Netherlands - Parliamentary elections 17 March 2021
The Netherlands held parliamentary elections on 17 March 2021, with some polling stations opening earlier this year to allow for more social distancing during the pandemic. In total, 89 parties had registered with the national voting council for the March 17 general election, beating the previous record of 81. The list includes 26 new party names, including the more established Lijst Henk Krol, the Islamic party Nida and Ja21, set up by former members of far right Forum voor Democratie. But the list also includes interest parties such as EVERT!, Nuchter Nederland (sober Netherlands) and Blije Burgers (happy citizens), as well as several campaigning for children’s rights.
Registration does not mean that the parties would compete in March. In order to be included on the ballot paper, parties must hand in a list of candidates and other supporting documents. In 2017, 28 parties were eventually listed on the ballot and 13 polled 0.67% of the vote, enough to secure them representation in the 150-seat parliament. A number of MPs have changed allegiance and there are currently 15 different political groups represented in the lower house. A record number of 37 parties were competing for seats in the 150-strong lower house.
After an escalation within the Party for Animals and an unhappy relationship with 50Plus, Femke Merel van Kooten-Arissen announced that she would set up her own party: Splinter. Ex-Forum for Democracy (FvD) members Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga would also be on the ballot with their own party, JA21. Van Kooten-Arissen is aiming for an inclusive group of voters. Splinter seeks to become the “green, progressive, liberal, social democratic” voice currently missing in the Lower House of Parliament (Tweede Kamer). This was stated in the party’s provisional election program.
JA21 presents itself as “a descent right-wing party,” which is currently missing in the Tweede Kamer, according to Eerdmans and Nanninga. “JA 21 stands for Joost and Annabel. And 2021 is the year in which it must happen,” says Eerdmans. “At the same time, JA (yes) stands for the right approach, the answer to the problems in the Netherlands,” he adds. The new party focuses on classic right-wing themes. “We are in favor of strict immigration and a European Union where the Dutch interest comes first. And we want the climate agreement to be dropped immediately. That agreement costs us a lot of money,” said Eerdmans.
The parliamentary elections posed some interesting leadership questions. Is Mark Rutte going to be VVD’s leader again? Or is Klaas Dijkhoff taking over his position? Will Hugo de Jonge or Wopke Hoekstra (or perhaps Mona Keijzer) become the leader of CDA? And who would be the leader of D66: Sigrid Kaag, Kajsa Ollongren or Rob Jetten? What would be the big issues – and thus the election issues – for the next 10 years? More Europe or less Europe? More or less refugees? Investing in climate policies or not? Investing in healthcare, education, defense and housing, or saving money instead?
In December 2020, a parliamentary committee of inquiry presented a report stating that the involved parents faced unprecedented amounts of injustice. And that cabinets, parliaments and even the judiciary all played a role in the suffering caused to tens of thousands of innocent parents. The committee said that Prime Minister Mark Rutte and members of government in both the current Rutte III and previous Rutte II cabinets are all partly responsible for the brutal fraud approach that led to this scandal.
The entire Dutch government resigned 15 January 2021 over the child benefit scandal. The ministers would continue to carry out their duties until the new government is sworn in. The Cabinet of Ministers would continue to deal with pressing problems, in particular the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, while more controversial and sensitive issues would be left to the next government. The scandal erupted after the authorities wrongly accused thousands of parents of fraudulent child care benefits and demanded the return of the money paid. In some cases, the sums reached tens of thousands of euros. The Tax Authority used ethnic profiling in its witch hunt, with dual-nationality being one of the criteria with which potential fraudsters were selected.
CDA, D66 and ChristenUnie entered the Council of Ministers with the intention of withdrawing from the coalition. They were irritated by the VVD's refusal to resign the cabinet, and especially by Prime Minister Rutte's demand that the Ministers had to guarantee that their parliamentary parties would unanimously support the cabinet.
Until recently Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders appeared to have faded into political irrelevance, thanks partly to the country’s mainstream parties’ adoption of some of his populist positions. Rivals on the populist right, notably Thierry Baudet, started to eclipse Wilders. But the controversial firebrand seemed to be on the brink of pulling off a strong electoral showing with his party, the Party for Freedom, PVV, likely to place second in parliamentary elections, according to opinion polls. PVV was on course to retain the 20 seats it won in 2017, and if that held true, it would amount to a comeback by Wilders, whose party had struggled to keep its political footing and stumbled in 2019 when it went from nine seats to five in elections for the national parliament’s upper house.
Wilders says that he wants the Netherlands to return to “a country without headscarves, but with traditional Dutch coziness,” and backs the contentious tradition of Black Pete, when children and adults dress as “blackface” during the December holiday of Sinterklaas. “We express that our own culture is best. And we're proud of that! Unfortunately, the attack on the Netherlands' culture went into high speed last year because of the glorification of dangerous activist groups like Black Lives Matter and Kick Out Black Pete,” Wilders says in the PVV manifesto.
All the eve-of-election polls are giving the right-wing liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, VVD, of incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte a clear lead in the elections. His party is projected to get at least 30 seats in the lower house. Housing shortages, the environment, health care and education have all figured in election campaigning. Rutte’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has also been an issue. The 54-year-old’s favorability ratings had held up well for most of last year, but a prolonged lockdown has begun to dent his popularity in recent weeks.
Third place in the elections is likely to go to the Christian Democratic Appeal party, CDA, which has moved further to the right under the leadership of Wopke Hoekstra, the country’s finance minister, who was also an outspoken critic of the EU’s post-pandemic financial stimulus plan, which would see richer European countries help out poorer ones.
According to initial forecasts on broadcaster NOS, Rutte’s centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) has about 23 percent of the vote. With 35 seats, it is by far the strongest force in the House of Representatives. The poll forecast that the centrist D66 party, which was part of Rutte’s last coalition, won 27 seats – eight more than at the last election – to become the country’s second largest party. However, Ipsos had said before polls closed at 20:00 GMT that uncertainty caused by voting in the COVID-19 pandemic makes the margins of error larger than in other elections. “A difference of two seats per party could happen more often. A difference of more than two seats cannot be completely ruled out,” Ipsos said in a statement.
The initial numbers from the poll indicated that Rutte would need to form a coalition with at least two other parties to get a majority of 76 seats in parliament. The Freedom Party of anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders was forecast to drop three seats to 17, compared to the 2017 election result. Coalition member Christian Democrats lost five seats and Labour was flat. Another party on the far-right of the Dutch political spectrum, Forum for Democracy, did better, according to the poll, gaining six seats to reach eight. Its charismatic leader, Thierry Baudet, was one of the only leaders to hold campaign rallies around the country.
Dutch political parties agreed on 13 December 2021 to form a coalition government that would hand Prime Minister Mark Rutte a fourth term in office, a record 271 days after elections in March. Four parties – Rutte's centre-right VVD, the progressive D66, the centre-right CDA and the conservative Christen Unie – agreed on the text of a deal that would go before parliament. But the Netherlands, facing challenges including a spike in Covid cases and riots over virus restrictions, would have to wait until January for its new government while the parties select ministers. The Netherlands had been hit by its worst riots in decades this year over its coronavirus restrictions, which now include a virtual nightime lockdown and limits on the numbers of home visitors.
In late October the negotiations beat the Netherlands' previous record for coalition talks of 225 days as the parties wrangled still more. That record was set in 2017 for the formation of Rutte's last cabinet. The new coalition's policies are likely to include extending free childcare, investing billions of euros to tackle climate change and a housing shortage, nuclear energy research and road pricing.
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