Bosnia and Herzegovina - Russia Relations
If Russia loses Bosnia as it has lost Montenegro and North Macedonia, it will have lost the whole of the region even with Serbia and Kosovo still formally outside of NATO.
The Russian embassy in the Bosnian capital Sarajevo warned in March 2021 that should Bosnia take steps towards joining NATO, “our country will have to react to this hostile act.” The purpose of NATO is to “fight against Russia” and joining NATO will force Bosnia to take a side in the “military-political confrontation”, it said.
Toby Vogel, senior associate at the Democratization Policy Council initiative, told Bosnian daily Dnevni Avaz in March 2022 that “it’s mind-boggling that just as the West claims it wants to push back Russian influence in the Balkans, the EU is negotiating changes to the election law that would most benefit the local Kremlin clients,” namely Covic and the Serb member of Bosnia’s presidency, Milorad Dodik.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine may spill over into the Western Balkans, most critically, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a small country that has become a battleground between NATO and Moscow, officials and analysts warned. Analysts told Al Jazeera the crisis in Ukraine presents “a unique opportunity for Bosnia to deal a decisive blow to Putin-backed separatists” in the Balkan country. Bosnia has made it a strategic goal to join NATO and the EU, but Bosnian Serbs, led by Serb member of the presidency and Putin ally Milorad Dodik, object to joining the US-led military alliance.
EUFOR, the EU’s peacekeeping force, announced the deployment of 500 additional reserve forces to Bosnia on top of the existing 600 troops amid fears the crisis in Ukraine could “potentially cause instability in Bosnia”. A day later NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said more support was needed for “countries like Georgia, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina” to help them “pursue the path that they have freely chosen”.
The year 2007 witnessed Russia's transformation from partner to problem in Bosnia. While it was not clear how far Russia intended to go with its sponsorship of Republika Srpska, Bosnian and Croat leaders believed Russian actions embolden RS PM Dodik in his efforts to consolidate the authority of Republika Srpska as an autonomous actor and to undermine the state of Bosnia. Now that Russia has seemingly switched sides on the territorial integrity question, the post-Kosovo separatist rhetoric found an easy audience among politicians and the public of Republika Srpska.
Russian investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, specifically in the Republika Srpske, often attracts significant media attention, bringing greater significance to the investment than what it truly deserves. Russian investment, even more than other foreign investment, draws incredible media attention in BiH, particularly in the RS. Based on the press, one would assume that Russia is one of Bosnia's leading trade partners. But, on the BiH Foreign Investment Promotion Agency's list of top foreign investors, Russia has not been among the overall top ten sources of investment in BiH since the 1992-1995 war. Even in 2007, when Russia invested 132 million EUR in BiH which included the RS oil and gas assets, they placed third in total investments that year, behind Serbia and Switzerland.
There are only small businessmen and oligarchs in Russia, with very few medium or even large-sized companies by global standards. This leads to an uneven private sector. For most Russian businessmen, Bosnia's investment climate is too unstable to look for serious opportunities.
A resurgent Russia and the 2008 crisis in Georgia cast a shadow on politics in Bosnia. Russian backing emboldened RS PM Dodik, who has been engaged in a long campaign to undermine the Bosnian state.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov voiced his concerns in 2014 when he called NATO's expansion to Bosnia, North Macedonia and Montenegro a "mistake, even a provocation in a way". British historian Marko Attila Hoare says Russia sees the Balkans as a battleground where it can try to obstruct NATO and EU expansion. "They have an interest in seeing these conflicts unresolved, in keeping the Kosovo-Serbia dispute unresolved, in keeping Bosnia unstable and the Macedonia-Greece conflict unresolved. That gives them a way of exerting influence,'' Hoare told Al Jazeera 27 June 2019.
Emir Suljagic, Bosnia's former deputy minister of defence, told Al Jazeera that Russian ambassador Ivancov had told him personally in 2015 that while Russia sees some stabilising influence in Bosnia's EU integration, "we see no perspective for your NATO membership". By supporting nationalists, Moscow aims to ensure that the country remains ethnically fragmented.
In January 2018, tensions spiked following reports that a Russia-trained paramilitary force known as Serbian Honour was active in Bosnia, serving to back separatist Dodik, confirmed by Bosnia's minister of security Dragan Mektic. In recent years, numerous Russians have been declared security threats and banned from entering the country, including US-blacklisted Konstantin Malofeyeev who funds separatist activities in eastern Ukraine and is one of the main sources of financing for Russians promoting separatism in Crimea.
Serb members such as Milorad Dodik, the chairman of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, remain staunchly against NATO membership since the military alliance had targeted Serb troops in 1995 in an attempt to halt the war and then in 1999 bombed Serbia to drive out Serbian forces from Kosovo. In late May 2019, Dodik blocked submitting the annual national programme to NATO, which would have activated MAP. In June 2019, he warned that unilateral steps taken towards NATO membership would mean the end of Bosnia. The secessionist president - who has promised the Serb entity of Republika Srpska will split away from Bosnia - has been vetoing any initiative towards joining the military alliance for years. And, according to analysts, he has been blocking Bosnia's Euro-Atlantic integration with the help of Russia.
Russia has been supporting the ruling nationalist Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), Croatia's ruling party and its Bosnian HDZ party which calls for greater autonomy of Bosnia's Croat population. Over the years Dragan Covic, the nationalist leader of Bosnia's HDZ party has repeatedly pushed for the creation of a third Croat entity, which has been rejected by the international community, Bosniaks and many Croats as well. By pushing to change Bosnia's election law, Croatia has regularly been accused of attempting to undermine Bosnia's sovereignty, a continuation of its irredentist aims pursued during the war. In September 2018, a month before Bosnia's general elections, independent Bosnian news website Zurnal reported that Russian intelligence was sponsoring electoral fraud to ensure that Dodik and Covic win. Russian ambassador Petar Ivancov has spoken in favour of Covic's position and has strongly opposed Bosnia's path towards NATO.
Political scientist Jasmin Mujanovic told Al Jazeera in June 2019 that Bosnia has gained in significance for Moscow following the events in Montenegro and North Macedonia as it remains the most important "hole" in NATO's regional presence, especially given Belgrade's avowedly anti-NATO position. "It's also significant because it is the strategic centre of the whole region. If Russia can keep Bosnia permanently destabilised through its proxy relationships with the likes of Milorad Dodik, it can effectively destabilise the whole region," Mujanovic said.
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