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Olaf Scholz

Often likened to a robot, Olaf Scholz had never really been popular within his own party. In uncertain times, pragmatism is more in demand than charisma. Charisma is certainly something Scholz lacks. He doesn't know how to express himself or show emotion. Even in moments of great joy, he shows all the restraint of a British butler.

For many years, he was known by the name "Scholzomat," a play on the words "Scholz" and "Automat" or machine. The weekly newspaper Die Zeit coined the term in 2003 because Scholz, then SPD secretary-general, had a habit of defending labor market reform in repetitive technocratic speech formulas.

In 2019, Scholz wanted to become SPD chairman. However, in a membership vote, he lost out to Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, who had promised to move the SPD further to the left. Scholz has always been seen as belonging to the more conservative wing of the SPD. That made it all the more surprising when Esken and Walter-Borjans nominated him as the party's chancellor candidate in August 2020. In the end, the SPD opted for a chancellor candidate it had not wanted as party leader.

Scholz deals with crises: he gets up, continues undeterred and never doubts himself. He seems blessed with unshakable self-confidence. In his decades-long political career, he has experienced many a blow, but none that threw him off course for long.

Scholz, the SPD chancellor candidate, achieved what had seemed impossible not so long ago: He had lifted the Social Democrats out of the low polling numbers it had been witnessing for years. Back in the spring, the party was polling at 15%. But it won 25.7% of the vote. It has been a fantastic game of catch-up. It took Scholz a long time to learn that politics is also about putting himself and his message in the spotlight and being able to sell both well. During the election campaign, he appeared more approachable, friendlier and closer to people. He even changed his gestures and facial expressions. 

During the election campaign, the SPD focused primarily on its candidate. He dominated the posters, he stood center stage and he took part in the political debates. The Social Democrats' campaign revolved entirely around the 63-year-old.

The image the SPD wanted to convey of him was that of a level-headed statesman with robust government experience. They wanted him to seem like the natural successor to outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel, who did not stand for re-election after 16 years. Scholz has been the finance minister in Merkel's Cabinet since 2018 and was also the vice chancellor in the governing coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU and SPD.

Not even the Cum Ex tax scandal and the Wirecard fraud case were able to derail Scholz. Although he didn't come off looking good in the inquiry committees in parliament, neither cases had any political consequences — he always knew how to let accusations roll off his back. He pulled off the trick once again one week before the Bundestag election in a special session of the Finance Committee dealing with errors in supervising the FIU anti-money laundering unit.

During the COVID pandemic Scholz, as finance minister, has stood for the billions the government has provided in aid. He also knew how to use that to put himself in the spotlight time and again. "It is the bazooka with which we are now doing what is necessary," he promised in the spring of 2020, immediately after the pandemic reached Germany.

Since the pandemic began, Scholz's motto has been that Germany can financially cope with the crisis. By 2022, Germany will have taken on €400 billion ($467 billion) in new debt. Scholz promised during the election campaign that Germany would be able to grow its way out of debt. "No one need be afraid of this, we've already managed it once, after the last crisis in 2008/2009, and we'll manage it again in just under 10 years," he said.

He took the same approach to climate protection. The Greens have some good ideas, he maintains, but they can only be implemented with the help of the SPD. "Pragmatic, but oriented toward the future" is how Scholz sums up his program.

In foreign policy, Scholz stands for continuity. Under his leadership, Germany would work for a "strong, sovereign Europe" that speaks "with one voice," "because otherwise, we won't play a role," he said. With the global population poised to reach 10 billion, there will be "many powers in the future, not only China, the US, and Russia," but also many Asian countries. He sees cooperation with the United States and NATO as a fundamental principle.

The introverted, business-oriented pragmatist from Hamburg, who only says as much as is absolutely necessary, did not have an easy time with the SPD. When he ran for party office, Scholz usually got the worst results. Nevertheless, he managed to silently and efficiently work his way up the political ladder.

In the process, Scholz underwent a remarkable political transformation. As deputy chairman of the SPD youth organization Jusos, he was still a radical socialist in the 1980s, promoting "the overcoming of the capitalist economy." But through his work as a labor law lawyer with his own firm in Hamburg, he learned a lot about business and entrepreneurship. That experience shaped him.

Scholz was SPD secretary-general, federal labor minister, state interior minister and governing mayor of Hamburg before becoming finance minister in 2018. He was general secretary of the SPD from 2002 to 2004. Scholz is often viewed as a pragmatic centrist in the SPD context, including with regard to foreign policy issues.

