Canada - 2019 Elections
While their approaches may differ greatly, discussions about pipelines, immigration and the road to the 2019 election will almost certainly be on both parties' agendas.
On 22 August 2018, the Conservative Party released what it is calling a "fair, orderly and compassionate" vision for Canada's immigration plan, amidst a tense, national debate on the issue. The planks of the Conservative Party's principles are to encourage immigrants to become self-sufficient, prioritize the most vulnerable when it comes to humanitarian immigration, and match the skills of economic migrants with industries that need workers in Canada.
Trudeau's cabinet is forming a new ad hoc cabinet committee to co-ordinate its response to the recovery and rebuilding effort after the wildfires in that province, similar to an approach taken after fire devastated Fort McMurray, Alta., in 2016. "Combatting a crisis of this nature involves a great many departments and agencies of the government of Canada," said Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale. "The level of engagement and collaboration has been extensive right from the very start."
Bruce Anderson argued "Mostly, the base is made up of people determined not to be distracted by new facts or better arguments in their support for their party. Instead, election victories happen when parties aren’t just successful in getting out the votes they can usually count on, but when they win the ones they have a shot at.
By mid-2018, some 57 percent of Canadians said they’d prefer to see a different government in 2019, according to a 31 July 2018 poll from Abacus Data — and to put that number into perspective, that’s close to the number that didn’t vote Liberal in 2015. In July 2017, some 50% said they would prefer the Liberals to be re-elected. This shift means the landscape is more competitive today, but worth bearing in mind that the Liberals were elected with just under 40% of the vote in 2015.
If a vote was held, 36% would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, and 19% NDP. There were competitive races in Ontario and BC (Liberals and Conservatives), while the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and the Conservatives have a lead on the Prairies. Positive impressions of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer are on the rise but so are his negatives. Impressions of Jagmeet Singh are moving more decidedly negative with his negatives now seven points higher than positives.
Among those who say they will vote Conservative but could be persuaded to vote to re-elect, debt/deficits, immigration and refugees and the PM’s trip to India rank one-two-three followed by carbon pricing, taxes, and economic policies. Conservatives are much more likely to be concerned with the PMs vacation in the Caribbean compared to New Democrats.
Bruce Anderson: “For the most part, polling during a government’s mandate reflects how people are reacting to the government – and not so much about its competitors. As Canada moves closer to the 2019 election, people will start to evaluate not only the incumbents but the alternatives.
Today’s numbers show ample opportunity for the Conservatives to have a successful election next year, but also show that more people are satisfied than dissatisfied with the direction of the country, the performance of the government and the Prime Minister. Regional combats in Ontario and BC are shaping up to be where the fight will be won or lost – with plenty of seats on the line, and lots of votes will be up for grabs. A considerable number of voters who’ve shifted rightward from the Liberals aren’t particularly dug in or angry. And many of those who have drifted left may find themselves faced with a tough conundrum – voting to punish the Liberals for the Trans Mountain pipeline might risk electing a government that would kill environmental measures such as carbon pricing.”
David Coletto: “The Liberals are still well positioned about a year before the next election begins. But some storm clouds are approaching including Conservative gains in Quebec, weaker support among older voters, and rising concerns about immigration and refugees, especially among Conservative-leaning voters who are open to voting Liberal. The pools of accessible voters for all three parties are closer in size than they have been since the last election and increasing volatility in Ontario and Quebec means predicting what will happen over the next 12 months is increasingly difficult.
Canada's former attorney general claims Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pressured her to go easy on an engineering firm charged with bribery. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expelled Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former justice minister and attorney general, from the ruling Liberal party on 02 April 2019. Wilson-Raybould had accused Trudeau of pressuring her to go easy on SNC-Lavalin, a Canadian engineering firm accused of bribery, while she was justice minister.
Both Wilson-Raybould and former Treasury Board chief Jane Philpott resigned from Trudeau's cabinet due to their roles as whistleblowers in what is considered the biggest political scandal in the PM's career. The SNC-Lavalin scandal left Trudeau's cabinet accused of inappropriately interfering in the engineering giant's corruption case. Wilson-Raybould andPhilpott were expelled from the Liberal Party. Philpott had resigned from her post to protest Trudeau's handling of the SNC-Lavalin scandal. Trudeau said both politicians had "repeatedly expressed a lack of confidence in our government and in me personally as a leader." He also cited Wilson-Raybould's "unconscionable" decision to secretly record her conversation with Michael Wernick, a former top civil servant, for the move.
