Ireland - Election 2020
Elections in Ireland took place on 08 February 2020, days after the UK is due to exit the EU and begin a yearlong transition period out of the bloc. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail both refuse to govern with Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), meaning the resurgent Greens could decide whether Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar or Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin heads up the next minority administration if little divides their parties.
Irish President Michael D. Higgins dissolved the 32nd Dáil Éireann (Irish Parliament) at the request of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar on January 14, 2020. A total of 159 of the 160 Dáil Éireann seats were contested, with the outgoing Ceann Comhairle [speaker] being re-elected automatically unless he opts to retire from the Dáil. A party needed to win 80 seats to achieve the majority.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on 21 January 2020 announced plans for fresh elections but stopped short of setting a date. "I have made a decision but there is some respective protocol around this, so I would like to speak to the Cabinet and the leader of the opposition," Varadkar told Irish broadcaster RTE. Varadkar's conservative Fine Gale has led a minority government since 2016 after junior coalition partner Fianna Fail said it would extend a three-year cooperation deal to 2020.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael party failed to win any of the four by-elections held to fill parliamentary vacancies 29 November 2019, a blow ahead of a general election he planned to hold. The governing center-right party had held one of the seats left empty after four lawmakers successfully ran for European elections in May. Its main rival Fianna Fail captured two of the seats, a gain of one, while left-wing Sinn Fein and the Green Party added a lawmaker each in the 158-seat Irish parliament.
For Fine Gael, the task was to convince voters that change was too risky and puts the economic recovery and the adept handling of Brexit in jeopardy. For Fianna Fáil, the challenge was to convince voters that it was the only party that can realistically lead an alternative government, the only party that stands a chance of bringing to an end Fine Gael's decade-long hold on power. For Sinn Féin, the objective was to present itself as the agent of a deeper more fundamental change that can cast off the old-fashioned tribalism of Irish politics and replace it with a something entirely new.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said Sinn Féin in government would push for a referendum on Irish unity by 2025, and said Election 2020 has to be “the watershed in which the dominance that overbearing dominance of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Irish political life…needs to be over”. Her forceful populism would have gone down well with Sinn Féin supporters but her tone might not have won her many plaudits with others.
As she took to the floor of the Claire Byrne Live debate studio in NUI Galway 28 January 2020, Mary Lou McDonald cast herself as the outsider, the anti-politician figure. This was not too difficult given the debate started with statements from the leaders of the two biggest parties about why they do not want to do business with them. "Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have had it all their own way now for almost a century," Ms McDonald said. "The truth is that they don’t want to let the alternative in." It was a theme that continued when Sinn Féin launched its manifesto. "Do voters want more of the same? Or do they want change that will solve the housing crisis, put money back in people’s pockets, deliver public services and plan for Irish unity," asked Ms McDonald.
The message appears to be resonating. According to the 26 January 2020 opinion poll by Red C for the Business Post, younger voters in particular are putting their faith in Sinn Féin to solve some of the biggest issues affecting them. The poll suggests that some 33% of under-35s trust Sinn Féin to solve the housing crisis, compared to 14% who trust Fine Gael and 13% who trust Fianna Fáil. Recent experience - of both the marriage equality and Repeat the Eighth referendum campaigns - tells us that younger voters are mobilised by issues in a way that they are not by party politics.
Sinn Féin ran 42 candidates across the 39 election constituencies. The 33rd Dáil would have 160 seats, meaning 80 would be needed to secure a majority after the election of a Ceann Comhairle. Sinn Féin would need all but one of the candidates it was standing to be elected if it were to be the major partner in a potential post election coalition. Asked if she could be taoiseach after the election or lead a government, McDonald said: “The reality is that unless something extraordinary happens, the days of single party government are over. Neither of the two men concerned are guaranteed either that they will have 42 seats.”
The 2020 elections returned a fragmented House of Representatives where the three largest parties won a similar number of seats (between 35 and 38) in the 160 member House of Representatives. Fianna Fáil led by Mr. Micheál Martin came first with 38 seats (down from 44). Sinn Féin led by Ms. Mary Lou McDonald followed with 37 seats (up from 23), winning two more seats than Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael (35 seats, down from 50). The Green Party, led by Mr. Eamon Ryan, increased its share of seats from 2 to 12, thereby becoming the fourth largest party in the new legislature.
The four largest parties nominated their respective leaders as their premiership candidates but none of them secured the required 80 votes on 20 February when the new legislature held its first session. Prime Minister Varadkar submitted his resignation to President Michael D Higgins. After nearly four months of negotiations, on 15 June, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party agreed to form a coalition government to be led by Mr. Martin (Fianna Fáil). It is the first government comprising both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Upon election by the House of Representatives on 27 June, the new Prime Minister promised to work on the social, economic, and cultural recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The 2020 elections were held one year earlier than they were constitutionally due. On 14 January, Prime Minister Varadkar announced the snap elections, stating “the election should happen at the best time for the country”, citing the government’s record on a deal on Brexit and strong economy. President Higgins dissolved the House of Representatives later on the same day, triggering early elections. The major electoral issues included tax cuts, housing and climate change. For the first time, the percentage of women surpassed 30 per cent.
Irish nationalists Sinn Fein demanded on 09 February 2020 to be part of the next Irish government after the left-wing party secured the most votes in an election that leader Mary Lou McDonald described as a ballot-box "revolution". The former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, which has recast itself as the main left-wing party, secured 24.5% of first-preference votes, almost doubling its share from the last election in 2016. That put it ahead of the centre-right Fianna Fail on 22.2% and the Fine Gael party of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar at 20.9% in an election analysts described as a seismic shift away from Ireland's century-old, center-right duopoly.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, which had between them led every government since the 1922 foundation of the state, ruled out a coalition with Sinn Fein before the election. But although Fine Gael leader Prime Minister Leo Varadkar reiterated his rejection because of "principle and policy", Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin declined to repeat earlier refusals to consider a coalition with Sinn Fein, saying only that there were significant incompatibilities on policy.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar resigned on 20 February 2020, but stayed on as interim leader while the country's three main parties battle out coalition talks after an inconclusive election. Varadkar tendered his resignation as taoiseach, or premier, to President Michael Higgins after the first sitting of Ireland's lower house of parliament since an 8 February election which radically recast the political landscape.
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin was elected as Ireland's new prime minister, replacing Leo Varadkar. A coalition deal, which took four months, has been agreed between the country's two political arch-rivals. Martin was voted in by 93 votes to 63 at a special parliamentary sitting in Dublin on 27 June 2020. He will lead an unprecedented coalition government between arch-rivals Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, both on the center to center-right of the political spectrum, plus the smaller Green Party. The political alliance brought together two incumbent parties that have dominated Irish politics since independence a century ago. Incumbent prime minister Varadkar, who is from Fine Gael, will return to the prime minister's office in December 2022.
The Green Party, which won 12 seats in February's parliamentary election, emerged as the kingmaker. It secured significant concessions, including a commitment to a 7% average annual cut in greenhouse gas emissions as opposed to the current 2%. As part of the bargain, the new government will also stop issuing new licenses for the exploration and extraction of gas and focus on public transport infrastructure.
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