Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) - Republika Srpska Election - 2022
The election took place following a surge in separatist discourse within the Serb-dominated region. Milorad Dodik, the entity's previous president, was ousted from his position after attempts to disregard the Dayton peace accord and the authority of Sarajevo. Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority component of Bosnia and Herzegovina, held a snap presidential vote 23 November 2025.
This was triggered after electoral authorities ousted secessionist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik from the presidency in August. Dodik's removal resulted from a conviction for rejecting decisions made by Christian Schmidt, the international peace overseer responsible for enforcing the Dayton peace accord that concluded the 1992–95 Bosnian War. The court additionally imposed a one-year prison term – which he circumvented by providing bail – and prohibited him from political involvement for six years. Bosnia's highest court supported this decision at the start of November. In October, the Republika Srpska National Assembly selected Ana Trisic-Babic as a temporary president until the Sunday election.
As stated by Bosnia's Central Election Commission (CIK), polling was conducted on Sunday, November 23, from 7am (06:00 GMT) until 7pm (18:00 GMT). Over 1.2 million individuals, representing the three primary ethnic communities – Serbs, Bosniaks, and Croats – were registered to vote. Historical participation in presidential elections has usually been between 50 percent and 55 percent.
Even with Trisic-Babic's interim appointment, regulations mandate fresh elections within 90 days of a president's dismissal.
The victor of the election will complete only the remaining part of Dodik's term, which was under a year, until the general elections scheduled for October 2026. Initial results were anticipated on the night of the election, but the definitive official tally from the Central Election Commission will be released only after the body certifies all results.
Republika Srpska is one of two principal political units inside Bosnia, the other being the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – both possessing considerable self-rule. The two share equal authority over a third, minor self-governing administrative district in the nation, called the Brcko District. Republika Srpska was declared by Bosnian Serb leadership in 1992 at the onset of the 1992–95 war and was officially recognized as a component of Bosnia's post-war constitutional framework in 1995 under the Dayton peace agreement.
Republika Srpska occupies around 49 percent of Bosnia's land area, while the other 51 percent constitutes the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Republika Srpska maintains its own administration, legislative body, judicial system, and law enforcement, but it does not have a separate military.
Currently, its population was predominantly Serb, with Serbs constituting about 82 percent of its inhabitants, together with smaller Bosniak and Croat communities, based on the most recent census conducted over ten years ago in 2013. Its demographic composition altered significantly during and after the war, partly due to the ethnic purification of non-Serb populations. Prior to the conflict, Bosniaks and Croats represented nearly half of the population in the territory that now forms Republika Srpska; presently, they comprise under 17 percent.
Its inaugural president, Radovan Karadzic, received a life sentence in The Hague for the 1995 genocide targeting Bosniaks in Srebrenica, a town currently located inside Republika Srpska.
The election came at a very delicate period for Bosnia. Following Russia's 2022 incursion into Ukraine, Republika Srpska has amplified its talk of separating from Bosnia, with Dodik – a staunch partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin – repeatedly advocating for the entity's independence, possibly to unite with Serbia. This election would decide Dodik's successor following his ouster and his prolonged control over Republika Srpska's political scene. The ballot also served as an indicator of the extent of influence he can still wield, even with his prohibition from political engagement.
The ballot featured six contenders, four put forward by Republika Srpska's political parties, and two campaigning as independents.
The primary competitors were Sinisa Karan from Dodik's governing Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), who has direct support from Dodik, and Branko Blanusa from the opposing Serb Democratic Party (SDS).
Karan was a veteran member of Dodik's close associates and a previous interior minister for Republika Srpska. He currently holds the position of minister for scientific and technological development and higher education in the present Republika Srpska government. He participated in a group assigned to prepare an SNSD strategy for Republika Srpska to detach from Bosnia.
Analysts indicate that Dodik perceives Karan as a continuation of his own authority. Dodik has been a prominent figure at Karan's campaign events.
Blanusa, the SDS contender, was a participant in the party's Banja Luka City Committee and a lecturer at the Faculty of Electrical Engineering at the University of Banja Luka. The SDS, currently the chief opposition party in Republika Srpska, was initially headed by Karadzic. It was also a Serb nationalist party and has traditionally vied with Dodik's SNSD for the same voter base. Although it critiques Dodik's governing approach and claims of corruption, it generally holds similar views on crucial political matters, including dealings with the capital Sarajevo and doubt towards the international supervisor of the peace agreement.
The other party-supported contenders were Nikola Lazarevic of the Ecological Party of Republika Srpska and Dragan Dokanovic of the Alliance for New Politics (SNP).
Two independents, Igor Gasevic and Slavko Dragicevic, were also listed but have stayed largely out of public view.
