Ethiopia - Election 2021
Ethiopia held a parliamentary election on June 5, 2021. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tried to quell outbreaks of deadly political and ethnic violence in several regions. Abiy’s Prosperity Party, a pan-Ethiopian movement he founded a year ago, faces challenges from increasingly strident ethnically-based parties seeking more power for their regions.
Ahmed took office in 2018 and accelerated democratic and economic reforms that have loosened the state’s iron grip on regional rivalries. But he is now under pressure to contain the violence gripping his nation. Ethiopia’s military battled a rebellious force in the separate northern Tigray region, with a mass deployment of troops that has raised fears of a security vacuum in other areas. The war, believed to have killed thousands, has sent more than 45,000 refugees into Sudan, displaced many more within Tigray, and worsened suffering in a region where 600,000 people were already dependent on food aid even before the conflict began. Ethiopia is also experiencing unrest in the Oromia region and faces long-running security threats from Somali fighters along its porous eastern border.
Registered political parties must receive permission from regional governments to open and occupy local offices. The law requires parties to report “public meetings” and obtain permission for public rallies. In March 2021 the government issued a law which reduced the 5,000 signatures private candidates were required to collect to 2,500. The signature requirement for candidates with disabilities was also reduced from 3,000 to 1,500. The government allowed opposition parties to participate in debates, hold rallies, and campaign actively, although there were serious government abuses. In June 2021, prior to the election, several political parties issued a joint statement concerning the electoral process. The political parties alleged government abuses against their candidates, including killings, attempted killings, beatings, arbitrary detention, and harassment. Some government organizations reportedly forced candidates to accept leave without pay on a mandatory basis. Opposition parties complained that measures the government took against their candidates negatively affected their preparations for the election.
In March 2021 two major political parties in Oromia boycotted the election. The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) – one of the country’s oldest parties with a major following in Oromia – pulled out, citing the jailing of some of its leaders and the alleged closure of its offices by the government, including its headquarters in the capital. In the same month, the Oromo Federalist Congress announced that it was forced to pull out of the election on similar grounds.
The death toll in clashes this month between Ethiopia’s two largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, in the northern Amhara region may be as high as 200, a senior official said on 25 April 2021, up from previous reports of at least 50. Residents and officials in Oromia Special Zone, an area in Amhara with a majority Oromo population, and the town of Ataye said there were deadly clashes in the area on April 16. “According to information we got from people who are displaced, we estimate that up to 200 people might have died from both zones, but we still need to verify the number,” Endale Haile, Ethiopia’s chief ombudsman, told Reuters news agency.
The polls were originally scheduled to take place on 29 August 2020 but were postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. Peaceful elections seem increasingly unlikely in this conflict-ravaged East African nation, where more than 80 nationalities and ethnic groups reside and unresolved grievances persist. "The big problem is the level of violence we're seeing across the country at this time, which looks like it is increasing in the run-up to the elections in early June," William Davison of the International Crisis Group told DW. This applies particularly to the regional states of Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia, the latter of which is the largest of Ethiopia's nine administrative regions, and where — according to Davison — insurgent activity has increased.
There are also logistical issues. More than 56 million citizens eligible to vote are not registered to do so. Ethiopia's electoral board was initially unable to carry out voter registration in western Oromia. Security issues also led to massive problems in Benishangul-Gumuz. There is a civil war going on in Tigray, there is a state of emergency. So there will be no elections in Tigray. There have also been delays in voter registration in the Afar and Somali regions, where there was recent territorial dispute between regional paramilitary forces.
The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) withdrew, claiming that the detention of some OLF leaders — not to mention the shutting down of their offices — had made the party's work impossible. Former rebels from the OLF enjoy widespread support among the Oromo people, Ethiopia's largest ethnic group. The powerful Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) also bowed out.
