Bulgaria - New Parliamentary Elections - 11 July 2021
The early summer of 2020 was marked by thunderous reshuffling within the ranks of the ruling oligarchy and businessmen close to them, leading to the fall from grace of Vassil Bozhkov, one of the richest gambling, tourism and construction bosses in Bulgaria, followed by a full-blown turf war which spilled over into the public sphere in the shape of leaks. Candid photographs of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov sleeping in his bedroom next to a drawer packed full of 500-euro bills, gold bars and a gun were leaked to the media. The prime minister did not deny the authenticity of the pictures but claimed the money was planted.
Thousands of Bulgarians, frustrated with endemic corruption, began protesting 08 July 2020, demanding the resignation of the center-right government of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the country's chief prosecutor. Protesters, who chanted "Mafia" and "Resign" on Saturday, accuse Borissov's third government and chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev of deliberately delaying investigations into links between graft-prone officials and local oligarchs.
The liberals and the left had always defined themselves in vitriolic mutual opposition to each other, but it seems that GERB and their junior coalition partners from the far right achieved the unachievable - uniting literally everybody against them. The protests voiced three main demands: the resignation of the ruling coalition and the chief prosecutor, early elections and then judicial reform through constitutional amendments.
Anti-government protesters occupied two key crossroads in downtown Sofia on 30 July 2020, vowing to block traffic until the conservative government they accuse of corruption resigns. Thousands of people have rallied for over three weeks in the Bulgarian capital and other cities in the poor EU member's biggest protest wave since 2013-14. Protesters have set up several tents on Eagles Bridge, one of Sofia's busiest downtown crossroads, as well as on a major intersection outside the government headquarters.
Anti-government protesters in Bulgaria have restored their traffic blockades in downtown Sofia, less than a day after they were removed by police. Some 5,000 protesters gathered in the capital for a 30th consecutive evening on August 7, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's conservative government over corruption. The protesters had occupied three major crossroads in downtown Sofia since July 29 and August 1 as part of the biggest protest wave in years in the EU's poorest country. Blockades had also been set up in Plovdiv and the Black Sea port of Varna, severely disrupting traffic. Police moved to remove the protesters’ tents on August 7 and warned that no more blockades would be tolerated.
The deepening political crisis comes after a series of major political scandals in recent months and amid growing public anger against the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. After Bulgaria saw a slump in daily cases during a two-month lockdown, the sudden opening up of businesses and the permission to hold public gatherings have led to a new spike in cases. Analysts say the roots of the present crisis run deep and have to do with the country's weak rule of law and the problematic relationship between oligarchy and politics.
In an opinion poll released by Sova 5 in early July 2020, before protests erupted, just 28.5 percent of the respondents said they trust Prime Minister Borisov; 31.9 percent said they trust President Radev. If there were to be early elections, Borisov's GERB party, which has led three governments in Bulgaria since 2009, would get 21.3 percent of the vote, Radev's BSP 12 percent, DPS five percent, and Democratic Bulgaria 2.4 percent, the poll suggested. Borisov's current coalition partner, the far-right alliance United Patriots, may not clear the 4 percent threshold at the next election. Other options may include, "There is such a people", a new party established by popular talk show host Slavi Trifonov, whose support currently stands at 5 percent.
After more than a month of protests calling for his resignation, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has called for the convening of a grand national assembly to consider and adopt a new constitution. “It is time not only to change the political system but to restart the country,” Borisov said in a televised address on 14 August 2020, noting that the current constitution had been adopted “in a different historical period for different political circumstances.”
Borisov also said he is prepared to step down as soon as parliament sets a date for new elections. The elections are currently set for March 2021. The prime minister said the ruling GERB party had already drafted a new constitution that called for reducing the number of parliament deputies from 240 to 120 and overhauling the judiciary to make it more independent, while also boosting the accountability of prosecutors and judges. Two-thirds of parliament would be required to approve the convocation of a grand national assembly.
Protesters, who accuse the government of corruption and undermining state institutions, issued a statement calling Borisov’s proposal “yet another attempt to win time.” Thousands of protesters have been gathering regularly in central Sofia since the beginning of July calling for Borisov and chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev to step down.
Thousands of Bulgarians rallied in front of the parliament in Sofia on 02 September 2020 in one of the biggest protests so far in two months of demonstrations calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov. Tensions rose in the late hours after some protesters threw over 100 small bombs and firecrackers at police. Officers brought a water cannon and cordoned off the square in front of the parliament. Some 60 people were arrested, police said. The rally took place on the first sitting of parliament after summer recess. Protesters called it the “Grand National Uprising” in response the government’s plan for a new constitution.
On September 2, the two-month-long anti-governmental protests in Bulgaria entered the most violent stage to date. In the evening some protesters, thought to be paid provocateurs, started throwing small fireworks at the police, which eventually provoked a violent response, as officers launched into the crowd, beating people with batons. For the first time, the police deployed water cannon, tear gas and pepper spray, marking the end of the relatively peaceful phase in protesting that made Bulgaria such an outlier in Europe in this regard.
