than returning Daesh terrorists, is being depicted as a major hazard. The intention is to railroad [through] a so-called host country agreement, that would give NATO almost unlimited permission to act on Swedish soil."
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