Argentina - 2019 Election
Argentina is a federal constitutional republic. Mauricio Macri won election to the presidency in 2015 in multiparty elections the media and various nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) described as generally free and fair. The country held midterm elections in October 2017 for one-third of the Senate and one-half of the Chamber of Deputies.
Argentina's next presidential and national elections are in October 2019, making Argentine president Mauricio Macri's commitment to austerity potentially very costly. Macri saw his approval rating fall below 40% in mid-2018 as his government embraced IMF austerity. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) pledged its "full support" for Argentina on 31 august 2018 as the country sought to overcome an ongoing economic crisis that has prompted a world-record interest rate hike and seen the value of the peso plunge to a record low against the dollar.
In May, a survey of more than 1,000 people by Argentine pollsters D'Alessio Irol/Berensztein revealed that 75 percent of respondents felt seeking assistance from the Washington, DC-based IMF was problematic. In May 2018, a survey of more than 1,000 people by Argentine pollsters D'Alessio Irol/Berensztein revealed that 75 percent of respondents felt seeking assistance from the Washington, DC-based IMF was problematic.
It would not take a hard-core Peronist to sell a narrative that Argentina’s new pro-business elites in government failed both the working and middle classes. The peso, high inflation and high-interest rates will be enough of an example unless the peso turns the corner.
The context of the talks with the IMF was summarized by Bloomberg on 02 September 2018: “Macri is in a pinch to please investors by cutting spending, while ensuring that the belt-tightening austerity doesn’t cause social upheaval ahead of next year’s election.”
The corruption case known as “Notebook-gate” had become the front line of the government’s political offensive against ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who was leading the polls ahead of the 2019 elections. Kirchner’s vice-president, Amado Boudou, was sentenced in August 2018 to six years in prison in a different corruption case, while the “Notebook-gate” scandal that began on 01 August 2018 had already involved 26 arrests, 17 plea bargains, 70 raids and 52 subpoenas. Kirchner herself appeared twice in court and has had her apartments searched.
This case is based on eight diaries written by a chauffeur of a former top official under Kirchner’s Ministry of Federal Planning, including details on numerous pick-ups and deliveries of bags with millions of dollars in alleged kickbacks, even to the residences of the Kirchners.
The enormous corruption network revealed pushed the Peronist factions led by Senator Miguel Angel Pichetto and former presidential candidate Sergio Massa further away from Kirchnerism. However, Fernández de Kirchner responded by approaching Hugo and Pablo Moyano, who lead the Truckers’ Union, as well as a large faction of the main trade-union central CGT, and the Multisector F21 movement (MF21). The Moyanos described these talks “as a first step after many years of distance from Cristina to explore the possibility of unifying Peronism to come back to power.”
Labor unions and social groups blocked streets in downtown Buenos Aires on 12 September 2018 to protest austerity measures proposed by the government and backed by the International Monetary Fund to reduce Argentina’s debt. Argentine leader Mauricio Macri claims he needs to carry out such measures to regain investors’ confidence by reducing the country’s spending.
Having signed a US$50 billion standby financing deal with the IMF in June 2018, the slide in the peso prompted Macri’s administration to pledge deeper spending cuts to secure an early release of funds. The cuts incited thousands to protest. University teachers were on strike for three weeks demanding higher wages until over half of the universities reached an agreement with the government.
Macri's popularity had fallen in recent months before elections in October, when he will seek a second term. Much of Argentina came to a standstill on 29 May 2019 as opponents of President Mauricio Macri launched a 24-hour strike to protest government austerity measures in response to inflation that has reached 55 percent over the past year. The cuts were initiated as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $56 billion (€50 billion) package of emergency loans.
The main ticket opposing Argentine President Mauricio Macri in elections scheduled for October struck a formal alliance on 12 June 2019 with Sergio Massa, a key centrist political figure. The move helped presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez, a former cabinet chief, and vice presidential candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, widen their appeal to centrist voters. A relative moderate, Massa took third in Argentina's last presidential contest in 2015. The move comes one day after center-right Macri chose a moderate Peronist candidate, Miguel Pichetto, as his running mate in a similar gesture toward centrist voters.
Argentines had their first chance on 11 August 2019 to head to the ballot boxes in a high-stakes presidential primary race in which they must choose between staying the course of painful austerity measures or a return to interventionist economics. The country's main political parties had already chosen their nominees, so the primary election, known locally as the PASO, served as the first concrete measure of voter sentiment. Party primaries are closely watched in Argentina because they are held simultaneously and voting is obligatory, so they are seen as referendum on candidates' popularity - effectively an early poll involving the entire electorate , since the country’s main political parties have already chosen their nominees.
Argentines sent a resounding message of rejection of Macri's handling of the country's economy. With 87% of polling station results counted, Macri's center-left rival Alberto Fernandez led with 47.5% of the vote, followed by Macri, who garnered a little more than 32%. Centrist former Finance Minister Roberto Lavagna came in at a distant third with just 8.3 %. If Fernandez were to obtain such a result in October's presidential election, he would become president, as Argentina's electoral law dictates that 45% is enough for an outright victory, avoiding a run-off. Fernandez can also avoid a run-off if he wins with 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over his closest challengers.
In the thick of the campaign season, Argentine women have donned green handkerchiefs, a symbol of the country’s abortion rights movement. They have dressed as Eva Péron, Argentina’s iconic former first lady, to commemorate the suffragette movement anniversary and put a spotlight on a feminist agenda. The green handkerchief wave has proved that many female and young voters remain concerned about reproductive rights even if some of their politicians would rather steer clear of the acrimonious debates the issue sparks in Argentina. Conservative, pro-business President Mauricio Macri, who’s running for a second term, could not risk alienating his traditional support base by bringing up the issue. His biggest rival, centre-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, hoping to ride on the green scarf wave, has said he is in favour of legalising abortion in the long term. Kirchner was a senator in 2018 and voted favor of legalising abortion. But during her tenure as Argentina’s president, from 2007 to 2015, she refused to open the debate.
As Argentina went to the polls, the economy topped the agenda of voter concerns in a country that has slid into a recession. With a recession of 2.5 percent in 2018, a 53.5 percent inflation rate in September 2019, and an official unemployment rate of 10.6 percent, incumbent Macri is in serious trouble in the presidential race. Polls show that Fernandez and his running mate, ex-president Cristina Kirchner, is very likely to obtain the 45 percent of votes needed to secure an outright victory in the first round. In the August primaries, Fernandez snapped up 49.5 percent of the vote, compared to just 33 percent for Macri. Polls indicate the Fernandez-Kirchner ticket lead has since grown.
As the candidates needed 45 percent of the vote to avoid a second round, the 47 percent obtained by the Fernandez-Fernandez ticket was enough to give them the win. With almost 90 percent of votes counted, Argentinian opposition progressive ticket Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner won over right-wing incumbent President Mauricio Macri with 47,75 over 40,76 percent respectively in the general elections.
The economy had taken center stage with the country in the grip of recession for most of the past year, the outlook for growth darkening, annual inflation over 50 percent, job numbers down and poverty up sharply. The conservative incumbent won backers with plans to reform Argentina's notoriously closed economy with trade deals and a successful push to lure foreign investment into energy projects and infrastructure. Voters also chose presidential candidates, along with deputies, senators, governors and local leaders. While, the Front of All candidate for governor of Buenos Aires' province, one of the most important of the country and key for general elections, also won with over 10 points over Macri’s candidate Maria Eugenia Vidal.
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