Borissov had pledged to resign if parliament approved his call for the election of a grand national assembly that would vote on a new constitution that should improve the independence of the judiciary and halve the number of deputies. In parliament, President Rumen Radev called for the resignation of Borissov’s centre-right government and appealed to deputies to dismiss plans for a new constitution. “It was not the lack of new constitution that brought the people on the streets, but the lack of morality in the leadership, the erosion of statehood and the corruption,” he said.
The Bulgarian elite is deeply divided and warring factions wield their power over the state as a weapon against their competitors. These intra-class clashes sometimes spill over from the "backroom" via the incessant stream of corruption scandals, leaked photos and recordings, surprise arrests of businessmen who fall out of favor, and even the nationalisation of private businesses. But the violent change of positions within the ruling elite and the elimination of competitors erodes the state.
By late 2020 Seven formations had chances of being in the next National Assembly with five of them being certain at this moment. These are some of the conclusions from the national representative survey carried out by Gallup International between 30 July and 7 August 2020. Both GERB and BSP were losing their positions, while Slavi Trifonov’s party was the main beneficiary from the ongoing processes – he met growing support, which equaled 7.9%. The “Movement for Rights and Freedoms” remains in its traditional range around 7%. “Democratic Bulgaria” scored 5.7% which is two to three times higher result than its traditional levels. Among “Democratic Bulgaria”, “Yes, Bulgaria” met the most distinctly increasing support. Maya Manolova’s new formation had developed, and gained 2.4% or around 130 thousand votes. “United Patriots” also scores 2.3% (VMRO is the most visible). This is around the potential threshold for entering the National Assembly. “Volya” was close to the main formation with 1.6%. This detail is significant considering the extremely dynamic situation. Among the other formations, noticeable are “Alternative for Bulgarian Revival” (0.6%), “Glas naroden” (Voice of the people) (0.4%), etc. “Ataka”, “Vazrazhdane” (“National revival”), the projects of Tsvetan Tsvetanov and Vasil Bozhkov are currently gaining 0.2% support.
Five political formations would most surely enter the next parliament and 2 were near the threshold. This is what a survey by sociological agency "Trend" commissioned by "24 Chasa" newspaper and conducted in the period 12-19 February 2021, showed. 47% of respondents said they would use their right to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The distance between the leading parties - GERB and BSP, had been increasing slightly and GERB received support from 28.9% of respondents, while BSP had 24.1%. "There Is Such a People" kept third place with 12.9%. The MRF followed with 11.1%. According to the poll, Democratic Bulgaria was the fifth safe participant in the next parliament with 6.2%. "Stand UP! Thugs Out!” and VMRO were at the threshold of entering the National Assembly.
The campaign, prominent mostly in the media and online, commenced on 05 March 2021 and centered around issues of corruption, the judiciary, economy and COVID-19 pandemic. Following the call of elections, the government announced several extraordinary budgetary allocations which some ODIHR LEOM interlocutors perceived as financial incentives to the electorate. Several ODIHR LEOM interlocutors alleged that long-standing practices of vote-buying and ‘organized’ voting is still attempted in economically and socially vulnerable communities, particularly impacting Roma.
Five political formations are sure to enter the Parliament, while two are on the verge, show data from a survey, commissioned by the 24 Chassa daily newspaper and conducted by the Trend polling agency face-to-face among 1,004 adults between 9 and 14 March 2021. The GERB-UDF coalition remained a leader with 28.8 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for them. The Bulgarian Socialist Party ranks second with a little over 5 per cent behind their main opponents. The third place was contested, as the difference is small between Ima Takuv Narod [There Is Such a People] with 12.7 per cent and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) with 12.1 percent. Democratic Bulgaria was the fourth certain participant in the next Parliament with 5.9 per cent of support from respondents, who said they would vote. Izpravi Se! Mutri Vun! [Rise Up! Thugs Out!] and VMRO remained on the verge of the parliamentary barrier with 4.1 per cent and 4 per cent of voter support. The remaining political formations were under the 4 percent threshold that would ensure them representation in the next National Assembly.
GERB’s showing in April was its worst ever, coming months after a summer of mass protests over graft and amid calls for Borisov’s government to resign. The party’s support has continued to sag amid fresh scandals. The largely technocratic interim government formed in May by President Rumen Radev, who has tense ties with Borisov, has drawn attention to cases of alleged corruption and abuse of power under the previous GERB-led government, damaging the party’s already battered image. In perhaps the biggest bombshell allegation, interim Interior Minister Boyko Rashkov backed opposition claims that Borisov’s government eavesdropped on other parties ahead of the April elections. Other interim officials have accused Borisov’s government of awarding contracts worth more than $5 billion over just the past two years without a competitive process. They have also claimed that large sums of money for government contracts went to a handful of companies.
