Algeria - 2021 Election - National Assembly
In Algeria, it is still very difficult to imagine a scenario in which a party wins the majority against the wishes of the military. It is even more improbable that, following the election, the power dynamics in Algeria will change so far as to allow any political actor or body to challenge or check the military’s significant powers. Consequently, it is highly unlikely for the June 12 election to instigate any real change in the country.
On 20 March 2020, for the first time in over a year, the streets of the Algerian capital were quiet and almost empty on Friday, the day of weekly anti-government rallies. The coronavirus threat put paid to what would have been the 57th straight Friday of "Hirak" anti-regime protests since February 22, 2019, leaving mainly policemen, most wearing masks, out on the streets. Authorities in Algeria, which has suffered 10 deaths from the new coronavirus and reported 90 confirmed cases of the disease sweeping the globe, have banned marches, while the opposition itself has suspended rallies.
The coronavirus pandemic emptied streets once packed with millions of anti-government protesters, while authorities continue a campaign of intimidation and arrests. Some predicted the pandemic, which now leaves Algeria with Africa’s biggest reported death toll, may unravel the largely peaceful Hirak protest movement born early in 2019. Yet other analysts believe, paradoxically, that COVID-19 could see it emerge stronger than ever. “The Hirak is taking charge of the health crisis,” said Anissa Daboussi, Middle East and North African program officer for the Paris-based International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH). “Once again, civil society is offering the answers, not the state.”
Algerian President Abelmadjid Tebboune set June 12 for early legislative elections, the presidency said on 11 March 2021, after announcing the dissolution of the lower house of parliament in February. The vote is part of political reforms promised by Tebboune following mass protests that forced his predecessor, Abelaziz Bouteflika, to resign in 2019 after two decades in power.
Algerians in November 2020 voted for amendments to the constitution giving more powers to the prime minister and parliament, despite low voter turnout. Bouteflika's allies had an overwhelming majority in the dissolved lower house which was elected in May 2017 for five years. Elected in December 2019, Tebboune has vowed to implement political and economic changes in a bid to put an end to the protest movement which demanded the departure of the whole ruling elite.
In another effort to satisfy protesters, Algeria’s government finalised a new electoral bill 07 March 2021 aimed at limiting corruption and giving voters more choice. The last legislative election, in 2017, was marred by financial scandals that eventually sent several top officials to prison. The Hirak protest movement pushed out Tebboune’s predecessor in 2019 after 20 years in power, but activists say the changes so far to Algeria’s opaque, military-dominated power structure had only been cosmetic.
Campaigning to choose new lawmakers began on 21 May 2021 for the many hopefuls — 1,483 candidates’ lists, with 646 representing political parties and 837 independents, including young people and women. Hirak supporters, including parties from the so-called “democratic movement,” have vowed to boycott the June 12 legislative elections.
Protesters continued to regularly take to the streets, this time demanding a complete overhaul of the political system, which – notably – would involve the distancing from the political sphere of the country’s all-powerful military. The Hirak movement’s protests largely came to a halt in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the protests returned with full force in February 2021, after the country managed to bring the outbreak under relative control.
In recent months, the economic fallout from COVID-19 and the fall in oil prices led to a rise in unemployment and a significant decrease in the buying power of Algerians, heightening further protests. The government’s recent crackdown on dissenting voices, including members of the Hirak movement, also increased unrest.
The military leadership, which is unwilling to concede to the public’s demands for a truly civil and democratic state, has attempted to contain the unrest through varying levels of repression as well as political tactics such as a constitutional amendment in 2020. And the upcoming snap legislative election is another effort by the military-controlled regime to ease tensions.
About 24 million eligible voters were called to vote on 12 June 2021 to elect a new lower house of parliament for a five-year mandate. There are 1,483 electoral lists; 646 of these were submitted by political parties and 837 by independents. Of the 22,554 candidates, 10,468 are from political parties while 12,086 are independent. The number of independent candidates is higher than that of candidates from political parties – a first in Algeria’s history.
Given that they are viewed as pro-regime and are considered by the popular movement to be partly responsible for the ongoing political and economic crises, established parties such as the National Liberation Front (FLN) and the Democratic National Rally (RND) will probably earn fewer votes than they did in the 2017 legislative election. Whether they will lose their share of influence in parliament, however, will depend on the performance of other, smaller parties. Especially, the performance of Algeria’s Islamist parties will likely determine the makeup of the next parliament and government.
Islamist parties have long been struggling to win popular support in Algeria. In 1992, the military dismantled the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), an Islamist political party, when it became clear that it was on course to win the general election. The move triggered a bloody civil war, which lasted until 2002, and caused an estimated 200,000 deaths. The legacy of this bloody civil war pushed Islamists to the margins of Algeria’s political sphere, leaving them without much opportunity to reclaim power.
Islamist parties may still struggle to seize this moment of opportunity and maximise their votes. Throughout their election campaigns, Islamist parties tried to appeal to non-Islamist and less radical voters. This may cause them to lose the support of some of their core voters, namely “radical Islamists”, in the upcoming election. Furthermore, some Islamist parties have expressed their desire to work with the regime to bring about change, which could result in them losing the support of voters who want the regime’s departure. These parties may also be hurt by the very fact that they have not rejected these elections or have been in government in the past.
The Movement of Society and Peace (MSP) which is allied with the Muslim Brotherhood – whose leader Abderrazak Makri recently said his party is ready to govern and has good relations with the authorities – has continuously participated in government between 1997 (Algeria’s first post-civil war parliamentary elections) and 2011. The head of the El-Binaa party, Abdelkader Bengrina, who came second behind Tebboune in the 2019 presidential election, meanwhile, used his campaign platform to call for reconciliation and moving past the civil war.
These parties may still earn enough votes to lead the lower chamber of parliament. However, they are unlikely to pursue the radical reform agenda sought by the Hirak movement. Thus, they do not constitute a threat to the regime. In fact, President Tebboune recently said he is not bothered by these parties’ moderate Islamic ideology and that he is ready to work with them. Therefore, if Islamist parties end up forming Algeria’s new government, they would most likely be in a similar position to neighboring Morocco’s Justice and Development Party, which was previously in opposition but has since bowed to the regime.
The National Liberation Front (FLN), long the country’s biggest political party, won the most seats in the parliamentary election, the head of the electoral authority said 15 June 2021. However, its 105 seats were far short of the 204 needed to secure a majority in the 407-seat parliament, with the Islamist Movement of Society for Peace (MSP) party winning 64 seats and independent candidates winning 78 seats. However, the turnout was estimated after the vote at 30 percent with the Hirak pro-democracy protest movement boycotting the elections, as did the traditional opposition parties.
On 30 June 2021, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune appointed former Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor Aymen Benabderrahmane to succeed Abdelaziz Djerad. Benabderrahmane's appointment was something of a surprise. But only something, because while he was not on anyone's shortlist, the candidate that ultimately gets tapped for the job is never on anyone's shortlist.
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