Scholz was born and raised in Hamburg and had been mayor of the northern German city-state since 2011. The 59-year-old became active in the SPD at a young age — joining the party's youth branch (Jusos) in 1975 when he was 17 years old. Scholz climbed the SPD's ladder to land top party posts both in Hamburg and at the federal level. A former lawyer who specialized in employment law, Scholz gained popularity in the SPD after he led the party to victory in 2011 in Hamburg's state election and managed to hold on to power in 2015 after forming a coalition with the Green party.

Scholz was comfortable working with Merkel — something that was evident during several joint appearances the two made when Hamburg hosted the G20 summit in July 2018. He also previously served as labor minister for two years under Merkel during her first grand coalition government from 2005 to 2009.

"The EU is not just a customs union. It must develop joint policies in the area of foreign and security, migration, finance, economy," he told German newspaper Die Welt in December 2017. "We have to state clearly what we are planning on the European policy front," Scholz said. "We need to be bolder."

A former nominee of the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP), the U.S. Department of State's premier professional exchange program, he is generally pro-American.

By 2024 it had been a long time since a chancellor was as unpopular with the public as Olaf Scholz. Observers put this down to his style of communication. Many citizens had the feeling that their chancellor is not quite there, that his presence is barely felt. Since December 2021, Scholz has led a three-party government, including his center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and the business-focused Free Democrats (FDP). It has not been easy. Never before had a German government dealt with so many problems. Starting with the Russian war against Ukraine, which made energy scarce and expensive and brought on inflation. The state intervened with financial aid, but now the public coffers are empty.

According to the opinion research institute infratest-dimap, only 19% of voters are still satisfied with Scholz. No chancellor has been this unpopular since the institute began polling in 1997 when Helmut Kohlwas chancellor — he was voted out of office a year later. The chancellor only speaks up when he finds it necessary to do so. When he does make a public statement, it is always brief, sober, and factual. His messages usually try to appease the public, assuring them everything will be fine. But it hasn't been convincing.

The chancellor's visits in late December and early January to areas devastated by flooding, and to the opening game of the German handball team in the European Championships showed what can happen when he meets ordinary citizens. Olaf Scholz was insulted, booed, and jeered. The magazine Der Spiegel is already reporting on secret meetings to discuss plans for the much-loved defense minister Boris Pistorius to run for the SPD in the next elections in the fall of 2025 instead of Scholz.

Never before has a German government had to deal with so many problems. Starting with the Russian war against Ukraine, which made energy scarce and expensive and brought on inflation. The state intervened with financial aid, but now the public coffers are empty. The SPD, Greens and FDP have already achieved much of what they set out to do in their coalition agreement. But there has also been a lot of quarreling, especially between the FDP and the Greens. Scholz usually stays out of it, and that is what people remember.

In November 2023, Germany's constitutional court agreed with the opposition CDU/CSU that the government's budget plans were illegal. It wanted to reallocate more than 60 billion euros ($64.7 billion) in unused credit, earmarked for the pandemic, for climate action. The ruling blew a huge hole in public finances, sparking a budget crisis with no clear solution. Broadly speaking, the government can either cut spending, raise taxes or declare a public emergency that would allow raising debt beyond constitutional limits.

Polling suggests that voters are as unsure as their elected officials on the least bad way forward. The largest number of them, 47%, are for cuts, while 35% are for more borrowing. Very few want to pay more in taxes. If cuts do come, two-thirds of voters appear comfortable with sacrificing low-income benefits, in a scheme known as "citizens' money." More than half would claw back savings in military aid to Ukraine. There is also a plurality of respondents, 41%, who would cut support for making the economy more climate-friendly. The drop in support for climate action comes against the backdrop of the COP28 gathering in Dubai. A solid majority, 62%, expressed the view that Germany has done plenty to combat climate change and that other countries need to step up.

If general elections were held in December 2023, the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz would only receive 14% of the vote. That is another 2% lower than last month's figure and the lowest since June 2021, according to DeutschlandTrend, a monthly tracking of political sentiment among the German electorate. The Greens, who support the SPD in a coalition, land slightly ahead at 15%. The government's third party, the business-first Free Democrats (FDP), would fall under the 5% threshold required to sit in parliament. That is also true of the socialist Left Party, which recently fractured into two groups.

Scholz's defense minister and fellow SPD comrade, Boris Pistorius, is polling strongest of the major political figures listed. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, of the Greens, enjoys the second-highest favorability rating, at 38%. And opposition leader Friedrich Merz, chairman of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is gaining support and polls in third place.

By January 2024, the government’s approval rating hit 17%, a record low. Scholz’s personal popularity hovered at 19%, the lowest mark for any chancellor in a quarter century. Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) aren’t faring much better.