GERB is forecast to win from 20.3 to 21.5 percent of the vote, according to polling data from Alpha Research and Gallup International, respectively, a drop of as much as 6 percentage points from April. Meanwhile, There Is Such A People is expected to win from 21.3 to 21.8 percent, according to the same two polling agencies, an increase of more than 3 percentage points from the April election. But even if they do post stronger results than in April, GERB’s opponents may still fail to form a government following the vote, analysts said, triggering yet another snap election in the autumn.
There Is Such A People is expected to win from 21.3 to 21.8 percent, according to the same two polling agencies. Democratic Bulgaria and Stand Up! Get Out! are expected to win about 12 and 5.4 percent of the vote, respectively, according to Alpha Research, giving the three parties around 40 percent combined. That would still force Trifonov to win over members of other political organizations, such as the Socialist Party and the largely ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedom, to form a so-called “floating” majority government.
Bulgaria's new antiestablishment party, There Is Such A People (TSN), said 26 April 2021 that it would not try to form a government, increasing the odds that the southeastern EU member would hold fresh elections. The announcement came after the center-right GERB party of longtime Prime Boyko Borisov recognized on April 23 that it had failed to form a government after coming first in parliamentary elections with just 26 percent of the vote. TSN, led by television personality Slavi Trifonov, took second place in the elections with 18 percent of the vote by tapping into frustration with endemic corruption and poverty. Two other antiestablishment parties also made gains. Trifonov said his party does not have the necessary number of deputies or partners to form a stable government and would not accept support from the traditional parties that it blames for Bulgaria’s problems. "The support offered is from political entities that are harmful, greedy, and proven to be compromised. And this is not their support, but dependence," he said.
Bulgaria would head to the polls 11 July 2021 after the Socialists became the third political party to refuse to lead a government following last month’s parliamentary election. The Socialists’ decision comes after the centre-right GERB party of outgoing, three-time Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the new anti-establishment ITN party, led by TV host and singer Slavi Trifonov, both gave up on attempts to form a government. The Socialists, who lost almost half of their seats in the April 4 election, said 01 May 2021 it would be impossible to build a working majority in a fragmented parliament and would return the mandate immediately after the president hands it to them on May 5. President Rumen Radev faces having to dissolve parliament, appoint an interim administration and call snap polls within two months – most likely on July 11.
Bulgaria’s National Assembly passed at second reading on 29 April 2021 a bill of amendments to the country’s Electoral Code, implementing a number of changes to the election process, which would go into effect ahead of the snap parliamentary polls. Several provisions in the bill prompted lengthy and heated debates, starting with the amendment that would make it easier to open more voting stations outside the country, as well as removing the limit of no more than 35 voting stations for countries outside the European Union.
Bulgarian caretaker Prime Mnister Stefan Yanev officially took office 12 May 2021, saying the main priority of his government would be to uphold the rule of law and ensure the fairness of the upcoming snap parliamentary elections. "Honest and responsible work by the government can at least partially restore the lost trust in state institutions," Yanev said during his inauguration ceremony. It would be "absolutely uncompromising" against any attempted vote violations, Yanev said. “Integrity, transparency, professionalism," would be the motto of his cabinet, he added.
Two polls published on July 8 indicate that There Is Such A People, a party recently created by popular late-night talk show host and folk-pop singer Slavi Trifonov, could edge out Borisov’s GERB party by as much as 1 percentage point in the July 11 elections. Growing popular frustration with corruption and low living standards is taking its toll on Borisov and GERB. Despite economic growth that exceeded 3 percent in five of the past six years, Bulgaria remains the poorest EU nation and is perceived as the most corrupt.
No clear winner emerged from Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, exit polls showed, with the center-right GERB party of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov narrowly ahead of the new anti-elite party There Is Such a People (ITN). Surveys by Gallup International and Alpha Research showed GERB at 22.1 percent to 23.5 percent, and ITN, led by popular TV host and singer Slavi Trifonov, on 21.5 percent to 22.3 percent in the election, Bulgaria’s second in three months. Even if official results confirm GERB as the largest party its chances of forging a ruling coalition are slim, political observers said.
With 99.5 percent of the ballots counted on July 13, ITN had notched over 24 percent of the vote, an insurmountable lead and an increase of more than 6 percentage points over the inconclusive April 4 elections. With roughly 23.5 percent, a drop of more than 2 percentage points from April, GERB failed to come out on top in national parliamentary elections for the first time in its history. GERB’s ratings have been sliding since last summer, when thousands of people took to the streets to protest against rampant corruption and call on Borisov’s government to resign.
As the results came in, Trifonov could have gotten to work seeking to cobble together a majority coalition by joining forces with two other former opposition parties and seeking support from other groups, leaving Borisov’s GERB party isolated and weakened. But in his first announcement following the July 11 vote, Trifonov proposed a new government without the input of any other party, a highly unusual move that could lead to failure and trigger the country's third parliamentary elections this year. The showman may be betting he could win an even greater percentage of the votes in another snap election, bolstering his power and decreasing reliance on other parties. But they warned that the move could backfire -- and open the door for Borisov's party to regain the top position.
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