Ethiopia's electoral board on 20 May 2021 said twice-delayed national elections would be held on 21 June 2021, a major test of democratic reforms under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Electoral board chairwoman Birtukan Mideksa announced a new delay was needed because of logistical woes related to tasks like training electoral staff and printing and distributing ballot papers. The elections will choose national and regional parliamentarians. The national MPs elect the prime minister, who is head of government, as well as the president – a largely ceremonial role. The ruling coalition that preceded Abiy claimed staggering majorities in the two previous elections, which observers said fell far short of international standards for fairness.
Acknowledging the security and logistical challenges facing various parts of Ethiopia, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) disclosed in early June 2021 that voting would not take place in nearly one-fifth of Ethiopia’s 547 polls constituencies. NEBE has said voting in the constituencies not participating next week will go ahead on September 6, but Tigray – with 38 seats – is indefinitely excluded for now.
Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, has no credible opposition parties to compete with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP) after the two most popular ethnic Oromo political parties – the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) – decided to boycott the polls. The parties allege that the elections lack legitimacy, citing an inability to compete while high-profile leaders and party members are behind bars and other members are subjected to physical violence. While the PP is the frontrunner to win a majority of seats, it is expected to face a serious electoral challenge in Addis Ababa and the Amhara region, Ethiopia’s second-most populous.
The country’s sixth general election took place in June 2021. Domestic and international nonpartisan observers generally agreed the June 2021 elections were peaceful. While observers considered the elections a positive step in the country’s democratic trajectory, they also cited challenges, including security problems and large turnouts that overwhelmed polling stations across the country. Observers also noted that the elections took place against a backdrop of grave instability, including interethnic and intercommunal violence, and an electoral process that was not free or fair for all citizens. While some major opposition parties boycotted the elections, observers assessed the result generally reflected the will of most citizens. According to National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), 30 of the 47 parties that participated in the elections filed complaints regarding the election, covering 160 constituencies.
In July 2021 the NEBE announced the results for 423 of the 547 (77 percent) of the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HOPR) constituencies. In September 2021 the NEBE held a second round of elections for an additional 47 constituencies (constituting 9 percent of the electorate) in Somali, Harari, and SNNPR. Of these, NEBE held reruns of 11 constituencies where elections were held in June 2021, but neither the board nor the courts identified irregularities requiring a rerun.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won the most seats in Ethiopia's parliamentary election, the election board said on 10 July 2021, a victory that assures him another term in office. Abiy's party won 410 of 436 parliamentary seats, election board deputy chairperson Woubshet Ayele told a news conference in the capital Addis Ababa. Abiy hailed the June 21 vote as the country's first free and fair election after decades of repressive rule. However, an opposition boycott, war, ethnic violence and logistical challenges overshadowed the election in some areas.
More opposition parties withdrew from the second round of the elections in September 2021. In September 2021 the Executive Committee of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) – the major opposition group in Somali Region – announced its decision to “withdraw from the 2021 election.” ONLF’s statement on the election accused NEBE of failing to ensure conditions for a free and fair election despite the party’s “repeated appeals” on the ruling party’s fraud in voter and candidate registration. The Freedom and Equality Party and the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) also announced their withdrawal from the September 2021 elections.
Although some reports characterized the election process as not conducive for opposition parties, opposition parties won 12 seats in the HOPR. The National Movement of Amhara (NAMA) won five seats in Amhara, while EZEMA, the Gedeo People’s Democratic Organization, and the Kucha People’s Democratic Party (KPDP) won four, two, and one seats, respectively, in SNPPR. In Oromia two independent candidates with no clear ties to the government won seats. The other two winning independent candidates – one in Oromia and one in Addis Ababa – were known advisors to the prime minister. While opposition parties garnered more seats than before, they did not win the 21 seats needed to introduce legislation or amendments or to raise topics for discussion within the HOPR.