Milorad Dodik, aged 66, was the previous president of Republika Srpska. Supported by Western nations in the late 1990s, he became the entity's prime minister in 1998 and was considered a hopeful substitute for the rigid nationalist rule of genocide convict Karadzic and the then-dominant SDS, which controlled the post-war era. Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright referred to Dodik as “a breath of fresh air”, and both the United States and the United Kingdom pinned their aspirations on him as a potentially more moderate leader.
He was among the initial leaders in Republika Srpska to recognize the Srebrenica genocide. In a 2007 discussion with a Bosnian television network, Dodik, the president of SNSD since its founding, stated he understood “completely what happened” and that “a genocide occurred in Srebrenica”.
“That verdict was delivered by the court in The Hague, and that was an unquestionable legal reality,” he commented. He completed three terms as president of Republika Srpska, serving two consecutive periods from 2010 to 2018 and winning once more in 2022. In 2018, he was chosen as the Serb representative in Bosnia's three-member presidency.
During this time, however, Dodik assumed a much more nationalist attitude, frequently advocating for the entity's separation, and refuting the Srebrenica genocide – reversing his own prior acknowledgments.
In 2023, Dodik approved two disputed laws that essentially stated that decisions by the Dayton Agreement peace envoy and verdicts of Bosnia's constitutional court would not be valid in Republika Srpska. The peace envoy and the constitutional court nullified those laws.
In March 2025, the constitutional court issued arrest warrants for Milorad Dodik and multiple associates for accusations of subverting the constitutional system. However, a month later, officers from the Republika Srpska police prevented members of the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) from accessing the administrative headquarters of the Republika Srpska government to detain Dodik, escalating frictions with Sarajevo further.
In August 2025, Bosnia's electoral authorities removed Dodik from the presidency and banned him from political activity. Nevertheless, he continues as the president of the SNSD party and remains its most influential personality.
Bosnia as a state depended on a power-sharing mechanism where the two entities were tightly connected. Republika Srpska's defiance of state institutions and the growth of separatist risks can influence the nation's stability at the federal level.
The early election also pressured Bosnia's economy. The election was financed from the federal budget, not the entity's own bodies, in a nation possessing one of Europe's most modest economies. Bosnia's Central Election Commission has designated over six million Bosnian marks (nearly $4m) for the elections.
The UK government, a guarantor of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, stated during a United Nations Security Council session on Bosnia in October that conducting presidential elections in the Republika Srpska would provide “a chance for the establishment of their new administration,” maintaining that “the constitutional system and rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina must be respected”. Jennifer MacNaughtan, the UK delegate, expressed at the session: “We advocate for a concentration on productive and collaborative politics, including between Bosnia and Herzegovina's two entities”.
In October 2025, Russia, a powerful supporter of Republika Srpska, commended the handover of power from Dodik to interim president Babic, but had also stated that the Office of the High Representative peace envoy (OHR) should be “shut down permanently”, reflecting Dodik's position.
In discussions with the press, the representative of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, mentioned the Russian Federation “firmly endorses” the efforts of the Republika Srpska leadership against “weakening core principles” of the Dayton peace treaty.
The US had not made an official statement regarding the elections, but the Department of the Treasury has recently removed sanctions on Dodik, his relatives, and his associates, including the SNDS candidate Karan, for subverting the Dayton peace agreement. Bosnia's Serb officials implied they were discreetly pursuing a more collaborative relationship with the US, while maintaining their cordial connections with Russia.
Republika Srpska's closest ally, Serbia, adopted a more reserved position than normal. In a conversation with the state-run Radio Television of Serbia, Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic – who has encountered anti-government demonstrations that have rocked the nation for nearly a year – refrained from direct commentary on the elections. He mentioned he desired “all the best” for Republika Srpska and expected everything would “proceed calmly”. He added that Serbia would consistently be available to assist with “infrastructure”.
If SNSD's Karan was victorious, the entity was expected to stay under Dodik's sway. In a statement to Euronews Serbia, Karan said the election had been “imposed” on Republika Srpska by the peace envoy Schmidt and that a ballot for him was “a ballot for President Dodik”. The governing SNSD also possesses a solid majority in the Republika Srpska National Assembly.
Blanusa, from the opposition SDS party, informed local BN television that Republika Srpska, under the existing leadership, has turned “destitute, displaced and isolated”, and has promised to focus on addressing corruption in the entity as his primary objective.
Indeed, the entity confronted severe economic difficulties. According to the Database of Economic Indicators of Republika Srpska, the overall gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023 was approximately 16 billion Bosnian marks (around $9bn), half the GDP of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – and therefore, a third of the national economy.
The election outcome might also provide hints about political directions before next year's October elections, which could establish who governs the entity for the subsequent four years.
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