Bulgaria - World War III.2
Parts of the Bulgarian army and generals have often caused irritation with their pro-Russian statements, and their loyalty to NATO is questionable. It's not just socialists, nationalists and the security apparatus in Bulgaria who are traditionally pro-Russian. There is also sympathy for Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin among the general population. According to surveys by the polling institute Alpha Research, around 50% of the Bulgarian population had a positive opinion of Putin in early 2022. At the beginning of February 2022, only 40% had a positive view on Bulgaria's NATO membership — and only 28% were in favor of the country becoming more involved in NATO, in view of the looming war. But Russia's attack on Ukraine seemed to be changing public opinion; Four days after the attack, support for Putin fell to 32%.
Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, it became increasingly difficult for Prime Minister Kiril Petkov to moderate tensions between members of his coalition — pro-Russian socialists and pro-Western reformers. The Socialists voted in both the Bulgarian and European parliaments to oppose sanctions against Russia and the banning of the Russian state media RT and Sputnik in the EU. "In their rhetoric, the socialists condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they oppose both sanctions and military aid to Kyiv. Their pro-Russian orientation distinguishes them from the other governing parties," said Rumena Filipova, director of the Institute for Global Analytics in Sofia.
"This conflict has the potential to have the government fall apart," Filipova told DW. Resistance to the Petkov government's trans-Atlantic course also comes from the ultranationalist Regeneration Party. "Their extreme positions on the abolition of all COVID measures, the blocking of neighboring North Macedonia's accession to the EU and their pro-Russian stance meet with broad approval in society. In doing so, they are putting pressure on the government, which in turn is making concessions to them," said Filipova.
On 01 March 2022, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov fired his defense minister for pro-Russian statements just a day earlier. When Defense Minister Stefan Yanev was dismissed, Petkov explained that "no minister has the right to have his own foreign policy via Facebook, no minister may be a burden on the coalition government, and no minister can call events in Ukraine anything other than 'war'."
Yanev, an officer in the army of a NATO member state, had described Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine as an "operation" on Facebook the previous weekend, thereby explicitly complying with the language rule set by Russian President Vladimir Putin. As early as December 2021, Yanev had on Facebook criticized the stationing of NATO troops in Bulgaria. In January, he warned about the "foreign media" doing damage to the Bulgarian "national interest" in its coverage of the conflict over Ukraine.
The new defense minister had hardly been sworn in when the next scandal caused a stir the following morning. Bulgarian general Valentin Tsankov, who according to media reports is the reserve general and deputy chairman of the Bulgarian Army Association, was arrested for spying for Russia. Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador and expelled two Russian diplomats. Just as one year earlier, a spy ring was uncovered in the Defense Ministry and the military secret service. Agents disguised as diplomats in the Russian Embassy are said to have been the spy's contacts.
General Tsankov has been in similar trouble before. In 2011, he was recalled from Washington as military attache when it was revealed that in the 1980s he had worked for the communist military intelligence service and had been trained in Moscow. If the allegations against Tsankov, who has been accused of spying for Russia since 2016, are true, the case would be further evidence of Russia's ongoing infiltration of Bulgarian security agencies since the Cold War.
Towards the end of 2022, the Bulgarian parliament approved the first military aid package for Ukraine, but President Rumen Radev announced that Bulgaria would not send arms to Kyiv without an interim cabinet in power. Pro-Russian Radev has appointed interim cabinets between inconclusive elections and has criticized Petkov and his allies as "warmongers." In June 2022, one party left Petkov's ruling four-party coalition, criticizing the government's supply of weapons to Ukraine and accusing the government of excessive public spending.
Bulgaria's former government quietly supplied Ukraine with weapons soon after Russia invaded last year, according to an investigation by the German daily Die Welt. Bulgaria "secretly saved Ukraine". That's what conservative German daily Die Welt claimed in an article from 18 January 2023. After Russia invaded the country on February 24, 2022, the government in Sofia began a "secret strategy" as soon as four days later, when then pro-Western Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov visited the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. By the time he made the trip, the Bulgarian government had already initiated a procedure for comprehensive military aid to Ukraine, according to Die Welt.
"To avoid official arms deliveries, ammunition and armaments entered Ukraine indirectly. That's how Bulgaria intermittently covered a third of the Ukrainian army's needs," reported journalist Philip Volkmann-Schluck, who also published an adapted version of the piece in Die Welt's English-language sister publication Politico, both of which are owned by German publisher Axel Springer. Bulgaria also supplied diesel to Ukraine unnoticed, meeting up to 40% of the Ukrainian army's needs for tanks and vehicles between April and August, the article added.
Petkov was heading a four-party coalition at the time, and his Deputy Prime Minister Korneliya Ninova, who also leads the traditionally pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), was strictly against arms deliveries to Ukraine, as was President Rumen Radev. While some members of the Bulgarian coalition had sided with Russia, Petkov decided to "be on the right side of history and help us defend ourselves against a much stronger enemy," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the paper.
Johanna Deimel, a regional expert who sits on the board of the Southeast Europe Association (SOG), underscores the complexity of Bulgaria's decision at a time when there are strong pro-Russian forces in the country. "Both the Socialists and the president are seen as Russia-friendly, though for both I would say their star is obviously sinking. To me, it's the same as what has Petkov said — that we have shown that a world is possible without dependence on Russia."
Martin Kothé, head of the Southeast and Eastern Europe regional office for Germany's liberal Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Sofia, also praised Petkov's decisions. "Tiny Bulgaria has chosen the right side of history and took major risks. I think that is exemplary. Germany, under its new defense minister, should take a page out of that book in the future." Bulgaria had not officially provided aid to Ukraine, but through arms sales via other NATO countries. This was confirmed by former Prime Minister Petkov on January 18 in Sofia. Instead, partners from Poland, Romania, the US and England bought the weapons from Bulgarian industry, he said.
Petkov's finance minister at the time, Asen Vasilev, has also confirmed this. The relevant decision by the Bulgarian parliament not to supply arms to Ukraine was adhered to, he said. This decision had been taken under pressure from the public and the Socialists, which had otherwise threatened to leave the coalition.
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