Polish Politics - Election 2025 President
The presidency, while less powerful than the prime minister position, is still the most coveted political office in Poland. Poland's president commands the military, picks the central bank chief, and may introduce and veto legislation in the country of 38 million people.
Authoritarian populism is an emerging force among voters across Europe and could be the defining political phenomenon of the next decade, according to a November 2016 survey conducted by YouGov. Poland ranked second on the list, with at least 78 percent of voters holding an authoritarian populist viewpoint, right behind Romania with 82 percent.
In October 2023, voters turned out in historic numbers in parliamentary elections, topping even the turnout numbers for the first election in the post-Communist period. National elections were widely reported to be fair and free of irregularities, although the United Right government enjoyed an advantage. According to the preliminary report of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the government exercised undue influence over the use of state resources, public media, and a government-initiated referendum held concurrently that served to amplify the ruling party’s campaign message and give it access to funding and publicity rights outside electoral rules.
The OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), which ran an election observation mission, reported the October 15 parliamentary elections were characterized by record-high voter participation with a wide choice of political options and candidates able to campaign freely. The ODIHR mission found the Supreme Court handled election-related complaints transparently and ruled in favor of greater election observer participation. The ODIHR mission stated the campaign was characterized by the wide use of intolerant, xenophobic, and misogynistic rhetoric.
Human rights issues, including women’s rights, reproductive rights, and the rule of law were among top issues for voters, according to exit polls. Significant human rights issues included credible reports of: serious problems with the independence of the judiciary; substantial barriers to accessing sexual and reproductive health services; and crimes motivated by antisemitism.
The constitution provided for an independent judiciary, although the United Right government continued to implement judiciary-related measures that drew strong criticism from the European Commission, most legal experts, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and international organizations. Those groups also expressed concern the government’s ability to transfer judges without their consent could have been used to punish or deter certain rulings and erode judicial independence. They expressed concern that the same individual held the position of minister of justice and prosecutor general, allowing that individual to have authority for personnel matters for both judges and prosecutors. Legal experts and NGOs criticized this structure for providing insufficient protection from political influence over criminal cases. A minister of justice, appointed in December, created a task force to “restore the rule of law and constitutional order” and began procedures to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, which some observers said would limit future efforts to undermine prosecutorial independence.
NGOs and advocacy groups reported the government did not make significant progress on resolution of Holocaust-era claims, including for foreign citizens. No comprehensive law addressed the return of, or compensation for, private property. Legislation remained in place that significantly restricted the ability of individuals to seek the return of private property seized under Nazi occupation or during the Communist era.
A case alleging the government accessed, collected, or used private communications arbitrarily and employed technology including spyware, specifically Pegasus spyware, continued. On September 8, the Council of Europe issued a provisional report claiming the country used Pegasus spyware to influence political processes in 2019.
According to the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, the government’s use of public insult laws and some politician’s comments created a chilling effect on civil society and media members’ expression in some cases. Critics alleged persistent progovernment bias in state-owned television news broadcasts and other public media.
According to the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, a considerable number of defamation and public insult cases, especially with respect to offending religious sentiment, posed a risk of limiting freedom of expression and stifling free public debate. It assessed the criminal defamation law had a chilling effect on journalists, especially in local media, because local authorities might use the law against journalists. Media owners, particularly of small local independent newspapers, were aware that potentially large fines could threaten the financial survival of their publications.
According to the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights and other civil society actors, there was a continuing problem regarding strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPPs), which were used by public institutions and officials, media companies, politicians, and individuals to suppress opposing opinions. The civil society organizations claimed the use of SLAPPs created an unfriendly environment for media to operate and had a chilling effect on journalists, who might be reluctant to tackle sensitive topics due to fear of being prosecuted.
In April 2023, top government officials criticized Barbara Engelking, a well-known Holocaust historian, who said in a television interview that modern Poles falsified history by exaggerating the amount of help provided to Jews by Poles during World War II. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on social media these were “scandalous words” that had nothing to do with reliable historical knowledge.
On 12 December 2023, Grzegorz Braun, a member of parliament from a small conservative-libertarian opposition party, used a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in a menorah in parliament. The incident was widely denounced as antisemitic in media and social media and by a broad spectrum of political leadership.
President Duda can’t run again after 2 terms in office. By late November 2024, with Poland's presidential election just months away, the field was rapidly taking shape, setting the stage for what promises to be a highly competitive and consequential race. The left-wing political alliance Lewica is expected to announce its candidate in mid-December, with speculation centered on a potential high-profile contender. Other declared candidates include lower-house Speaker Szymon Holownia, representing the Poland 2050 group, Slawomir Mentzen from the far-right Confederation, and Marek Jakubiak of the Free Republicans. Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and candidate of the governing Civic Coalition (KO), and Karol Nawrocki, head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, entered the race.
Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski were set to compete in a primary vote to secure the position of the Civic Coalition's candidate in the next year's presidential election. The final candidate will be announced on December 7 following the primary vote, which Trzaskowski won. The Civic Coalition (KO) is the senior party in the Polish ruling coalition, holding 156 out of 460 seats in the Sejm, the lower house of parliament. Sikorski brings extensive experience in international and defense affairs, which supporters view as a key asset for his candidacy in the presidential race amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Trzaskowski, on the other hand, has been widely viewed as the frontrunner due to his high-profile 2020 presidential bid, when he nearly beat the incumbent president Andrzej Duda, who eventually secured a second term. Rafal Trzaskowski won the primaries and became the Civic Coalition's candidate for president.
The Civic Coalition and Law and Justice have a large advantage over the other parties - according to a poll for "Fakty" TVN 26 November 2024, The Civic Coalition came first in the poll with 35 percent support. According to TVN24, this is 1 percentage point more than in the previous poll conducted on November 12-15. KO is followed by Law and Justice, which received 32% of respondents' votes (an increase of 2 percentage points). Konfederacja came in third with 13% support (no change from the previous survey). The Left and the Third Way were "neck and neck". 7% of respondents would vote for the Left (a drop of 1.2 percentage points); the same number of indications - 7% - was received by Trzecia Droga (Poland 2050 + PSL), which has lost 0.8 percentage points since the last survey. 2 percent indicated that they would vote for another party, while 4 percent chose the answer "don't know/hard to say" or refused to answer.
The Speaker of Poland's parliament and leader of the Poland 2050 movement, which helped form the country's coalition government, officially announced his bid for the 2025 presidential election on 13 Noovember 2024. Szymon Holownia, who previously ran in 2020 and garnered nearly 14% of the vote, said that he is committed to being independent of party influences. Addressing potential criticism about his political affiliations, he added, “Yes, I built Poland 2050 with these wonderful people, but I will remain independent. I won't be taking calls from any prime minister telling me what to do.” Holownia, who finished third in 2020 behind President Andrzej Duda and Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, aims to leverage his independent stance to win the five-year term.
The Law & Justice Party, which until recently ruled Poland, on 26 November 2024 announced 41-year-old Dr. Karol Nawrocki as its candidate in the presidential election in May 2025. Nawrocki is a historian and the first historian in Poland to undertake research on organized crime in the Polish People's Republic in the 1980s. In the period 2007 - 2008, he was a member of the INDEX program Commemorating Poles Murdered and Persecuted by the Nazis for Assisting Jews. Chairman of the Coalition for the Remembrance of the Cursed Soldiers in Gdansk. In 2017–2021 director of the Museum of the Second World War in Gdansk. In 2021 vice-president of the Institute of National Remembrance, from 2021 president of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a Polish state research institute which also serves as a special commission with powers to prosecute and investigate crimes against the Polish nation (mainly Nazi and Communist crimes). Internationally, he’s best known as the man executing the Polish campaign to tear down all public statues and memorial plaques glorifying the Red Army and communism in Poland. In February 2024 he was put on the list of persons wanted by the Russian Federation.
Karol Nawrocki is the son of Ryszard and Elzbieta. After graduating from high school in 2003, he obtained the title of a Personnel Management Specialist from the Post-Graduate School of Business and Administration in Gdansk. He received his master's degree at the Institute of History of the University of Gdansk in 2008. In 2013, Karol Nawrocki obtained his doctoral degree in humanities at the University of Gdansk. His thesis, entitled "Social Resistance to the Communist Authorities in the Elblag Province 1976–1989", was supervised by Grzegorz Berendt, Ph.D. ,D.Sc. In 2023, he completed International MBA in Strategy, Program and Project Management postgraduate studies at Gdansk University of Technology.
In 2020, he made his debut on Radio Gdansk as the author and presenter of a series of broadcasts entitled “Historia Nieoczywista”[Unobvious History]. The author and editor of seven books and a few dozen scholarly and popular press writings devoted to the contemporary history of Poland.
Even before Radoslaw Sikorski officially threw his hat in the ring as a candidate for the KO presidential primaries, a poll had appeared testing how much added value his long years in the foreign and defense ministries has for the Polish electorate. The result is somewhat surprising. The new poll, by SW Research for rp.pl, asked which of the two Civic Coalition (KO) candidates would be a safer pair of hands for Polish national security. 29.3% of respondents said that Rafal Sikorski would handle national security better; while 25.9% said that Radoslaw Sikorski would be better. The results are surprising in view of Radoslaw Sikorski's "ideal CV" as a foreign minister, former defense minister and former wartime correspondent.
According to a 25 November 2024 poll conducted by Opinia24 for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24, Rafal Trzaskowski would secure 41% of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, while Karol Nawrocki would receive 26%. Slawomir Mentzen placed third. In a potential second-round face-off, 52% of respondents would vote for Trzaskowski, the current Mayor of Warsaw, compared to 41% for Nawrocki, the head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN). The survey also asked participants whom they would vote for in a hypothetical second-round matchup between Karol Nawrocki and Rafal Trzaskowski. Trzaskowski would receive 52% of the votes, while Nawrocki would secure 41% .
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
