Belarus - World War III.2
Belarus is part of the Union State with Russia, and has been sanctioned by the US and its allies over the Ukraine conflict. While Belarusian troops have not taken part in the hostilities, Russian forces had used the country’s territory for their initial deployment near Kiev.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko noted in early June 2023 that the conflict did not begin in February 2022, or even with the 2014 US-backed coup in Kiev, pointing instead to the 2004 “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine. “Everything was leading up to this. Probably the only mistake we made was that we did not resolve this issue in 2014-2015, when Ukraine had neither an army nor resolve,” he said.
Lukashenko stressed 27 June 2023 that Russia is an ally of Belarus, so Minsk could not stand aside in a situation where an armed rebellion was attempted by the Wagner PMC in the Russian Federation. "We can't behave meanly in this regard," the Belarusian president said. He noted that issues of general security are also tied to Russia, including the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. "Supply of nuclear weapons, what else our people may not really understand, is a guarantee of our security," Lukashenka said. He stressed that samples of advanced Russian weapons are also being supplied to Belarus. “He (we are talking about agreements with the President of Russia - ed.) gave the missiles to the Iskanders. And he delivered the newest Iskander from the factory. Therefore, so that you understand, this is our security,” the head of the Belarusian state emphasized.
In addition, Lukashenka called Russia a common center of civilization. “No matter how much we want, no matter how we puff out our cheeks, that we are like this and that ... Yes, we are like that, we are special, we are independent, we have our own plans, our own thoughts, and so on. But this is our common civilization. East Slavic civilization. Why should we calmly watch how they should break us? Both from the outside and from the inside," he said.
“There is no doubt that the European power elites are focused on a global war against the East,” Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said at the International Security Conference in Moscow on 15 August 2023. “Today, this battle has morphed into a global confrontation between the West and the East on the territory of Ukraine. The proxy war in Ukraine has actually put the planet on the brink of a third world war.”
“There are intensive military preparations going on in the West. A lot of money is being invested in this. And we must understand that in the capitalist world, no one will freeze their assets in weapons and a swollen army just like that. Therefore, the conclusion can be made unequivocal: the possibility of a direct military clash with NATO is becoming very obvious,” Khrenin said.
According to the minister, the countries of the so-called "golden billion" continue to pursue a policy of imposing their hegemony and world views on other countries and cultures even more strongly. This, in turn, leads to the resistance of many countries of the world, which today has resulted in a global confrontation between the West and the East on the territory of Ukraine, Khrenin said.
The head of the Belarusian Defense Ministry called a kind of colonization of new territories and the expansion of NATO, which is being done to use the territory and population of new member countries in a possible war with the East, which refers to all countries that oppose the plans of the West. According to the minister, in order to effectively resist the West, other countries need to stick together and work actively within the framework of such organizations as the CSTO, CIS, SCO, BRICS.
Lukashenko said in an interview 17 August 2023 with Ukrainian journalist Diana Panchenko that Minsk would not enter into hostilities in Ukraine if the Ukrainians did not cross the border of Belarus, but would always help Russia. "If you, Ukrainians, do not cross our border, we will never participate in this war, in this hot war, but we will always help Russia," Lukashenka said in an interview. He stressed that Russia is an ally for Belarus.
Russia has already reached the principal aim of its military operation in Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said. “As of today, the goals of the special military operation have been met,” Lukashenko told Ukrainian journalist Diana Panchenko. “Ukraine will never be so aggressive towards Russia after this war ends, as it was before. Ukraine will be different. People in power [there] will be more cautious, smart, more cunning if you will,” Lukashenko said.
Belarus continued to facilitate and support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by allowing Russia nearly unrestricted use of its territory, airspace, and military facilities, providing major strategic advantage and logistical support. Belarus also allowed Russia to station missile launchers, airplanes, and other munitions to attack Ukrainian targets from Belarusian territory. Throughout the year 2023, Belarus provided medical, material, and logistical support to Russian troops. Human rights organizations asserted these actions made Belarus complicit in Russia’s human rights abuses in Ukraine.
According to the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, the Lukashenka regime participated in the systematic transfer of thousands of children from Russia-occupied regions of Ukraine to so-called recreation camps in Belarus. According to the regime’s public statements, more than 2,400 children between the ages of six and 17 had been transported from the Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk regions of Ukraine to camps in Belarus since Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The report concluded that these operations were coordinated at the highest levels of the Belarusian and Russian governments and facilitated by each country’s security forces and ultranationalist militant groups.
Credible independent human rights organizations claimed Belarus cooperated with Russia, which targeted children for removal and coordinated their transport from occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia and onward to Belarus. The Lukashenka regime housed children in a network of camps in Belarus, where they were subjected to re-education, including military training and pro-Russia nationalist rhetoric that served the political interests of Belarus and Russia. While the regime claimed the children’s stays were temporary and that all were returned to their homes in Ukraine, human rights organizations assessed there was insufficient evidence to confirm this.
These organizations stated that they were also unable to confirm whether parents and legal guardians had provided free and uncoerced consent, especially as many of the children targeted for forced transfer came from vulnerable populations such as orphans, children with disabilities, adoptees, and children from low-income families. Moreover, human rights organizations argued these actions could contravene accepted protections for children during armed conflict under instruments of international humanitarian law and international human rights law, including the Geneva Convention, to which Russia and Belarus were parties. Individuals could not criticize government officials or the government publicly or discuss politics or matters of general public interest without fear of reprisal, including prosecution, forced exile, and being subjected to other forms of intimidation and harassment. There were also laws criminalizing libel, “hate speech,” and expression of political views, which authorities used to restrict freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.
A 2021 law on “preventing the rehabilitation of Nazism” expanded the list of prohibited “Nazi symbols and attributes” to include symbols used to denote support for the opposition. Although the “Pahonia” coat of arms emblem was on a registry of the government’s historic and cultural symbols, the government expressed hostility toward protesters who carried red and white flags or the Pahonia symbol, and security forces detained demonstrators or any individual for doing so, as these symbols were generally identified with the opposition.
Authorities severely limited access to information, closed independent outlets, and penalized any independent journalist who published information critical of the government. The government had shut down virtually all independent media outlets and severely limited operations of the regional media in the country. By law, the government could close a publication – printed or online – after two warnings in one year for violating a range of restrictions on the press. Regulations also gave authorities arbitrary power to prohibit or censor reporting. The Ministry of Information could, by law, suspend periodicals or newspapers for three months without a court ruling.
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