Ethiopia - Election 2021
Ethiopia will hold a parliamentary election on June 5, 2021, the National Electoral Board said on 25 December 2020, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tries to quell outbreaks of deadly political and ethnic violence in several regions. Abiy’s Prosperity Party, a pan-Ethiopian movement he founded a year ago, faces challenges from increasingly strident ethnically-based parties seeking more power for their regions.
Ahmed took office in 2018 and accelerated democratic and economic reforms that have loosened the state’s iron grip on regional rivalries. But he is now under pressure to contain the violence gripping his nation. Ethiopia’s military battled a rebellious force in the separate northern Tigray region, with a mass deployment of troops that has raised fears of a security vacuum in other areas. The war, believed to have killed thousands, has sent more than 45,000 refugees into Sudan, displaced many more within Tigray, and worsened suffering in a region where 600,000 people were already dependent on food aid even before the conflict began. Ethiopia is also experiencing unrest in the Oromia region and faces long-running security threats from Somali fighters along its porous eastern border.
The death toll in clashes this month between Ethiopia’s two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, in the northern Amhara region may be as high as 200, a senior official said on 25 April 2021, up from previous reports of at least 50. Residents and officials in Oromia Special Zone, an area in Amhara with a majority Oromo population, and the town of Ataye said there were deadly clashes in the area on April 16. “According to information we got from people who are displaced, we estimate that up to 200 people might have died from both zones, but we still need to verify the number,” Endale Haile, Ethiopia’s chief ombudsman, told Reuters news agency.
The polls were originally scheduled to take place on 29 August 2020 but were postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Peaceful elections seem increasingly unlikely in this conflict-ravaged East African nation, where more than 80 nationalities and ethnic groups reside and unresolved grievances persist. "The big problem is the level of violence we're seeing across the country at this time, which looks like it is increasing in the run-up to the elections in early June," William Davison of the International Crisis Group told DW. This applies particularly to the regional states of Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia, the latter of which is the largest of Ethiopia's nine administrative regions, and where — according to Davison — insurgent activity has increased.
There are also logistical issues. More than 56 million citizens eligible to vote are not registered to do so. Ethiopia's electoral board was initially unable to carry out voter registration in western Oromia. Security issues also led to massive problems in Benishangul-Gumuz. There is a civil war going on in Tigray, there is a state of emergency. So there will be no elections in Tigray. There have also been delays in voter registration in the Afar and Somali regions, where there was recent territorial dispute between regional paramilitary forces.
The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) withdrew, claiming that the detention of some OLF leaders — not to mention the shutting down of their offices — had made the party's work impossible. Former rebels from the OLF enjoy widespread support among the Oromo people, Ethiopia's largest ethnic group. The powerful Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) also bowed out.
Ethiopia's electoral board on 20 May 2021 said twice-delayed national elections would be held on 21 June 2021, a major test of democratic reforms under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Electoral board chairwoman Birtukan Mideksa announced a new delay was needed because of logistical woes related to tasks like training electoral staff and printing and distributing ballot papers. The elections will choose national and regional parliamentarians. The national MPs elect the prime minister, who is head of government, as well as the president – a largely ceremonial role. The ruling coalition that preceded Abiy claimed staggering majorities in the two previous elections, which observers said fell far short of international standards for fairness.
Acknowledging the security and logistical challenges facing various parts of Ethiopia, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) disclosed in early June 2021 that voting would not take place in nearly one-fifth of Ethiopia’s 547 polls constituencies. NEBE has said voting in the constituencies not participating next week will go ahead on September 6, but Tigray – with 38 seats – is indefinitely excluded for now.
Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, has no credible opposition parties to compete with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP) after the two most popular ethnic Oromo political parties – the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) – decided to boycott the polls. The parties allege that the elections lack legitimacy, citing an inability to compete while high-profile leaders and party members are behind bars and other members are subjected to physical violence. While the PP is the frontrunner to win a majority of seats, it is expected to face a serious electoral challenge in Addis Ababa and the Amhara region, Ethiopia’s second-most populous.
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