Zimbabwe - Military in Politics
Zimbabwe's military has no say on who should take over from President Robert Mugabe, the country's army commander said 13 NOvember 2016, as tension mounted within the ruling party over who will succeed Africa's oldest leader. Mugabe, 92, has held power since the country gained independence from Britain in 1980. But he was increasingly looking frail, stoking a scramble in ZANU-PF to succeed him. Local media said some top military generals and a group within ZANU-PF were backing Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa to succeed Mugabe. Another faction was widely believed to be maneuvering to impose Mugabe's wife Grace as a possible successor.
Lieutenant-General Valerio Sibanda, the Zimbabwe National Army Commander, told the state-owned Sunday Mail newspaper that the military should not get involved. "In Zanu-PF the military has no role to play in terms of succession politics, and that is the long and short of it," he said, in his first comments on the succession issue. In December 2015, Mugabe warned against the country's military generals and other security services supporting different candidates, saying it could ruin ZANU-PF. Opposition parties accuse military commanders, who fought in the 1970s independence war, of working hard to ensure ZANU-PF remains in power.
The security forces are widely seen as President Robert Mugabe’s last line of defense in the face of growing opposition and dissent. Experts say the involvement of the military in forging an internal political solution is critical. The military in Zimbabwe has unique political and economic roles and could be pivotal in ensuring an eventual peaceful transition of power both as a kingmaker and as guarantor of an orderly process.
Speaking at a Southern African Political Economy Series (SAPES) policy dialogue forum in Harare to discuss a report by Chatham House titled The Domestic and External Implications of Zimbabwe’s Economic Reform and Re-engagement Agenda, one of the co-authors of the document, Knox Chitiyo, said the military remains a key pillar in the country’s political matrix. “I think the military will remain one of the key players in Zimbabwe politics whether we like it or not,” Chitiyo said last Wednesday. “Whether we think it is a good thing or not, the military will be one of the key players. We need to engage with the military in terms of trying to stabilise the economy and in trying to stabilise the policy areas.”
The military leadership is the fundamental impediment to meaningful political reform. Leaders understand that political change would likely result in loss of their positions. In March 2008, Mugabe was reportedly ready to retire after a humiliating loss. Chiwenga and others, concerned for their own hides, convinced him to fight on; and then orchestrated the reign of violence that resulted in Mugabe's "reelection" in June. Similarly, they oppose full compliance with the GPA, since that could lead to fair elections and the concomitant defeat of ZANU-PF. Their obvious concern is that, stripped of the protection of ZANU-PF, they would be subject to prosecution for a variety of offenses ranging from crimes against humanity, to human rights violations, to common crimes.
Prime Minister and MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai realized the importance of the military problem. He and others in his party had discussed the possibility of a buy-out and amnesty. While there are those who believed the benefits of removing the military from service would be worth almost any cost, including immunity, many Zimbabweans who remember well Gukurahundi and other atrocities would certainly oppose any deal. Chiwenga and others consider themselves liberation heroes, and looked down upon Tsvangirai for not having participated in the struggle. MDC-T does not have a representative and interlocutor that can talk to Chiwenga and his military colleagues about making the NSC a functioning body and about such issues as amnesty.
Top military leaders existed in a symbiotic relationship with Mugabe. They need him in order to maintain their positions and have the protection of the party. He needs them in order to intimidate and threaten would-be challengers, and to perpetuate the climate of fear which has enabled him to rule seemingly in perpetuity. The military and party may gradually meld together. By 2009 at least 20 generals and colonels are in a three-year program at the University of Zimbabwe to obtain a B.A. in international relations, and 12 generals were in a one-year international relations masters program.
The military had a tradition of internal discipline and adherence to the hierarchy. But below top military leadership, the military reflected the ethnic divisions and rivalries that exist in ZANU-PF. For example, there is resentment on the part of higher-level Karanga officers that their advancement had been stymied by the Zezuru top echelon. Younger officers without liberation credentials, regardless of their ethnicity, are likewise held back by a promotion ceiling, imposed by ageing veterans of the independence struggle who do not trust the younger generation and have no plans for the future. There are recurring reports of dissatisfaction over pay and conditions; and desertions are reportedly on the rise. So far, however, military leadership has kept the lid on, and there is no expectation the military will soon fracture.
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