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Canada - 2019 Elections

While their approaches may differ greatly, discussions about pipelines, immigration and the road to the 2019 election will almost certainly be on both parties' agendas.

On 22 August 2018, the Conservative Party released what it is calling a "fair, orderly and compassionate" vision for Canada's immigration plan, amidst a tense, national debate on the issue. The planks of the Conservative Party's principles are to encourage immigrants to become self-sufficient, prioritize the most vulnerable when it comes to humanitarian immigration, and match the skills of economic migrants with industries that need workers in Canada.

Trudeau's cabinet is forming a new ad hoc cabinet committee to co-ordinate its response to the recovery and rebuilding effort after the wildfires in that province, similar to an approach taken after fire devastated Fort McMurray, Alta., in 2016. "Combatting a crisis of this nature involves a great many departments and agencies of the government of Canada," said Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale. "The level of engagement and collaboration has been extensive right from the very start."

Bruce Anderson argued "Mostly, the base is made up of people determined not to be distracted by new facts or better arguments in their support for their party. Instead, election victories happen when parties arent just successful in getting out the votes they can usually count on, but when they win the ones they have a shot at.

By mid-2018, some 57 percent of Canadians said theyd prefer to see a different government in 2019, according to a 31 July 2018 poll from Abacus Data and to put that number into perspective, thats close to the number that didnt vote Liberal in 2015. In July 2017, some 50% said they would prefer the Liberals to be re-elected. This shift means the landscape is more competitive today, but worth bearing in mind that the Liberals were elected with just under 40% of the vote in 2015.

If a vote was held, 36% would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, and 19% NDP. There were competitive races in Ontario and BC (Liberals and Conservatives), while the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and the Conservatives have a lead on the Prairies. Positive impressions of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer are on the rise but so are his negatives. Impressions of Jagmeet Singh are moving more decidedly negative with his negatives now seven points higher than positives.

Among those who say they will vote Conservative but could be persuaded to vote to re-elect, debt/deficits, immigration and refugees and the PMs trip to India rank one-two-three followed by carbon pricing, taxes, and economic policies. Conservatives are much more likely to be concerned with the PMs vacation in the Caribbean compared to New Democrats.

Bruce Anderson: For the most part, polling during a governments mandate reflects how people are reacting to the government and not so much about its competitors. As Canada moves closer to the 2019 election, people will start to evaluate not only the incumbents but the alternatives.

Todays numbers show ample opportunity for the Conservatives to have a successful election next year, but also show that more people are satisfied than dissatisfied with the direction of the country, the performance of the government and the Prime Minister. Regional combats in Ontario and BC are shaping up to be where the fight will be won or lost with plenty of seats on the line, and lots of votes will be up for grabs. A considerable number of voters whove shifted rightward from the Liberals arent particularly dug in or angry. And many of those who have drifted left may find themselves faced with a tough conundrum voting to punish the Liberals for the Trans Mountain pipeline might risk electing a government that would kill environmental measures such as carbon pricing.

David Coletto: The Liberals are still well positioned about a year before the next election begins. But some storm clouds are approaching including Conservative gains in Quebec, weaker support among older voters, and rising concerns about immigration and refugees, especially among Conservative-leaning voters who are open to voting Liberal. The pools of accessible voters for all three parties are closer in size than they have been since the last election and increasing volatility in Ontario and Quebec means predicting what will happen over the next 12 months is increasingly difficult.

Canada's former attorney general claims Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pressured her to go easy on an engineering firm charged with bribery. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expelled Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former justice minister and attorney general, from the ruling Liberal party on 02 April 2019. Wilson-Raybould had accused Trudeau of pressuring her to go easy on SNC-Lavalin, a Canadian engineering firm accused of bribery, while she was justice minister.

Both Wilson-Raybould and former Treasury Board chief Jane Philpott resigned from Trudeau's cabinet due to their roles as whistleblowers in what is considered the biggest political scandal in the PM's career. The SNC-Lavalin scandal left Trudeau's cabinet accused of inappropriately interfering in the engineering giant's corruption case. Wilson-Raybould andPhilpott were expelled from the Liberal Party. Philpott had resigned from her post to protest Trudeau's handling of the SNC-Lavalin scandal. Trudeau said both politicians had "repeatedly expressed a lack of confidence in our government and in me personally as a leader." He also cited Wilson-Raybould's "unconscionable" decision to secretly record her conversation with Michael Wernick, a former top civil servant, for the move.

The scandal rocked Trudeau's government ahead of elections in October. Support for the prime minister's Liberal Party is down to 30 percent, 10 percentage points behind the opposition Conservative Party, according to Ipsos, a polling firm. Canada is set to hold elections on October 21.

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