The scandal rocked Trudeau's government ahead of elections in October. Support for the prime minister's Liberal Party is down to 30 percent, 10 percentage points behind the opposition Conservative Party, according to Ipsos, a polling firm. Canada is set to hold elections on October 21.
With starry-eyed corporate media coverage, international audiences could be fooled by Trudeau's youthful exuberance, telegenic charm and so-called progressive credentials. Behind the deliberately manufactured facade, was an obdurate political operator who remained fixed to the old, corrosive ways and means of governing - domestically and internationally.
Canada's ethics commissioner said 15 August 2019 that Trudeau improperly pressured a former attorney general to halt the criminal prosecution of a company, a development that could imperil his chances for re-election. The report came just before the official start of campaigning for the October 21 general election and it threatened to bring to light once again a scandal that rocked the government earlier in the year, causing a drop in poll ratings that had since abated.
Over 74 percent Canadians surveyed said the country's economy is "excellent" or "acceptable" as the election started, according to Abacus Data. In a survey conducted by Nanos Research, a Canadian public opinion and research company, for Bloomberg News in August, 37 percent of respondents say they trust Trudeau the most to promote economic growth, compared with 27 percent for Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. And, voters' attitude over the SNC-Lavalin scandal differs. Some think it is a legal problem and thus question the credibility of the Trudeau administration. Others believe it is political and accept Trudeau's remarks that he was trying to protect Canadian jobs when he and his staff spoke with former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould about a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) with SNC-Lavalin. Therefore the scandal has not dealt a heavy blow to Trudeau's approval rating.
According to a national survey of Ottawa-based research and strategy firm Abacus Data a day before the official election campaign began on September 11, the Conservatives would capture about 35 percent of popular support while the ruling Liberals would get 33 percent. The Conservatives are most supported by people aged more than 60, while the Liberals are the most popular among voters aged 18 to 29. This is why the Liberals are hoping that young voters who helped the party win in 2015 won't stay at home this year. However, about 62 percent of voters under 30 said they may swing, compared to only 24 percent among those over 60.
anada's 43rd general election will take place on 21 October 2019 in a poll seen largely as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has been rocked by recent scandals. It is a close race between Trudeau's Liberals and Andrew Scheer's Conservatives, with Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party making gains in the final week of campaigning. Although analysts say the campaign has largely failed to inspire voters, millions of Canadians are expected to cast a ballot for the country's next parliament.
Jobs and the economy have figured prominently in several of the parties' electoral platforms, with the Liberals and Conservatives pledging more support and economic incentives for middle-class families. The environment and the fight against climate change have also been important - as mass protests calling for action on climate change took place in several Canadian cities in the middle of the campaign. But there has largely been a dearth of debate on policy.
According to an Ipsos poll published on October 15, the Conservatives were polling at 32 percent support, compared with 30 percent for the Liberals, 20 percent support for the NDP and eight percent for the Greens. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois enjoyed 30 percent of the vote.
Trudeau's Liberals took a narrow lead in the Canadian general election, followed closely by Andrew Scheer's Conservatives. The Liberal Party won the most spots in the 338-seat Parliament but fell short of a majority, meaning they will have to form a coalition with an opposition party to stay in power. Early results showed them winning just 157 seats. The Conservatives were on track to secure at least 121 seats. Around 27.4 million Canadians were eligible to vote at polling stations located in six different time zones. The Bloc Quebecois, a Quebec separatist party, enjoyed a massive comeback after softening its demands for independence. The party, which has been revitalized under new leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, jumped to 32 seats from 10 seats in the predominantly French-speaking province.
Trudeau would have to rely on support from smaller parties such as the Green Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh — the first nonwhite leader of a federal party in Canada. Singh said he had spoken with Trudeau and told him his party would be "working hard to deliver on making sure we deliver the priorities that Canadians have." Singh is a popular figure among young, left-leaning voters. Before the election, the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh was projected to see a "Singh surge", but on election night the count showed the party in the mid-20s from 44 seats in 2015.
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