Voting did not take place in three of Ethiopia's 10 regions. Abiy's newly formed Prosperity Party faced a fragmented opposition of dozens of mostly ethnically-based parties. The opposition parties Ezema and the National Movement of Amhara (NAMA) each won less than 10 seats. Voting in the Harar and Somali regions was delayed until September over security concerns and problems with ballot papers. No date has been set for voting in Tigray, where the military has been battling forces loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the region's former ruling party, since November. The fighting has displaced 2 million people, and the United Nations has warned of famine conditions in parts of the region.
Conflict-torn Ethiopia held elections 30 September 2021 for dozens of federal parliamentary seats, the final round of voting before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed forms a new government. The 47 contests are taking place in the Somali, Harari and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP) regions, and polling stations were open in all three places.
In the second round in September 2021, the NEBE announced the Prosperity Party added 45 seats in the HOPR by winning 20 in the SNNPR, 23 in Somali, and two in Harari Regions, bringing the total seats announced to 468 of 547 seats (85.5 percent). The status of an additional 74 constituencies (approximately 14 percent), was still not clear by the year’s end, including 35 constituencies spread across several regions and the 38 constituencies in Tigray Region, which represent 7 percent of the HOPR seats.
Prime Minister Abiy’s Prosperity Party dominated, winning 96 percent of the seats. In October 2021 the country began the process of forming a government during joint sessions of the HOPR and the House of Federation – the lower and upper chambers of parliament, respectively. The HOPR accepted the nomination by the majority Prosperity Party of Abiy Ahmed to serve as prime minister.
The government invited opposition parties to work together and participate in the government. In October 2021 the government appointed EZEMA Executive Committee member Girma Seifu as head of the Investment Commission and the deputy chairman of NAMA as head of the Addis Ababa Public Property Administration Authority, although they were not elected. During its first extraordinary session in October 2021, the HOPR approved the appointment of a 22-member cabinet including three opposition leaders: EZEMA Leader Berhanu Nega as minister of education, NAMA Chair Belete Molla as minister of innovation and technology, and OLF deputy chair Qajela Merdassa as minister of culture and sports.
No laws prevent women or members of minority groups from voting or participating in political life, although patriarchal customs, religious factors, and family commitments limited women’s participation in political life in some cases. Since same-sex activity is illegal, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex (LGBTQI+) persons did not identify themselves in political activity and did not openly participate. During election periods, women experienced more psychological abuse and violence than physical violence in comparison to men. Women were also more likely to experience sexual harassment within political party structures or when running for office.
Although many women went to the polls in the 2021 election, the Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association (EWLA) reported that the environment at polling stations put women at risk of harassment and violence. EWLA criticized NEBE for not taking a more gender-sensitive approach to election day administration. EWLA stated that the extension of voting time until 9:00 p.m. had a disproportionately negative impact on women voters, observers, and officials because women faced a higher risk of sexual harassment and gender-based violence at night. EWLA also explained that the long lines left women voters at higher risk of experiencing sexual harassment.
The Federation of Ethiopia Associations of Persons with Disabilities (FEAPD) deployed its representatives to observe the 2021 general election. In its preliminary report, FEAPD noted accessibility for persons with disabilities was hindered, and that persons with disabilities required additional assistance to access 22 percent of the polling stations visited by observers. FEAPD also noted that of the approximately 200 polling stations they observed, only one government official in one polling station was a person with a disability. In 11 percent of polling stations, political parties fielded persons with disabilities as partisan observers. Local human rights organizations also reported that millions of IDPs could not participate in the election because NEBE did not establish polling places in displacement camps.
Although there were increases in women’s representation, women remained significantly underrepresented across both elected and appointed positions. In October 2021 the HOPR appointed only seven women ministers to the 22-member cabinet – a decrease from approximately 42 percent of the ministers previously to 30 percent.
The government’s policy of ethnic federalism led to the creation of individual constituencies to provide representation for all major ethnic groups in the House of the Federation. The government recognized more than 80 ethnicities, and the constitution states that at least one member represent each “Nation, Nationality, and People” in the House of the Federation.
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